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There tending to defend 88x on S&P on all this bad news.
MF outflows are still haunting us. There got to be a time in next 2 weeks where additional purging of sell requests happen unless they can convince enough people to go clown long under false assumption that economy is getting better. The economy is bad but getting better is in the eye of the beholder.
Any feelings. I can't believe that NDX is trading at 7/23-7/25 intraday levels again. One could expect major rally if you just looked at charts like Larry D does.
AT&T has his line messed up,
We have AT&T DSL and our firewall reports wave after wave of spurious traffic coming at us not from AT&T customers online but from internal AT&T internet servers themselves. They are pretty bad and the scary thing they may be the ones surviving the ISP shakeout. That is what happens when you buy the MSFT story hook, line and sinker.
ADBE fell today it is only time before they come to get MSFT and we will be much closer to bottom in market.
I commented on plight of state pension funds and it's implications on market.
Please limit your political only comments to that other thread.
The double dip is here. The only question I have is when do we revisit lows of last week and do we go lower. I am not a clown long. I am just a long established last WED and this scares the living daylights out of me that I may have to cut bait from the lowest of lows. I understand the pain from any one still thinking that this is the bottom and it only gets better form here.
It goes along with my thinking at only ones "paraded" will be from states of the union that voted for other guy.
The real problem is that AG's from states that didn't vote for other guy have no large number of retired state employees dependent on the value and integrity of the states pension plan assets.
On another OT point, if Congressional elections are going to be bad for the Republicans, Homeland defense will become safe haven for all those political hacks that may have to leave government service otherwise. You did notice that under the guise of eliminating civil service rules pay scales were thrown out as well. I think it would be a privilege to serve my country at government pay scales.
They won't be expensing options though.
That is partly why GDP numbers for last 2 years were revised down. 2000 by $ 80 B 2001 by $30 B.
I look to the ^RUT and it had a bad day beginning to end,
DOW, S&P and Wilshire all have same profile for day. Up.
Shorted my favorite stock EXPE
Since I closed my last short on NVDA this morning. I need a new favorite. <g>
EXPE may be it.
I think you were spot on considering going short today. I still see DEC NDX futures selling for deep discount to SEP.
The double dip becomes official on next revision of Q2 GDP. If someone doesn't comment form knowledge on this date, I will try to find it on web later today.
we will be in Bull confirmed status..
I think with no particular sector apparently leading market out of doldrums and a Congress that is going too agree on some drug coverage package, I believe drugs and biotechs will assume on that market leadership role very shortly. Amgen's been upgraded everywhere and why shouldn't be one of the stocks to revisit its 52 W highs.
Markets surely not going to be led by INTC and NVDA <g
NVDA getting taken apart even with a dose of short covering. Down $3.5 @ $12.75
It will be analysts recommending anything but tech to keep market that wants to rally going higher.
I hate to throw cold water on your 20% growth! for CREE but this is a company that lost $1.22 for the year using GAAP. I like the story but when do they stop looking like MOT, JDSU and LU in terms of writeoffs.
They gave up 1/2 of gains today in AH. I repeat I like the story but they got to report some cash profits soon. Their cash on books dropped from $200 M to $100 M. That really hurts.
In a pinch, you can grow stuff to eat on it. ... Of course, my ancestors came from Sicily
How are the tomatoes going this year. In NJ, we finally got the hot humid weather and we are started to get lots of tomatoes. <g
Seriously,
12:30 is a strange time for reversal. Is 900 S&P firn resistance or can GE $30.95 continue to lead us out of lows of June.
Large caps distinctively negative today. It is the Q stocks with higher B being played up today. It would hard to believe that Naz traders would much on the table if weakness continues today. It seems that an afternoon reversal would seal shorts fate since it would look like some broadening of the market advance as leaders will be hard pressed to hang on to the recent gains.
Last but not least volume will always be misleading because after WCOM is delisted you will always have other stocks like Q and WMB to play with even if they are on NYSE.
Any idea how far equities will go as bonds weaken. I see from 30 yr bond and S&P charts that from 3/1 to 3/22 bonds weakened and S&P rallied from 1080 to 1180 where it tumbled at end of March nearly constantly until last week. Everyone is expecting a tumble this fall but IMO we may have 1-2 weeks upside in equities as bonds continue to weaken.
Some supporting info from Yahoo today.
"This is the beginning of the Treasury market's reassessment of the whole situation," said Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist at Banc One Capital Markets. "And in view of the growing realization that stocks may have hit bottom, the Treasury market is backing up."
Karydakis said when stocks have a down day, Treasuries will pick up some gains. But he said the day-to-day fluctuations would not matter if investors concluded that stocks have fallen as far as they will go.
An announcement expected Wednesday on the Treasury's August debt sales was also a negative for bonds. Treasury is expected to announce it will sell $22 billion of new five-year paper and $15 billion of benchmark 10-year notes the following week, according to Wrightson Associates.
Treasury may also announce it will go to quarterly 10-year note sales to meet its rising borrowing needs, ditching its practice of regularly reopening these issues.
The Treasury said on Monday it would have to borrow $76 billion in the period between July and September and another $71 billion between October and December.
GDP on Wednesday 8:30 am.Wait to see how they spin it.
Housing part of GDP, autos part of GDP, Homeland defense part of GDP I believe.
I think treasury refinancing numbers could affect markets today but everyone is way way too happy except the shorts.
845 was minor resistance on S&P; 885 is same IMO. As long as they are going to reinflate banks to pre crisis levels shorting the S&P is futile. GE, a big lender up 7.5%, BKX up 5.0%.
I wish I had some salient information to tell you it is sure thing to short S&P.
Watching for 1333 area to stalk some shorts
You have to been pretty careful about setting up shorts. We were a whole lot higher 3 weeks ago. I am sure not going to get into market timing.
Cash seems to be showing up from under the mattresses. When it goes back into mattresses is not my ballywick.
And I thought it was safe to enter the water. Qwest going down tommorrow.
NDX futures down 2 now
Qwest will restate results
Company admits improper accounting
By CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 9:54 PM ET July 28, 2002
DENVER (CBS.MW) -- Qwest Communications said Sunday that it would restate financial results for 1999 through 2001 due to the use of improper accounting methods.
The local telephone company, which already is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Department of Justices, withdrew its financial forecasts for 2002 and said all areas of its business have been affected by weakness in the telecommunication sector and regional economies as well as competition.
The company, based in Denver, provides services to residential and business customers in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington and Wyoming. In 2001, Qwest acquired US West.
Qwest said in a news release Sunday that is has improperly accounted for about $1.1 billion in optical capacity sales for 1999, 2000 and 2001, as well as for sales of some communications equipment. Qwest is examining its accounting practices and procedures and may have to restate all optical capacity sales.
"Most of these things are going to deal with timing," Qwest's chief financial officer, Oren Shaffer, said in an interview with The Associated Press Sunday night. "Should this have been in this period or in another period."
The restatement of Qwest's financial statements will also include adjustments for three deals in connection with about $283 million in sales of communications equipment in 2000 and 2001, the company said. The company said revenue and profit in those transactions were incorrectly recognized upfront and should be deferred.
Qwest also said its auditor, KPMG, will not be able to finalize its review of the second-quarter financial report.
Qwest officials could not be reached for comment late Sunday, but the AP reported they declined to estimate the effect of the revenue adjustment or when a possible restatement of the revenues would be completed.
"We would rather it happen sooner than later, and we have a great sense of urgency," Qwest chief executive Dick Notebaert told the AP. "But we do want to do it with diligence. We do imagine it will take months and not days."
Qwest said it would miss the Aug. 14 deadline set by the SEC for companies to certify the accuracy of their financial statements. The SEC is investigating Qwest's fiber-optic capacity swaps with Global Crossing, Enron and others in 2000 and 2001.
Shares of Qwest (Q: news, chart, profile) dropped 11 cents on Friday to end at $1.50.
Two points:
1)Some good historical vix info.
http://www.cboe.com/MktData/vix.asp#vix
2) I have seen twice that S&P futures data for DEC lower by several points then SEP data. About 1/2 hr ago DEC S&P future was down 17 at 837 while SEP S&P future was up 1 @ 854. Right now DEC is 2.5 pts lower. Still leads to my conclusion that market going to go down significantly some time soon otherwise people would be paying a premium for DEC contract.
Windows XP eats memory 384 MB is just about pratical minimum to run; 512 MB is good working amount; anything beyond that is overkill IMO.
It is stable as hell I rarely reboot and my 4 yr old daughter did wilding act on keyboard last night and made it go in to suspend mode. All I did was restart and it came back to where I was.
I would not download any extra patches from MSFT then what you understand from reading the description they provide. If you don't understand what it going to do not download unless you are willing to enable last known good option. I downloaded some Office security patches about 2 weeks ago and I was fiddling with IE security options for about an hour before I could get ability to go to secure sites again. Their patchs then to be heavy handed and screw up non MSFT software like Netscape and competitors office suites.
SSB downgraded it today. I will have to get copy of research report to see if they have any valid points against it.
I am impressed by increasing sales. The speed and size of semiconductor devices goes up the need for their products does as well.
I am trying to stay away form the high Betas day trader stocks when I think quality issues like AMNGN JNJ MRK are going to go up so what more do I need to swing trade. Stuff like TYC V KRB NVDA ZRAN are getting harder to figure if they are worth closer to $10 or $20. The easy short money is over we getting some choppy trading that I can't effectively day trade so I looking for less bumpy names that have been beat up.
IRF and DUK are what I am moving into today.
I will look at lycos data over the weekend thanks
After seeing all the selloffs of last few weeks, I am much more confident that the worst of the worst is behind us. I have more confidence to grab some quality stocks on the "real" dips. It's 10:30 AM and market is fairly flat. I am going to stay away from market during the day and if near end of day they selloff I will expand a little my long position.
PC space, telecom, energy traders seem to be only sour spots with banks being the whipsaw sector depending on next credit crisis.
Only new element in my just "a tad more bullish" is that existing home sales fell. It implies to me that the affordability of housing has reached a maximum and only way of this affordability index is down. Either wages go up or prices come down. I think we will see both and it can only be good for equities. People will want ot put extra money in equities rather in big house because they will see no possibilty of increase in asset value after expenses and taxes.
I looking at stock market from 1989 to 1991 as some guide of how market may behave in next few months. No matter how low it dips in next few months the market will come back. They have been telling us that over and over as the market has fallen over last 30 months but I finally got the conviction to believe it.
Seriously, I got dim lightbulb went off and I am interesting in charting percentage of time during 32.5 hr week that market is in up trend vs downtrend.
We are guaranteed about 10 hrs of time this week in up channel. Do you know where I can get raw data to create simple chart of per cent of time in down channel; unchanged or up channel. I am sure you could combine it with some sort of dollar volume data to confirm acutal bullish sentiment vs bearish sentiment. Sounds like money flow but I thinking I neeed some sort numberical number per time period to classify if market was going up down
or sideways
We used to have 1:45 Hr rallys now they last almost a day/
I am not going to doubt the effect observed at the points on your chart but I have 3 questions.
1) How much can you trust your chart if earnings are not improving except for cost cutting measures that to better year to year comparisons but can not prop up high valuations.
2) in a inverse bubble period which is primarily marked by asset destruction how much does your chart mean except for indicating marginal reduced selling pressure because chartists are going long while remainder of participants still sucking or withdrawing it's life blood -- assets.
3). Pray tell would you be playing the 5 or 6 high Beta Q or do you have any additional wonder momo stocks to swing trade.
Its easier for the gov to stop the first few dominoes.
So it seems that If you did knowingly included in financial statements much questionable accountancy courtesy of AA, hid details of off balance sheet loans from JPM & C, and so on and your business is located in TX and MS you get off virtually scot free.
However, if you just happen to do lesser dollar sized but equally illegal transgressions and your live in a state that voted for "that other guy" it's time to have CEO parade in front of TV cameras leading to criminal arraignment to bolster investors greed factor to plunk down their last nickel.
QCOM minus -0.02 net. I wonder if they will expense opiotns <g>
Went long MIR and CPN as there clearly was way too much pessism: REI up over 60% today on REAL earnings
I would not touch MIR and CPN as being too extended debt wize. REI is on the boarder line in terms of debt levels that I was considering. I could see you trading for quick buck.
I see DUK as much more financially stable to trade longer term. All energy stocks are depressed the questioin which ones have least risk with some good upside return.
Personally I think Aug 14 brings a firm guarantee to find adequate credit backed by government to any company that is over leveraged but with clean books that is currently profitable. We going to need some sort well defined government assisted private sector bailout plan to get through energy and telecom bailouts before it becomes a cascading thing. Earnings problems at EDS, IBM gobal services just for example for computer support are examples of how quickly we could go in earnings crapper exponentially unless this is nipped in bud.
Da boys in DC know a thing or two about energy companies. W's got bailed out of a tough situaiton in 80's to the point where end result was becoming part owner of baseball team. I see nothing different now for government to help it's struggling affilities if I use baseball analogy which is about as deep as W goes.
I hope your in some sort of agreement with my opinion. I tend not to mince my words. I get that from my father who could eviscerate you with his tongue. Sometimes he would say something that would make you stand there speechless with a feeling in your stomach as if your intestines were hanging out below your waist. <g
My answer runs along my post to Zeev recently about last weeks selloff in tech that is generating additional margin calls not only from people who are overextended from buying equities but those people writing checks from brokerage accounts for whatever reason.
Seriously, how long before negative wealth effect comes back to haunt the market again.
I have had 3 to 4 personal and business situations where stock market downturn has effected me. For example, I bought some collectibles on ebay last Friday night were buyers were as sparse as in stock market during the day. The seller I won a lot from needed to meet margin call tomorrow so he contacted me by phone today to make sure he was paid. I paid him through Paypal this afternoon while he was on phone.
Small business persons who are in the market and either had personal or business real state margined to their equity accounts are in same boat. It is not only Naz gamblers who are getting margin calls it's those people who are using stock market wealth to afford big house or office condos and the like.
You people out there on the thread know what I am talking about.
What is you estimation for double bottom or triple bottom without recovery to hit the market.
Old man O'Neill doesn't make house calls to Wall Street without firm promises that he will get paid. He could be doing better things like sailing on a yatch. <g>
Their calling in tech today. Not many days before they call in banks and drugs.
same old bear pattern....
Trying to follow where dumb money is going to hibernate through the winter. Just about any beat up drug company is going up to previous price points like JNJ, MRK, AMGN, & PFE. Drugs had real test on value and are not coming down IMO.
Techs guaranteed to retest new lows in SEP. It almost AUG now. I wish I had same confidence in banks but they could pull them down anytime.
I been going long in drugs all day. I figure that brokers will get all the grannies that sold last week to buy on this dip. <g>
All doing well and I am staying away from tech and banks long until things feel safe besides this 1 day rally.
This rally looks more real then last 1/2 dozen. I am treating it with respect outside of tech added AMGN long today.
Theonly question do banks backslide of first whiff of trouble.
Rally pretty unimpressive so far.
Bonds are down?? I think they calling on some omre firepower if bonds are selling off.
I think Q could be sacrificed if banks are under additional attack from shorts. BRCM INTC CCMP still negative should give you some idea where PC space is headed.
I donned half of my bear outfit on tech issues since we are giving back some of S&P gains. We are not making any headway from TUES price range.
I added JNJ long to go with MRK and will consider AMGN and UPS soon if cautious investors can safely park money there.
the expensing of Stock option a few months back. It was written up in NYTimes ,SNPS was the worst offender
If by chance the stock should fall precipitiously taking employee options out of the money, the problem of expense against earnings would be reduced. Somehow I think the market could fix this options problem. <g>
Time to cut losses because Da Boys are selling into any rallies...
Declining issues leading advancing issues but up volume outpacing down volume. They give us a rally but they could decide to take it away.