Bradford, Mark Calabria is gone. Trump is gone. Mnuchin is gone.

You’re level of accuracy is so far off. Why has JPS lost 50% value compared to Commons? Because the conversion is dead. When the former CFO of Fannie, a level you won’t even sniff, calls your investment a quagmire, best to listen ...

Commons are solidified to significantly outperform regardless of Scotus ... I don’t think too many more JPS bagholders can be created by your amateur game with your friends.

Robertus, Glen Bradford has been wrong so many times he will be wrong again. The guy is constantly wrong. The content of these messages are not important, continuing to keep folks apprised of an imminent ruling from SCOTUS gets the pipes primed ...

The real reason Bradford and his friends continue with their commons messaging is so they can get out of their quagmire trade that the CFO of Fannie who issued the same JPS Bradford and friends are in - called their Junior Preferred investment a “quagmire.”

I wouldn’t touch JPS as they’ve lost 50% of their value relative to commons once the fast recap approached died with Trump going out.

The only thing that could make Scotus rule quickly imo is the 11k documents (obviously not all) that really could go to motive.

If it is blatantly obvious the intent in the restricted documents, then Scotus could rule very quickly.

Good Luck!

Bradford, won’t be good for JPS ...

Rob, as suspected, there will be more and more opinion days announced.

The one thing about Covid is that those who can work from home have had their productivity sky rocket. Scotus is churnin' and burnin' ...

Probs a couple more opinion days announced throughout March - doesn't mean Collins, et al, but does mean Scotus is workin'!

Glen Bradford of Seeking Alpha is looking to promote Junior Preferred Shares (JPS), e.g., FNMAS, FNMAT, FNMFO, etc., to unload his JPS as well as his friends. Glen is looking to create more JPS bagholders.

Glen's track record is very, very poor. Due your due diligence before following the very poor investment advice.

Glen Bradford is looking to get more bagholders to purchase JPS so his friends and him can unload their JPS positions.

The CFO of Fannie Mae who issued the JPS shares called them a "quagmire" trade, and there is no way out of their trade for a long time.

JPS shares have lost 50% of their value relative to Common FnF shares. (Correction here)

Buyer beware!

Glen Bradford & John Carney have been wrong 100% of the time on all of their JPS guesses.

The CFO of Fannie Mae who issued the very same JPS shares Glen and John are invested in called their investment a "quagmire." That's all you need to know.

Glen Bradford of Seeking Alpha is looking to promote Junior Preferred Shares (JPS), e.g., FNMAS, FNMAT, FNMFO, etc., to unload his JPS as well as his friends. Glen is looking to create more JPS bagholders.

Glen's track record is very, very poor. Due your due diligence before following the very poor investment advice.

Glen Bradford is looking to get more bagholders to purchase JPS so his friends and him can unload their JPS positions.

The CFO of Fannie Mae who issued the JPS shares called them a "quagmire" trade, and there is no way out of their trade for a long time.

JPS shares have lost 50% of their value relative to Common FnF shares.

Buyer beware!

Skeptic - Your JPS investment is a quagmire and the CFO who issued the JPS shares your’re invested called them a quagmire.

I don’t know about you but if the Chief Financial Officer of a Fortune 50 company calls your JPS investment a quagmire, Shareholders would absolutely be selling ...

Good Luck!

Skeptic - it will happen in 90 days - pickup a drink and relax ...

It's fun to prognosticate that it will happen on each opinion day. The probability continues to go up on each opinion day ... "lighten' up, Francis ..."

Chaser - this isn't Scotus's first rodeo on high-stakes games ... They're pretty locked down on their processes and if something is leaked, pretty easy to determine who leaked and they get fired very quickly, and possibly disbarred ...

Pretty huge consequences for leaking SCOTUS info ... there goes your lucrative career and all the work put into obtaining a JD - clerking for the SC leads to great legal prosperity if desired ...

Nothing is guaranteed but Scotus has two centuries of understanding on how to protect the process ...

For those that think the case is too complicated - think again!

https://abovethelaw.com/2020/12/supreme-court-clerk-hiring-watch-the-complete-clerk-roster-for-october-term-2020/

It would be great for it to happen today but ... not holding my breath ...

Yes, June by the latest ...

Mnuchin also requested high priority ...

Bradford, I give you kudos for continually stepping up to the plate, but your tea leaves reading is batting .000 and failing again. How many times have you been wrong? Especially on the political and legal front.

I’d honestly just give up. I remember the Hackerman and Light quagmire analysis you and your friends had and that was only a couple months ago.

You may want to extend your time horizons and invest accordingly.

Skeptic - JPS is a quagmire trade. Learn it, Know it, Live it!

The former CFO of the GSEs, Tim Howard, who issued the same JPS shares you are invested in called your JPS shares a quagmire.

There is a reason the JPS shares dropped relative to Commons by %50 after the prior administration did not go for the Big Bang, which was a dud.

Good luck, JPS! Keep pounding the virtual message board pavement ...

And conveniently Bradford, late 20s/early 30s max, highlights it - with friends like JPS, who needs gov enemies ...

Way too much fuss made for someone with minimal experience...

If Scotus rules against shareholders, it will be the longest road to recapitalization. There will be no incentive to recap and there will be many attempts to reform the GSEs. Kiss conversion and dividends goodbye.

Lamberth will be DOA as Scotus will affirm that the Gov can do whatever it wants. Conservatorship rules supercede any contract rights. JPS are hilarious ....

Bradford, JPS dies if that is the case ...

Nats ...

Really? This sounds more like investment hope than reality ...

As Rob says, there is a razor thin majority. I think it is the worst possible outcome for the fast recap group, as Brown and others may make a try to revamp the GSEs while the gov still has some level of control in conservatorship.

That means a second attempt at revising the GSEs I think is on the horizon but I also think it will fail as some Dems and Reps will become, as Fence says, splintered.

The point being is the Dems will try since they have the slightest of majorities. This will take time and the Dems need to wait for Scotus.

Here is the good news if we lose at Scotus, it will be a very long recap process as Yellen and Calabria will not do anything together. A slow, methodical recap with an amended cap rule in 2024 once Calabria's tenure is up, unless he actually wants to live by his adopted saying, "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good ..." where Calabria re-proposes a cap rule to get more inline Dems and their affordable housing mandate.

If Scotus does rule in favor shareholders on the constitutional and apa issues, then Calabria is gone and I suspect a lower cap rule comes into play, e.g., bigger government to help with affordable housing vs the libertarian/free market view where the GSEs have to hold the same capital to allow the private sector (TBTF) to more easily compete with the GSEs.

A Scotus victory on rememdy - direct or indirect - solidifies common's front runner status. The indirect remedy from Scotus will be clear as day for the lower courts and summary judgements will be filed quickly, unless of course Scotus does it all themselves for judicial efficiency.

I think Carlos and Bradford are pretty close to the opposite ends of the spectrum - pretty far out on both sides ...

You guys could meet in the middle.

And Bradford is right about 10% of the time ...

LuLeVan - You know Debt to Equity restructurings are for distressed companies, right? Not ones making 15 to 20 billion per year.

You get that, right?

FOF - I see a lot of quick settlement talk. I don’t see it happening. If SCOTUS admonishes the gov for nationalizing and profiteering from FnF, a settlement would need to provide basically all the relief Collins wants.

It sets the stage for summary judgement not only in the 5th circuit’s lower court, but also at the Court of Federal Claims. Maybe Scotus does the whole thing themselves.

Restructurings are typically associated with debt, not equity ... If your fine with something close to par continue forward ...

Fast recap died with Trump and will soon be burried with Scotus - no more calabria

Plus, wouldn’t Sherrod Brown - ranking member - want to push for legislation given Dems have very simple majority to debate the merits? JPS underestimate how the Dem majority also delays “irresponsible” fast recap

Potty - we haven’t been to this rodeo before = a conservative Scotus ... JPS is forever outperformed by Commons with liquidation pref to 0 - place ur bets - hate to see longtime holders miss out!

Potty - a negative verdict from scotus delays everything for everyone JPS and Commons and makes this a long term option at that point.

Watch Ackman and the whole market start the hype bus with a positive Scotus. 15 to 30 billion per year ... it will go fast ...

Bradford, please don't tell us when this unprecedented amount of capital will be raised? Because when you do we will have to add several years onto your prognostication to be accurate given your track record ...

So in this hypothetical world, does JPS get converted before the raises? I'm assuming so ...

So liquidation pref goes to 0 and warrants settled without execution ... then we wait for ...

When will the cap rule be changed?

When will a legislative attempt be made for a utility model?

4 more years of capital retention ... What is the float after a raise? 3, 4, 5 billion max?

Good luck!

Skeptic - it's an accounting adjustment ... *sigh*

Thank you, Bryndon, for bringing clarity and facts back into the conversation. Much appreciated!

Rob, you can't ask such logical questions. It's only viewable via contrails when the fast mover has long past ...

Donot - after Scotus try $10 to $20 per share for Commons. It won't be interesting, it will be over ... After Scotus there is no JPS comparison and the conversation will be over. Ackman will have been proven correct yet again ...

Bradford - I want to be clear that the "fast recap" hope is about to be extinguished by Scotus when they remove the last bastion of the former administration's GSE policy.

Commons have been saying this for a several months now. I understand getting attached to an investment thesis and being fearful of selling ... but the longer JPS retail and boutiques wait, the worse it will be, especially looking back in 6 months ...

Once Scotus arrives, it will be too late ...

Navy & Bradford -

Navy, as usual, your timing is impeccable.

Bradford, you may want to read this article. There is already a political push for GSE reform demonstrated by these articles. It will take time ...

Good luck with Lamberth ... may you get the damages your retail friends and boutiques seek. Certainly Berkowitz, etc., will be way ahead ...

Bradford, what about Dems attempting to pass legislation on the GSEs? What about an updated Cap Rule more in line with affordable housing goals?

Already seems the think tanks are floating these ideas around.

Bradford, a series of points that really demonstrate the JPS retail and boutique miscalculations ...

First, JPS litigants are not and will not be looking to force a conversion to commons. FnF won’t do it. By the time Lamberth is ready to go in June 2022, FHFA won’t be in a position to do it. Berkowitz is also on record stating he looks forward to getting the dividends turned back on.

Second, the amount of potential change between a favorable Scotus ruling and a court date in Lamberth in Nune 2022 is huge. A favorable Scotus ruling could all but shut the door on any potential conversion. It is the proverbial long shot at best.

Third, Biden will most likely attempt to alter the GSE duopoly and will most likely fail, bu he will try with a new FHFA director. This will take time while the GSEs continue to retain earnings.

Fourth, I suspect the capital rule needs time to come down and go through proposal, public commentary, etc., so affordable housing is not affected by an oversized cap rule that was originally meant to shrink the GSE footprint. A new cap rule probably won’t be finalized until 2023, but maybe 2024, since a legislative approach may take place.

Fifth, Trump’s loss really torpedoed the fast recap plan.

Sixth, the liquidation preference being written to 0 affirms Ackman’s view Commons will outperform JPS and puts the whole debate to bed. SCOTUS may not do it themselves but an adjudication on remand or a settlement will provide very favorable terms of shareholders, which means warrants will be DOA because of the $300+ billion paid on the PSPA “principal” (LP to 0) and the warrants will be settled reasonably or cancelled outright as it is “collateral.”

Seventh, there is nothing beyond par and dividends after Trump lost. That door slammed shut after the loss and is not going to reopen, reflected in the 50% drop in JPS value compared to Commons, and the commentary from Tim Howard, former CFO of Fannie, who issued the very same JPS securities you and your retail and boutique friends are invested, said the JPS trade is a “quagmire.”

JPS does not much discuss these outstanding issues. If they did they’d strongly consider selling some or all JPS.

Bradford, good to see you’re learning Collins is asking for the LP be treated as principal on the PSPA and it be deemed paid by the $300+ billion in payments from the GSEs to Treasury. Maybe you can start with that premise for your next SA article.

If you do it will be quite hard to twist it into a beneficial JPS narrative. Please recall Tim Howard, former CFO of Fannie Mae, called the very JPS you and your friends invested in a “quagmire” trade. The very same Tim Howard who issued the shares you own.

I hate to see folks who follow an antiquated thesis miss out ...

Good luck!!!

Jog, good to see you agree at Scotus, the arguments that’ve gotten the gov as far as the 5th circuit won’t get them any further ...

FOF - the fastest thing the UST will do is see if there is enough political capital to change the duopoly. There will not be a fast raise as it goes against the safety and soundness of the mortgage market. How do you raise capital quickly only to see fees go up on mortgages?

Any changes need to be tried legislatively and FnF will be responsible for raising capital. Management isn’t going to go out and raise as fast as possible to dilute their common shareholders.

JPS is a quagmire trade. Tim Howard didn’t say it for no reason ...

Bradford, there are a million ways to restructure. Why not call a few series here and there for a couple billion a year. Here is another approach: guaranteed in the current interest rate environment FnF could finance the calling of half or all for a fraction of what the coupons state on the JPS.

There are various ways FnF could handle the JPS without diluting commons.

What is worse is you guys weren’t aware that Collins was asking for liquidation pref to go to 0. Care to comment?

Peanuts - liquidation preference to 0 is the key and is being asked for, not ending the NWS, which happens anyway.

The $300+ billion paid to the gov is to be treated as a paydown of sr preferred liquidation preference = 0. It’s just an accounting entry. Plus, shareholders is requesting $30 billion to be repaid.

Be careful with the JPS quagmire trade ... very few outs ...