is...(lightning strikes only once unless you remain standing where you shouldn’t be.)
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"I have nothing more to say
No more games to play"
because.
"The winner takes it all".
Yes. But I wish to avoid the idea of “they’ll take it all.” If they do then yahoo.
L_R
Lightwave only needs a slice of the market in the areas they are targeting in order to do well.... really well.
We are good for that for sure.
And as the market demand grows the pie gets bigger.
L_R
I believe you are correct. Overwhelming data ramp from AI and other applications.
It is concerning.
L_R
No one else has developed a polymer with chromophores (molecules inserted into the stable polymer to act as a switch). Lightwave has 70 patents related to this polymer. To date there is nobody that utilizes a polymer in this way.
But let’s suppose someone elsewhere does have a polymer and maybe they boast to have one. Well it takes 2-3 years to develop a PDK (design kit) with a foundry. And the modulator that is manufactured at the foundry must come back to be tested for months afterwards.
In this regard any competition is way way behind. Very very unlikely to catch up.
Along with all of these barriers competition must also establish relationships with customers and foundries in such a way as to create interest and desire for the product. You need a good communicator and leader in the photonics industry. There isn’t anybody who has a better reputation than the CEO of Lightwave…. Michael Lebby.
It is time now for you to read up on all of this on the Reddit forum. My friend ….. this is a chance of a lifetime if what I say is all true. So it is worth your time to start reading and investigating.
Be on guard from the Left and right hypsters and trashers.
Best in what you find.
L_R
Ha Ha. Give it to them.
L_R
Correction. In our case includes RF utilized in these transceivers I do believe.
L_R
1) An optical modulator is an optical device which is used to modulate a beam of light with a perturbation device. It is a kind of transmitter to convert information to optical binary (off /on) signal through optical fiber (optical waveguide) or transmission medium of optical frequency in fibre optic communication.
2) A transceiver is a combination transmitter/receiver in a single package. While the term typically applies to wireless communications devices, it can also be used for transmitter/receiver devices in cable or optical fiber systems. In our case optical fibre systems.
Now the big stuff:
Lightwave has discovered a way to use a polymer (plastic) with specially designed molecules placed in the plastic (while in a liquid or semi-liquid state) in such a way that the molecules can be controlled by tiny electrical currents that cause them to either "stand up" like an army or "fall down" randomly. If the stand up together they block the light and when they fall down randomly light is "unperturbed". This is much much faster than mechanical systems or other systems because molecules are really tiny. The semi-liquid is "frozen" at low temperatures so that the special molecules work together when a small current is applied and this is really "exciting" since it has NEVER been achieved before in the 20-30 years that it has been attempted. (I know I know I am oversimplifying this for the techie's that are reading this).
Because of the way these molecules work at low voltage the polymer can interrupt light at extremely fast speeds and thus it becomes a perturbation device described above operating...... let's say 10x faster than other "switching systems" and therefore can handle much much more data at much much lower energy levels and can be reduced much much more in size.
You super techies out there can correct my errors in trying to explain this in laymen terms.
L_R
Lightwave is receiving fully operational modulators coming back from the foundries and have been receiving them for some time.
Foundries are showing "extremely high yields for > 1000 poled devices" as early as Sept 2022.
It is very common practice for newly produced devices coming from foundries to be sold to clients for testing in their datacentres or wherever they are being tested.
In the meantime the industry has been waiting for the full data sets of information about these modulators and this takes time to do (months).
These testing procedures are called ALT (Accelerated life testing under extreme stress situations).
Currently the datasets appear to be about ready since results from these data sets will be unveiled in early October.
We suspect when these full data sets are revealed then it should be followed by signed contracts (these contracts take time to develop and to sign).
Following this ...... orders may come it.
Ramp up of the production of modulators in foundries also takes time and will be months following the signed contracts.
Since PVT's have already occurred in some foundries (it couldn't be otherwise based upon the statement seen on slide 25 of last falls presentation "extremely high yields >1000 poled devices") what follows is the next stage ...... MVT or (mass production trials). These yields will still not be of huge volumes but will be substantial.
That's how I see things unfolding. I am certainly not as competent in explaining this as others are.
Best to you,
L_R
Now that is a good question.
Of course if you graph the rate of change in ownership you can tell if they favour Lightwave against other tech stocks. Simple stuff.
L_R
On the light side.....
Where we live we swim in it and drink it for free (but not exactly in that order. :)
L_R
No wonder hedge funds are buying up water rights.
Semiconductor manufacturing, or chipmaking, is an extremely thirsty business. According to the company’s latest sustainability report, Taiwan’s semiconductor vanguard, TSMC, used 82.8 million metric tonnes of water to make 14.2 million semiconductor wafers in 2021. That’s around 5,840 litres — or nineteen fully-brimming bathtubs — per chip, although the water used to produce some of the most-advanced chips at TSMC’s future plant in Arizona is estimated to reach up to three times that figure. This immense sum puts huge pressure on drought-struck regions in Taiwan, which produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors, including 90% of the most-advanced ones.
I hope Arizona has LOTS of water.
If size of the chip has anything to do with water usage then Lightwave will not only save on power consumption but water consumption since it is 30x smaller than comparable performing chips.
https://techmonitor.ai/technology/silicon/fixing-chipmakings-dirty-climate-secret
L_R
Hey. I like honesty. Learn as much as you can about Lightwave. You will be enlightened.
NVIDIA can only do so much in developing the potential of AI. The entire ecosystem must be seriously upgraded to accommodate the demands of AI upon the “grid”.
What the system needs is to become truly photonic from beginning to end. We are so early in this development. It would be wonderful if the entire chip industry migrated to a system that transmits data at the speed of light. While that is not possible, heading in that direction is what the industry needs to do.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if someone came up with a chemical that when applied to a photonic chip would increase its switching speed by 10x ? Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the chip could be shrunk by 30x, wouldn’t it be wonderful if these small chips used 1/3 of the power?
It would be a miracle chip for the industry wouldn’t it?
Well that chemical exists and Lightwave has exclusive rights.
Enjoy reading,
L_R
Ai is going to swamp the internet with data and therefore solutions to increase speed and bandwidth for transmission of huge volumes of data is required or else AI potential will not be realized. You gotta have the pipes., you gotta have the speeds, you gotta have a reduction in power consumption and you gotta have a reduction in space.
Lightwave polymer devices can and will do the job. There are no other serious solutions offering solutions for decades to come.
My suggestion to you is to consider getting interested because this is where the real money will be made for generations to come.
But then again I really don’t care…. I just want to make you think about it.
Have a good weekend.
L_R
Yes. Go read press releases from LWLG.
L_R
Could it also mean, that the 1,000 units are representing 10% of the population?
That isn’t an easy question to answer.
You need to ensure a 95% confidence level. Usually if you know your population size then a sample size of 10% is used but in this case we don’t know what the population size is.
So I will take the “expression” used by ML on last Septembers presentation.
“Extremely high yield on > 1000 poled devices”. So if we assume the minimum of 1000 poled devices were created at a foundry (which must be the case from this expression) then a sample size of 10% or 100 units would give us an excellent result and the required 95% confidence interval.
So testing on 100 devices would be excellent. In alot of testing no less than 30 units is required but the confidence interval of 95% may not be achieved.
To throw a wrench into this whole thing…… the number of things being tested determines also the sample size. We are testing at least 6 factors that I know from a Telecordia testing perspective.. KCCO listed most of them. This would increase the requirement for sample size but I believe 100 units will do the job for the 1000 poles devices coming out from the foundries.
Well there you have it. Not exactly a simple question and not exactly a simple answer.
L_R
You have written this very well with good explanations as to why they are testing to Telcordia standards.
Now to this question
The real question is does this new ALD process F up the material?
Okay. $5 it is PLUS the plane ticket to Denver. Worth it. (Btw that’s $5 CDN.)
L_R
Yes AND this is the first time a commercial deal has been obtained not just for Lightwave but for the industry. ….. a polymer modulator.
A first. Get it.
L_R
As far as success goes if I had to chose between X and TP as far as who knows how to make money I would say ........ "X marks the spot".
L_R
Nobody would suggest there was a poling issue who understands what this means:\
PVT: Production Verification Trials (results).
"EXTREMELY high yields on >1000 poled devices"
It is a non issue and as you say a nothing hamburger.
L_R
Works for me
L_R
K:
I believe 5000 hours equate to approx 8-10 years reliability/stability.
10,000 hours ..... 20 years approximately.
I believe this is well beyond industry standards.
This data is going to be great to see for the industry.
L_R
.It is extremenly difficult to get the industry to accept a technology that is far different than legacy materials
PVT (Product Verification Trials) trial runs at a foundry showed great results as far back as last September. I wonder how many other foundries since then have also done PVT’s. No one knows as this information won’t be released by the foundries and certainly constrains Lightwave’s ability to release this info. We can speculate on this at best. Could be just the one foundry but no reasons to doubt that as many as 4 others also have produced high yields as well. We just don’t know.
Extremely high yields. > 1000 poled devices showed up on Lightwave Logics presentations as far back as Sept 2023 and Oct 2023.
So what is the hold up? The new lab space was necessary and is necessary for the production of the Perk and testing of products after production for the final steps. The space is now secured for the high volume ramp for next spring and mass production ramps the following year.
It is going to be exciting to see these data sets coming out this October. These data sets are what the potential clients are looking for. With the release of the data sets to industry it is is going to be very difficult to ignore all of the benefits of Perk induced modulators and the follow on transceivers. Who can ignore what industry is looking for?
The advancements during the last 12 months clearly point to the fact that production is imminent.
Long and strong,
L_R
Point of view.
Presentations at this stage is needed advertising. Part of game at this stage. The industry wants to know there are long term solutions for the huge demands placed upon their systems.
L_T
865 now. :)
L_R
We could and should be willing to ask harder questions at the next ASM as things unfold.
I suspect some of my questions will be answered.
Knowing the right questions to ask is important as well.
L_R
>110 Ghz, plasmonic 250
both pluggable & non-pluggable
both 1310 &1550, implying thermal stability
roadmap beyond 3200
Direct drive
Thank you for this post.
It was both kind and to the point… truthful actually.
I am reminded of this ancient wisdom given here:
“Don’t cast your pearls before the swine.” A very noble and wise one said that a couple of thousand years ago. It seems like a very unkind thing to say but in fact it has merit…. “Or else They will trample it under foot.”
Treasures have been posted here on this board and they have been treated as worthless by the less noble among us.
You do what you do quite well….. treating the undeserving the way of the undeserving.
Slop it to them.
L_R
Carl:
I think this board is pretty much toast. Maybe we should call it quits here. I have so many on ignore that I might be the only one left.
Hey I could almost post and read only my own posts and begin to “like” myself.
All have a good weekend!
L_R
Ba ha! 4 million is heavy volume.
This is nothing.
L_R
Brilliant. Just plain and simply brilliant.
L_R
Foundries are NOT going to release any information about progress in photonics for PVT or MVT trial runs or about PDK successes for that matter. They must hold their cards tight like a poker player if they are to gain an advantage in the industry.
Therefore Stop finding fault with Lightwave Logic for failing to provide clarity on foundry work and progress with PDK’s. That simply is NOT going to happen and we should not expect this type of information to be released if foundries will not allow it.
Chip companies very closely guard their actual yield numbers the way poker players guard their cards and for the same reason: They don't want to give competitors any inside information.
This is good information to have KCCO. Thank you.
L_R
XENA:
p. 25 sept 2022 presentation the following was posted:
" EXTREMELY HIGH YIELDS on > 1000 poled units" at the bottom of the page
https://epic-assoc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/3.1-Michael-Lebby_LightwaveLogic.pdf
These are yields on a trial production runs.
Yields are what you get in foundries or fabrication plants.
You need high yields for profits but LEBBY posted:
EXTREMELY high yields on poled devices >1000 units
A product validation test often measures the quality of finished products made at full production speed. Normally this means making 1,000 or more units of a product and measuring for functional and cosmetic imperfections, as well as irregularities within the manufacturing process, like operator training level, line speed, and line yield. Engineers then recommend and apply changes to the manufacturing process to improve yield and quality. This process can take anywhere from a few weeks to a few months, depending on production times.
KCCO:
I did the same after your note. Looked up some scientific research papers as you did.
Learned lots after the fact.
Finding the truth when you want to find it is not that hard if you have a mind or heart to do it.
L_R