Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jakedogman1]

back of the envelope valuation based on biologic manuf:

$100 mil rev plus add rev potential of $100 mil times 5 (less capacity loss given they will not run at 100%) less $30 mil expansion costs discounted by the time to get there. DCF models are probably being formulated per questions asked by last analyst imo. The last regime was afraid of uncovering the value and hid AVID by combining numbers.

My guess given the consolidation in the industry and probable desire for some private cdmo's to go public, CDMO could be a nice vehicle to get there.

Throw in the bavi ip option..

Oncologie is willing to spend about $200 mil on development including CDMO payments of maybe $100 mil plus the drug dev costs of my guess $100 mil. The question for me is who is behind Oncologie. At some point any significant bavi IP traction in trials will translate into some value to CDMO... but right now a free option on the IP imo... this won't drive value but might drive some institutional interest in that some folks like a free gamble.. all this will take is an astute analyst doing some homework (if the flashing lights of trial success says do your homework).. so maybe a potential $2 to $5 per share stocking stuffer within 2 years added to CDMO value

I wonder what the DCF models are looking like? I don't think Ronin is married to this thing like the old regime was for obvious reasons. Should be interesting over the next six months.