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Likewise, I am in at 21.50, which is just 8% premium, so I am really happy with that given it is usually 20%+...
Interested to see what they come up with
Fun -- and I actually trust Ackman to treat other shareholders right
Better to strike while iron is hot and crisis fresh imho -- as things settle down then target's premium's will go up...
But all good and we shall see...
I think there is a good chance that something is lined-up, then it comes down to how fast they can come to terms and move...
I think the target could be revealed alot quicker -- may well be Ackman has one on the line already...
Like you say, we shall see
Investing with Ackman, something I am happy to do, got easier since his new SPAC trades today under PSTH.U at Ameritrade...
Thought I would mention this, since the upside is high and some of you guys need a life-raft on hand...
lol, who the hell are these unnamed mortgage experts opining on SCOTUS?
Not investing on their views on SCOTUS -- TBH I am not investing on what Gaby thinks about SCOTUS, or Christian Herzeca either
I would be very, very careful taking to the bank any of these guys opinions about how SCOTUS will rule -- they could very well side with Treasury by hook or by crook
My nouveau riche relatives spell the family name with three t's, but my side of the family spells it still with just two t's
But we all pronounce it "pate" given our French heritage, so you know
BOOM BOOM... Basil Brush's punch-line for a joke...
Like Mother Theresa I go where I am needed most, hence my presence with the poor benighted souls holding common stock here
These souls refuse to convert to JPS, so I am here to ease their passage in November
;)
LOL, thanks for the laugh...
BOOM! Sub $2 TODAY
The Legion of Boom is in the crapper... and this melting little ice cube that will keep melting all the way to November...
Not the time to buy -- but then in November we see how much dilution the common get hits with...
JPS still not high price, tho I find the risks too high right now - but common vs JPS? You have to go JPS imho, since JPS GAINS from the dilution since the JPS is what gets converted to common, while common LOSES (hugely?) from dilution
Simple right?
Yeah, but they have to have actual cashflow like FnF -- though not on that scale lol -- I always regretted not going in the last SPAC that resulted in QSR... I love Popeyes growth story now, too... and that was a 20% compounded return even after CV drop
We shall see, but if you buy at $21.50 you are paying an 8% premium but this lacks the 20% founders shares etc... so right now I think this is an interesting speculation
I *hope* that they already have a fish on the line, but we shall see -- if nothing gets done before a correction then I REALLY like this since sitting leverage goes up if you have $5-7 billion in cash to dangle
Better terms than elsewhere, so... I plunged
CC, I hope they are converting to JPS if they stick with this trade. Hard to see how that does not make sense...
I bought some of the new Ackman SPAC, PSHT.U, which has some interesting features. I like the Tontine warrants a lot.
I also like this even if we have a market correction -- sitting on $3-7 billion in cash in a correction is a great place to be... Though correcting just after the IPO, not so hot lol
At least it is interesting and I like the terms. Just thought I would mention it. But I do not think FNMA is a "mature unicorn" lol
lol, I think it is very likely sub $2 this week or next -- did you notice it is pennies away?
The Legion of Boom is on the ropes
No green here...
Ackman is NOT going after FnF, since it looks like the SPAC will take control of a company and not big enough to do that to Freddie, let only Fannie...
More like a Turkey Egg... ?
The Goose Egg PT?
I really cannot see how it gets to absolute zero -- but I can see how dilution brings it closer and closer
How long till this goes sub-$2? I say we see it in August...
No idea what you are talking about? Mind clarifying?
Only red on my screens today...
As predicted, a slow bleed till November... tis a while
Skeptic, I was refering to all the BULLS here who think plaintiffs will get a favorable SCOTUS ruling...
Skeptic, I don't know what will happen with SCOTUS. But the complete certainty that SCOTUS will find for plaintiffs strikes me as utterly unwarranted. There is a good chance -- 10%? 20% -- SCOTUS finds for Treasury; also a chance -- 105? 20% -- SCOTUS does an AIG, finds for plaintiffs with no practical payoff...
I agree that many shareholders seem to not recognize the risk at SCOTUS. Given there are risks to administrative action in Fall, this is worrying all around imho
It comes down to political and economic environment in Nov and Dec... here are reasons to worry
Political: This is shaping to be a landslide rejection of the Trump WH. Once that happens then the political mandate is gone. Mnuchin would be in a VERY tough spot to think about moving ahead
Economic: The recessionary pressures have not hit yet, by Fall they might have - again, tough place for Mnuchin to be
So... real risks
I agree that is a very real possibility - the AIG scenario revisited
I do not know what the final outcome will be... shareholders could get skunked in SCOTUS. The AIG case is a sobering episode... Federal judges have NOT favored plaintiffs. Be warned
FFFacts, SCOTUS won't hear the case till the Fall, then a ruling comes in the spring -- so no surprises from SCOTUS till spring.
I think it drifts lower for 1 year, then a chance of SCOTUS reversing that -- or zeroing it out
Selling JPS now is a big gamble? lol
There is A LOT of risk here. (a) Economic risk: Calabria has explicitly said that process can only move forward if REAL economy cooperates PLUS if the market corrects in October or before then nothing doing in Nov and Dec; (b) Political: This administration is chaotic, riven and mercurial (to say the least) so after a Trump defest who knows what they do? PLUS Dem machine is owned by TBTF banks so the deep freeze awaits again if Biden wins...; (c) Legal: SCOTUS could rule for Treasury or pull an AIG, in principle win without practical payoff, going to trial has risks both ways and all most all Fed Judges have ruled for Treasury so far... there is a reason no one but the desperate go to trial.
On the other side, selling JPS leaves one with cash and all its "optionality" with a market correction looming and still plenty of great companies at bargrain prices even before such a correction
So, no, not a big gamble
I agree the JPS has multi-bagger, but I need more upside and clarity to invest since I could buy, say, RYCEF with same upside, less risk and far greater clarity
But, sincerely, GL, there is a good chance this works for JPS, I also would not own common
NOTHING happening here till November - except the slow bleed, JPS started now too... see you after Election Day or a correction
Nothing-ville goodbye!
Hi Kthomp, thanks for the very reasonable response as always. I think a wider market correction is coming so I am raising cash. I think potentially I get a chance to buy in with that correction.
I am also not sanguine about the risks with SCOTUS. Christian Herzeca (Rule of Law Guy) has been very poor at predicting what judges will do when you look at his track record. There is a reason no one like to go to trial. And I have lost faith in the competence, and sanity, of the Trump administration -- after a loss in the Presidential election what will they do? I am not sure I want to bet on that.
I can see your leeryness of market timing -- maybe the market stays crazy? I happen to think this looks a lot like the market behavior of the Great Depression. Wide retail investor participation, wild rips higher -- then wild, margin call fuelled, rips lower against the background of a grim economy...
I am keeping 40% invested in names I like that I bought at good prices I bought in March/April. I am all cash for the rest.
GL my friend, I will stop by here for your insightful and reasoned analysis to keep track of FnF, but I am off to pastures new -- Rolls Royce has multi-bagger potential with lots of stress but on issues I can research -- nothing like FnF lol
FFFacts, I am mortally certain nothing large happens till AFTER the elction. This administration has one priority, Trump's re-election, and everything has to get out of the way for that, regardless.
Maybe they can relist, but no way is there is a settlement or anything that can be characterized a giveaway to hedge-funds or donors -- not a chance.
After Trump loses is a different matter, but then the President has no reason to honor promises to donors or anyone else... and maybe he doesn't want any more controvery than will be stirred up by then? All the pardons will be a hornets nest -- maybe he says enough. Or maybe he says, might as well hang for a sheep as hang for a lamb...
So, I think it is slow bleed for the summer. We shall see if someone decides to short this or not.
FFFActs, it is not in Calabria's control alone, the Treasury has to do certain things with regard to senior pref for example. And the Treasury is controlled by the White House. Enough said for me...
there is too little rhyme or reason there at present for me.
Going to have to get cheaper, or a lot clearer, before I come back. I think I can get similar potential, with a lot more certainty, in the coming market correction...
I think there is a real possibility that the status quo stays, some powerful lobbies like it...
But what do I know? Maybe Mnuchin and Calabria have Trump's blessing? And that carries into the Fall
I just don't trust Trump to be consistent or committed...
Sure, someone is buying in based on SCOTUS decision -- but what does that show?
FFFacts, I agree there is a chance of a very good profit here IF administrative action takes
BUT I am worried about election risk and the unreliablity of this administration
There is also a good chance of a profit for JPS IF SCOTUS rules for plaintiffs
BUT I am worried that SCOTUS could rule the other way or, more likely, find some way to pull an AIG by ruling for plaintiffs in principle but yielding no payoff in practice
This has more ways to lose than people acknowledge, along with the well discussed ways to win
yeah, and it will start pricing into the JPS that no plan is forthcoming as well...
Election risk is going to be high, so too is risk that boiling mad Dems rip anything to shreds
I see commons and JPS slow bleeding till election, maybe correcting in a market correction
Opportunity for contrarians not here yet, wait till Trump election prospects are clear and that good evidence for a loss in Senate, add a side of market correction, THEN you will have your contrarian buy..
There is a reason Uncle Warren is sitting on his hands, cos the time to be greedy is not here yet in wider market OR in FnF...
Wait for August, September...
Were you being ironic? FNMA already lost the SCOTUS bounce, got to wait all the way to Nov till another catalyst -- Trump admin does NOTHING to upset election prospects, so no moves till Nov 6th
The SP is going to do its patented slow bleed -- may even do a fast bleed as Trump election prospects get clearer and clearer... and the fact that he is taking the Senate majority down with him. (Texas is now a swing state. Staggering...)
You can... or you might wait. Life just got too complicated imho...
Makes sense. My guess is all the securities grind lower with no news and collapsing wider markets aided by views of political risk for FnF