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I remember my 65th birthday - I was waiting for news from Ameramex.
Is it too hot to go outside? I always feel better after a nice long walk along the river or among the trees, early in the morning.
As I understand it, 8/30 is when Ameramex delivers the necessary paperwork to the attorneys. The yield sign will be removed some unspecified time after that, assuming the papers are in order.
I've met Lee. He isn't a slacker.
All good news. We should see ten cents+ by Nigerien Republic Day.
Lee will come through: more than any of us, he wants to see a higher share price.
Born and others: I agree with your comments about small, family business attitudes. However don't underestimate the fact that the major beneficiary of compliance, auditing, uplisting and huge foreign deals is Mr Hamre himself, who fully understands the point. That is why I have been hanging on to his coat tails for the past six years and will continue to do so.
Next week will be HOT in Chico - forecast 109 on Thursday.
I've been waiting a while for my AMMX ship to come in, laden with CFA francs. It has been becalmed in the Bight of Benin for six years now, but the captain, a well-known big game hunter, recently press-ganged a compliance attorney as pilot and a hedge-fund manager as boatswain. The ship's sails have recently filled with a promising trade wind and is definitely heading west. Avast there me hearties!
I guess I'm gullible - I believe them this time!
Yes it's a waiting game but by mid August I expect:
1. Attorney letter issued
2. Good 2Q results announced
These will bring a modest uptick in SP.
As for Niger I'm 95% sure it will happen, can't believe the enormous effort invested by all parties will come to nothing, but I don't think AMMX have much control over completion date.
My view: this is a small company about to move into a much bigger league, and they are feeling their way. Be patient, fortunes are about to be made.
My advice: stop watching the stock on a daily basis, just wait patiently for the next PR. When something big happens we'll know it. The stock is undervalued on the basis of its core business alone, so relax, you will make lots of money in God's good time.
Jujube: thank you, that's the best and most original piece of news I've heard for months, and carries far more weight than any chart. After all, AMMX management would surely not mislead its own employees.
Ivory, here's what Lee said in the PR of June 5th. See the last sentence:
“We are still waiting for the list of equipment from Niger. The equipment will be used on a number of projects by several private companies. The companies are supplying their lists to Ecobank which will consolidate and send to AmeraMex. We will update our shareholders when the invoice is approved by the lender for payment to AmeraMex.”
We are into the last lap now and will soon be winning gold.
Ref Marty's reply: that's odd, they had said Niger would be $12m every 2 months, not every 3 months. Hope that is just a typo.
...and according to their PR, June has 31 days in California!
I don't think that can be true. They have already signed a contract with the Government of Niger.
I think the current SP reflects the market's view that the big deal will not happen, based on past disappointments. I think they are wrong, and when the deal does happen it will be a huge surprise to all except us true believers, the Ameramexites.
Ameramex core business potential revenue for 2015:
According to their various PRs this is how it looks to me, but please correct if necessary:
First quarter: $ 936,000
5-year govt contract: $ 126,000 i.e 3/20 of $837,000
Announced 4/18/15: $ 450,000 from 2 customers in US, 1 in Canada
Announced 4/22/15: $ 410,000 refurbishment equipment for Senegal
$4,000,000 same from Senegal possible, fall 2015. Could be $5m
Announced 5/14/15: $2,100,000 North California, 8xforklifts by 12/1/15
Total potential: $8,022,000
I include Senegal as core business as it is refurbishment not agency/import like Niger.
This projected $8 million compares to 2014's $7.3 million, and surely they will be getting more core business between now and the end of 2015. Very healthy growth!
Bear in mind that in 2008 their gross revenue was $23.6 million, so further annual growth is very possible.
Assuming net profits continue at 2014's 11% of gross, this is plenty good enough to support a share price of 8 cents or more, based on a reasonable PEG ratio of 1. See my post of a few days ago.
Then of course there is Niger and the Congo, not included above. Also Senegal solar.
Based on these facts and expectations, I am a strong holder of AMMX for the long term.
Thanks for the explanation.
Seems a purchase of 700,000 shares at asking price just after market close. ??
Using a commonly-used method of valuation I estimate that Ameramex's current share price should be .078, considering only its core business. The logic:
Net profit growth over the last four years:
2011 profit $153k
2012 profit $276k +80%
2013 profit $485k +76%
2014 profit $801k +65%
According to author Peter Lynch "The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." This relationship is expressed as "PEG ratio should be 1."
To apply to Ameramex's 2014 net profits, at $801,000 an increase of 65% over 2013, its PE ratio should also be 65, making a PEG ratio of 1. So:
$801,000 x 65 = $52million market valuation
$52 million / $666 million issued share capital = .078 share price
This means that based on core business only, the company is grossly undervalued by the market. If any big African contracts are landed, a much higher valuation would be appropriate.
Here's a reminder of Ameramex's six years of solid improvement on its core business:
Ameramex net profit/loss
2008 loss $573k
2009 loss $501k
2010 loss $322k
2011 profit $153k
2012 profit $276k
2013 profit $485k
2014 profit $801k
You could not ask for better evidence of their managerial competence.
I'm planning to keep at least 80% until $1, and even then may hang on. By then the business will be very different so impossible to predict.
Every new PR brings better and better news. The countdown to the AMMX rocket launch is audible even from NYC.
I would be very disappointed if they did a stock buyback as it would mean they had nothing better to do with their surplus cash. Far better for the company and for long term shareholders would be to use such extra cash to expand their international business.
The true SP explosion will not happen until the three remaining steps have been accomplished as set out in today's PR:
1. Hamre Equipment to provide new detailed invoice based on information being provided to Mr Hamre by the Ministry of Transportation in Niamey.
2. Contract to be provided by Ecobank and submitted to American funding organization in New York.
3. NY funding organization to give final approval.
As a true believer and holder of AMMX shares since 2009, I have no doubt that this will all happen, and that it will just be the beginning of an epic expansion of AMMX's international business, but there are plenty of timid holders out there just dying to cash in some small gains.
My understanding from the long sequence of PRs on the truck deal is that US financial backing for this project is already lined up provided certain conditions are met. I can't believe that Lee would spend so much time on setting all this up without having such an assurance in his pocket.
Do Bostonians respect their elders?
Mali Schmali.
Won't a hedge fund want shares, i.e more dilution?
A question for Lee tomorrow:
Please give us a link to any third-party press release mentioning Ameramex or Hamre Equipment in connection with Niger. So far I havent seen any myself. Has anyone?
If the financial contract signed yesterday really did sew it up for AMMX, why haven't AMMX announced it themselves? Maybe
1. Niger government has asked Lee to delay for some legal or protocol reason.
2. Lee wants to talk to his own board members in person before issuing such a momentous PR.
Either way I would expect AMMX's big announcement to precede the CC, so that it can be the main topic for discussion.
No, worse luck, but I am listening hard.
If Lee's trip looks like bringing home the big deal it might be hard for all parties in the know to keep the secret, and that could cause an upward creep in the share price prior to the official announcement.
"AUDITED MEANS JACK CRAP IN THE PENNY MARKET."
Eloquently put, but I look for the day when AMMX becomes a dollar share and I join the one percent.
Thanks JDoggs for your very clear assessment which looks correct to me. In addition, if they do land this Niger contract their reputation will be transformed, and they will have the contacts and cash to take part in the modernization of Africa, a huge opportunity.
Last year they reported on Friday March 28th.