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greed is good (for them)... i don't think they are worried about retail shareholders.... they just did an employee deal in dec 10
haven't studied the mechanics and pricing yet...
http://ir.avidbio.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/s-8/0001683168-18-003651
glad they are awarding employees etc... prev crew took most of the rewards imo...
the real price inflection point is when the analysts can smell success as in predictable identifiable rev from the exp space plus lab rev... that's where the $1 bil val comes from.... the road map and schedule are the question marks right now and the clients dictate when info is released and they are not interested in the retail shareholders concerns of their vendors
and wall street is still wall st... a step up in pirate class but still pirates
my guess is a financing coming up to expand vacant side... Lias indicated larger contracts in the works... and the fact that the contracts are "sticky" in that once you work together, there are expectations of expansion and one has to have that capacity ready by expected demand increase... like the chicken or the egg stuff... last feb they did a $20 mil raise and did a lot with labs etc... so I expect some type of raise... qtr end jan 31 so it could be to button up financing ... not worried but frustrated.... WAG is $15 mil raise... if you build it they will come but they won't come if you can't build it...
wonder if any impact from the shutdown? fda furloughed many workers...
Lias stated on the last cc that they are doing a lot of things that are needed for future rev growth and the results won't show up until FY 2020 which starts May 2019. The comment on Halo in yesterday's cc gave me some hope that the turnaround is going as planned. IMO they are setting the stage for good numbers in the next two qtrs. I think they are experienced at playing the beat the numbers game as well. And they seem to answer tough questions. I also think this "soft" qtr was a planned way to let institutions to load up so more. All these recent big buys did not happen without talking to mgmt imo...
agree... and halo's biz could get big and fast.. this could really help cdmo.. they are still taking out the trash w/ write offs and shutdown and setting up future earnings within the next 6 to 12 mths
Another thing to consider is the outlook for HALO. They just changed the trial endpoints for the phase 3 which should have a readout in mid 2019 and Roche has well as many others are ramping up other trials. The tumor micro environment is every bit as important as the primary drug treating the cancer.
AVID needs to be ready for a production increase and Lias knows it.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-halo-earnings-conference-042509225.html
I have a feeling that there is another placement coming but it will be for expansion vs buying back preferred. The operating leverage is much better if the rev expands. If it is announced with expanding rev, the sp should recover within short order. All imo.
yes I pointed this out earlier... as well as roche new orders with halo... hopefully get update on dec cc...
Oncologie has two drugs they are working on. The Mologen drug has nothing to do w/ bavi. If anything it frees up resources for bavi.
yes he could have more or less... my hunch is more but he prob trades as a prop trader would...
Add in Tappan, Dart and Ronin and you get 50% instit ownership.
Tappan 4,430,000
Dart 4,300,993
Ronin Group 2,362,000
Snyder Capital Mgmt bought 1.896 mil shares per 13f 9/30/18. They also added to a decent position of Halozyme.
From their website:
The Snyder Perspective:
We believe that investing with a long-term perspective in high-quality, under-appreciated companies will provide consistent, superior returns.
EAM Global w/ $2.3 bil AUM focuses on small/micro cap value opportunities for institutional investors.
Tappan and Bandera also focused on small cap undervalued. Expect rev ramp showing up FY 19. Lias basically said they are busy but results won't show up until FY 19 in ASM presentation. Lots of retail to shake out in the meantime. EAM did not buy $500 k w/o kicking tires. All imo.
http://eaminvestors.com/
The halo roche contract could be pretty big for halo... and it is for clinical trials vs sales so pricing is not as important as delivery time. How much CDMO gets will depend on how much CDMO can produce..... all imo
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/roche-taps-halozyme-s-drug-delivery-tech-for-up-to-520m
Unless another supplier was found (which I doubt due to reg hurdles) this could lead to big enough Avid deal to justify expansion. Small cap raise required but would not be dilutive if accompanied w/ expansion plans and contract... may take months to iron out ... just a hunch...
thx... looks like Sorafenib and Bavituximab trial canned due to lack of interest and Bavituximab With Radiation and Temozolomide has fully enrolled ahead of schedule per clinicaltrials.gov. The keytruda trial has not been updated recently.
https://www.oncologie.international/ongoing-trials/
and with 100 times the experience, contacts and integrity than the old BOD...
stafford has a good nose for deals... stafford dropped his bod seat at xncr to focus on pphm (cdmo) xncr has doubled to over $40 ps recently... not bad for stafford owning 7.5 mil shares... $300 mil .... and SK was dumb enough to challenge stafford vs work with him... imo SK chose to stay on the ES gravy train and now works out of his garage across from the lemonade stand run by an eight year old... karma
prelim proxy out.... proposal to reduce authorized shares from 500 mil to 150 mil..
no battles this time cause team king and crew are long gone... thanks again ronin...
look at the chart from early mid jan 2017 thru mid feb when they did the capital raise in mid feb... my guess is the same thing is happening here but I doubt the drop as big as last time for the following reasons:
1. capital raised will be for expansion.. expect contract activity announcement with expansion ... all WAG but one doesn't have four biz dev folks for 40 mil available rev...
2. old regime gone and better mgmt team
3. larger institutional base w/ russell inclusion... shares are becoming harder to get
4. new mgmt team and finance team will develop the go to players with more horsepower and institutional investor base... good riddens PL and his atm..
I expect onward and upward once the capital raise and dilution questions answered....
I don't think that happens until we get another equity raise. My guess is that it happens before the next cc and will be for expansion. There is a reason for the 3.5 mil shorts. My guess is 3.5 mil times $5 for $17.5 mil. Add the Oncologie payments and manuf biz and the expansion is about paid for. All just a hunch.
i don't think we will ever know the level of interest from other pharma because we don't know what conditions were attached to any deal. what we do know is that the previous bod's main goal was to keep the gravy train going without any accountability... thus the delay in the ASM and the expansion of the BOD... all to protect the bod, not max IP value...
and if you are BP, could you trust anything coming out of that cast of characters with all the trial failures and self dealing?
IMO SK did not think the Ronin boys had the horsepower to toss him out...
Thank you Ronin... and Tappan and prob Dart... would not be surprised if Dart is an investor in Oncologie... both have corp address out of Cayman Islands... and I don't think Dart would have an obligation to disclose a private investment... all imo..
speaking of stupid... looks like SK is pres of Artius..
https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-king-06305328
https://www.bizapedia.com/ca/artius-bioconsulting-llc.html
looks like the garage might be the conference room...
the additional space is already rented... it is a drag on earnings so the sooner it is completed, the better.
you don't hire all the bus dev folks to sell the remaining $40 mil in capacity. so they need to get the expansion space going, particularly with lead times and fda approval times. my guess is a 3 to 4 mil share placement at something north of $5 per share which would give them the funds to complete expansion (in addition to oncologie payments). the dilution will not be that bad given the upside w the rev potential which doubles to $200 mil. just my guess and placement completed and announced next cc which is prob mid august. just need to keep sp above $5 to keep the institutions in play. and this would remove the major question mark on expansion and how is it payed for. all imo.
another team member w/ Oncologie...
https://www.oncologie.international/our-team/
Jessicca Rege, PhD
Chief Development Officer
PhD in Pharmaceutical Sciences Virginia Commonwealth University
MS in Physiology from Virginia Commonwealth University
BA in Biology from Carson Newman College
Jessicca is an experienced oncology leader with over ten years of experience in the pharmaceutical field. She most recently served as Global Chief of Staff for the Cancer Enterprise in Daiichi-Sankyo where she took a central role in supporting the Global Head of Oncology R&D in both strategic planning and implementation of their global portfolio. Prior to this, she held various leadership roles in both large and small pharmaceutical companies in both clinical development and medical affairs supporting the development and approval of oncology products, such as Cyramza® , Halaven®, Lenvima®, and Sprycel®.
I hope but used same ratio of halo deal....
i would use 25% ratio on rev to estimate ebitda... not 70% ...
back of the envelope valuation based on biologic manuf:
$100 mil rev plus add rev potential of $100 mil times 5 (less capacity loss given they will not run at 100%) less $30 mil expansion costs discounted by the time to get there. DCF models are probably being formulated per questions asked by last analyst imo. The last regime was afraid of uncovering the value and hid AVID by combining numbers.
My guess given the consolidation in the industry and probable desire for some private cdmo's to go public, CDMO could be a nice vehicle to get there.
Throw in the bavi ip option..
Oncologie is willing to spend about $200 mil on development including CDMO payments of maybe $100 mil plus the drug dev costs of my guess $100 mil. The question for me is who is behind Oncologie. At some point any significant bavi IP traction in trials will translate into some value to CDMO... but right now a free option on the IP imo... this won't drive value but might drive some institutional interest in that some folks like a free gamble.. all this will take is an astute analyst doing some homework (if the flashing lights of trial success says do your homework).. so maybe a potential $2 to $5 per share stocking stuffer within 2 years added to CDMO value
I wonder what the DCF models are looking like? I don't think Ronin is married to this thing like the old regime was for obvious reasons. Should be interesting over the next six months.
up down down up up down up down flat down up
The search for CFO may be ongoing but in the interim they needed someone to sign for the SEC docs... per the 8k
On July 11, 2018, the Board of Directors of Avid Bioservices, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Stephen Hedberg, the Company’s Senior Director of Finance and SEC Reporting, to serve as the Company’s Principal Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer for purposes of the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The good news is Lytle is gone and good riddens...
could be both factors at play... time will tell... interesting that we held yesterday's gain...
or another capital raise .... 2.5 mil shares times $4 per share = $10 mil plus $8 mil from oncologie and some trial start milestones, say $5 mil and a bavi manuf order and the $30 mil expansion is pretty much paid for... just a WAG... given the lead time and construct time... now is the time to do it... any dilution should be outweighed by future rev potential imo...
On 5/30/18 I guessed 6 mil shares would be needed on 5/30... volume 6/22 was 6.1 mil
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141183636
Interesting dynamics in play. Russell rebalance on June 22. $165 to $170 mil market cap should be the ballpark number. My WAG is 6 mil shares will be needed.
most interesting is
Sponsor:
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Collaborator:
Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp.
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03519997?term=Pembrolizumab%2C+Bavituximab&rank=1
UTSW and Merck Keytruda trial listed on Oncologie website...
https://www.oncologie.international/ongoing-trials/
The sp games will continue until russell rebalance complete and about 6 mil shares will be in institutional hands.
Will SK get the goose egg?
geologic time "soon" ... plus or minus ten thousand years...
probably happened or happening... maybe bump .... i would not be surprised or disappointed if small capital raise (if needed) to fund expansion of vacant space... that is where the value creation will be imo... $30 mil cost to expand for $100 mil extra rev times 5 in value creation... i like that operating leverage.... expect $8 mil from oncologie for upfront plus milestones for upcoming trial starts ... the real impact of russell will be higher institutional base which should make shares harder to come by going forward... we should be an attractive takeout target soon imo...
russell... $159 mil was cutoff
http://www.ftserussell.com/index-series/index-resources/russell-reconstitution