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China to remove import tax on alumina, copper, coal
Wed Dec 26, 2007 10:18am GMT
BEIJING, Dec 26 (Reuters) - China will remove import duties on alumina, refined copper and coal, while raising export taxes on some steel products, coking coal and coke to boost imports of raw materials and curb profits on exports of polluting products, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.
Export taxes on semi-finished steel products will be raised to as much as 25 percent and a 15 percent export tax will be imposed on some stainless steel, welded pipes and other steel products in an effort to cool investment in the steel sector, the ministry said, confirming what industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
Reducing import taxes on alumina and copper would smooth the flow of raw materials into China, while pressuring margins for alumina refiners and copper smelters that are already struggling with overcapacity.
The current import tax for alumina is 3 percent while the import tax for refined copper is 2 percent. Imports from Chile, a major exporter with a bilateral free trade agreement with China, are already duty-free.
The new taxes will take effect on Jan 1.
Exporters of coking coal will now have to pay a 5 percent tax and coke exporters a 25 percent tax. But the 3 percent import tax on anthracite and coking coal will be removed.
The changes are likely to raise international prices of products for which China is a major supplier, such as steel and coke, while further damaging margins for Chinese producers.
The changes in the way China taxes its coal trade reflects its shift to a net importer of the fuel for several months this year, as its booming economy, combined with a crackdown on unsafe mining, limits its ability to meet domestic demand.
China increased the export tax on low-grade zinc to 15 percent, but kept the export tax on refined lead unchanged at 10 percent. Imposition of the lead tax this summer caused international prices to surge, but also raised costs for Chinese smelters by making imported concentrate more expensive.
It will remove the export tax on aluminium alloy.
They say there are four stages of life:
1. You believe in Santa Claus.
2. You don’t believe in Santa Claus.
3. You become Santa Claus.
4. You look like Santa Claus.
Merry Christmas!
AEY- Thanks R59. Good to hear AEY is on the radar of the IBD momo crowd. I'm holding my shares.
KSW is another one I've been holding and molding for quite some time. Looks fairly cheap with @ a 11 p/e, but it's the $101 million + in backlog and the $3/share on the balance sheet that makes KSW look extremely undervalued and safe.
r59-might AEY qualify for the IBD list after their latest earnings report? Thanks
Metals up big pre-market, Copper currently up over .11 to 3.08, Gold up 10.4, Silver up .185, etc. Might be a good day for juniors as the tax loss selling ends and metals prices jump.
LME copper rises after Asian advance
Fri 21 Dec 2007, 13:39 GMT
By Daniel Magnowski
LONDON (Reuters) - London copper futures rose more than 2 percent on Friday, following a surge in a Chinese market that shrugged off another interest rate rise on expectations of strong demand, analysts said.
Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME), often seen as a reliable indicator of real economic activity, was up $160 from Thursday's close at $6,690 per tonne by the end of the official open outcry session.
Earlier, prices in Shanghai rose 4 percent on the expectation that even the sixth increase in Chinese rates this year would not lessen the country's appetite for metals.
"The LME is following the Asian markets, where Shanghai went limit-up," said UBS analyst Robin Bhar, explaining how prices rose the maximum ratio allowed by the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Traded volumes on the LME were low, with investors unwilling to make big moves in the run-up to the Christmas holidays.
"Liquidity has almost dried up, and people are more concerned about book-squaring rather than taking on any risk," Bhar said.
In such markets, prices can easily be shifted.
"Trading conditions are thin, and it does not take much to induce a rather sizable move either direction," Edward Meir at MF Global said in a report.
China raised interest rates on Thursday, the latest in a series of measures to quell inflation and prevent the economy from overheating, though this did not dampen sentiment in the metals markets.
Expectations of continued strong demand for metal in China, the world's biggest user, is crucial to copper prices that have been hit, along with other assets, by the credit crunch and fears about the severity of an economic slowdown.
"Even assuming a further slowing of U.S. metals demand, the strength of consumption in other parts of the world means that supply will continue to struggle keeping up," Barclays Capital said in a note.
"Inventory levels will stay low and in a number of markets, including copper, nickel and tin, inventory levels early in 2008 are forecast to fall to fresh lows in the current cycle."
At current levels, copper prices are around 5 percent higher than at the start of three year, but more than $2,000 below the peak they hit in 2006.
Lead was untraded but rose $23 to a quoted $2,625/2,626 per tonne after surging in the previous session on news that refiners in China had shut down more than 400,000 tonnes of lead refining capacity.
Aluminium was up $8 at $2,415 per tonne, nickel was up $600 at $26,850 per tonne, zinc was up $60 at $2,370/2,390 per tonne and tin was up $300 at $16,500 per tonne.
In industry news, the world's biggest primary aluminium producer, Russia's United Company RUSAL, said it would buy a 25 percent stake in compatriot miner Norilsk Nickel.
The move is an initial step towards the creation of what would be Russia's first diversified mining firm on a scale to rival world leader BHP Billiton.
On the London stock market, BHP shares were up 2.2 percent and Anglo American up 3 percent as part of a broader rally.
RIMM earnings and Goldman Sach comments propping up the pre-market
Goldman's Cohen tells paper U.S. recession unlikely
Fri Dec 21, 2007 3:46am EST
BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States economy is unlikely to slip into recession, Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in remarks published on Friday.
"That does not mean that the probability of a recession is zero. We just think that a slowing in growth is more likely than a recession," Cohen told Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.
"The Federal Reserve has shown in recent weeks that it is paying attention and that it wants to boost people's confidence," she added.
While there was weakness in U.S. housing construction and some areas of private consumption, this would be offset by export growth and corporate investment, she said.
Goldman expected U.S. economic growth of 1.8 percent next year, weaker than other institutions are predicting, she said, adding that the bank nonetheless viewed shares as undervalued.
Some finance companies would report terrible earnings figures for the fourth quarter but Goldman still expected single digit profit growth for next year overall.
The "fair value" for the Standard & Poors 500 Index .SPX of top U.S. companies for the end of 2008 was 1,675 points, up from around 1,460 now, Cohen said.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI would be around 14,750 at the end of next year, compared with just over 13,000 now, she estimated.
Cohen told the paper that the trend in U.S. inflation would remain moderate. Central banks did not have to worry about wage increases and could concentrate on the current problems on financial markets.
"It's true that over the past week there was some confusion among investors over the Fed's communication but you have to look to the longer term," she said.
"The decisive factor is that central banks have acted in close cooperation and that is an enormously important signal to the markets as to the availability of liquidity."
"I am increasingly optimistic: when we are into 2008 everyone will see that the central banks did the right thing."
(Reporting by Iain Rogers; editing by David Stamp)
I'm kidding since the spread between the bid and ask is 66% but this does have a low float and Frost and his crew have been known to buy large amounts of stock in the open market, so it could get exciting here....waiting for another filing or pr to tell us what lies ahead....
if a 100 share purchase makes the stock go up 66%, imagine what a 1000 share purchase will do! lol
patiently waiting to see what Frost has up his sleeve for LGFC.......
Liberty Provides Update on Exploration and Operations
Monday December 17, 7:30 am ET
EDMONTON, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Dec. 17, 2007) - Liberty Mines Inc. ("Liberty or the Corporation") (TSX VENTURE:LBE - News) is pleased to announce that all results from the definition drilling at the McWatters Mine have now been received. Some highlights of the recent results include 1.65% Ni over 39.75 metres, including 2.95% Ni over 17.25 metres and 7.51% Ni over 4.95 metres; and 0.91% Ni over 51.40 metres, including 2.05% Ni over 9.40 metres. All results from the drill program will be used to update the database compiled from previous resource drilling. A National Instrument 43-101 updated resource/reserve calculation is underway and will be released in Q1 2008.
A few of the recent results are summarized in the following table:
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Hole Number From (m) To (m) Interval (m) Ni%
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MCW-07-67 115.55 134.80 19.25 1.04
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Including 2.70 5.46
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MCW-07-84 90.50 141.90 51.40 0.91
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Including 9.40 2.05
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MCW-07-85 72.50 108.50 36.00 1.04
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MCW-07-90 116.00 155.75 39.75 1.65
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Including 17.25 2.95
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And 4.95 7.51
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MCW-07-123 151.50 160.50 9.00 1.31
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Including 3.00 3.27
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Borehole Coordinates
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Collar Coordinates
------------------------------------------
Hole Number Easting Northing Elevation Azimuth Dip
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MCW-07-67 10031.08 4958.75 1292.12 360 -77
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MCW-07-84 9985.69 4950.34 1292.39 360 -76
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MCW-07-85 9985.69 4950.34 1292.39 360 -67
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MCW-07-90 9970.09 4908.24 1292.47 360 -60
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MCW-07-123 9970.09 4908.24 1292.47 360 -70
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The core lengths presented in the above table are the intersected core lengths and do not represent true widths. The composite lengths are core weighted.
The portal at the McWatters Mine is complete and ramp development will begin very soon. The settling and treatment ponds are well underway, the shop building structure is erected and the power line to the McWatters Mine site is in progress.
Three drills are presently at the Hart nickel project; two of them infill drilling to approximately the 500m level below surface, and a larger one drilling at approximately the 700m level. Drill results for the Hart project have been delayed because of the many McWatters drill cores that had to be logged and analysed, but are expected to be received shortly from the ALS CHEMEX Laboratory and will be promptly released.
The head frame at the Redstone Mine has been installed. The hoist, hoist house and the collar house as well as the head frame cladding are expected to be complete in February 2008. The decision of when to begin the shaft sinking will then be made as capital spending for development of the McWatters Mine during the first 5 months of 2008 will take priority.
During the fourth quarter of 2007 to December 14, Liberty produced 803,525 pounds of dry nickel in concentrate from the Redstone Mill which has been sent to Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Company Ltd. of China and, since November 16, to Xstrata Nickel in Sudbury.
An agreement for the articles from which an Impact Benefit Agreement ("IBA") will be constructed was recently signed with the Mattagami, Matachewan and Wahgoshig First Nations. The IBA covers Liberty's existing 12,000 ha and future acquisitions of nickel mining claims and leases in the Shaw Dome Nickel Belt located approximately 25 km southeast of Timmins, Ontario. A formal signing ceremony will take place early in 2008.
Drilling at the McWatters project was supervised by Liberty's Vice President of Exploration, William Randall MSc (Geology), Tyron Breytenbach BSc (Geology) and by Richard Allard P. Geo., a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101. According to the company sampling protocol, half of the diamond drill core is sampled and sent to ALS CHEMEX in Timmins to be prepared for analysis. The prepared samples are then forwarded to the ALS CHEMEX Laboratory in Vancouver for analysis. Base metal values are analyzed by aqua regia digestion and ICP-AES finish. A rigorous QA/QC program is implemented consisting of regular insertion of standards and blanks to ensure laboratory integrity.
About Liberty Mines Inc.
Liberty Mines Inc. is a producer of nickel and is focused on the exploration, development and production of nickel, copper, cobalt and platinum group metals from its properties in Ontario, Canada.
smoke, I've been reading the LBE stockhouse board for the last couple of weeks and, according to posters there, the family of the miner killed wanted this tragedy handled privately. Apparently CEO Nash met with the miner's family and agreed to keep the name private. The mine operations were down for 2.5 days. I don't know any other details but it doesn't sound like LBE is involved in a cover up.
"Give money to Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul on his Dec. 16 Boston Tea Party anniversary fundathon."
Seems like one for the survey board, not the value microcap board. I just re-read the IBox and have no idea how this nightly barrage of macro-economic apocalyptic copy-and pastes have fits in with the stated focus of discussing "profitable, low p/e, value stocks."
LBE: here is an analysis posted on stockhouse worth reading:
---------------------------------------------------------
SUBJECT: An optimistic point of view. Posted By: BubaBob
Post Time: 12/13/2007 19:23
« Previous Message Next Message »
I’ve been in since 0.20 and have accumulated on the way up and again recently without selling a single share. I have a significant position in LBE and like many other shareholders I wish I had spent more time analyzing the impacted of the LME fiasco and the delays in getting McWatters permitted. If I had, I probably would have been cautious and sold enough above $4.00 to retire, but I was on cruise control knowing that this is a very safe long term investment. I also had a serious hand injury back in June and wasn’t much into typing this summer.
I haven’t seen Salman’s analysis and estimates, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense that they expect earnings to decline from 2008 thru 2010. The mill will not be running at full tilt until the 4th quarter 2008 and will continue to run that way through to the end of 2010 with existing anticipated (NI 43-101) reserves from McWatters and Hart.
The following is the way I see this playing out.
There will be a few small investors who will sell out of fear, due to a lack of understanding. And there will be those that will take there tax losses prior to year end knowing that the stock price will probably be suppressed for the 1st qtr 2008 and they can likely get back in. But the overall volume to trade at these low prices will not be enough to sell a large position and be confident that it will go lower. And those that realize what they have are not going to take the risk of being left out. Those that have sold will be scurrying to get back in as the share price steadily moves up and levels off in Jan-Mar 2009.
The following is calculated assuming ni $12.00lb and the new NI 43-101 proves this possible.
2008
1st qtr.........Redstone........@ 200 tpd @ 2.32%
.....Cash Flow $3.4M
2nd qtr.........Redstone........@ 200 tpd @ 2.32%
................McWatters.......@ 400 tpd @ 0.60%
.....CF $5.9M
3rd qtr.........Redstone........@ 200 tpd @ 2.32%
................McWatters.......@ 500 tpd @ 0.60%
................................@ 400 tpd @ 2.77%
.....CF $17.4M
4th qtr.........Redstone........@ 200 tpd @ 2.32%
................McWatters.......@ 500 tpd @ 0.60%
................................@ 800 tpd @ 2.77%
.....CF $33M
I expect Hart to be fully permitted in the 1st qtr of 2009 and the new NI 43-101 for both McWatters and Hart will show that there is enough high grade ore to supply the mill at capacity (1500tpd) through to the end of 2010, generating cash flow of approximately $125 million per year. There is definitely enough lower grade ore and I have used that lower grade ore in my projection.
The Redstone shaft will be completed in 2009 and will be mined at 300tpd but the shaft has a capacity of 1200tpd so there is some flexibility to ensure the mill is run at optimum capacity.
When the mill is at capacity the operational costs per lb will be nearly half of what they are currently and means that our break even point will be LME @ $4.50/lb
My projection shows EPS using 80,542,506 shares(as per the TSE website) as follows
$04.50/lb…….$0.00
$10.00/lb…….$0.83
$12.00/lb…….$1.12
$14.00/lb…….$1.41
$16.00/lb…….$1.72
$18.00/lb…….$2.00
I expect nickel prices to remain strong through 2008 with a possible decline in 2009. But prices are staying relatively high despite a 5yr LME inventory high, which implies to me that prices are not going down, especially in the new year when supplies begin to dwindle.
FNX had EPS of $1.12 as of the 12 months ended Sep 30, 2007 and a share price of approximately $30.00. That’s a P/E ratio in excess of 26. It’s been a long time since I’ve looked at FNX in detail but as I recollect they have well in excess of 10Million tonnes of resource. Which obviously accounts for their P/E.
I think it is fair to expect a P/E of 4-7 for LBE, which equates to a share price estimate of $4.48-$7.84 at full production, when nickel is at $12.00/lb
Unfortunately we currently don’t have the reserves to support a higher P/E, but we do have enough for the next 3-5 years which gives us plenty of time and cash to prove up, acquire or partner up, with the likely hood of increasing those reserves and our P/E ratio.
I believe this to be almost a given, considering the success we have had over the last 2 years. You can perhaps fault GN for being a little to aggressive and optimistic about setting timeframes that may not have been attainable, but you can’t fault him for what has actually been accomplished in such a short time frame. You also can’t fault GN for forecasting cash flow requirements and PP based on LME nickel prices that were negatively impacted by LME changing the rules in the middle of the game. Perhaps GN could have taken the long hole approach with McWatters from the start and he possibly could have started the permitting process sooner in anticipation of a faulty bureaucratic system, but I don’t know all the details. I hope that the Hart permitting timeline has some fudge factoring in it to ensure it is ready when needed. However, I’m personally very pleased with the progress that has been made to date, just not with the current share price.
It seems hard to imagine how anyone would give up their shares at this price, when they are in for at least a triple(conservatively) in the next 12-15 months, with little or no risk. And if you hold for 3-5 years while the mill keeps generating huge cashflow, GN has the time to surprise us with an additional few million tonnes of resource, at which time you can expect a higher P/E.
And don’t forget about McAra, with the available cash flow in 2009 this could quickly become a reality, considering the high Cobalt price this could significantly increase EPS as would re-permitting the Redstone mill for 2000tpd.
lol
My friend sent me this forwarded message from his friend:
------------------------------------------------------
Unconfirmed but from a good source… one of my moles at MLB
The list may contain more names but you can be certain these names will be on there, linked to steroids, HGH or some other performance enhancer
Brady Anderson
Manny Alexander
Rick Ankiel
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Aaron Boone
Rafaeil Bettancourt
Bret Boone
Milton Bradley
David Bell
Dante Bichette
Albert Belle
Paul Byrd
Wil Cordero
Ken Caminiti
Mike Cameron
Ramon Castro,
Jose Canseco
Ozzie Canseco
Roger Clemens
Paxton Crawford
Wilson Delgado
Lenny Dykstra
Johnny Damon
Carl Everett
Kyle Farnsworth
Ryan Franklin
Troy Glaus
Rich Garces
Jason Grimsley
Troy Glaus
Juan Gonzalez
Eric Gagne
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
Jeremy Giambi
Jose Guillen
Jay Gibbons
Juan Gonzalez
Clay Hensley
Jerry Hairston
Felix Heredia, Jr.
Darren Holmes
Wally Joyner
Brian Kavanagh
Darryl Kyle
Matt Lawton
Raul Mondesi
Abraham Nunez
Trot Nixon
Jose Offerman
Andy Pettitte
Mark Prior
Neifi Perez
Rafael Palmiero
Albert Pujols
Brian Roberts
Juan Rincon
John Rocker
Pudge Rodriguez
Sammy Sosa
Scott Schoenweiis
David Segui
Alex Sanchez
Gary Sheffield
Miguel Tejada
Julian Tavarez
Fernando Tatis
Maurice Vaughn
Jason Varitek
Ismael Valdez
Matt Williams
Kerry Wood
Thompson Creek cuts 2007 molybdenum outlook again
Thu Dec 13, 2007 12:59am EST
NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc (TCM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) TC.N, one of only two pure molybdenum producers in the world, late on Wednesday cut its 2007 molybdenum production estimate for the second time in two months.
Thompson, which until May was known as Blue Pearl Mining, said it now expects its mines to produce about 3 million pounds of molybdenum, compared with a previous forecast of 4.5 million to 5 million pounds.
The company now expects molybendum production of 15.9 million pounds for 2007, down from a previous estimate of 17.5 million to 18 million pounds.
Last month, the company cut its production forecasts through 2008 due to lower ore grades handled at its flagship mine.
However, the company said on Wednesday that its 2008 and 2009 estimates remained unchanged.
Thompson said production at its Endako mine in Northern British Columbia had been hurt by a Nov. 12 rock slide that interrupted ore production and that high moisture content of the ore it is producing has forced its molybdenum producing mill to run slower.
ZMR.V: I like the gold kicker.
I'm hoping Goldman Sachs' 2008 copper forecast of $3.65/lb is in the ballpark. Seems pretty optimistic but @ $3 or higher sounds good to me. ZMR.V's projections were based on $2.23 copper so there is a lot of upside if copper stays strong.
--------------------------------------------------------------
2007-12-08 09:00:00
Why Copper is the most bullish commodity
By Jane Louis
St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The analysts at Goldman Sachs JBWere don’t seem too concerned about the U.S. housing slump’s impact on the copper price.
No matter that their colleagues have downgraded economic growth forecasts for the United States due to significant drops in housing starts and home prices. Generally, weakness in the housing sector equals a drop in copper demand - which logically leads to a drop in the copper price.
And while that is still true, analysts Malcolm Southwood and Paul Gray said in their “Industry Insight Commodities” report last week, the more important factors are the offsets that the copper market will see from a significant increase in demand from China in the next year. Chinese consumption, they said, along with increased demand in other emerging countries, will support the copper price in 2008.
That is why Southwood and Gray are holding Goldman Sachs’ 2008 price forecast at $3.65 per pound - despite the pathetic outlook for the U.S. housing market.
“Basically, the view comes down to continuing strong demand growth in China and other emerging markets, and the fact that the supply side is struggling to meet production targets from existing mines, let alone deliver significant new capacity in a timely manner,” Southwood told Resource Investor in e-mailed comments.
Rising Copper Demand in Emerging Economies
The analysts raised their Chinese copper demand growth to 19% from 18% in 2007 and to 15% from 12.5% in 2008. “We believe that this is consistent with the very large additions to China’s semi-fabricating capacity that are currently under way and with the continuing boom in construction and infrastructure,” the Goldman Sachs analysts said in their report, estimating that Chinese offtake will rise by 622,000 tonnes in 2008.
They made comparable increases to their demand growth expectations for other emerging economies, including India, Eastern Europe and the CIS.
Positive demand growth in these countries will counterbalance Goldman’s lowered demand growth forecast for the United States, according to the report. The analysts, who said that they are in no way trying to downplay to impact of the United States’ housing slump, dropped their outlook for 2008 demand growth in the U.S. to -3.5% from -1.2%, reducing the forecast for copper consumption in the country by 57,000 tonnes.
“In 2007, data for the first nine months of the year, combined with the Goldman Sachs estimate for the December quarter point to a 23% fall in total housing starts which, allowing for the split between single-family and multi-family units, implies a ‘loss’ of about 80,000 tonnes of net copper end-use this year due to weakness in residential construction alone,” the report said.
“We believe that this loss was partly offset by strength in non-residential construction, particularly during the first half of the year. We estimate that the net loss to end-use consumption as a result of construction sector weakness in the USA for 2007 will be in the order of 60,000-70,000 tonnes. Not all of this will present as lower refined copper consumption in the USA because a significant portion of copper semis used in the construction sector is imported; rather the bottom line is a loss of 60,000-70,000 tonnes of final net copper consumption, but shared between the USA and its trading partners.”
The analysts said in 2008, reduced copper consumption will have a similar impact on the U.S. and the countries that export semi-manufactured copper to it.
“Looking out to 2008, our Goldman Sachs colleagues are forecasting a further 35% drop in total housing starts. Using a similar method of estimating the impact on copper demand to that outlined above, this implies a loss of c.95,000 tonnes of final net copper consumption in 2008 through weak residential construction activity in the USA.”
Southwood and Gray said in the report that the net impact of these demand growth adjustments has been to reduce their global copper offtake forecast by 177,000 tonnes in 2008. They now expect global copper demand to grow by 4.9% next year to 19.099 million tonnes.
“The bottom line is that we continue to model a very tight global copper market in 2008, in which balance must again be achieved partly through demand destruction.”
The Goldman Sachs analysts aren’t the only bulls in the copper market.
“I am bullish on copper as well,” Matthew Sena, an analyst at Castlestone Management, told RI. “Though I think the U.S. housing slump is pushing down prices now, I believe we will still avoid recession. Non-residential construction is meaningfully up year-over-year, and China’s build-out in preparation for the Olympics (and in general) should keep demand strong. Inventories, while building, are still low historically and copper’s supply is still tight enough to be susceptible to shocks.
“It’s a bit of a fool’s game to try and time it, but I could envision copper working its way back to the $3.50-$3.70 range later in 2008.”
In addition, Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, said last month that it expects average prices of about $3.10 per pound in 2008 - topping an earlier estimate of $2.70.
“Dynamic demand from China, higher than expected, together with difficulties in the industry to achieve production plans, generated a deficit situation in 2007 and project a balanced market in 2008,” Cochilco Executive Vice President Eduardo Titelman said in a media report on 6 November. Chile is the world’s top producer of copper.
Barclays Capital commodity research director Kevin Norrish said yesterday that he too is bullish on the metal, calling for an average of $7,800 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange next year. He also said he thinks copper will touch a record high above $8,800 in 2008. LME copper futures have averaged $7,131 per tonne this year.
Increasing Global Supply Deficit
In October, the International Copper Study Group released a report saying it expected 2007 to have a copper production surplus of approximately 110,000 tonnes and 2008 to have a surplus of approximately 250,000 tonnes.
It further predicted global copper mine production in 2007 would rise by 5.1% over 2006 to 15.79 million tonnes. In 2008, mine production is expected to rise by 7.6% to 17 million tonnes. Refined copper production is forecast to hit 18.12 million tonnes in 2007 and 18.95 million tonnes in 2008.
In 2009, “the expected growth in production is expected (to) surpass the growth in usage and a larger market surplus is anticipated,” the report said.
The Goldman Sachs analysts, however, lowered their global refined copper production to 17.988 million tonnes in 2007 from an original prediction of 18.137 million tonnes. Their forecast for 2008 stayed the same at 19.113.
“The supply side of the copper industry, globally, is still struggling to meet production targets at existing mines and to achieve the timely delivery of new capacity,” the Goldman report said.
Copper production has experienced several setbacks this year, including multiple strikes and an earthquake in Chile. In addition, there is speculation that Jiangxi Copper Ltd. [SHA:600362], China’s larger producer of the metal, may have to cut output by up to 30,000 tonnes this month during repairs, according to a report.
All in all, the next year is shaping up to be a bullish time for copper, according to the analysts. Southwood and Gray said in their report that any current weakness in the copper price is sentiment-driven.
“Copper remains our preferred base metal, and we look to use any further price weakness over the year-end period to increase equity exposure,” they concluded.
Copper futures added 8.6 cents to close at $3.0945 a pound today on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a 2.5% gain.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/topstory/newsdetails.php?id=4104
Bought some Zaruma, ZMRAF.pk, at .169. Seems like a slam dunk at this price with financing from Glencore secured and based on production estimates. I guess the short mine life (5 yr mines), waiting 14 months for production, and having to raise another $3 million might be holding the stock down at this point. Anyone adding ZMR/ZMRAF here?
"The Technical Report on the project, in compliance with NI 43-101 standards, (news release November 10, 2006), estimated proven and probable reserves of 4.4 million tonnes of ore with an average grade of 1% Cu. Based on production of 15 million pounds of cathode copper per year, the pre-tax net operational cash flow was estimated to average US$19.4 million per year for at least five years, based on a copper price of US$2.23 per pound."
111.5 million shares outstanding.
CXPO, I emailed them 11/16, asking what they were doing to get the word out...about applying to a better exchange, presenting at conferences and getting in front of institutional prospects, fund managers, etc. The CFO responded:
----------------------------
Joe Grady Nov 16
We will be gradually increasing our exposure by pursuing some of the avenues you mention during 2008. We will at some point in the foreseeable future pursue an up-listing to another exchange, but it is not currently in the works.
____________________________________________
From the Desk of: E. Joseph Grady
Senior Vice President & CFO
Crimson Exploration Inc.
717 Texas Ave Suite 2900
Houston, TX 77002
Phone: 713-236-7400
Fax: 713-236-4575
Cell: 713-504-5136
Bought more LBE.V today. Trading below 1x internal cashflow projections and significantly below financing price announced last month. If they come anywhere close to their projections (which are 1.50 cf based on $14 nickel), LBE should trade appreciably higher from here. Nickel prices and delays are the wildcards I guess
Looks like someone just paid .35 to get cashed out at .30. lol
I bought 999 at .15 this morning.
pr just out. r/s approved.small change but i'll take it. thanks guys.
Ring The Register, which has a pretty decent track record as a value stock recommendation website, picked QXM today. I haven't looked into it yet but thought I'd pass it along...
CURRENT PRICE: $8.72
TYPE OF PLAY: VALUE/SECTOR MOMENTUM/GROWTH
As the China sector begins to build strength yet again, QXM presents a very compelling opportunity. The stock is trading well off its highs yet the company has maintained a Q3 EPS of $.34 (excluding extraordinary items), increased sales by 28.3% year over year to $111 million for the quarter, and expanded gross margins to 26.4%, compared to 23.3% in the third quarter of 2006. They also set a record with handset shipments of approximately 1.15 million units, an increase of 116% from the third quarter of 2006 and up 8.6% sequentially. The timing here is also extremely key as electronics retailers are rapidly preparing for the coming sales ramp-up into the Christmas and Chinese New Year seasons.
In preparation for this high demand, QXM is rolling out a lineup of new, higher-margin phones:
-W100 watch phone, which has seen excellent sales so far, is offered at a price point approximately 4 times higher than last quarters average phone (from last earnings release). This of course, represents a significant improvement to margins per unit.
-C7000A is a mobile phone that will be equipped with a monitor/cardiograph, which can send patient condition directly to doctors via MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service). The phone is launching this month and is targeted to the over 60 million people in China who have heart problems.
-Additionally, they are developing a new luxury series. These handsets will offer discerning consumers in China a high-end mobile phone that features top-of- the-line components and materials. The first model in this series is planned for release towards the end of the first quarter of 2008. This consumer class within china has grown significantly over the last few years.
In addition to the company's growing business and perfect placement within the fastest growing economy in the world, QXM maintains a stellar balance sheet with over $170 million in net cash (around $3.20 per share). We believe there is an excellent risk versus reward metric at this level.
The limit order to buy UVE at $6.80 (which I set 3 weeks ago) just triggered. Looking cheap here...
Any idea what Frost plans to put in this shell?
change?
I guess I should have reviewed the existing WAG's before posting mine. Looks like my WAG is crowding nsomniyak's. Is it possible to change mine to 12/04/07 1:45AM? I don't want nsomniyak getting mad...thanks if you can, no problem if you can't
WAG 12/04/07 1:00 AM
Good to see, Nelson1234. We are doing our part to stave off a recession....buy buy buy!
OT: 'Tis the Season for one-day-only Black Friday deals!
If anyone is looking for a cheap laptop (or a cheap anything for that matter), you might want to check out my favorite deal website, www.headlinedeals.com, today. There are some really good deals out there. I just bought a second laptop for myself.
http://www.headlinedeals.com/index.php?hid=0259ac55603800774f881ec7f30bcf84&cPath=26
Select "Categories" menu on the left to switch out of the laptop section.
LBE.TO
Bob, I emailed Gary Nash asking if those projections were still valid, and asked whether the tragedy at Redstone at any effects on operations. His response:
"Only down 2 1/2 days. Yes that is our cash flow from operations target at around the $14 US per pound mark. Does depend on DC/US as well."
KSW : Moab Capital Partners Raises KSW Stake To 9.8% >KSW
Last update: 11/23/2007 7:12:07 AM
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES Moab Capital Partners LLC on Friday reported increasing its stake in KSW Inc. (KSW) to 9.8% from 7.5%, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Moab Capital believes the company's shares are significantly undervalued, and said it believes the company is well capitalized and poised to expand its business within the New York City metropolitan market and beyond. According to the SEC filing, Moab Capital beneficially owns 608,965 shares of KSW, a New York-based provider of heating, ventilating and air-conditioning systems. Moab Capital reported in late October beneficially owning 463,735 KSW shares. Shares of KSW closed Wednesday at $6.73. -Jared A. Favole, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9207; jared.favole@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 23, 2007 07:12 ET (12:12 GMT)
This came out Monday evening, so the numbers are slightly different today, as the market has dropped quite a bit since this was written. Interesting statistic on P/E ratios...
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Cohen, Bianco See Year-End Rally; Dow Theory Says No (Update4)
By Nick Baker and Eric Martin
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- What do Abby Joseph Cohen, Jason Trennert and David Bianco know that the Dow Theory doesn't?
The strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Strategas Research Partners LLC and UBS AG say the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will climb 9.7 percent from its Nov. 16 close to 1,600 in the final six weeks of 2007, the steepest gain since 1971.
This month's drop in transportation stocks suggests equities may decline instead. With FedEx Corp. and Ryder Systems Inc. leading the Dow Jones Transportation Average to its lowest level this year, the rest of the U.S. market may slump too, according to the 123-year-old theory that says truckers, railroads and airlines lose business before the economy slows.
``The transports have broken down,' said Jack Ablin, who oversees about $52 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. ``We're going to need a boost on the economic front to really help push the market higher. I wouldn't bet on it.'
The transportation average of 20 stocks, created by Wall Street Journal co-founder Charles Dow in 1884 to foretell economic trends, fell today to the lowest since October 2006. A drop in the 30-member Dow Jones Industrial Average, which Charles Dow compiled 12 years later, below its level on Aug. 16 would signal a bear market is about to begin, the theory holds.
``We've moved one step closer to a bear market,' said Chuck Carlson, an editor at the Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter who manages $130 million at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana.
Buffett's Support
The transportation average fell 2.3 percent to 4,457.97 today. The Dow industrials retreated 1.7 percent to 12,958.44, putting it 0.9 percent above its Aug. 16 close. The S&P 500, the benchmark for U.S. stocks, lost 1.8 percent to 1,433.27, the lowest since Aug. 28.
Transportation shares rallied early in the year, gaining 19 percent by mid-July. The advance was assisted by Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Berkshire disclosed in May that it owned shares of Union Pacific Corp., the biggest U.S. railroad, and Norfolk Southern Corp. of Norfolk, Virginia, the fourth-largest. The notice came three weeks after the industrial and transportation averages reached simultaneous highs -- bullish under Dow Theory. The S&P 500 advanced to a record in October.
Way Down
Buffett helped on the way down, too. Berkshire said last week that it had sold shares of both railroads. Omaha-based Union Pacific rose to $129.96 in New York Stock Exchange trading Oct. 23 and declined 4.1 percent since then. Norfolk Southern hit its high of $58.64 on June 1 and then fell 16 percent.
While the government reported that the U.S. economy grew 3.9 percent in third quarter, stocks have been weighed down by the worst housing market since 1991, about $45 billion of subprime- related credit losses at banks and securities firms and the first quarterly decline in corporate profits since 2002.
Losses triggered by bad home loans may cause banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending and threaten to trigger a ``substantial recession,' Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a Nov. 15 report. Macy's Inc. and J.C. Penney Co., two of the nation's largest department-store chains, slashed their estimates last week before the holiday shopping season.
FedEx, Ryder
FedEx, based in Memphis, lost 13 percent this year to $94.05, the lowest since November 2005. The largest air-cargo company cut its profit forecast last week for the second time in three months, citing lower freight demand and rising fuel costs.
Ryder, the largest U.S. truck-leasing firm, fell 19 percent to $41.12 in 2007. The Miami-based company said Oct. 8 that third-quarter earnings trailed its forecast because the economy weakened.
None of that swayed Cohen, Trennert and Bianco. They say low equity valuations, overseas growth and the prospect that the Federal Reserve will cut its interest rate target for overnight loans between banks can lift the S&P 500 to a record 1,600 this year.
``It's a tall order to get to our year-end target, but I don't want to concede defeat,' said New York-based Trennert, 39, the chief investment strategist at Strategas, who correctly predicted takeovers would send stocks surging earlier this year. ``Whether we get to 1,600 or not, the Lord only knows, but I do feel very strongly that there's enough value in the market that it's not a bad way to bet.'
P/E Ratio
Companies in the S&P 500 are valued at 15.5 times their projected earnings, the cheapest in almost 17 years when compared with reported profits, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bianco, 32, wrote in a Nov. 9 research note that stocks are inexpensive and said the Fed will reduce its benchmark lending rate to 3.5 percent next year from 4.5 percent now. The central bank cut borrowing costs from 5.25 percent in the past two months to keep the housing slowdown and losses in bond markets spurred by mortgages to people with patchy credit from dragging the economy into recession.
``The market's priced for a U.S. recession,' New York-based Bianco said during a conference call last week. ``We don't think that's the case, and we believe the earnings are going to prove to be far more resilient than most people realize.'
UBS declined to make Bianco, chief equity strategist at the brokerage arm of the world's largest wealth manager, available for an interview.
Recession Unlikely
Cohen, known for her bullish predictions during the 1990s, said in an investment outlook this month that losses for companies hurt in the housing market will be offset by increased earnings at corporations that sell technology and industrial equipment outside the U.S. The 55-year-old strategist says a recession is unlikely. Cohen, based in New York, was unavailable for comment.
Trennert, Bianco and Cohen aren't alone in predicting the S&P 500 will surpass its October record high of 1,565.15 by New Year's Eve. Five of eight other Wall Street strategists with year-end forecasts tracked by Bloomberg see the index reaching 1,600.
Nick Sargen said deteriorating profit growth and a slower economy will show the S&P 500 forecasts were too optimistic.
``I just don't see how you get to 1,600 by year end,' said Sargen, who helps oversee about $30 billion as senior vice president at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati. ``I'll settle for where we are. I'm just hoping we can hold on.'
YRC, JetBlue
The transportation average, which surged to its record of 5,446.49 in July, is now down 2.2 percent for the year. YRC Worldwide Inc., the biggest U.S. trucking company, has lost the most in the measure, tumbling 53 percent to $17.56. JetBlue Airways Corp. has slumped 51 percent to $7.01.
The Dow industrials' gain this year is 4 percent after it dropped 8.5 percent from a record on Oct. 9. The S&P 500 has added 1.1 percent, falling 8.4 percent from its all-time high.
``Transportation is a good economic indicator,' said Richard Weiss, who manages more than $59 billion as chief investment officer at City National Bank in Beverly Hills, California.
``We're holding off in our investment strategies until we see better values out there. That's not going to happen until 2008.'
Last Updated: November 19, 2007 16:23 EST
pinto, you are correct Shaw was a former CEO, but he retired in 2005, before the acquisition of Pitt Penn and before IEAM was operating anywhere close to where it is today. I consider Mazzuto the only captain that piloted this ship and subsequently steered it into an iceberg...
i mean't the first CFO used the excuse of "health problems" also, not the first CEO. Unfortunately for investors, Mazzuto has been the first and only CEO (until now).
Mazzutto retires due to poor "health." That first CEO had "health" problems too. Unbelievable.
Industrial Enterprises Announces John Mazzuto to Retire as Chief Executive Officer
Wednesday November 21, 9:10 am ET
NEW YORK, Nov. 21, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Industrial Enterprises of America, Inc. (NasdaqCM:IEAM - News) announced today that John D. Mazzuto, Chief Executive Officer and interim Chief Financial Officer has decided to retire from his position as an officer of the company. He will remain in his current position through December 31, 2007 and will continue to serve as a member of the Board of Directors.
The Company's Board of Directors is evaluating its options for potential new CEO candidates.
Bob Casper, Chairman of the Board, stated, ``John had informed the Board previously that due to personal health reasons, he would not be staying in the CEO position. The Board at that time asked him to allow sufficient time for the new operating team initiatives to take hold. He has been transferring all day to day issues to the new operating team during this period. With the filing of the financials expected by year end, he will have accomplished the transition. The three years he spent building IEAM will be remembered fondly by all of us who worked with him.''
About Industrial Enterprises of America
Industrial Enterprises of America, Inc., headquartered in New York, NY, is an automotive aftermarket packager and supplier that specializes in the sale of anti-freeze, auto fluids, charcoal fluids, and other additives and chemicals. The Company has distinct proprietary brands that collectively serve the retail, professional and discount automotive aftermarket channels. For more information please visit http://www.ieam-inc.com
MSGI, Bear Market:
How does Richard Russell define a "bear market?" By standard definition, we would still have a ways to go down on the indexes before calling the US market a bear. In fact, most indexes haven't even hit a 10% correction level yet, although the Nasdaq ventured into that territory today.
------------------------------------------------------------
investopedia.com defines a "bear market" as:
"A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling or are expected to fall. Although figures can vary, a downturn of 15-20% or more in multiple indexes (Dow or S&P 500) is considered an entry into a bear market."
and from Wikipedia:
"A bear market is described as being accompanied by widespread pessimism. Investors anticipating further losses are motivated to sell, with negative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle. The most famous bear market in history was 1930 to 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression.[5] A milder, low-level long-term bear market occurred from about 1967 to 1983, encompassing the stagflation economy, energy crises in the 1970s, and high unemployment in the early 1980s.
Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market; a bear market is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of a range of issues over a defined period of time. By one common definition, a bear market is marked by a price decline of 20% or more in a key stock market index from a recent peak over a 12-month period. However, no consensual definition of a bear market exists to clearly differentiate a primary market trend from a secondary market trend.
Investors frequently confuse bear markets with corrections. Corrections are much shorter lived, whereas bear markets occur over a longer period with typically a greater magnitude of loss from top to bottom."
LBE weakness (besides the crappy market) can probably be attributed to this news:
http://www.timminspress.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=783747&auth=Michael+Peeling
I wonder why they haven't pr'd it? Based on yesterday and today's heavy selling, I guess most people already know anyway....
Accounting problems (possible fraud), lack of progress on business plan, lack of profitability, SEC questions, share count ballooning, possible delisting (or halting), plenty more. I don't trust the CEO. Good luck
DYII, according to CNBC, "money was moving into healthcare today." lol
hweb, my cost avg. on DYII is @ $5.20 so I feel your pain. I think a lot of momentum traders jumped in for a ride that never came and are now jumping off for a tax-loss. Hopefully the positive earnings trend will continue and the stock will see new highs. But what really keeps me awake at night is still having DYII in my PSL7!
I'm surprised at some of today's muted reactions to good earnings reports too. Does the fact CNEH's CFO is just 24 years old cause anyone alarm? The growth appears great and the stock looks cheap but can the numbers be believed? Today's retracement from $3.50 to $3 is disheartening and I'm wondering if people are questioning the legitimacy of the numbers...
DYII has been brutalized since reporting EPS of .13 on Monday. Added to my position today at $4. Hoping for a bounce back from oversold conditions one of these days...
ATEA popping in the pre-market:
Astea Reports Profitable Third Quarter 2007 Results
Thursday November 15, 8:30 am ET
Strong and Focused Execution Drives Revenue Growth
HORSHAM, Pa., Nov. 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Astea International Inc. (Nasdaq: ATEA - News), a global provider of service lifecycle management solutions, today released financial results for the third quarter of 2007.
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2007, Astea reported revenues of $7,853,000, 24% greater than revenues of $6,349,000 for the same period in 2006. Net profit for the third quarter was $892,000 or $.25 per share, compared to a net profit of $45,000 or $.01 per share for the same period in 2006. License revenue of $2,793,000 was 26% greater than $2,212,000 for the same period in 2006. Total service and maintenance revenues increased 22% to $5,060,000 from $4,137,000 for the same period in 2006.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, total revenues of $21,956,000 are 50% greater than the revenues of $14,590,000 for the same period last year. Net profit for the nine months was $1,254,000 or $.35 per share compared to a net loss of $4,270,000 or ($1.20) for the same period in 2006. Year to-date license revenue of $5,499,000 was 65% greater than $3,334,000 for the same period in 2006. Service and maintenance revenue of $16,457,000 was 46% greater than 2006.
Included in the results for the first nine months of 2007 is the recognition of $1.6 million of revenue which had been deferred from a transaction with a customer in the U.K. in the fourth quarter of 2004 and continued through 2006. The revenue, recognized in the first quarter of 2007, is comprised of $384,000 of license revenue and $1.2 million in services and maintenance revenue. All costs related to generating these revenues were expensed in the periods in which they were incurred. The results from operations for the year-to-date results include all of the revenues discussed, but no related costs. Therefore, gross profit on revenue on a year-to-date basis for 2007 appears higher than similar periods. Such operating results are not typical for the Company and are not expected to recur.
"This quarter was marked with multiple significant large enterprise wins. We are extremely pleased with our execution and success. The new customers we signed represent larger-scale implementations. They will be leveraging our entire solution suite to drive their customer service business," stated Zack Bergreen, Chairman and CEO, Astea International. "We remain focused on addressing the tremendous opportunities we see worldwide, adding new talent to our team and building the infrastructure that will allow us to continue to provide superior service lifecycle management solutions to our customers around the world."
THIRD QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
-- New Customers -- Selected by 3 industry leading, enterprise companies
to implement and deploy the full Astea Alliance suite, including our
latest mobility and Dynamic Scheduling Engine solutions. Some of the
benefits that these companies are looking to achieve include: creating
a distinct competitive advantage in their respective markets;
optimizing technician utilization and spare parts inventory; providing
technicians with real-time access to information; and ultimately
driving increased profitability and customer satisfaction.
-- Existing Customers of both the Astea Alliance and FieldCentrix
solutions continued to expand their configurations with additional
licensing for more users as well as many customers upgrading to the
latest releases.
-- One year after signing with Astea, Danka Business Systems PLC, one of
the largest independent providers of enterprise imaging systems and
services, completed the national deployment of Astea's FieldCentrix
Mobility solution, to more than 1,000 field technicians, in order to
support its' growing customer base. As a result, Danka has been able to
further refine the company's already impressive technician-to-
dispatcher ratio of 200 to 1; improve real-time visibility to its parts
inventory; increase the number of work orders completed daily; deliver
measurable cost savings; improve customer retention; sign new customers
and enhance Danka's brand value and professional standing as an
industry leader. Follow this link to learn more about this impressive
deployment: http://www.astea.com/default.asp.
-- One of Astea's customers, The Linc Group, was featured in a cover story
by Integrated Solutions magazine. In the article, they cited a one-year
payback from the FieldCentrix solution. The Linc Group uses several
components of the FieldCentrix solution, including FX Mobile, which
contains the wireless sending and receiving capabilities as well as the
user interface on mobile devices; FX Service Center, which is the back
end dispatching interface that integrates with accounting software; and
FX eService, which enables customers to view current and future work
orders through a self-service Web portal. Follow this link to read
more: http://www.astea.com/lincgroup.asp.
Astea will host a conference call that will be broadcast live over the Internet on November 15, 2007 at 11:00 AM EST to discuss the Company's third quarter financial results. Investors can access the call from the Company's Web site at http://www.astea.com/about_investors.asp. For those who cannot listen to the live broadcast, a replay will be available shortly after the call.
About Astea International
Astea International (Nasdaq: ATEA - News) is a global provider of service management software that addresses the unique needs of companies who manage capital equipment, mission critical assets and human capital. With the acquisition of FieldCentrix, Astea complements its existing portfolio with the industry's leading mobile field service execution solutions. Astea is helping companies drive even higher levels of customer satisfaction with faster response times and proactive communication, creating a seamless, consistent and highly personalized experience at every customer relationship touch point. Since its inception in 1979, Astea has licensed applications to companies, around the world, in a wide range of sectors including information technology, telecommunications, instruments and controls, business systems, HVAC, gaming/leisure, imaging, industrial equipment, and medical devices.