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Often times in drops the futures trade at a discount to fair value
IMO it is the ST implied extra risk. When market kept rising during bull market there was added premium for next futures expiration date not the discount.
I guess I was expecting some bursts of buying during the day and some reasonable number of advancers but with that flat trin it was pretty much indicates it was net selling of 3 out of 4 stocks 3/4 of the time today.
With domestic and international investors heavy into selling US market, it will be hard to envision a bottom without some extrinsic event like more effective coordinated international governmental action prop the dollar to get back to old model of chasing stocks to reinflating the equity bubble. I don't think we are going that way.
It is going to change how stocks are going to be valued. With increasing compression of P/Es, less IPO's and careful analysis of levels of debt on the books. It is going hard not to play the short side when there are so many candidates that still fit one or more of these criteria. CMCSK EXPE UVN and NVDA all look like going to be single digit stocks if fund redemptions continues to be name of the game.
I was looking at S&P futures at CME and saw that DEC futures were off 6 to 790 vs SEP off 3 to 793.
I am not an expert on futures but would that imply that they are thinking that things will get worse by DEC therefore the lower price.
BS we are being misled. No way trin was near 1.
Declining volume and declining issues trailed 5/1
http://finance.yahoo.com/m0?u
NYSE AMEX Nasdaq Bulletin Board
Advancing Issues 574 178 809 512
Declining Issues 2,734 614 2,756 861
Unchanged Issues 142 3 5 527
Total Issues 3,450 795 3,570 1,900
New Highs 12 9 13 21
New Lows 728 180 428 124
Up Volume 469,031,488 4,735,160 741,666,496 97,984,832
Down Volume 1,948,296,320 321,782,528 1,835,001,472 292,127,520
Unchanged Volume 18,371,910 2,260,300 23,788,882 94,774,896
Total Volume 2,414,808,064 328,777,984 2,600,456,704 484,887,232
JPM's fall today was related as much to rumors of derivative problems
AIG down 5 to 51 is in same deriviate boat.
mine is about half an hour to 45 minutes. Then you have to start shutting down.
I got a bunch of 2200 VA APCC units at an auction cheap and replaced the batteries. I put each on it own server and it keeps a standard P3 server up for at least 6-10 hours.
with C and JPM down 15-20 percent for much of the day.
If you wanted to buy long calls on BKX, you yould need BKX to rally to 675 -695 depending on what option you bought to break even.
They are theives but high premiums IMO means that upside move has some potential. If it was going down, why would they reward you with high bids for short sellers.
NYSE trin to flat for me to believe there is major selling maybe shorting.
It not following the look for S&P being off 2.5%
They real bastards on SNDK options. You pretty much got a position that should go to zero but you not going to find any gift prices from these guys unless SNDK goes to $13.
Looks like rally fizzling out.
I got closing S&P 807 as significant to be heading in right direction(rally). What's your best guess on what's necessary besides buyers in turning tide of downturn.
I still got short SNDK AUG 15 CALLs and short AUG 12.5 PUT that I received $3 for pair. I will trade up short PUTS to $15 if you make SNDK bust a move <vbg>
Closed the last of bank short positions on GS. Let the rally begin. No trumpets have to be played but a got a little whistle somewhere I could blow.
The pain for me is if we keep going down. I have neem buying back short calls taking any profits against paper losses on long positions. I am assuming a bounce of at least 10%.
I am still long from yesterday and not shorting out if we hold S&P 800. I take any additional lumps for being bullish tomorrow. This downturn is not going to do well for consumer or business spending.
Therefore, look for more of same downwards major sector by sector haircuts if shorts can't be chased. They will not need much incentive to short just abnout any stock since job cut announcements are increasing.
With the banks index within close proximity of Japanese and LTCM crisis lows of 90's, I would have expected worse with overall market. C, JPM, GS etc either got to let a series of bad news cats out of bag by 8/14 or we are due for a rally.
Uncertainty is keeping up down and that statement from me who is bearish and not looking for anything more then short covered/chasing rally. This relentless grinding is the shorts now is similar in reverse to what the bulls did in bubble period.
I am very bad with typos. I said assume instead of assumed. I really feel that BKX going below 600 and maybe lower.
It is clear from the prices of DYN CPN WMB that losses from energy, telecom, inet and now housing bubble will cause bank more problems then they ever imagined yesterday.
I assume that worst was over for banks. BKX at 653 off 30 pts indicates that ENE WCOM trouble has yet to be felt to its fullest. Citigroup revelations today are most troubling of all.
The bottom now requires IMO banks to retest 1998 lows of below 600 in BKX.
So much for any meaningful dead cat bounce.
Everything that dies one day comes back.
I may be true about market but not Asbury Park real estate prices.
I think everyone is readay for rally. S&P and NDX futures up
Now S&P up 6 NDX 8
This goose is totally overcooked and pretty unpalitable but it is ready to be served.
Keep playing techie. There is a reason they don't pay you.
I looked at ap wire for news that may have sent market downhill this afternoon. And it's most likely boobie opening his mouth again. Here's our stock insider and director President claiming ignorance about market. Good try o distance himself from excesses of 90's.
Bush Says Economy Is Strong
By RON FOURNIER
AP White House Correspondent
ARGONNE, Ill. (AP) — President Bush had no advice for investors as the stock market gyrated wildly Monday — ``I'm not a stock broker or a stock picker' — but he said the economy is strong and corporate profits are improving.
``You're talking to the wrong guy about what stocks to buy,' the president said in a brief exchange with reporters at a national lab involved in homeland defense.
His remarks mixed optimism, skepticism and even bewilderment about Wall Street as stocks again fell sharply — reflecting the struggle by Bush and his economic team to respond to tumbling markets.
Only solace I can see is that large caps didn't go all the way down LOD prices, we get to revisit that territory tomorrow.
IMO we are going up from here. If this is the best the short can do since 2 PM, upside has chance of taking hold.
Folks who have been hurt in the US by falling marts are out looking for opportunity, not handouts and welfare. And we will continue to be optimists
Let's roll and kick some butt but first we got to put some lipstick on this pig. <g>
Nervously long
That is why US will still be best safe haven for investors. Go take those dollar IOU's we are handing out and convert them into Euros and YEN and try to find good investments outside US. Regardless how break US situation is it will be far better then 99% markets IMO.
Do you think we crawl above Friday's closing values or do we get another day at new 5 year lows on major averages.
Just bought AUG 800 for $54. Talk about insane exhuberence.
I PM you some stories when I get the time. Right now I am long S&P calls.
I am 46 and race relations in our house growing up didn't refer to backs and whites or Paleitians and Jews. <g>
Trying to get some SPX calls long asa we speak
It's the Sicilian blood in me.
I am suspicious, worried, anxious because of my 50% Sicilian blood. However, it's the remaining 50% Irish blood that makes me worry because it wants to bet it all long <g
I took 1/2 profits on short calls. I am standing pat until close to close to decide to commit on long side. I am not going to establish new short positions until is see new signs of irrational selling.
I take for advise on housing stocks with a great deal of respect.
Is this drop in S&P medium term fatal condition like it looks or is some minor pedaling off of stock that will straighten itself by tomorrow.
RE GBR
How does one get themselves out of thinly traded stock without taking a haircut
Shorted some GS at the open today..
Thanks for getting awake from my morning sleepiness. I joined you on short side by selling calls AUG 75.
What do you think of support levels for KBH. I got to decide ro ride this guy down with more short calls at 45 or hedge with short PUTs at 40.
I mean openings as in residences to live in not workers. I am sorry if I said openings rather then occupancies.
I noticed on way into work today a sign advertising immediate openings at a large assisted living condominium development associated with a Christian sect. In last 5 years since it has been open, I never remember seeing this type of sign.
The way pensioners net worth was been going it sounded to me like not your average turnover situation.
PS Bank Index getting to crisis mode at 700.
PPS trinq on esignal still bullish sub 0.5 contrary to today's trading. Does anybody have same measure of trin for NDX. WCOME should not be a part of NDX anymore.
I counted 134 separate 144 forms filed at SEC.gov site by GS insiders to sell in last 3 weeks.
Is there anything I don't know that would change my perception that GS is going in the crapper.
PS futures down 11
Actually, thank heavens for the shorts. Someone has to buy this market!..
Welcome to IHUB. It is going to nice to n+1 people with a good sense of humor on the thread.
On the financial side, Andrew Mellon was Secretary of Treasury for the whole decade. He was also one of the original founders of ALCOA - the Aluminum Company of America - exactly where our Treasury Secretary of 2002 - Paul O'Neill - is from. And O'Neill is spookily sounding a lot like his predecessor of the 20s!
"Mellon wasn't available so O'Neill would do" is I guess the way papa bush told W to pick Treasury Secretary. <g>
UPS, ERTS, EBAY, GS Prudential & 2 others now in S&P.