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No additional short term stocks screened out, but I added one off our main list which is still close enough to the buy range, SII. PHSY was removed as it has risen to high off support, WEN did stop out yesterday. Six stocks screened out as potential breakouts: AXL, CMLS, GGC, HYSL, PENN and ROST. Three breakdown shorts screened out: ACTL, CINF and EXAR.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
From the group strength department: >>In the Internet ISP group corrected last week, this could be the week they rebound, keep an eye on JCOM, OVER and UNTD.>>
http://www.savvy-trader.com/sectorrotation.htm
Sam
All held up to the end except AZO. Nice day under the circumstances.
Breakouts that alerted today included AZO, BBBY, BSX and LOW.
Sam
No additional short term stocks are added to the site for tomorrow, but PHSY did re-screen at a higher price level. Another eight stocks screened out as potential breakouts: AZO, BBBY, BSX, CARS, DF, DL, LOW and XTO. Three breakdown shorts screened out: AGN, BRCD and CINF.
Note that we have a position in PHSY.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Out SYMC +4.20
SII from the short term list strong today.
APOL broke out yesterday, looks to run more today.
Sam
The site has been updated for today, one additional short term pick, PHSY and more potential breakouts. No shorts screened out even though the market didn't make a dramatic improvement internally.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Commentary:
This week is going to be an uncomfortable one, being a full year since the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. I can hardly believe a year has gone by since I was standing in our office, drinking a cup of coffee and someone on CNBC commented that a friend had called him about a small plane crashing into the World Trade Center. It wasn't long before they showed the building live, but even then, the story was a side show in the middle of a bear market. Minutes later the "side show" became the main feature that consumed our day, and weeks ahead......and maybe the entire year.
Jennifer and I have tried to discuss the subject of dealing with the Savvy Trader site on September 11, 2002, and with knots in our stomachs and tears in our eyes we have so far failed to resolve the question of whether it is best to show respect by staying away from trading and CNBC, or by continuing on as usual showing that the free market capitalist system, the system the terrorists hate, continues strong despite their attack. The event a year ago will remain scar on us and on many others for generations to come, and I suppose we will all find a way to deal with it in a manner that brings our hearts to some kind of peace.
Regardless, the markets will be opening late on Wednesday.
The SSRatio is still in the negative, but could turn up early this week. And, many stocks have been making higher lows, so I remain relatively optimistic. We are in a traditionally weak season, and many believe that seasonality factors will drive us to new lows, guess we'll see.
Have a good week,
Sam
Sam@savvy-trader.com
Our estimate of market risk, a few picks for Monday and an updated table of group strength is posted at http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
Good day for the short term list:
HDWR
Buy Range $12.36-$13.07
Stop $12.23
Target $14.77
Energy-Alternatives
PTEN
Buy Range $21.04-$22.55
Stop $20.83
Target $26.04
Oil and Gas Drilling
RNR
Buy Range $33.13-$34.42
Stop $32.80
Target $38.67
Insurance
UCBH
Buy Range $37.16-$38.34
Stop $36.79
Target $42.50
Banking-West
Market risk for Friday is posted.
Another large group of stocks screened out as potential breakouts, there are three gold stocks along with a few banks, food and defense, including: AEM, ATK, BYD, CYBX, FB, HBAN, HSIC, ICBC, LLL, MDG, NEM, RTN, SJM SYK and SYY. Strangely enough, there are several potential breakdown shorts to watch: ARW, ATMI, AVT, CREE, HGSI, ICST, MXIM, PPG, QLGC, SKYW, TRN, VVTV and WAG. Lastly, there are two short term shorts, stocks that have had a bit of comeback and may be poised to start down; EVC and MATK.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
We were busy and didn't trade today, but, BUD, DF, FB, ISLE and RCII all alerted the breakout and traded higher, STE was the only alert that traded into the red by the close today.
AMAT, the only breakdown short we had, also alerted and traded down.
Sam
There is a little improvement in market risk heading into Thursday. Still, the average over the last 7 days favors selling. We did get a couple more short term stocks posted and is a bunch of potential breakouts to watch tomorrow.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Shorts panned out with a dropping SSRatio, and may again tomorrow. The picks are posted at http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
The Screened Stock Ratio dropped deeper into the negative than it was on Thursday, at -0.29 favoring selling, the estimate of market jumps right back to high. This puts us back into "lite mode."
The potential breakouts to watch: GDW, GPT, JCI, KFT, NFB, NUS, PETM, RTN, SO and UDR, alert these 20 cents above yesterdays high. Seven stocks screened out as potential shorts: CGNX, IPG, MSFT, PNX, RMD, ROIA, and XL.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Have a safe holiday everyone, we'll be in and out but mostly around...
Sam
IHub must be having problems this afternoon. APC did hit the stop, I'm afraid I still like it as a short.
NTBK alerted as a breakout long.
Sam
The long breakouts that alerted by breaking 20 cents above yesterday's high includes: GLK, BUD, BC and BMS, all have continued ... so far.
Sam
Now that APC has hit that short price, I'd set a stop about $45.11
In the short department, APC looks good to short around $44.75.
In SYMC, the risk/reward is extremely favorable.
Sam
HDWR repeated on the short term screening, and a new one, SYMC showed up. I'll post the site shortly, but one of the breakouts is ACXM, another repeat and one I still have a position in. The breakouts look interesting for tomorrow....there was also 3 shorts to look at.
Sam
Long breakout today included COCO and SJM.
Short breakdowns was only VSEA.
Sam
A look at the daily charts confirms the rollover the screening detected a couple days ago in this stocks.
Shorts have done well the last few days, there are more for tomorrow as our SSRatio has gone negative again.
The Screened Stock Ratio slipped back into the negative at -0.18 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk rises to high. This puts us back in "lite mode" for long positions, this means buy smaller than your usual long positions, keep a tighter stop, and limit the number of stops to one or two.
No additional short term stocks screened out, but neither of those below hit a stop yesterday. There are a four potential breakouts to watch: COCO, FE, GGP and SJM. There are three potential breakdown shorts, alert these 20 below yesterdays low. And, eleven potential shorts that have had a rally and look to fall to support: ADI, BRL, CHIR, CINF, CPTS, EVC, HSP, NOVN, UVN, XL and XLNX.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Ended the day with almost half the short list down over a point or more. I'm afraid I didn't get one of them, but someone did well shorting BRL yesterday <g>.
Sam
CVTX and BRL (from both yesterday and today's list) continued down hard today.
Sam
The shorts once again take the cake. I hope we see a rebound this afternoon, I'd hate to go back into "lite" mode for the longs, but at this rate it looks more and more likely.
Sam
Our estimate of market risk is posted.
No additional short term stocks screened out, and HLYW hit its stop. There are a three potential breakouts to watch: ALLY, NEM and XTO. And, nine potential shorts to look at today: ACE, ARW, BRL, EVC, IFIN, MET, MOLX, NOVN and XL. These shorts are not breakdown, they have rebounded and may be heading back down, (a reverse of a short term trade) and don't really have an alert price. Unlike the breakouts/breakdowns where it is best to let them break their previous days high or low before looking to take a position.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
HRB news from Briefing.com:
16:41 ET HRB H & R Block beats by 11 cents, raises guidance (50.89 -0.12) Reports Q1 pro forma EPS of $0.01, $0.11 better than the Multex consensus; revs were $431.4 mln, vs consensus of $389.6 mln. Co also raises FY03 guidance to $2.80-$3.00 and 10-15% rev growth, vs previous guidance of $2.60-$2.75.
Sam
Good day, even in a down market. I'd expect this to pull our indicators down, hopefully not back to "lite" mode, we'll see.
Sam
Yesterdays shorts are making the big gains today. Right now CVTX, on todays watchlist, is hitting resistance at 25.50 and could be an opportunity here.
Sam
The only breakout long that alerted this morning was MDG, shorts continue to be the play.
Sam
Today was a good demonstration on the influence of the "market" on the individual stock.
Sam
Still no additional short term stocks screened out, but none on the current list have hit their stop. There are a five potential breakouts to watch: BUD, LEN, MDG, NSC and TOL. And, two potential shorts to look at tomorrow: BRL and CVTX.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
This weeks Journal commentary:
It has now been a full year since we started the weekly Savvy Trader Growth Stock Journal. A time for a little reflection and grounding is in order. With the first year of publication in the middle of a bear market, hopefully, the second will be the beginning of a bull, but in any case, we plan on continuing to provide the information necessary for Capital Growth and Preservation.
We started the STGSJ to go back to the roots of the style of trading that I grew up on, that being short term position trading. The idea was that we would meet a larger audience of folks who don't spend their days in front of a quote screen. And get away from the daytrading mindset, which had caused so many people to lose money in an area which the risk wasn't defined and most were ill suited for. Additionally, we hoped to transfer much of the workload from the daily to the weekly Journal. Frankly, after 3 years, both Jennifer and I were drained after spinning our wheels 18 hours a day 6 days a week.
So, what has worked, what hasn't and what can be improved upon?
The short term trading has worked as expected, trading stocks in strong groups between support and resistance when the market risk is favorable does provide capital growth with preservation. It has allowed us to follow a select group of stocks and "know" them much better. And to tighten the criteria on both our Category 1 and 3 stock scans which reduced the number of stocks we had to review, while improving the percentage of profitable positions.
As far as the audience goes, I still believe there was, and is, a migration of sorts, from daytrading and long term investing to short term and positions trading where one pays attention to risk. Though still small, our membership has increased three fold during the last year. However, it still fails to pay for the time and site costs, but gets closer by the month.
In part, while we started doing the Journal and modified the daily for better short term trading ideas, we still spend a large amount of time looking at stocks, answering e-mail and membership services, so we have not yet achieved a good balance of our time. At some point, we hope to be able to hire help with some of the duties so we can expand service without consuming more of our limited time.
There is still no site or newsletter that compares to Savvy Trader in providing the best market risk, group strength, and outstanding stock picks with defined risk/reward......at an incredibility low price too.
But, we need your input, to grow and improve we need to know that we are providing a service that you can use. So, please, please drop me a note with any feedback you might have.
Have a good week,
Sam
Sam@savvy-trader.com
Shorts look like they will be the plays today. I didn't one when they were upticking due to computer or Qcharts freezing up.
Sam
There was lots of rotation in the stocks between 80 and 90 in relative strength, but as usual, the top from 90 up, changed very little.
It is interesting to note that some formerly strong groups are on the way back up again. Take a look at Leisure-Products, Insurance-Accident and Health and Textile-Mill/Household, all groups that were at the top not too many months ago. On the other end, a few groups seem to be falling out fast, Aerospace/Defense Equipment, Shoes and Related Retail and Containers all had top spots during the last few months.
Since West/Southwest Banks are holding the second from the top I thought it would be worth finding a few stocks in the group that have good fundamentals and trade with decent volume. I found only SWBT and EWBC to be worth a look.
In the Internet ISP group I still think JCOM, OVER and UNTD are worth keeping an eye on.
Falling out of the top 80 and up is Oil & Gas-Field Services, Retail Restaurants and Retail-Misc/Diversified (both after making a one week comebacks), BLDG-Hand Tools and Pollution Control Services.
The table of the groups is posted at http://www.savvy-trader.com/sectorrotation.htm
Sam