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It is better to have hired this guy before someone else did. He is impressive. Lightwave has signed somebody that can help with developing next generation perkinamine polymers.
Silicon photonics has needed a refresh as the available options have been inefficient in utilizing power. Big companies are talking about utilizing co-packaged optics as a solution. Co-packaged optics allows flexibility in design and importantly moving the ASIC chip (as well as other chips offering other functions) and the optical module (transceiever) closer together which aids power savings compared the old guard of silicon photonics. Designs will be looking at combining components that are meant to work together in a single package. Here is where size will really matter. Smaller modulator chips as part of the optical module will work better in co-packaged optics allowing for the transceiver to fit together better with the other components. Large companies are talking up co-packaged optics ie Broadbom, TSMC, Cisco, Intel.
Lightwaves enhanced modulator chips and transceivers may well have a design in future with these large companies moving to co-packaged optics.
Here is a nice article from Semiconductor Engineering, April 26.2023. Article entitled "New Standards Push Co-Packaged Optics
https://semiengineering.com/new-standards-push-co-packaged-optics/
There is a Dr. Lebby quote at the end of the article.
We have talked about the selling points of using Lightwave's perkinamine polymers for the faster speed, reduced power consumption and small size that will fit easier into finished products but one additional advantage is the roadmap. Dr. Lebby has talked about the ability to use their technology for faster pluggable transceivers as the small size works towards the advantage of adding more OEP enhanced chips into a transceiver package for greater bandwiths. The Roadmap also includes the possibility of new and improved polymers going forward. We have been impressed with Perk 5 which seems to be the best one overall and eagerly await the specs on Perk 6. The larger lab space will allow for many activities including looking at new potential versions of perkinamine as the company has a growing understanding of what makes it such a stable and superconducting material structurally.
Foundries and customers don't want another technology that will become obsolete in a few years. The way it looks that data consumption is going to explode higher with several new data hungry applications which will evolve, become more demanding and the use of these new applications will be used by more and more people. The demanding applications include AI, Lidar, 5G and 6G (which is being studied now) quantum computing, sensing and VR. The industry likely wants the security to know a faster and more adaptable material can be used to design into devices in the future to meet their needs. Lightwave needs to definitely put to rest the doubts about stability and then the company will be off to the races.
Anyone who owns shares would be in tthe cheerleading group. People invest in companies they believe will be successful. It is much more significant when people post negative messages on a message board over and over during the day, every day to try and discredit the company and shareholders posting on the board. You have said often that you want to save new investors from buying into a company that is not truthful about their successes and ability to start earnings. Certainly you have the right to your opinion but doing so daily, numerous times a day practically begging people to read your Red Flag 'Stickie" seems rather desperate and the real underlying effort appears to influence the stock price down by drowning positive sentiment.
In the end it is up to the company to prove they have the goods and to consolidate the final data to justify upcoming contracts. Acording to Dr. Lebby, that will happen soon, before 2024 starts. When needed updates come out, bashers funded by short sellers and traders will need to find some new misinformation to try and magnify the negative prospects of the company. For you and them it will be an uphill climb from there.
No, some of the best ones. There are many others but Rkf, proto and X post often and have, over the past month, been targets of derision and personal insults because they remain positve on Lightwave's future. They continue to share useful information for shareholders and that is why they are targetted. There has been a a group effort by bashers to take over this board with insults, and spreading of disinformation. It appears clearly to minimize the sharing of useful information among shareholders and prospective shareholders.
Unfortunately Rkf because you are a successful investor in LWLG, are optimistic about the future prospects and willing to to talk about that often on the board, you end up being a target for negative posters. You, Proto and X end up getting the brunt of that sh*t lately. All of you are not responsible for the share price and anyone who tries to put any sort of blame on you and other shareholders who express optimism can just eat dirt.
This is great news for Global Foiundries as they are increasing their annual wafer manufacturing capacity by 43% which is huge. It is coming on line just as there is going to be an explosion for the need for more advanced semiconductors in many areas. We have seen how fast TSMC has grown over the years as a contract manufacturer as fabless chip manufacturers have grown and need the manufacturing space. Global Foundries has this coming online while several other large semi manufacturers are scrambling to start building new capacity to meet the growing need.
Global Foundries has been highly suspected as a current partner in development with LWLG. They have built crediibility in the area of silicon photonics and have presented alongside Dr. Lebby in the past. It would be great if GFS is a current partner but we won't know until it is formally announced. As a contract manufacturer GFS is in a great position to take up a lot of business in the area of silicon photonics hopefully with LWLG inside.
Ted, I can't account for the unrealistic exuberance some shareholders may ahve had almost 5 years ago as I wasn't a shareholder then.
As far as the reason for pivoting from manufacturing their own hybrid PICs with polymers inside to working almost exclusively working with foundries as the manufacturing base and collecting license fees and royalties, I cannot give you a link. You ask for links often to have others justify what they say but there is not a link for everything.
The company, as I know you know, had very limited finances and to follow a path of manufacturing on their own was too capital intensive. Expanding their clean room fascilities was near impossible because of that. Competing with foundries all of which were bigger and better funded would have been a slow and brutal process. The company could move much faster with the licensing approach partnered with foundries to use their equipment. A few years ago some foundries were recognizing difficulty improving their silcon photonic offerings so were open to the partnering model. The foundries already had connections and crediibility with customers. Looking back it was a smart way to go for Lightwave if they solved the high volume manufacturing issues at foundries.. Looking at the history it is just logical they took this path. It is a matter of using one's head to understand the why of it. Links are a silly request for you to make as understanding it comes from one's own thinking about how to grow a business while being fiscally responsible and realistic.
You act as if it's a SIN to examine whether the past was deceptive or not - suggesting that we should just accept that they are trying hard and have made progress, and go from there - STARTING with the 2023 roadmap ("why not pullup the 2023 roadmap"). Do you not believe in critical thinking that compares prior messaging with results?
Are you not aware that they BENEFIT from making things sound further along than they really do at YOUR expense, if that is what they choose to do?
While you accuse my desire to look at their past record as deceitful, I see your unwillingness to do that as naive.
Ted, small companies developing technology with limited funds have to be organized, practical, diligent and frugal. If one examines their history they must start with a realistic goal on how to make a marketable product. Before Dr. Lebby became CEO, and had a chance to really look under the hood of the company, they were not very organized as there lacked enough understanding of all the details in integrating polymers into hybrid PICs. They needed a frontline leader with Dr. Lebby's experience to take over as CEO. You referenced an old roadmap that was an attempt by him to offer an outline on what needs to be accomplished. You did not present it that way using it as evidence instead they led shareholders on as far as being further along towards commercialization and yes, that was deceptive.
With Dr. Lebby's help things did change a long the way as research progressed. There is trial and error and builidng on successe and pivoting from problems so there needed to be diligence in finding what worked and what didn't work.
Along the way it became clear their finances were not strong enough to take the go it alone approach and the frugal and practical avenue was putting resources into developing manufacturing of hybrid PICS using polymers within partnering foundries. Market conditions regarding needing more bandwith and lower power consumption changed such that foundries realized they needed some help and were more open to partnering..This led to changes in the roadmap and business plan. The plan in 2021 was quite different from a couple years earlier. This is how small companies will adapt to realities of their limited scale and finances and evolve.. When you pick a quote from management or shareholders from the past to show they were deceptive (which is your frequent message) because it had not yet come to pass (because more work was needed) it comes across as you being deceptive.
Doing this occasionally can be seen as a lack of understanding. Doing so in a daily barrage of similar posts appears deceptive and quite intentional as if there is an agenda.
Index funds like those owned by Blackrock and Vanguard hold shares as long term shareholders. They don't panic and sell when the market may take down the price of an underlying security in a fund. Ownership of LWLG shares benefit from that stability. By having longer term holders of the stock, it provides relative price stability that would otherwise not be there. Companies want institutional ownership for those reasons and so should individual shareholders.
Using 4-5 year old business plans from the company is meaningless at this point. Why not pull up the 2023 roadmap that clarifies much more about what has been accomplished and where the company wants to go. Real planning starts with the plan you referred to, which described current work going on with a roadmap as to where they plan to try and get to. It describes work that has to be done to get to commercialization goals.To suggest they were deceiving shareholders is deceitful in itself. It doesn't refer to finished work at all. This is an example of your technique to take something out of context to try and prove your negative narratives of the company's deception or to counter current shareholder enthusiasm as to real goals that have been met.
You repeatedly refer back to past years to support your negativity. It has no meaning if conditions are different and problems have been solved. How does a novel technology that is so complicated to be developed, that other companies failed at, not take steps through research and development to move to its final goals.. I would remind you of an old saying, "Those that live in the past are doomed to repeat it". Basing the majority of your opinions on old news will relagate you to the past and that would be fine for a lot of us.
"What did I think of China". Nice place to visit way back when. I wouldn't go there now.
I am well aware that there was talk about commercializing for a number of years before Dr. Lebby became CEO. The company had a viable product with potential in the past but management lacked an understanding how to get polymers from the lab into finished products containing their polymers. It was a case of "you don't know what you don't know". Shareholders bought into a penny stock with potential and that often comes with oversized expectations unless you understand the business risks adequately. It takes many years to develop a breakthrough technology that no one else was able to create.Understanding that should be part of investing in small company technology stocks.Shareholders will rely on management to help with managing expectations but you have to keep an open mind to risks that management may not see or emphasize enough. The company had a stable and effective material that looked promising in the past but there was a lot of work that needed to be done but no plan on how to get it ready for the market to want to use it.
Dr. Lebby was brought onto the Board and subsequently became CEO when he knew enough and had a vision on how to get the material ready to be incorporated into chips containing OEPs. He knew the company was not ready and I doubt he was giving guidance on commercializing "next year" as he certainly wasn't doing so since I have been a shareholder over 2 years ago.We got one agreement in May and he has said one or two more in 2023. Since the ASM 2021 he has guided beginning the sales ramp in 2024. As you should know, he accomplished a lot to get the company ready where it is today. He forecasted a dramatic jump in data usage back in 2021 and that forecast is appearing spot on with current information. That was expected to create demand for a new material that can increase speed and lower power use at a time when finally the market was seeing a real need that current materials were unable to match.The need was not as clear a few years ago.
You consistently post complaints and negatives about management including current management. If you are a long term stockholder you must have a nice profit on paper yet you remain so negative.. Perhaps as a long term stockholder, you are tired of waiting and you have not been listening to progress or understand the significance of it as it has unfolded and this colors your view. Then again you could be here to just bash like some of the others.
Thanks for your assessment proto. I think KC thinks the same but when he reads everything that there is to read on any related subject he is bound to question some uncertainty even if it is remote. Anytime we hear some new information from Dr. Lebby on testing or production it is almost always old news. If there is a breakthrough he doesn't run to IR and issue a press release (we should be so lucky). In keeping with the secrecy issue that has been in place for over 2 years anything related to ALD is old news and things are ahead of what is reported. We are very close.
Yes, it does seem as if Dr. Lebby will be proven right when he predicted 2 years ago, 2023 would be the year of customer acceptance with 2024 beginning the ramp into high volume manufacture. Along the way, in presentations, he has not wavered from this. Interim testing he has reported looks great for high volume manufactured samples and final results should be reported soon.
How could he know things would fall into place? How could he know that customers would accept the technology? Prospective customers have likely known about the polymers and their potential for several years. A couple years ago Dr. Lebby said that there was pull from large potential customers and that helped further engagement with foundries. Companies like Microsoft, Google and AWS look well into the future with developing technology as they have prospered by being first movers to gain competitve advantage. These companies look at their volumes at the data centers and project out as to demand for data as new technologies coming out will increase demand. They knew about AI, Lidar, sensing, quantum computing years before we heard about these drivers. I am sure they looked at what could provide what they needed, lower cost, direct drive modulators that were faster, less power hungry and smaller in size.
Lightwave had to prove it could be utilized for high volume manufacturing despite having proven their polymers provided what customers needed and could be additive to manufacturing in a few different ways in their own clean room. The closer they got to satisfying foundry partners the PDKs worked it appears that the foundries wanted as little information disclosed as possible. Not having that information has been hard on shareholders as the stock price has been easily manipulated by short sellers and market makers. People do get tired and some sell. We have had to wait for the final whistle to blow that EVERYTHING tests well and it is a go.
It looks like we are approaching that very soon. I believe the weakening in the stock price is due to the lack of details being made public and the misinformation that gets spread. I suspect the market makers know things are getting closer to taking off and have only a little time left to fill orders from institutional buyers by selling shares from inventory before important information about commercialization occurs.I am hopeful this all will change over the next couple months with several important conferences scheduled. Market makers will likely start filling their inventory through purchases in advance of information or at least before short sellers start to cover.Things are going to get wild.
I can see where Intel would abandon 25G per lane transceivers using PAM 4 bringing it to 200G. The data centers will not utilize that going forward for upgrades when faster, lower power options will be available to the market. The speculation of an Intel, Global Foundries, Ayar Lab connection gains a little more credibility. Intel can't give up on lucrative market.
The largest operaters of data centers are: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Meta Platforms, Equinix, Digital Reality Trust, NTT, Global Data Centers, Cyrus One, GDS Holdings, KDDI's Telehouse, Cyxtera Technologies, Core Site (American Tower), QTS Data Centers, Switch Inc., Alibaba Cloud, Oracle Cloud. There are a little over 200 more globally but they don't run many or don't run large cloud data centers.
The Data Centers that run cloud services are typically going to be the first movers in upgrades and will be the initial customers for Lwlg fueled transceivers as they are experiencing the crush with data transmission.. These larger data centers servicing the cloud include familiar names, AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Alibaba, Oracle, IBM, Tencent. I believe there is a race on to build even more data centers. Two years ago Microsoft stated they plan to build 50-100 data centers a year. I know, that sounds nuts but who has the biggest stash of cash to gain market share. Google also has big plans but not that many. Not every data center will be hyperscale many will be and with the most advanced equipment they will get the business preferentially. It takes up to two years to build a hyperscale data center. They need the best equipment but existing data centers servicing the cloud will need upgrades as well.
In the end, there will likely be an overbuild as companies compete with one another. A pick and shovel company like LWLG that will sell the most advanced data trasmission products will gain no matter who leaps out in front.
As the share price gets worked down prior to the upcoming conferences that will likely matter, there is much going on behind the scenes that we are not privy to. Two years ago the company was engaged with 5 foundries in developing PDKs with 2 more in the pipeline. Over the past two years we have seen the technology advance to the point that Dr. Lebby is telling us we are on track to bring modulators/transceivers into the market in 2024. PDKs are working for volume manufacturing. Once the company knows how to accomplish that it becomes easier to develop PDKs with foundries that follow and partner with the company. We don't need all 5-7 foundries to manufacture modulator chips for the transceiver rollout and we could have even more foundies on board at varying stages of readiness for other products. The issue is what other products? We know telecom and 5G equipment was identified as potential targets. Lightwave's partners have enforced continued compliance with NDAs. As they get closer to bringing products to support a buildout of the network we should be hearing about these efforts and contracts could be forthcoming sometime in 2024.
These investor conferences are also for us, the shareholders. Dr. Lebby reinterates the successes in developing the technology, the market clearly needing it, and he reaffirms the planned ramp in bringing modulators and transceivers into the market. He reaffirms where we stand in comparison to competitors and there is nothing close. His confidence in commercializing OEPs is very clear if you watch today's presentation. Customers want to see a complete set of specs and stability data before ordering. Their ordering will likely trigger the next contract or contracts. He has talked about being "excited" about prospects in the past. Today, as he said that, he really was obviously excited. Remember, he knows how the data is looking and he knows things are going to really roll fairly soon.
Thanks Lewrock for the link to that conference.
Jim Marcelli appears to talk very fast and is partly hard to follow for that reason. One idea doesn't always follow cleanly into another which can be confusing for listeners not already familiar with the topics. He hesitates at times as he seems to be looking for the train of his thought as he loses his focus and then is able to go on. He just cannot talk fast enough to keep up with his thoughts. He prematurely leaves a topic and moves onto another.
People with this problem don't do well with off the cuff presentations or answering questions as there is a tendency to abrupty leave what he might be saying moving on to another idea prematurely. This will leave listeners a bit confused.
This kind of problem can make for poor communication even though his thought processes and judgements can still be quite reasonable and effective. I can see he would not do well as the face of the company as it requires adjusting your speaking to the allow the audience to follow what you say and saying it in the necessary time frame you have. It is hard to organize your thoughts when you think too fast and unfortunately you come across as not all together. His history of successes in business do suggest he is still a capable businessman.
As reported in Barrons today:
Lisa Su, CEO of Advanced Micro Devices at the Golman Sachs Communacopuia and Technology Conference in San Francisco on an update on Artificial Intelligence and the demand for semiconductors to run it remains "robust". She goes on to say "First, Second and Third priority are around AI, AI. AI. Over the last 30 days what we've seen is a continued acceleration of engagements" for AI in the data center. Su added that the market is "skyrocketing".
On the last earnings call on August 1st she said engagements had increased seven times in the last quarter.
AMD is very optimistic for selling AI accelerators into the market and stated that market will reach $150 billion by 2027.
Now my take: All of this suggests there will need to be complementary upgrades to modulators and transceivers throughout the network to handle the crush of data being transmitted. Network switches and routers need upgrades as well. Lightwave should be in the middle of that uptake along with partners. I think 2024 is going to be a lot more interesting than we thought.
I agree LR, it is less difficult now because for the past 10 years or so there have been many attempts to introduce new materials but with only limited results. The market has seen if a new material is introduced often another parameter loses ground. There has been no material introduced that incresed speed significantly at the same time as lowering power consumption. There is now urgency to do both because the foundries are out of options to anything significant other than organic polymers. Organic polymers solve these problems while adding the bonuses of smaller size that offer better design function and the ability to add more modulator chips in a transceiver based on need allowing for faster versions in the future. On top of that the overall cost will be less as polymers allow for direct drive which the industry has wanted (except for manufacturers of driver chips). The fact that no upgrades to factory equipment is needed to get these advantages is an additional selling point. You and I and othjer shareholders know this and Dr. Lebby goes to conferences to drive home the point to manufacturers, customers and the investing world that Lightwave's Optoelctric polymers are coming to a data center near you fairly soon.
I am waiting for the final test results on foundry samples that should annoint Lightwave's polymers as the likely winner in the next upgrade phase for the industry.
The company absolutely needs to be doing these conferences. I suspect for some, a lot of the frustration against another conference relates to the positive things shareholders have heard in conferences but it has not been reflected in the share price. Short sellers ridicule the company for another conference but really hate to hear that there is progress being made. It is extremenly difficult to get the industry to accept a technology that is far different than legacy materials. It means upending the previous narrative that polymers can't be stable enough to be incorporated into chips.It is necessary to educate industry leaders and potential customers to the progress the company is making and the importance of utilizing this new technology when it becomes available. The company has, through conferences, discussed the step by step breakthroughs and their getting ready to bring polymers into the market in 2024, maybe even sooner. In the near future they will talk up at a conference the strong stability data which could the the start of a launch point to contracts and customer acceptance.
Advertsing is important for a small company trying to break into the market and eventually play a pivotal role in meeting what the market needs as to lower cost, lower power and faster modulators.
From what you have said it sounds like reporting varying types of revenue with different time frames could be complicated. I would anticipate there will be much more clarity from management on when and how revenue gets reported by revenue type as well as how the backlog is reported in the future. There will be varying timeframes for certain revenue types which will be analyzed closely by everyone. Once revenue starts coming in everyone, shareholders, customers, analysts and the general public needs to know the bookeeping and reporting rules that the company will follow. Unless it is clearly stated and repeated with the quarterly financial reporting there will be misunderstandings among some and purposeful distortion by others who might wish to negatively interpret the results and to try and influence the share price. This is where an experienced CFO comes in as a clear need, and one who can explain things clearly to all. I am not sure that Jim Marcelli would fit that role if he has had difficulty communicating simpler topics in the past as I have heard other people on the board describe.
Duke, I certainly see all of your points and they make sense from the standpoint of a shareholder who has held for a very long time. I take that into account when you and some others long time shareholders complain of the slow progress. I would be getting impatient as well. I think Dr. Lebby has done a good job in my timeframe of ownership. I have been in the stock starting in late June 2021 and from my perspective I have seen the tech move a long well and I am comfortable waiting through the next 12- 18 months to see how the ramp in devices go. I am good as long as there are clearer signs of progress relating to monetization of the polymers. I think good things are coming over the next year. Patience comes down to what someone's age and financial position is about as far as holding or selling a stock that has been pre-revenue for a long time. Good weekend to you as well.
Carlin, I think once the contracted partner is manufacturing and selling devices, it is more likely that LWLG will be able to say something about the customer. Once it is clear that the cat is out of the bag so to speak would it still matter to a customer to keep LWLG out of the picture? At the very least they could say " we are using organic polymers in our manufacturing process" and anyone who looks at who that would be would come to the correct conclusion as there is only one answer at this time.
Duke, we have to remember that currently we are still in a risk off market and pre-revenue small caps are mostly doing poorly. We went from risk on in 2021 to risk off in 2022 and will remain so unless there is further certainty that interest rates will start declining. Many people still think a recession will happen in the next 12 months although I am not one of them.If a small company forecasts revenues coming in the near future that will get that stock moving higher. If that doesn't happen, it is a good short candidate or it is just ignored all together.
"Lightwave isn't going up until we acknowledge someone well known is using us". I hope that is true but I am prepared that may not happen. We are entering what will likely be a very fast paced build out of data center upgrades as well as network switching and routers. Soon, there will need to be a 5G network access equipment upgrade to allow for broader bandwiths, higher frequencies and lower latencies to accomodate the anticipated increase in wireless traffic. Lightwave should have a place there as well. There will be a lot of competition around manufacturing upgraded devices and unfortunaely NDAs are even more important in this type of setting for companies not to signal what direction they are going. Lightwave's customers may require some confidentially even after signing a contract much like what occured with our first one.
All is not lost with such a contract if there is more detail provided without naming the customer compared to the previous one. I still scratch my head over the first contract as it is a supply agreement but no mention of how the patent moat around manufacture of devices using Lightwaves OEPs is included; or is it to be signed off on at a later date once manufacturing begins? With a new contract there needs to be more detail for it to have a a real beneficial effect on the share price. Other companies in this position will not name a customer but will disclose things like it being a tier 1 or tier 2 company (denoting market size) in a certain segment and stating exactly what is being provided to that customer. Disclosure when polymers start being used and money comes in would be helpful to make a contract more real to the investing public and still offer some confidentiality.. For LWLG even a tier 2 company could be very meaningful as a customer if the foundry for example made it clear it was dedicating significant manufacturing capacity to chips containing polymers. Any contract news is good but better if there is some detail to make it clear there is a real customer with an intent on how to use our technology.
At the beginning we may not hear the name of the new customer unless the customer allows it under an NDA. There are of course other potential custoimers operating with LWLG under NDAs but competition will exist with legacy companies offering upgrades to their previous products. After Lightwave's polymers are more commonly used in the marketplace it could be seen as an advantage to say that you are working with them on new products. By that time the share price would much, much higher than it is now.
Dr. Lebby's statement not too long ago "it's happening" appeared to be inferring significant progress that will lead to polymers being taken up by the market and significant news will be close at hand. Close however means different things to different people. Some want close to be this week or this month. To others it is perhaps months away. In the semiconductor world, close likely means manufacturing works and we await final testing results so we can begin active marketing. We should know by experience that semiconductor companies don't move fast when it comes to a signiificant shift into manufacturing a new product with new technology. After final testing results are available companies move to finalize contracts and marketing plans. Dr. Lebby must know testing will look great and will be announcing important news soon at least based on his comments about likely new contracts coming in 2023.
We are still a pre-revenue company working in an area that is not well known by a very large part of the investing market. When Dr. Lebby talks we all listen. Most of the investing market isn't listening and won't until there is news that makes it clear the technology will be taken up by partners especially big ones. Before things look a lot more clear, the exit of some of the smarter short sellers will begin and the share price will begin the rise it deserves.
I can see your point Lurker. There is a suble but clear difference between "will" and "we want". At the same time as he says "we want our technology to become ubiquitous" over and over it seems pretty clear to me he is a confident man regarding being able to commercialize OEPs into multiple products and markets. Lightwave's polymers don't need to become "ubiquitous" for us to be successful. I would settle for widely spread into multiple markets and devices which will be very, very profitable for shareholders. As polymers are integrated into devices, how widely they are taken up will depend on future competing solutions which are better, of which there are none apparent to me at this time. Due to design advantages for Lightwave's polymers, working with partners to spread polymers into various markets and a multiplier effect from being able to fit many, many modulators into devices, without size constraints, to increase data transmission they have a long runway to grow in a huge way over the next decade.
Some say LWLG will go nowhere for the next several years giving no credible reasons except past history of a failure to commercialize. We have a bloated board because of the large increase in their posts and other board members who point out flaws in that thinking. One thing to keep in mind is that Dr. Lebby has been telling us that Lightwave's polymers will become ubiqitous for the last couple years and the company has kept moving the technology forward. The word ubiquitous comes up just about every conference he attended or chaired over the past couple years. He has not backed down on that prediction. Now we hear companies saying they need the kind of modulators that are much lower power, much faster and smaller for better designs. This of course is a tell as LWLG has modulators that fit that description and they have the business plan that could make their polymers ubiquitous.
We must remember that Dr. Lebby has 40 years of experience in photonics. He has a PhD. in Engineering, an MBA and has over 200 U.S. utility patents to his name and 450 if you count international patents as well. He is a full professor and has taught optoelctronics at Glydwr University, Wales, U.K. He has been a technical consultant to the European Commision which manages policies for the EU. He is a leader in the area of photonics and is a often a lead speaker at conferences. He has a knowledge of the whole optoelectronics industry that is beyond compare. He has a history of seeing things in the industry well before they happen and that is why his coming up with new patents has been so voluminous. He is someone that has worked hard to achieve all this. His reputation is exceptional and he likely is very proud of that. Somebody like this doesn't keep talking publically about Lightwave polymers becoming ubiquitous over and over unless he knows a lot more than the numskulls on this board that say he is wrong. You would be foolish to bet against a guy like this.
Spartex, I am not sure that Dr. Lebby was communicating that the company that signed the polymer supply agreement can then go and market it to other companies who have their own device designs. That would give up a lot of control of the supply of polymers to another company. On listening to him he did not seem to be clear on how this contract would flow and lead to that. I heard him say "This licensing agreement is to supply our material to a company, and it could be more than one company and many companies who have their own device designs"
"Later he went back to saying "we are happy to license our materials ..." which I take to mean they do the licensing. This suggests he believes that there will be likely many similar licensing agreements of their materials probably based on this one as a model. Lightwave has talked in the past of choosing who they work with so I believe they still want control where the polymers go. This plan will speed up EOPs into different markets but I think Lightwave will be still making the deals.
I would not knock the importance of shares bought and held in index funds. These are shareholders that hold shares throughout the year and do not succhum to panic selling as some individual shareholders will at times do. This, along with LWLG's strong individual shareholder base offers share stability to the shenanigans of short sellers buying and selling shares to try and induce more overall selling. Even if funds loan out shares to have them shorted, the shares are still owned and shorts have to cover and return them at some point. More and more fund companies, other than Vanguard and Blackrock have LWLG shares as seen on the Fintel site. Capitalization weighted index funds will have to buy more shares when LWLG starts to run higher once commercialization leads to sales and a rise in the stock price and overall market capitalization occurs.
I am glad at least I-Hub is happy with all the contraversy and arguing. Taking a step back, all social media sites operate on advertising income. That is a reason why sites do little to discourage or prevent misinformation and will provide the means to send or make available to you the information or misinformation you seem to want based on your clicks. It is up to us to try and avoid getting into that trap.
Unfortunately some people engage directly with Ted all to often in tit for tat arguements that go nowhere. He appears to get energized by the process. Posters would do best with either ignoring him, post thoughts in the third person as a "new"post as opposed to going with him directly back and forth and making it a one and done posted opinion. It would help to not clog up the board as much.
Ted, I know you want to reach the "newbies" coming to the board to find out about the company and to warn about problems you see. I don't think that your efforts in offering challenges to management's narratives are being appreciated by the number of "likes" you don't receive for the content. I still believe you are here to confuse folks. I believe you do accomplish that for people who casually come onto the board. By filling up the board day and night with doubts about what Dr. Lebby might say and arguing back and forth with other posters you create the havoc you intend to create. You bait people to bring out their animosity which you seem to revel in. Even your "goodbyes" are confusing as you keep coming back which predictably irritates other posters here.You have even stepped up the pace of posting over the past couple months most likely at your employer's direction as I believe you are a paid for your efforts. Nobody would be doing what you do for as long as you do through the day it if you were not gaining financially.
I don't believe your efforts gets shareholders on this board to sell their shares. As far as new potential investors, a few might leave because it would be confusing and frustrating going through the Ted related dialogues. In the end, it won't matter for the share price if "newbies" don't buy now due to the confusion, as when news regarding further commercialization starts, everything changes. Current shareholders are fine as long as hey hold. New investors will buy in when things are more clear that the company is starting its roll.
Some people on this board may not like what I am going to say but the closer we get to 2024, the more likely deals get announced for supply, tech transfer and packaging. They very well could be announced in close proximity to one another quickly followed by announcement of modulators and transceivers with eye popping specs. Deals are likely close to fruition waiting on a trigger or final signing of contracts based on proximity to launch. Partners know they are not the only partner and cannot dictate terms as much as they would like. Once a tech transfer agreement is announced a second and even a third could come out soon after.
From a strategic perspective, if Lightwave has a say on timing of announcements, doing so in close proximity would be the most effective way to defeat the short sellers who have controlled trading in the stock to a large extent over the past couple years. If you are ready to try and take on a market it is better to come out strong. If you are going to come out with technology that leapfrogs the others you don't announce it long before incumbents as it gives them time to adjust and try to catch up. As a result we may not hear about deals before the upcoming conferences but after and closer to a rollout in 2024. Partners obviously have a say here as well and their readiness matters and that pokes a hole in my thesis.
I like the above scenario but it may play out slower than I think or hope. We have some people here who don't believe the company is close or has many potential partners but they have not been listening close enough.
Lightwave has been closely linked with Smart Photonics. It is just a matter of time for that to be formalized with a contract to maufacture. Everytime a partner gets more funding to expand and manufacture chips it is like funding LWLG as it is integral to manufacturing hyprid PICs with a partner.
If they have a lot of options selling some allows one to have current cash for whatever is wanted or needed. Typically management get more options yearly so options are looked upon as part of salary. It is easy to sell some when one expects more to come later. The majority of options have been held by management as is typical of management in other companies. Holding options defers taxes into the future if one expects the share price to move higher. Options are as good as stock so no need to convert until later, into the future. You are trying to make something out of nothing.
It was news that was meaningful to shareholders. I think we both agree it was too vague to do what you are suggesting as far as waking up the entire investment community. It was a call to people already in the know but still too vague to have a lasting difference. More disclosure and clearer signs of commercialization is needed.
On 12/14/22 The SEC issued updates on 10b5-1 insider trading plans making it more difficult to set up these plans. For 20 years or so courts and members of Congress complained that insiders still had an advantage over small investors due to insider knowledge. A company has to set up guidelines for the company to have in order to allow for such insider trades, buying or selling. There must be a cooling off period before it can begin to avoid trading on immenent information. They must be acting in good faith that they are not using it to time trades. In setting up a plan insiders must now state in writing that 1) they are not aware of any material non public information about the issuer or its securities 2)they are adopting the plan in good faith and not as a plan to avoid the prohibitions of rule 10b-5.
The company has to tell investors such plans are available for insiders in the company to use, inorder to let shareholders know it has been disclosed. This would be disclosing in quarterly updates to usage of such plans by company insiders.
You see, it has become more complicated for insiders with material knowledge about a company to trade in its stock even in these 10b5-1 programs set up in advance. I can see why insiders in LWLG would be prohibited it buying stock as there is a great deal of nondisclosed material information that could affect the share price. They are not stupid to do so under current circumstances.
You are correct that those market insiders often are early into a company before retail investors however this company is unique as it has been a public company like forever and has not utilized traditional investment bank deals to fund itself. No analyst coverage adds to the company's anonymity. Coverage won't likely happen until there are products and sales start. Usually those savy investors with money and connections hear about a rising company with an upcoming IPO. Companies with sales and some scale stay private until they can come out in an IPO. It tends to get alot of press and it makes a big splash. Lightwave has functioned as a development stage company for so long with no sales for so long, very few outside of people that follow photonics closely know about it. Even the area of photonics is not an area that generates the attention it needs, yet. As for company insiders, there is likely so much going on with partners that there is no time management can buy shares as impending deals would prevent that. It is not uncommon for small companies with no sales to be unrecognized by many smart investors as it usually takes a long time for small companies to get started in commercializing. With no debt, leading technology and industry backing by partners things can happen quickly.
The company has developed slowly, intelligently, quietly for so long the market fell asleep. That is why there has not been a large influx of buys as yet. Dr. Lebby will be releasing the Kraken very soon.