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Keep On Keeping On:
Its a daily process keeping up with the movers & shakers of the market.
Good Luck working the mine!
I Look Forward to Your Participation & Remarks!
5 Mines Operating by Late 2007:
Campbell should have 5 mines operating by late 2007:
1. Joe Mann (mostly gold)
2. Copper Rand (copper, with significant gold byproduct)
3. Corner Bay (copper)
4. Cedar Bay (an extension of Copper Rand, but with higher gold grades)
5. Merrill Island (a satellite deposit. We will see earnings in 2006 from this small mine)
You need to examine several sources to get an accurate picture of expected production, and production costs. Details for Copper Rand are presented in excellent detail in the Prospectus (see below). For Joe Mann and Corner Bay, you need to do some investigation.
1. Joe Mann Mine:
I expect production at Joe Mann to rise back above 30,000 ounces of gold per year. Joe Mann will also produce almost 1 million lbs copper. I conclude this because:
- Joe Mann was producing above 30,000 ounces gold in 2003, 2004, and 2005
- The main reason why production dropped in 2006 was the cash crises the company faced.
- Campbell will begin a significant drill program at Joe Mann (see prospectus). The Resource number should go higher.
- Even without new drilling, the Joe Mann Resource number (not the Reserve number) would support about 2 more years of production.
- Mr. Fortier gave an interview in a Quebec paper in late March 2006. He is quoted in that article saying he was targeting a number above 100,000 tones per year from Joe Mann (grades about 0.30 oz/ton). The translated article was posted on StockHouse the same day (posted as text).
- I expect production costs of around $400 USD per ounce. This is inline with production costs we saw in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2005, before their cash crisis.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
2. Copper Rand Mine:
For Copper Rand, please refer to the Prospectus for the best detail. The Prospectus is available StockWatch (subscription), and it should also be in Sedar (free).
The ballpark numbers I have been using are for 14 million lbs copper and 37,000 per year from Copper Rand. These numbers were extrapolated from the slideshow on the Campbell website. I had been using the slideshow numbers, minus the 25% lowering of expecations we saw in a recent report.
Updated numbers are below. These numbers are for Copper Rand only. They come from the table in the Prospectus (with my math calculations), and are slightly different from numbers I have posted in the past.
Cooper Rand 2007
----------------
Almost 11 million lbs copper
18,000 ounces gold
Copper production costs about $2.07 CAD per pound
Gold production costs $0.00
Copper Rand 2008
----------------
Almost 16 million lbs copper
Almost 26,000 ounces gold
Copper production costs about $1.60 CAD per pound
Gold production costs $0.00
Comments:
In 2009 and 2010, the copper grades come down, and the gold grades go much higher, as the ore mix changes.
Production costs are higher in 2007, then come down in 2008. Let me emphasize: The prospectus gives a detailed table, on page 48, showing the 5 year production plan for Copper Rand. Every year is modeled.
These are total production costs, including “environment” and “human resources”. In the past, I have posted about cash operating costs.
This model shifts all of the production cost into the copper component. That’s reasonable, because Campbell has typically provided one number for Copper Rand – the cost per ton. Any gold they get out of that ton is accounted for as a byproduct.
These numbers are Canadian dollars. In my previous models, posted in StockHouse, I have used US dollars.
The reason I sound a little defensive is because I have often posted that the copper production costs at Copper Rand should be around $1.25 per pound. I pride myself on accuracy. When you see how they have modeled these costs, you see that the latest numbers are not that far off.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
3. Corner Bay Mine:
The Corner Bay mine is Campbell’s “Behemoth” project. Nuinsco (NWI.TO) will be paying for part of the development of Corner Bay. Nuinsco will own 50% of the production from CB, but it looks like that is only for the first 250 meters of the mine.
Campbell will proceed with a bulk sample program over the next 2-3 quarters. The Prospectus says that we will see about 8 million lbs copper produced in this bulk sample program (if I did my math correctly).
Full production will be start after the bulk sample, should be mid-2007. The prospectus doesn’t talk a whole lot about the anticipated production rate from Corner Bay. I was using a number of 9 million lbs copper per year. But Nuinsco wrote some comments about Corner Bay in one of their recent press releases. Nuinsco listed an anticipated production rate of 15 million lbs copper per year.
I expect production COSTS to be much LOWER than Copper Rand. That’s my conclusion, not something that Campbell has indicated. I base that on the fact that the CB copper grades are more than double the grades at Copper Rand, and the ore exists at shallow depth.
Campbell discusses an initial mine plan in the prospectus. As one might expect, they don’t postulate (dream) about what Corner Bay might become. But take a look at the total tonnage numbers. If you count all three categories of Resource, you will come up with about 250 million lbs cooper.
Add to that the fact that Campbell will start further drilling in the next few months. They do say, in the Prospectus, that the Corner Bay deposit will probably grow.
I know I’m being optimistic here, this next comment is a “blue-sky” scenario. But I think that within the next 1-2 years, we will be looking at a total Resource of over 400 million pounds high grade copper at Corner Bay. And Nuinsco will own much less than half of that production.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
4. Cedar Bay:
Cedar Bay is an extension of the Copper Rand mine. It’s a former producing mine, and can be brought back online fairly quickly. There is a beautiful diagram of the Cedar Bay deposit in the Prospectus, and on the Campbell website.
The April 24th, 2006 press release specifically mentions bringing Cedar Bay back into production. But the Prospectus only discusses Cedar Bay in a footnote. I have confidence that we will hear more about Cedar Bay after all of these deals close.
My ballpark, gut feel, is that we will see annual production of 5-10 million lbs copper, and over 25,000 ounces gold, annula production, just from Cedar Bay. The main reason for this guess is that Cedar Bay appears (in the diagram) to be smaller than Cooper Rand, but Mr. Fortier said that the average gold grade was higher (Mr. Fortier never provided details on the grade)
I expect Cedar Bay production will start in late 2007. I base that date on the fact that Cedar Bay is mentioned in the April 24 press release.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
5. Merrill Island:
This is the first of several “satellite properties” that Campbell will be bringing online. Production should start within about 30 days.
Production rates will be low, but profitable. Let’s talk more about this later.
The important thing to note about Merrill Island is that Campbell management never talked much about the fact that they own several of these “satellite deposits”. It was a surprise to everyone on the StockHouse CCH board, when Campbell made the announcement that Merrill Island would start producing. They announced it 1 or 2 months ago.
This revelation, about Merrill Island, helps describe one of the best things about the Campbell Management team: They will more likely offer a positive surprise than a negative surprise.
How many Dips_hit Juniors have we seen, where Management offers more hype than substance? The average mining company Management always seemed to be overstating things.
Then we have Campbell Management that says “Oh, by the way, we also own a bunch of other small satellite deposits, and we decided to start producing from them. Sit back, production will start in a few months”.
Campbell has a few other “satellite” deposits, they wrote that in a recent report. But Mr. Fortier refuses to give any details on this. I guess we just have to wait for Christmas.
==============
Conclusion:
I have been posting, for a long time, that I believe Campbell will be earning between $30 and $80 million Canadian dollars by mid-2007. That will be the annual rate they will hit by mid-2007, so total earnings for 2007 could be slightly lower. That will give Campbell a forward PE ratio of somewhere between 1 and 3.
I have written how the CCH price got “walked down” this week, by a bunch of slimeball Traders from TD Sec. I watched it happen in level 2 – you could see them “taking out the bids” with a bunch of low volume sales. Late Friday, TD Sec (broker 7) was bidding to buy the shares right back.
Well if you take my more optimistic model of $80 million annual earnings, and use Friday’s share price of $0.14, you will come up with a forward PE ratio of about 0.70.
That’s right, a producing copper/gold miner with a PE ratio of under 1.
Entire Article:
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=13116560&tableid=2
Canadian News:
Article #1:
Cambell Resources or,
CCH has quite a few institutional holder's as noted below. Add to this Sprott Securities which is different from Sprott Asset Management (SAM) & we are in a good position. Sprott Securities owns more than 100 miilion of our shares in its different accounts mostly thru the PP they did with CCH last year.
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=14692492&tableid=1
Article #2:
Sprott Asset Management (SAM) also has 16 Million shares of CCH.
Cloick the link at the end of the post to see CCH ownership..By different insitutions & Mutual Funds.
So now (SAM) has 23.6 Million of CBLRF & 16 Million of CCH.
BTW..(SAM) is a separate entity from Sprott Securities.
We still don't know how many shares Sprott Securities own. ALL the financings & Private Placements were done by Sprott Securities & NOT Sprott Asset Management (SAM). Sprott Securities has a much bigger stake in CCH than (SAM). Sprott Securities is not telling us how many shares they own..I don't see any filings from them on SEDAR or SEC. I am sure its a considerable number. Both Nuinsco (NWI) & Sprott Securities have a major role in CCH.
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=14692492&tableid=1
Article #3:
Campbell should have 5 mines operating by late 2007.
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=13116560&tableid=2
Barchart Indicator Says 100% Buy Indicator:
Short Term Indicators Average: 80% - Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
Overall Average: 96% - Buy
http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=cblrf
Price: 0.1630
Support: 0.1423
Pivot Point: 0.1623
Resistance: 0.1823
I-Box has been Updated:
Charts have been displayed to keep track of daily price increases.
BarChart Working:
Mick, in reference to your last post,
"bars doesn't have sgcr in their systwm. i wonder why?"
BarChart is up and running today.
Short Term Indicators Average Says 80% Buy
http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=sgcr
Another Big Fat Red Day:
Its the sellers who are keeping this stock down!
So far 1,109,600 shares traded today.
Don't worry we shall overcome.
At least a hammer candlestick has formed today, thats positive news.
Go Longs, Buy More!!!
Its time to start watching CBLRF again:
Looks like the big boys are gonna let her run, they must need some money.
If she doesn't give us a good run, at least, its time to pay attention.
Just what you predicted 2 months ago:
Your day has arrived. The charts showing the start of a run.
The bulls have been let outta the corral.
I'll be watching this one with you all week long!
We've got a climber!
Looks like the Run has Begun:
Have been waiting patiently and its certainly long overdue.
Let em run hard and strong!
Amazing Find on the Barnett Shale Field:
INXS, You did it again.
Remarkable article!
I really appreciate this one on the Barnett Shale and Amtex Oil & Gas find.
This explains the quietness we have been experiencing over the last year.
Certain people are getting their shares purchased before they take this one up.
You are becoming quite the sleuth.
At least while your around, we won't need Holmes & Dr. Watson on the scene.
Keep up the good work, I'm very impressed indeed!
Barnett Shale and Amtex Oil & Gas:
Posted by Barnett Shale News Team on March 6th, 2007 at 06:22am
http://www.barnett-shale.us/?p=116
All of our “Greenwood Projects” are expansion drillings from the Barnett Shale Field in Wise County, Texas. They are named after a village in the heart of this most attractive play.
The Barnett Shale formation in the Fort Worth Basin stretches over 5,000 square miles, and across 10 counties. At a depth of between 7,000 and 9,000 feet, the layered rock formation which is unusually rich in raw materials demonstrates strength of 400 to 900 feet and is therewith the most productive gas field in all of the U.S. During recent years over 2,500 boreholes have been sunk into the Barnett Shale without a single failed drilling. Each and every one of the drillings are constantly monitored by geologists, petroleum engineers and other experts.
Production in the Fort Worth Basin dates back to 1952 when George Mitchell bought the mineral rights of a large area that was later called the Newark East Field. Mitchell Energy is today a public company, one of the largest in the US. They are still very active in the Fort Worth Basin but are nowadays focusing upon drilling deeper wells than before. Deeper down there, in the Barnett Shale are huge reserves of natural gas and condensate that are characterized to be of world class standard. Yet it took until 1996 for large investments to start. The major reasons why Barnett Shale has not been a target at an earlier stage were the high costs of drilling to this depth and the low gas price. However, over the past few years drilling costs have halved, technology has advanced, and the gas price has reached an economical level, thus making such drilling projects feasible.
All of our “Greenwood” wells are operated by a major working interest owner, the Aruba Petroleum Inc. of Plano TX, which is a 15 year old company that owns and operates a huge number of oil and gas wells nationwide.
-amtex oil and gas
Ohio - Look At these Charts:
We've got good volume building.
That's all its gonna take to make this baby fly.
The problem is too many sell days - red days.
Might have to wait another month but thats nothing.
OHIOTOM, have you bought back in yet?
Just curious, thats all.
Have a great weekend in preparation for next week!
Patience, Patience, Patience:
We're due for a rally any time.
I passes up on the last 3 rally's because I believe we're in for a good one.
This game takes a lot of time & patience.
Only time will tell.
Keep the faith.
Go baby Go!
I bought back in January 2006.
The trick on this one is to buy at the trough.
I bought midway up.
Could of sold, but its been fun watching it.
I feel like I've learned its personality by now.
When I sell, I haven't decided if I'll buy it again, but I'm definitely getting out this time around.
I could be wrong but it looks like the stage is set and the curtain will rise any day now.
We haven't had a really good rally in the last year, we're way overdue!
Market at Close:
WTER -- WaterChef, Inc.
Primary Venue: Quoted on Pink Sheets and OTC Bulletin Board
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=wter
TRADE DATA
Last Sale: 0.1075
Change: +0.0115
Percent Change: +11.9792
Tick: Up
Daily High: 0.113
Daily Low: 0.096
Opening Price: 0.10
Volume: 1,305,200
Annual High: 0.185
Annual Low: 0.0132
Previous Close: 0.096
Depth/Level II
http://www.thesubway.com/companydata.asp?qm_page=65778
Water Chef Inc.
7/19/2007 5:45 PM
Last: 0.1075
Change: +0.0115(+11.98%)
Volume: 1.31 m
Last Trade: 3:56
Time & Sales Price Size Exch Time
0.1075 10000 OBB 15:56:57
0.11 900 OBB 14:54:06
0.111 20000 OBB 14:22:06
0.1105 200000 OBB 13:53:33
0.112 30000 OBB 13:52:16
0.11 10000 OBB 13:40:07
0.11 20000 OBB 13:40:00
0.11 40000 OBB 13:26:06
0.11 50000 OBB 13:24:57
0.113 2500 OBB 13:15:35
0.1125 2500 OBB 13:15:31
0.11 5000 OBB 12:52:08
0.11 5000 OBB 12:52:07
0.11 50000 OBB 12:51:37
0.11 5000 OBB 12:49:37
0.11 5000 OBB 12:49:15
0.11 15000 OBB 12:48:49
0.11 5000 OBB 12:48:49
0.11 15000 OBB 12:48:45
0.11 5000 OBB 12:48:37
0.11 50000 OBB 12:47:40
0.11 25000 OBB 12:46:23
0.11 50000 OBB 12:44:53
0.11 5000 OBB 12:44:28
0.11 25000 OBB 12:44:24
0.11 25000 OBB 12:44:22
0.11 5000 OBB 12:43:53
0.11 5000 OBB 12:43:16
0.11 1000 OBB 12:36:30
0.11 5000 OBB 12:34:22
LEVEL II Quotes:
http://66.201.236.134/export/level2.jsp?symbol=wter
VERY NICE DAY INDEED
UP Today @ 11.98%
Lets keep this baby on the move!
Moven Back Up - Slow & Steady She Goes:
Another Green Day Today!
Up 10%
Volume = 94,040 Shares Traded
Here We Go:
Up 15.62% today with Great Volume!
@ 1.3M shares traded so far today.
Homework Paid Off:
INXS,
You had a good idea about checking the short interest ratio, thank you for that bit of wisdom!
After two days of study I have a better understanding of how & why the market is shorted.
I don't like it but I now have a better grip on how it works.
If you have any changes, ideas or recommendations to post #142 please let me know.
This was a really good exercise and hope we all learn something from it.
Any and all comments are welcome.
Formula to Calculate Interest Ratio + Summary Notes:
1. To Check Short Interest go to: (Look under Fundamentals)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=ATEX:US
2. Currently:
77,574,963 OS divided by 2,145.000 = 0.036165
3. Future:
I'm looking for the short interest to drop to around 1,700.000
Or 77,574,963 OS divided by 1,700.000 = 0.045632
Or 77,574,963 OS divided by 1,600.000 = 0.048484
Or 77,574,963 OS divided by 1,550.000 = 0.050483 = Target
4. SUMMARY - KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER
Notes from Post #135 - Short Interest Ratio:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_interest_ratio
• The short ratio (or short interest ratio) is usually the number of shares outstanding of a publicly traded company that is sold short, divided by the average daily trading volume (daily transaction). It can also be the percentage of the free float that is "shorted".
• It is one measure of the market's outlook on a given stock; a higher short interest ratio indicates more pessimism, because a higher proportion of a company's total float has already been sold short...
A technician would be bullish when the short interest ratio approached 5.0 and bearish if it declined toward 3.0.
5. Notes From Post #136
Short Interest - What Does It Mean?
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortinterest.asp
• The total number of shares of a security that have been sold short by customers and securities firms.
• Short interest is typically expressed as a percentage. For example, 3% short interest means that 3% of the outstanding shares are held short.
Days To Cover:
A measurement of a company's issued shares that are currently shorted, expressed as the number of days required to close out all of the short positions. For example, if a company has average daily volume of 1 million shares and 2 million shares are currently short sold, the shares have a cover rate of 2 days (2M/1M).
More on Short Interest Ratio:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortinterestratio.asp
• A sentiment indicator that is derived by dividing the short interest by the average daily volume for a stock. This indicator is used by both fundamental and technical traders to identify the prevailing sentiment the market has for a specific stock. Also known as the "short ratio".
• This ratio provides a number that is used by investors to determine how long it will take short sellers, in days, to cover their entire positions if the price of a stock begins to rise. The short interest ratio can also be applied to entire exchanges to determine the sentiment of the market as a whole. If an exchange has a high short interest ratio of around five or greater, this can be taken as a bearish signal, and vice versa.
Bulls Getting Restless:
Right On, the ratio is currently at around 0.036165%
Lets see how long it takes before the bulls get loose.
I'm ready to see em run!
Whats Amtex's Ratio - 3 or 5?
Ref:
Post #135 Short Interest Explanation
"A technician would be bullish when the short interest ratio approached 5.0 and bearish if it declined toward 3.0".
Now we've got to figure out what is Amtex's ratio.
Is it a 5, the sign of a bullish market coming?
OR
Is it still bearish at a ratio of 3?
GOT ANY IDEAS ON HOW TO DETERMINE THAT???
If its a 5, then we're ready for business.
If not, then we go back to sleep.
Short Interest - Investopedia:
Short Interest - What Does It Mean?
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortinterest.asp
• The total number of shares of a security that have been sold short by customers and securities firms.
• Short interest is typically expressed as a percentage. For example, 3% short interest means that 3% of the outstanding shares are held short.
Days To Cover:
A measurement of a company's issued shares that are currently shorted, expressed as the number of days required to close out all of the short positions. For example, if a company has average daily volume of 1 million shares and 2 million shares are currently short sold, the shares have a cover rate of 2 days (2M/1M).
Short Interest Ratio - What Does It Mean?
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/daystocover.asp
• Also referred to as the "short-interest ratio".
This ratio is somewhat unique because it measures the future buying pressure on a stock that is virtually certain to happen - short sellers must buy back shares at some point if they are to close out their positions.
• If a stock's price begins to rise significantly, investors who have short sold the stock will quickly begin to close out their positions (by purchasing shares off the open market), creating buying pressure for the stock and driving the price up even more. If a previously lagging stock turns very bullish, the buying action of short sellers can result in extra upward momentum and increased losses for short sellers who are slow to close out their positions. The longer the days to cover, the more pronounced this effect can be.
More on Short Interest Ratio:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortinterestratio.asp
• A sentiment indicator that is derived by dividing the short interest by the average daily volume for a stock. This indicator is used by both fundamental and technical traders to identify the prevailing sentiment the market has for a specific stock. Also known as the "short ratio".
• This ratio provides a number that is used by investors to determine how long it will take short sellers, in days, to cover their entire positions if the price of a stock begins to rise. The short interest ratio can also be applied to entire exchanges to determine the sentiment of the market as a whole. If an exchange has a high short interest ratio of around five or greater, this can be taken as a bearish signal, and vice versa.
Short Covering - What Does It Mean?
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp
• The act of purchasing securities in order to close an open short position. This is done by buying the same type and number of securities that were sold short. Most often, traders cover their shorts whenever they speculate that the securities will rise. In order to make a profit, a short seller must cover the shorts by purchasing the security below the original selling price.
• Also referred to as buy to cover or buy back.
• For example, suppose a trader has sold short 50 shares of ABC stock at a price of $10.00/share, because he speculated that ABC will not be successful in the near future. Unfortunately for the trader, the company has been recently very lucky and its price rose to $15.00/share. In order to limit his losses, this trader decides to cover his short position by buying back the 50 short sold shares at a price of $15.00/per share.
Short (or Short Position)
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp
1. The sale of a borrowed security, commodity or currency with the expectation that the asset will fall in value.
2. In the context of options, it is the sale (also known as "writing") of an options contract.
Opposite of "long (or long position)".
1. For example, an investor who borrows shares of stock from a broker and sells them on the open market is said to have a short position in the stock. The investor must eventually return the borrowed stock by buying it back from the open market. If the stock falls in price, the investor buys it for less than he or she sold it, thus making a profit.
2. For example, selling a call (or put) options contract to a buyer entitles the buyer the right, not the obligation to buy from (or sell to) you a specific commodity or asset for a specified amount at a specified date.
Weak Shorts - What Does It Mean?
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/weakshorts.asp
• Refers to the group of investors who hold a short position and are quick to exit their positions at the first sign of strength in the underlying asset. This group of investors looks to capture the gain on a move lower, but they are usually unwilling to take on as much risk as other investors.
• Weak shorts differ from other traders because they will close their position at the first sign that it will move against them. It is not uncommon for this group of investors exit a position only to see the asset move to a price that would have made the trade profitable if they had left it open.
Short Interest Explanation - Wikipedia:
Short Interest Ratio
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_interest_ratio
The short ratio (or short interest ratio) is usually the number of shares outstanding of a publicly traded company that is sold short, divided by the average daily trading volume (daily transaction). It can also be the percentage of the free float that is "shorted".
It is one measure of the market's outlook on a given stock; a higher short interest ratio indicates more pessimism, because a higher proportion of a company's total float has already been sold short.
The short interest and short ratio can be deceiving, however, when a company has many convertible securities outstanding and is perceived to be at risk, because convertible and options arbitrageurs will often sell the stock short to manage risk with their long positions in these other instruments.
Technicans (Technical Analysts) interpret this ratio contrary to one's initial intuition. Because short sales reflect investors' expectations that stock prices will decline, one would typically expect an increase in the short-interest ratio to be bearish. On the contrary, technicans consider a high short-interest ratio bullish because it indicates potential demand for the stock by those who previously sold short and have not covered the short sale.
A technician would be bullish when the short interest ratio approached 5.0 and bearish if it declined toward 3.0.
Convertible hedgers are usually not hoping the price of shares will fall and, if properly hedged, can cover their short positions with shares embedded in the convertible securities. Thus, a large short interest position for such companies does not necessarily imply a classic short squeeze, and the short interest ratio becomes somewhat meaningless.
Clarification of Short Interest:
I've never noticed the short interest until today.
I'm still not sure what to think.
Is the 2,145,000 short shares mostly from yesterdays trading?
OR
Has it been accumulating over the past year?
OR
Was none of it from yesterdays trading?
Shorted Shares:
I don't mean to sound ignorant.
Am I to interpret the short interest as meaning yesterday was a shorters market and they are trying to drive the price down even further?
I figured the shorters have been doing this over the last year and thats why the price is so cheap.
When it comes to shorting the market, I have a lot to learn.
Any comments to explain what you mean would be greatly appreciated.
Even with the shorters, at some point the market's got to reverse.
Fundamentals?
No Luck.
What am I looking for?
Radio Talk?
TV Talk?
I'm an apple computer user and not compatible with PC WIndows software.
Can you give me a summary of what you want me to see and hear?
Much Appreciated,
Hilander
Amtex is Very Quiet with No News:
Here's some research I kept, very upbeat and very positive. The outstanding shares are currently very low and being thinly traded, that is UNTIL YESTERDAY. I believe someone over the last year has been quietly buying up whatever shares are put on the market. There haven't been many but when they're available, they're snatched up immediately. INXS, I agree with you, something's up.
An Under the Radar Equity
From: Penny Stock Trading Reports
Subject: An Under the Radar Equity
Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 18:30:12 +0200
The Wall Street Investor
An Oil Discovery That Will Put The Middle East Out Of Business.
One of the most exciting oil & gas investment plays
that we have seen over the past year,
A promising stock investment opportunities
Am-Tex Oil & Gas.
==========================================
Am-Tex Oil & Gas, Inc. OTC: AMTX
Current Price: 0.30
STR0NG BUY with a short term price of 1.50 (20 Days)
REASON Production and major news pending
Short Term Outlook: Explosive Growth
Est. Shares Out: 77 Million
Market Capitalization: 20.79 Million
Industry P/E: 16x
Industry Average 52 Week Price Change: +65%
==========================================
With oil prices over 50 per barrel, and foreign imports looking
increasingly unreliable, this is a boom period for US oil
exploration companies. Savvy-investors that have been buying AMTX
will reap the rewards very shortly due to EPS and Major discovery
news in our opinion.
Morgan Stanley recently forecast that the price of oil could reach
as high as 80 per barrel by the end of the year!! With more than
57% of US oil coming from foreign imports, and increasing
international instability, the industry is undergoing a renewed
trend towards domestic exploration and production. US demand for
natural gas is dramatically increasing with overall consumption
expected to grow by more than 60% to 37 trillion cubic feet by 2020,
and natural gas prices on the spot market nearly doubling from less
than two years ago.
With this in mind, we ask you to consider one of the most exciting
oil & gas investment plays that we have seen over the past year,
Am-Tex Oil & Gas. While there are any number of promising
investment opportunities in the oil & gas small cap segment, we
almost never see stock opportunities with the same pedigree and
certainty of AMTX. Am-Tex has recently entered into an agreement
with oil industry giant, Exxon-Mobil and Holifield Oil Company, for
joint production of a 928 acre property in the heavily producing
Giddings Field in Lee County, Texas.
With Holifield Oil Company, AMTX has been able to secure a 25%
working interest in this project, while Exxon-Mobil holds the
remaining 75% interest. AMTX recently announced that it has
commenced drilling operations on Edgmon-Cameron, and expects to
begin production of commercially viable oil over the next 3-4
months, with initial yield expectations of more than 600 barrels per
day. Over the next several years, AMTX plans to bring additional
wells online, and projects annual income of more than 80 million
when the site has been fully developed by 2008!!!
Through this tremendous alliance with visionary oil wildcatter Ray
Holifield and Exxon-Mobil, we believe that Am-Tex Oil & Gas
represents the single most exciting investment opportunity we have
seen in the past two years. At trading levels of only $0.25 per
share, this is a true undiscovered gem. When commercial production
begins over the next several months, this stock will explode. We
urge you to consider investing in Am-Tex Oil & Gas now, and see your
investment explode by 300-500% over the next 3-4 months!!!
===========================================
1. The outlook for US oil and gas stocks has rarely been more
optimistic in recent years, with skyrocketing consumption,
decreasing domestic production, and foreign supply uncertainties
contributing to historical price levels for oil and natural gas. In
2004, the US will consumer 7.5 billion barrels of oil, while
domestic oil production is declining by 2% annually and is at its
lowest levels since the 1950?s, with more than 57% of domestic
consumption coming from imports. With crude oil now trading at more
than $50 per barrel, Morgan Stanley has recently predicted that oil
could reach $80 by the end of the year!!! At the same time, US
demand for natural gas is increasing at an exponential rate, with
consumption expected to increase at a rate of 60-65% to more than 37
trillion cubic feet (currently 23 Tcf) by 2020. With domestic
production of roughly 18-19 Tcf per year, this has created a
tremendous supply shortage, and is likely to drive natural gas
prices well above current levels of $5-6 per BTU. Many analysts
predict that natural gas prices on the spot market could reach as
high as $9 by winter!!!
2. In partnership with oil industry giant Exxon-Mobil and Holifield
Oil Company, AMTX has acquired a 25% working interest in a 928 acre
property, located at the Giddings Field, in the Austin Chalk Trend
of Lee County, Texas. The Giddings Field was first discovered in
the 1930?s and has been responsible for cumulative production of
more than 380 million barrels of oil and 2.1 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas. Most of this production was undertaken with antiquated
vertical drilling techniques, leaving a huge amount of oil and gas
reserves un-recovered in the ground- engineering estimates suggest
that there is over 1 billion in oil and gas reserves waiting to be
recovered in the Giddings Field!!! Using advanced seismic analysis,
horizontal drilling, and proprietary recovery technologies, AMTX is
aggressively re-entering the Giddings Field, and expects to begin
substantial production from the property over the next several
months.
3. Ray Holifield, responsible for AMTX exploration and drilling
operations, is a legend in the oil & gas industry, who has drilled
over 2,000 wells in this same formation over the past quarter
century. His wells in the Giddings Field have produced more than 3
to 4 times the oil of other wells in the same area, and the total
oil revenues from his wells exceeds $5 billion with an ROI of 5:1,
simply unheard of compared to industry standards of 2. What is
more, Ray Holifield has undertaken an extensive geological analysis
and survey of the area, at a cost of more than 10 million, which he
can use to accurately pinpoint and exploit reserves. When he used
these techniques and surveys in Lee County, Texas, the results were
astonishing. Of 647 vertical wells drilled, initial production
average more than a thousand barrels of oil per day, and total
production averaged 147,900 BOE, results more than 4.5 times greater
than other operators in the same area! Simply put, in the Giddings
Field, there is no better man to oversee production, who has more
experience and a proven track record of success, that Ray Holifield.
4. AMTX is ready to begin production now in the Giddings Field
property, and expects to generate initial production of 600 barrels
per day, with oil and gas income of 80 million projected for
2008!!! AMTX has selected 20 sites for new wells or re-entries, and
expects to be producing 600 barrels a day within the next few
months- generating income for the Company of approximately 110,000
in the first quarter of 2005. AMTX will bring one well online every
quarter in the early stages, and then plans to use cash-flow to
start-up two wells per quarter. By the first quarter of 2008, AMTX
projects that it will be earning income of over $20 million, an
annualized rate of more than 80 million!!! Based on earnings
projections of $80 million for 2008, and applying the industry P/E
of 16x, this suggests a valuation for AMTX of 14.00 per share- an
increase of more than 5100% to current trading levels!!!
5. At its current trading range of around $0.25 per share, AMTX
represents a tremendous opportunity to see huge profits. With
production slated to begin over the next several months, we think
that the stock will see major share price increases once the wells
begin production- with early investors seeing gains of 300-500% over
the next 3-4 months!! Historically, oil and gas exploration
companies see their stock price increase upwards of 100-200% with
major milestones, such as indicated resources, increased production,
and the successful completion or start-up of wells. FCGCF exploded
from the low $1 range to nearly $8 when it hit its first
commercially viable oil in September of 2002, a gain of more than
700%, while OILXF skyrocketed 428% from $1.00 to $2.64 from July
2003 to January 2004, when they struck oil in the North Sea. With
commercial production from the Giddings Field, helmed by industry
pioneer Ray Holifield, we think that AMTX will dwarf the price gains
of these players, and make early investors rich in the process!!
==========================================
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projections at the time the statements are made that involve a
number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results
or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.
Forward looking statements in this action may be identified through
the use of words such as: "projects", "foresee", "expects",
"estimates," "believes," "understands" "will", "anticipates," or
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to investing, stocks,securities must be understood as information
provided and not investment advice. Emerging Equity Alert advises
all readers and subscribers to seek advice from a registered
professional securities representative before deciding to trade in
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report shall be construed as any kind of investment advice. We have
been paid 20,000 dollars for this mailing from a third party.
Market Makers Gathering:
For months, there were no MMer's at all.
Some days I would check and there were 0.
This went on for months.
Other days there would be 2.
Then another day there were 4.
Today there are 13 Bids and 14 Asks.
They seem to be gathering for something.
What do they know that we don't.
Seems like the calm before the storm, I take this as a good sign.
Level II:
http://66.201.236.134/export/level2.jsp?symbol=ATEX
These guys are the most optomistic at 25 to 51 cents/share.
VERT 0.2500 5000 06:51:09
JEFF 0.2500 5000 06:52:40
INTL 0.2500 5000 06:52:45
VNDM 0.5100 2500 06:52:13
BEST 0.5100 2500 06:53:10
I believe this relates back to Mick's Point & Figure Chart:
Very Quiet Today:
I figure yesterday's trading amounted to around $60K.
Was it a fundraiser for the company?
The shares are thinly traded, not many people are selling at this stage of the game.
Most people are just sitting on their shares, like we are.
I don't know how to interpret this chart.
At the end of the day, did the company end up with the money in their pockets?
3 Month Long Bull Run:
INXS,
Were you around during the last run when Amtex topped out at $1.06?
1 Month of Sideways Channel is Enough:
Someone decided to sell today, selling 10,100 shares.
Somethings gotta change soon.
Anyone have any thoughts as to whats gonna happen next?
I know one thing, we need more volume to get this baby off dead center.
This is a great stock at a great price.
Am'still long and holding strong.
Closed with Spinning Top Candlestick Today:
Which way will it go?
Didn't see any After Hour Trades:
Incredible day of trading in the green.
Stay tuned and lets see what happens tomorrow.
Market at Close:
ITEM #1:
ATEX - Am-Tex Oil and Gas, Inc.
Primary Venue: Pink Sheets
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=atex
Best Bid: 0.016 (5000 shares)
Best Ask: 0.026 (5000 shares) *
Date/Time of Last Inside Change:
Mon Jul 16 15:57:03 EDT 2007
TRADE DATA
Last Sale: 0.026
Change: +0.011
Percent Change: +73.3333
Tick: Up
Daily High: 0.045
Daily Low: 0.016
Opening Price: 0.020
Volume: 2,012,060
Annual High: 0.030
Annual Low: 0.0070
Dividend: 0.00 Earnings/Share: N/A
Previous Close: 0.015
Beta Coefficient: 0.88
Last Trade Date/Time: 15:59
ITEM #2:
End of Day Final Results of Shares Traded - Subway.com - 7/16/2007 4:09 PM
http://www.thesubway.com/companydata.asp?qm_page=34348
ATEX
Last: 0.026
Change: +0.011(+73.33%)
Volume: 2.01 m
Last Trade: 3:59
Time & Sales Price Size Exch Time
0.026 10000 OTO 15:59:52
0.016 37472 OTO 15:56:57
0.02 5000 OTO 15:52:15
0.02 10400 OTO 15:51:59
0.02 1600 OTO 15:50:28
0.02 5000 OTO 15:26:51
0.02 5000 OTO 15:26:47
0.02 11250 OTO 15:26:31
0.0225 455000 OTO 13:50:23
0.024 4500 OTO 13:26:47
0.032 500 OTO 13:22:48
0.032 650 OTO 12:36:45
0.032 1600 OTO 12:34:19
0.03 25000 OTO 12:27:27
0.032 3500 OTO 12:13:58
0.03 5000 OTO 12:13:29
0.034 10000 OTO 12:13:12
0.03 10000 OTO 12:12:57
0.034 5000 OTO 12:11:37
0.034 10500 OTO 12:11:24
0.034 3800 OTO 11:36:03
0.034 5000 OTO 11:25:54
0.034 5000 OTO 11:05:38
0.039 20000 OTO 10:37:13
0.034 10000 OTO 10:32:43
0.04 11250 OTO 10:06:32
0.034 5000 OTO 10:01:53
0.04 5000 OTO 10:01:01
0.04 3373 OTO 10:00:32
0.04 10000 OTO 10:00:08
It'll Be Worth The Wait:
This is what we've been waiting for so patiently.
Keep an eye on this one, its gonna be fun to watch.
More Company Information:
OWNERSHIP As of November 11, 2004
Pan American Oil & Gas Investments, S.A. owned 38.67% of Co.’s
outstanding stock.
http://www.mergent.com/publish/uploadedFiles/AM%5B6%5D.PDF
Somethings Heating Up:
The Greenwood Projects:
Its been quiet too long.
This is what they've been working on so quietly over the last year.
http://www.amtex.co.za/greenwood.html
Our most recent Greenwood project, in fact, shows a brilliant initial return of 50% per annum.
http://www.amtex.co.za/payouts.html
Wake Up, We've got a live one!
126.67% Increase this morning.
Depth/Level II for Am/Tex Oil and Gas Inc.
7/16/2007 11:58 AM
ATEX Last: 0.034 Change: +0.019(+126.67%) Volume: 1.4 mLast Trade: 11:36
Time & Sales
Price Size Exch Time
0.034 3800 OTO 11:36:03
0.034 5000 OTO 11:25:54
0.034 5000 OTO 11:05:38
0.039 20000 OTO 10:37:13
0.034 10000 OTO 10:32:43
0.04 11250 OTO 10:06:32
0.034 5000 OTO 10:01:53
0.04 5000 OTO 10:01:01
0.04 3373 OTO 10:00:32
0.04 10000 OTO 10:00:08
0.04 5000 OTO 09:59:58
0.04 5000 OTO 09:59:45
0.04 5000 OTO 09:59:00
0.045 10222 OTO 09:58:31
0.045 20000 OTO 09:58:29
0.04 20000 OTO 09:58:29
0.045 10000 OTO 09:58:19
0.045 12000 OTO 09:57:59
0.045 339390 OTO 09:54:37
0.04 8000 OTO 09:54:33
0.04 12000 OTO 09:54:33
0.04 2000 OTO 09:54:18
0.045 5000 OTO 09:53:33
0.04 5000 OTO 09:53:30
0.045 10000 OTO 09:51:27
0.04 10000 OTO 09:51:24
0.045 10000 OTO 09:51:18
0.04 10000 OTO 09:51:15
0.04 3000 OTO 09:49:41
0.04 10000 OTO 09:49:39
Yep, its the mover alright!
Ref:
PM Sent By: mick
Date: 7/14/2007 1:25:32 PM
that's great,,, good morning to ya.
now for da mover?
got another chart for ya
5day/10day/50day ema...new chart2
Mick,
Thanks for the pm this morning.
Can't wait till next week to see what happens next.
Now that it a nasdaq stock, they must be & I must be expecting great things in the very near future.
Thanks for the chart, its now posted in the I-Box.
Thanks,
Hilander