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You have at least all of April and the first week of May to buy ESLR at this price or cheaper. It will firm up heading into earnings. But this stock will not begin a real uptrend until they can deliver positive earnings and management can demonstrate an ability to make good strategic decisions. Selling their Devens factory for an extreme loss did nothing to bolster investor confidence in this shaky group.
I think the move to China was strategic and the write-offs and extreme losses taken resulted in the reverse split effect on share price being erased. Tons of red ink showing. I'm hoping it fostered an orgy of selling and wounded longs bailing out.
If I'm correct, ESLR is building a base here. It's possible that one quarter soon, they will have positive earnings of .20-.40 If that happens the stock will be up 100-200% overninght from here. So, averaging in a little each week in April may be a good strategy. Or buying September $2 calls might be good too? Don't know how long it will take them to have positive earning though.
MF4
I couldn't agree more. CORX should make RD the focus. Then use funds from that for other pursuits.
MF4
well, another 3 messages deleted. Oh, the humanity.
MF4
RD is a great indication with a huge market of unmet need by hospitals administering opioids to treat acute pain in ICU.
The reason management is crucified over this by some, including myself, is that even after POC, they could only get the deal with Biovail, which went nowhere.
If I were the manager of CORX, I would have contacted hospitals, opioid makers, anesthesiologists, all day long. I would have pursued this thing like a dog until I had multiple interested parties and a bidding war. Anything less reflects lame management, IMO. Go ahead neuro and torch me.
MF4
Maybe they can change NIV's symbol to FUQU?
MF4
Ombow,
I don't know. Wasn't RD a major clinical breakthru? All the could get was $10M and a dead-end for it so far.
MF4
I thought NIVS seemed fishy from the start. Glad I didn't bite.
MF4
Big,
You make great points that I agree with. However, The rest of the world is making up for the slowdown in the old world. If there was a stock that tracked the American economy, you would be wise to short it. But the DOW and SPY are mostly international.
That, my friend, pokes a big hole in your market scenario. U.S.? Sure. This country is F'd! But the market? Not that bad. I hope you're only risking a small portion of your net worth.
MF4
Bigworld,
Man, you just keep hoping to be early on the "big selloff", yet you miss every "buy the dip". You may be right someday and maybe get 50% of your projected selloff, but you'll probably miss the exit point on that and get burned anyway.
Logic is not your friend here. You've probably missed about 100 chances to make money since march of 2009 by buying the dips. It makes no sense that the market goes up with $100+ oil and depression-era foreclosures. I agree. But the market is it's own beast.
I like you and wish you well,
MF4
Looks like the talk of a "market selloff and market top" have shaken the loose hands out. Crank it up again to higher highs.
MF4
GFP,
I agree that CORX should not persue a trial for SCD. I don't know why they don't persue another partnership for RD instead? They have POC and un unmet need. Stop with the orphan carrots already.
MF4
GFP,
I too felt that SC was positioned as the next carrot for two more years of booze, broads and internet poker. I hope not.
My point about RD is that I think RD is the most presently marketable indication. They already have POC. There is nothing else out there that restores breathing but preserves analgesia. Therefore, there is a need and most importantly, no competition that would be likely to tell the FDA to fail the drug. Plus, it's for acute, not chronic use. So, long term toxicology should be less of an issue.
Yes, I'm assuming the FDA is corrupt and BP pulls it's strings. That's why CX-717 probably failed. Persuing RD gives CORX a way to get into the good ole boys club since they aren't taking market share away from anybody.
It would also be a huge benefit to get an ampakine into public hands. As it's use proliferates, positive side effects will be whispered about. After a few years of practical use for RD, and a good safety record, the FDA will have to be more accomodating while the public is screaming for ampa use in other indications.
MF4
We all assume Bernanke is desperately trying to save the U.S. What if this is just an engineered crisis designed to appear so desperate that congress allows the FED to put the country in an insurmountable debt that will lead to a global currency and selling U.S. assets to pay off the debt?
We would never agree to such a scenario if it was laid out that way from the start. But, create a modern depression, then start down a path of QE that should save us, according to the scholar in charge. Suddenly something goes wrong, the dollar becomes worthless, and out of desperation, congress compromises our soveriegnty, we are ruled by the UN and IMF, and become a third world country. Defeated from within, without dropping a single bomb. Pretty neat trick, huh?
MF4
I have a close friend on life support now for pneumonia. While visiting him, it occurred to me how there is a huge need for a drug that eliminates the RD effects of opiods even for pain management in critical care. He's been on a profenol drip for almost a week and they have to carefully monitor him to keep the vitals in a tight range. All because opiods depress breathing.
I can't believe CORX hasn't been able to partner the RD indication. There is alot of money to be made here. They have POC. What's the delay? Ridiculous.
MF4
GFP,
When a company is seen as crap by the market, a reverse split only hastens the dwindling market cap. Take my other heartbreaker, ESLR, for example.
Share price peaked a few years ago over $18/share. It has dropped steadily since. a few months ago it was under $1. The company did a 1:6 reverse split. It has dropped ever since, and today it's headed back under $1 at $1.20 or so.
CORX needs a good, strategic partner for share price to reverse direction. Anything less, or status quo will result in share price stagnation and dilutive financings. Management should realize this.
MF4
Athero,
OK. Thanks for the explanation. But the problem still remains. Management is unable to do anything with RD, even with clinical sucess. So, wouldn't SCD have the same result, even with clinical sucess?
MF4
I think the only move now, since they won't/can't sell the compnay is to go virtual until Servier has some sucess. Then accept their buyout offer.
MF4
Sickle Cell? Seriously? I asked what the new carrot will be? Now we know. C'mon MV. Tell us you sold the company.
MF4
Only the share price. Otherwise, strictly a guess.
MF4
Maybe "investors" are starting to realize that this company is nothing more than a guy that rents a Jeep every 3 months and drives around making mining claims?
MF4
Does anybody know if the Cortex portion of this webcast is going to be archived for viewing after the presentation? It's right in the middle of my day, and I would rather catch a playback tonight.
MF4
and despite this seemingly good news, corx sells down to .13 as 5 traders got a whopping $3K for their shares on a downtick.
MF4
Tommer,
Wrong again. .0175 on 600K shares
and back down. Like I said......
So, CORX apparently has $200K cash they could afford to buy the ampa rights back with. Does this mean they have ALL rights to everything back now?
Sold it for $10M, bought back for $0.2M - I guess that would be considered a "good" transaction? Good job MV. I think I'll tune in today to listen for something other than standard boilerplate.
MF4
Bigworld,
Nice call on the selloff. Take some profits. This week will mark the bottom. IMHO.
MF4
GFP,
Cortex management had more than $20M, at the same time, in the past. What good did they do with it?
What makes you think they could do something good with it this time?
MF4
Well, other than the occasional repost of a private email from Ombow, this is the closest thing we get to shareholder communications.
No doubt in my mind it will be the same old tripe. "We have multiple irons in the fire, currently in talks with potential partner, waiting for their input before submitting IND, blah, blah, blah".
Meanwhile, booze, broads, and internet poker continues while the hourglass gives up its sand, and the coffers dwindle.
What will the carrot be this time? Maybe it will be good enough that the stock will pop for a day and they can do their next dilution at the top? Nah. Probably just more mismanagement.
Just put me out of my misery and sell the company Varney. Please!
MF4
Isn't Cortex supposed to present soon at some conference?
MF4
Haysaw,
Keep being you on the CORX board. Somebody needs to call out all the BS there.
MF4
News Flash: NO BUYER!
Booze, broads and internet poker. Until they can't dilute another share, this will be status quo.
MF4
Haysaw,
When Varney says "companies like Cortex", he means "....with shitty management".
MF4
Ombow,
Thanks for your efforts. Without you, we'd have no idea what management is up to.
MF4
Let me make sure I have this correct: Drive down the share price by dumping shares, in order to force the company to sell itself or its assets (as if potential buyers are unaware of the market valuation of the company in their negotiations)in a fire sale---in order to enhance the value of the company.
In fact,
This may now be management's new target. A drug that eliminates someone's need to gamble. I can just imagine the trial design and delays on reporting results that we are in store for.
MF4
$2 is the bottom. It won't pop much until March options expire since I have a buttload of those at pre-split $1. As soon as those expire, ESLR is free to rise.
That is, as long as I don't buy anymore.
MF4
I've been looking for a partner for years.
This last month, I've been short STD and long C.
Look at the charts.
I'm telling you, I am quite gifted
Don't buy it as long as I'm a holder. And I am.
Two days ago, I sold ESLR at $2. Which is the equivalent of $.33 since it reversed split at 6:1 recently. I bought those shares at $18. Now it's up to $2.25 already 1.5 days later.
Sorry guys. I have THE worst luck and timing with stocks. With CORX, it's personal. 15 years holding this POS. If I sold all on Tuesday, It would be over $1 by Thursday. Can't explain how I have this power, I just do.
For me, I'm holding CORX to the bitter end. I've got 15 years in this turd. Not going to let it go now.
I bought PCLN at $1 and sold it at $1.10 It's well over $400 today.
Sorry guys. You're going down with me on this one.
MF4
Yeah, that's what I figured since all it's done since I bought some, pre-reverse split, at $18, a few years ago is dive. But, my reality is that it would go to zero had I not sold. My selling created the bottom. In some other parallel universe, I have the midas touch. Clearly the opposite rules are in place here.
You can all send $100 to the save MF4 fund. C/O Goldman Sachs.
Thanks,
MF4
The bottom will be $2. That's where I sold a chunk of this POS.
MF4