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ZM 50x sales sure sounds uber-rich to me. Tried to short at 63 but ATurd rejected my order. That's one way to keep the price up.Does anyone know when the public is allowed to short these new IPOs?
I had envisioned the market making a double top which is just about where we are now. But with the improving economic news we've been seeing and the Fed having backed off of tightening and rate increases, I'm now inclined to think the market can break into new highs soon.
FBIO has its hands in and/or has spun off a number of interesting startups.
With a market cap of less than 100 mil and way below its 52 week high of 4.52, this one looks interesting to me.
Took a flier in it at 1.70 which is near its low for the day after that MBIO news.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4249690-plenty-upside-fortress-biotech
TGB Decided to take a look at this one after R59 has made several bullish comments on it, even though I had sworn off penny stocks, particularly penny mining stocks, years ago.
TGB looks very interesting with that Florence mine update last Friday.That mine looks very promising assuming it gets permitted to go to full commercial production. The after tax NPV of that mine alone with $3 copper is $750 million. That is very impressive considering that the current market cap of TGB is $160 million and that TGB also has other mines including a profitable one at Gibraltar. The Gibraltar mine will help pay for developing Florence over the next 2 years.
The biggest risk I see is that TGB will not get permitted for full scale development at Florence. Altough TGB has demonstrated that the leaching of the mine does not pose hazards to the environment or local water tables, the Florence, AZ city council is against it.
I think it is worth the risk here. I broke my "penny stock" rule and opened a position in TGB.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254264-taseko-mines-great-news-florence-project
OK Mr. Market:
Please feel free to melt me up, up and away!
NWHM I also picked up a small position in this one last week. The huge discount to BV is a big part of the reason. Q4 looked so bad because they wrote down some inventory in a couple of high end CA projects. CA, a high cost and high tax state, is not the best one for homebuilders but this one has branched out with operations in AZ which is a strong area. The company was also buying back a bunch of shares in Q4 at $8.50 average, so at $5 now, this one sure looks cheap. I think it can get back to that $8.50 area if they show some good results.
Just for fun, I also picked up a few shares in HOV. I consider it to be a call option on a homebuilder. This one has made many missteps and not treated shareholders well at all. It also is very volatile and is now trading at only 25% of its 52 week high. It could well double if the low interest rates boost the group like I think they will.
MU Wade, that chart on Dram prices is misleading: The DXI index has dropped from 28000 to about 23000 in the last 5 months (the first integer is not shwn on the chart for some reason. While that is a big drop, prices are still WAY above their lows back in the last cycle low in 2016. Then, it went way down to 5000 or so. MU remains quite profitable at current levels, I would not short it but I have cut back on my holdings. Best, Cliff
LPI I agree, reserves are based on actual production of operating wells. If their plan to use wider spacing between new wells increases their oilyness, then their oil reserves will go back up. LPI looks cheap to me, assuming that plan works.
AAL Fwiw, I did bail out of AAL yesterday. Higher fuel costs, coupled with no hedging, really clouds the outlook of this one, imo.
LPI looks interesting. Any updates on those Warburg Pincus sales? Big mgmt changes have recently occurred too. I wonder if that means a bad "kitchen sink" quarter is coming? Earnings come out at the end of April, but I see that the analysts only expect about 9c eps, so maybe this is about the low point. It sure looks cheap, especially if oil prices stay higher and they can increase their % of oil in production.
MU Would like to know the details of that MS report. If they are saying that inventories relative to sales are at 25 year highs, that is significant. If they they mean absolute inventories that means little as Dram chip sales are 10 X higher (or more) than they were 25 years ago.
Noticing that Dram chip prices keep dropping on dramexhange.com. Then today I see that Samsung is warning of a 60% drop in profits in Q1 yoy. Of course, Samsung is much bigger than memory chips but chips have been their bread and butter. Decided to lighten up again on my MU holdings at 43.25
LGIH Took my profits in this one at 63. Reason is that they report monthly closings every month. A year ago for March2018, they reported a blow out number so it will make for a real tough comparison when they report March 2019 numbers in the next day or two. Still like the home builders with the big drop in interest rates including CCS, MHO,WLH, and TMHC (new buy).
PVAC Why have analyst earnings estimates dropped by more than a third for the next 2 quarters in the last month or so? I was looking at this one but seeing that made me back off.
CCL Anyone enjoy cruising on ships? How about a investing in a cruise ship stock with a nice 4% dividend?
CCL has been beat up in the last few days, down about 12%. They met earnings estimates but they guided down this years earnings by 20c, from $4.65 to $4.45 eps. The reason for the drop is not that business is weak (bookings are up yoy and the CEO sounds optimistic). It was due to currency exchange rates and increased fuel costs.
At 11X, fPE, this one is quite cheap comparedto others like RCL. I think investors have over-reacted and the stock will bounce back. Plus it pays a nice 4% dividend while I wait.
Another bonus for stock holders that take a cruise, the company offers an additional discount in the form of cabin credits to those who go on a cruise. Princess, which is a division of CCS, and my favorite cruise line will give me up to a $250 discount on my next cruise with them. I've been buying at just over $50/ share.
OBCI I don't have a horse in this one either but this company is big in boating products and cleaners. Boating is a very seasonal business so I don't think a soft quarter in the winter means much at all.
LEN Despite a small miss in eps (72c vs 74c est), Stock is up 6% after mgmt reported stronger traffic due to lower interest rates. KBH is also 2% higher after reporting earnings and making similar positive comments.
I did close out my position in LEN this morning as I think it has gotten ahead of itself today. I remain a strong bull on the homebuilders with the big drop in interest rates. The 10 year is way down to 2.36 today!
MU Sold a little more than half my position on the big run-up after earnings came out last week. Expect to buy back somewhere in the upper $30s.
WLH Homebuilders continue mostly higher even in Friday's big market drop as interest rates have quickly been falling which makes homes more affordable for buyers.
This morning I reopened a position in WLH after being out of it for over a year. It has been one of the slower to recover as it is more leveraged than many. But at only .76X tangible BV it is the cheapest out there right now, IMO. It's also been in a trading range for the last couple of months but I expect it will likely break out on the upside sooner rather than later.
I also particularly like CCS, MHO, and MDC in the sector.
This saturday morning, Bloomberg is showing the DOW futures at 25,570, down 441. Since they closed at 25502 yesterday, they would appear to pointing to a modestly higher open now.
I don't know where they get those numbers but I keep hearing that if someone wants to trade 24 hours a day they can.
One day like Friday is enough for me, at least for awhile.
DNR Thanks skillz, I also see now that they have a large amount of debt coming due in 2021. If they can get it refinanced, it will likely be at a higher rate which will squeeze them even more.
PVAC and DNR merger off. I never could understand the logic of one debt loaded company buying another one. Curious, skillz, as to whether you have an opinion on DNR? As I said, they have lots of debt but also have a super low PE and PEG ratio like PVAC does. DNR also trades well under tangible BV here.
A big factor with both is where oil prices go from here. I remain mildly bullish on that.
I think some of the Fed rate increases were warranted. After years of tepid growth, the economy finally picked up sme steam in 2017. A reduced regulatory environment and fiscal stimulus including large tax cuts all contributed. Did the Fed raise too much? I would say yes, but I also have the benefit of hindsight. When they said they were raising rates so they could lower them again if they needed to: That, IMO, was wrong.
The logic of that escapes me: Continually and quickly raise rates so that when the economy slows down from that, we will then have more room to lower them again.
???
I'll agree with you hweb. The Fed has gone from predicting 3 to 2 to 1 and now to zero rate inreases in 2019 in just a matter months. Not only that but they are now predicting just 1 rate increase in 2020. How can they predict over a year from now when they can't predict even a few months out?
They always say they are data dependent, they should just leave it at that.
NRZ btw, CEO must like this one as he bought 60.000 more shares one month ago today at 16.50.
Government 10 year at 2.44 s now below 3 month rate at 2.45.
The Fed's next move may now be a Fed-rate reduction.
The German 10 year bond is now at a negative yield!
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us
MU Lightened up on my long position in the high 43s. That's over a 9% gain today alone. Company expects a recovery in the 2nd half of the calendar year but I see the China trade issues as the big gorilla in the room. China has been backtracking on issues like IP and the expected meeting between US and China leaders has been moved back to June. That leaves lots of time for investors to fret about the on off trade deal and if it goes off, MU is in the crosshairs.
Still like this one but I expect I'll be able to buy those shares back at a cheaper price.
Sorry Wade, but I think your bearish stance is unduly influenced by your uber short position in the market now. Personally, I think the market is fairly valued now but I also think it is a waste of time to try and time it. It is tough enough to pick individual stocks, IMO.
MU Yes, I'm also seeing a number of analysts turn more bearish on MU recently due to continued drops in Dram prices. I have also noticed that the newer DDR4 chips have been dropping faster than any. Today alone, dram exchange shows a drop of little over 2% in them. On the other hand, most of MU's chip sales are under contract and contract prices have been dropping less. DXI, an index of contract prices is down from a peak of 28000 last fall to 24,200 today. That is a substandtial drop, but let's not forget that the DXI hit a low of 6000 in the bottom of the last cycle back in 2016. They are still WAY above those levels. MU remains a money making machine at current levels.
I remember last summer when most all ofthe analysts had $80- $120 price targets on MU. They were wrong then. The question is are they wrong again now that they have turned more bearish??
I'm cautious, but at a SP under $40, I'm inclined to hold my shares and take my chances into earnings. As usual, I'm expecting lots of volatility. I may well add or sell based on which way it heads after earnings come out.
SYNA tanking today on news the CEO is leaving immediately and they will hit the lower end of their current guidance for the current quarter.This is on top of the news that the CFO departed last month for another job.
I'm tempted to get back in as it is down 22% now but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Lots to ponder here.
I wouldn't say that the Fed has been super dovish since December. If they were, they would be dropping their fed funds rate and going back to QE. I would say that the Fed has been neutral since December with no changes in rates and none forecast in the near future. They also have backed off from QT but have not gone back to QE.
The Fed has taken a neutral stance which seems appropriate considering economic conditions of slowing growth.
NIO I read that China is making a huge push for electric cars so that is a plus. Years ago, I swore off Chinese stocks because of all the ones that turned out to be frauds. Not saying that is the case with NIO but it does make my life simpler with plenty of US stocks to pick from. Good luck!
NIO Lots of bad news for the market to digest on this one here:
Big drop in Sales:
For the first quarter of 2019, the Company expects:
Deliveries of the ES8 to be between 3,500 and 3,800 vehicles, representing a decrease of approximately 56.1% to 52.4% from the fourth quarter of 2018.
Total revenues to be between RMB1,390.9 million (US$202.3 million) and RMB1,515.7 million (US$220.5 million), representing a decrease of approximately 59.5% to 55.9% from the fourth quarter of 2018.
While the market anticipated deliveries and sales to be down materially in the seasonally slow Q1, guidance is actually trailing current consensus estimates by more than 30%.
IPO lock up period ends this week too.
Cancelled their plans for new plant in Shanghai too. Also coming competition from Tesla as they establish a plant in China.
The bull market started on its record 11th year today. It's a long way from that intraday low of 666 on the sp500 back on march 9, 2009. Although it's an old bull, it still feels to me like it can go further. Interest rates are low, fwd PEs are not out of line, and the economy is still doing well.
BA those new MAX planes may just need a software update or it could also be that the pilots need more training on this new plane. Personally, I wouldn't short this one.
I've never heard of the Fed buying stocks either. I suppose that they could if their charter allowed it but they would not be doing so when the market is close to record highs, only during a deep and severe marekt plunge caused by some crisis that threatened our financial system.
ELSE Seems odd this one would be trading near 52 week lows after that good quarter.I noticed that the 51% majority owner passed away 2 years ago. It could be that her estate was settled last year and one or more of the heirs has been selling. Seems to be plenty of shares available at 3.35. I picked up a few thousand and looks like maybe someone else here did too. Let's mop up those cheap shares.
I agree that the downside is limited and it looks underpriced. Thanks for pointing it out.
of course the copper stocks will likely go down if the market goes into a correction phase. But I think that is also virtually impossible to predict where the general market goes from here.
Copper futures were up another 1-2c today. Fwiw, I opened a small position in FCX.
TOL reported a nice beat in earnings reporting 76c vs 61c estimate. Revs also beat. Weird that it was up nearly 5% AH but then quickly sold off in regular trading today. Still down but it has come back somewhat. At any rate, I added some shares on the earlier sell off. Company portrayed a positive outlook but declined to provide guidance past the next quarter due mainly too recent flux in traffic and interest rates(now favorable)
Toll Brothers +4.5% after fiscal Q1 blows away consensus
Feb. 26, 2019 4:51 PM ET|About: Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)|By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) gains 4.5% in after-hours trading after Q1 EPS of 76 cents beats the average analyst estimate of 61 cents and revenue of $1.36B, which beat the consensus estimate by $100M.
Earnings report:
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17425521-toll-brothers-reports-fy-2019-1st-quarter-results
Back in 2011, it turned out that many chinese companies traded on our exchanges turned out to be frauds, Cheating by the Chinese is also a big reason why we are in a trade war with them now.
I'm not saying that NIO is a fraud but there are plenty of other places to make money out there without investing in another chinese company for me.
I'll pass.