Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[RumplePigSkin]

Nats ...

But in regards to the GSEs, I think there is now more agreement than there was before, including across parties.

Really? This sounds more like investment hope than reality ...

As Rob says, there is a razor thin majority. I think it is the worst possible outcome for the fast recap group, as Brown and others may make a try to revamp the GSEs while the gov still has some level of control in conservatorship.

That means a second attempt at revising the GSEs I think is on the horizon but I also think it will fail as some Dems and Reps will become, as Fence says, splintered.

The point being is the Dems will try since they have the slightest of majorities. This will take time and the Dems need to wait for Scotus.

Here is the good news if we lose at Scotus, it will be a very long recap process as Yellen and Calabria will not do anything together. A slow, methodical recap with an amended cap rule in 2024 once Calabria's tenure is up, unless he actually wants to live by his adopted saying, "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good ..." where Calabria re-proposes a cap rule to get more inline Dems and their affordable housing mandate.

If Scotus does rule in favor shareholders on the constitutional and apa issues, then Calabria is gone and I suspect a lower cap rule comes into play, e.g., bigger government to help with affordable housing vs the libertarian/free market view where the GSEs have to hold the same capital to allow the private sector (TBTF) to more easily compete with the GSEs.

A Scotus victory on rememdy - direct or indirect - solidifies common's front runner status. The indirect remedy from Scotus will be clear as day for the lower courts and summary judgements will be filed quickly, unless of course Scotus does it all themselves for judicial efficiency.