Possibly he has... which is why he projected $20 million in revenues for IPCI in 2018.

Now supposing the split on that $20 million is:

MNK pays IPCI $10 million up front NOW plus ~ $7 million in 2018 against a projected $20 million revenue in 2018... thereby pocketing an extra $3 million or 15% of that $20 million for themselves.

Would that be a wonderful "win win" for IPCI and MNK???

Note that 42 cents profit on 30 million OS is $12 million - so apparently they are estimating on IPCI to spend $22 million in 2018 - which is about $10 million??? above their 2017 burn.

I actually think that Lamictal and Pristiq can/will generate at least $15 million in 2018 if approved before end of November and I also think they may receive approval on Ranexa before end of year which should bring in another $10 million in 2018... so I'm calling for close to $1 earnings in 2018... and that doesn't include up front money on Regabatin which I think will be partnered in 2018.

ps. Looks like the fever has broken on IPCI.

NO WE'RE NOT! ! !

Anyone with Fidelety brokerage here that knows or can find out what %age they are offering to lend out IPCI shares???

With 2.9 million shares short it's gatta be pretty high.

An approval on Lamictal or Pristiq now would go a long way.

ps - my Ameritrade think-or-swim says 3rd Qtr earnings report are on October 11, 2017 - they are usually right... but with a change in CFO who knows.

Off Topic: I ask this on this board because there are so many knowledgeable posters here.

On the PDUFA date, does the FDA post the results publically somewhere or does it only notify the company of the results... and if so when would the company legally be required to make that information known???

Thanxs in advance.

Your post is greek to me Samsa... have no idea what you mean... except I would say that based on then it would seem to me... they are not concerned.

I know... you and many others here... even Doog had gone to the "dark side" a few days ago.

We all know this as truth:

IPCI will be cash flow positive on Seroquel XR alone... and there is nothing the shorts can do about it... and on top of that, Focalin will bring in approximately $5 million in 2018... and there is nothing the shorts can do about it... we don't know when, but Lamictal and Pristiq with a combined market of $1.3 BILLION which are already partnered with MNK and can go straight to rollout are bound to be approved, they can easily bring in $20 million to IPCI's bottom line... and there is nothing the shorts can do about it... IPCI has a better product than Pfizer's Lyrica... a $4.2 BILLION drug going off patent end of 2018... and there is nothing the shorts can do about it... and on top of that is PODRAS, Rexista and 4 drug delivery platforms other than PODDS which IPCI has not even scratched the surface on due to lack of funds and manpower... which I think will change soon... and there is nothing the shorts can do about it... there are 2.9 million shares short and if IPCI can weather this rough patch without doing a poisoned PP, then the only thing shorts can do about it is to COVER.

The negative catalyst that still remains is the perception that IPCI will need to raise money down here and may do a poisoned PP with warrants.

If IPCI can put out a PR with assurances that dilution is not necessary going forward... that they have acquired a sizeable sum of money either through discounting by 10% to 12% or even 20% future royalty payments on Seroquel or Focalin, or have acquired a $5 to $10 million line of credit from a bank by using future royalty payments as collateral... or signing a partnership with a few millions $ up front payment... and they will be buying back up to 5 million of their own shares... then you'll see IPCI at $3 a share practically overnight, and upwards of $6 a share within a couple of quarters of earnings.

Those 3 million shares will have to cover... if you look at the totality of it... it may seem we longs are at a disadvantage... but that could be turned around with only a single PR.

Anyone that doesn't see the opportunity here is "brain dead".

Sure it hurts... but "suck it up"... let yourself "know what you know"... open your eyes... this is a multi billion dollar company in the making.

Here is Spreadsheet to Sept 15, 2017

Bad week for Sept 15 but still projecting $1.9 Million for the month of September.

by March 19th IPCI will probably have reported 2 profitable quarters - 4th Qtr 2017 and 1st Qtr 2018 which ends end of February 2018.

Does the FDA put out a PR or posts the results on the Rexista findings or do they notify IPCI and IPCI discloses the results???

If it's left up to IPCI then they could diffuse this by posting the PR after hours where the MoMos who simply read headlines can be made somewhat irrelevant.

Hoping to get fred's MNK Seroquel sales #s today for week ending September 15th.

Looking for ~ $477K for the week... anything above is icing on the cake... although there are sometimes up or down swings in earnings, the last four weeks it seemed to have settled into approx. 18% growth week-to-week.

$477K would be a 15% growth week-to-week.

Just remembered - we probably should make some allowance, on the downside, due to the disruptive weather during that period.

fisherman... Would you like your exact post if it was posted by Impact Trader???

Would you share what you heard, and where you heard it, so we can decide for ourselves if it has any merit?

Well if IPCI's Rexista is a threat to Purdue... then Regabatin could be "fatal" to Pfizer's Lyrica... and Lyrica is 2 to 3 times the market of OxyContin... which goes off patent end of 2018 so no legal challenge... n'est pas???

I believe that Purdue is not so much interested in Rexista as it is in PODRAS... their CEO said in 2016 that they were interested in buying a platform. I think he was referring to the PODRAS platform... and so far they haven't and PODRAS is not partnered... anyway, you can see the complications here... on the other hand, Regabatin is not complicated at all - $10 to $20 million up front with up to $50 to $60 million total milestone package and 15% royalty, plus partner finances development... cut that in half and it's still a game changer.

I think the lawsuit may well be frivolous but gives Purdue a negotiating edge against a cash strapped little company.

Unlike others here I don't think PODRAS really does anything to curb abuse as you can probably over-ride it's function by simply drinking a shot of vinegar.. but it will definitely prevent "accidental" overdose... and that would give it the edge it needs with prescribers.
Nah... Samsa is working on taking care of Samsa... and Samsa's wife's shares, who wants to retire.

I like it fred... and all within reason... but I'm guessing $8 to $10 at end of 2018.

Would you please post the September 15th numbers as soon as available tomorrow??? I'm on pins and needles to see if MNK really does have that kind of muscle.

Would also help if you post TRXs for the competitors as a comparison... last time you posted them MNK seemed awesome by comparison.

LOL... reached out... YES, Legal assistance... trying to help???...NO... Samsa I'm afraid, has reached out only to help himself... and is inviting others to do the same... easier to look in the mirror when you have company.

In my mind I think the easiest and most expedient thing to do is to "borrow" say $5 million or $10 million from PAR or MNK by offering them a 20% discount on the future royalty payments...

I think Focalin is mature enough now that they can even take it to a bank and borrow against future earnings.

Let's hope that Isa Odidi is not holding out for a 10% discount LOL.

Nice positive post Doug... I imagine you've refilled your prescription???

Is it Xanax??? Paxil??? Lexapro??? wait... don't tell me it's Seroquel XR??? what brand??? - can you pass one of those "bad boys" to WiMike???

ps - welcome back... I missed you yesterday.

it's actually 2 more ANDAs already partnered with MNK... Pristiq and Lamictal XR with a combined "generic" market value of 1.3 Billion.

Assuming MNK captures 5% of the market and IPCI's split is 40%... then IPCI stands to make another $52 million, and considering there is no grace period on those 2 ANDAs... it "could" all happen before the end of 2018.

To please the muskyfisherman... Assuming MNK captures 5% of the market and IPCI's split is 20%... then IPCI stands to make another $26 million, and it "could" all happen before the end of 2018.

No???

Samsa, I don't believe that posting about Purdue trial events would have caused for a gag order to be placed on you.

Therefore... I have a tendency to believe that you are perhaps lead plaintiff in one of the classic action lawsuits???

Or, a private lawsuit against the board not meeting their fiduciary duties to stockholders by allowing bonuses to be paid even when the drug itself is not being marketed???

Have you joined the blood sucking lawyers Samsa??? birds of a feather???

a gag order would not keep you from disclosing the truth... so what is going on.

Do you have any factual evidence of that other than pathetic posts on stocktwits???

The only hard evidence I know of is that companies like Novartis, Pfizer, and Teva told him to come back when it's FDA approved... can anybody here "conjure" up anything more substantial than posts on Stocktwitter that "he wanted a huge pay day"??? that's me... I want a huge payday... no evidence of him wanting a huge pay day.

There are 2.9 million reasons for them to walk it down now... and all 2.9 million are short.

I see it totally different - they can walk it down to $0 and not lose a single share if no one is there to buy.

If an institution - or better yet... if IPCI sets themselves up at say $.90 to buy... and takes up all the shares that come down, then the shorts will not be able to get below that... and if it takes say 200K or 1 million shares in trying to break that $.90 then it will be 200K or 1 million more shares they will have to buy back, and thereby raise the ask to who knows what to get it back.

Of course on CRL announcement the MoMos that only read headlines and short anything negative will initially take it down if there isn't large buyer to absorb the short... but it seems to me, there are many here prepping to buy on that drop, so I would not be surprised at all if we end the day in the green.

ps - a partnership announcement within a day with a $5 to %10 million up front payment would break the shorts back.. and they would never return.

IPCI's problem is not so much that it's oversold as it is that it's underbought... and shorts (and many longs) believe IPCI will inevitably have to raise cash and they can be in on the offering.

Hello Fred

Please post September 15th sales #s as soon as you can... I'm anxiously awaiting to add them to spreadsheet.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134711793

I'm hoping for approx. $475K in Sales and approx. 675 TRXs... anything above that would be welcomed news.

Yes and no fisherman.

As you can see... July's ACTUAL growth % was 200% and August's ACTUAL was 180%, so originally I had estimated September's growth to be 150%... but that scared even me.

So I went by the Weekly Growth % which we already have a partial of (19% for week ending Sept 8th) and assumed the rest of September to grow at an average of 15% weekly... thereby giving me around 65% growth or $1.900 million in sales for the month of September.

But as you can see, even dropping the % growth for October to 35% gives sales of $2.565 million and November to 25% growth or $3.206 million sales... the total sales for 4th Quarter would be $1.9 + $2.565 + $3.206 = $7.671 million.

What I'm a bit skeptical on is that even with dropping those %ages down substantially... MNK's November sales of over $3 million will have already achieved 1/2 the $6 million in PAR's sales for Focalin XR.

Now... is MNK that great a powerhouse for sales of generics???

ps - in the spreadsheet... 1st Qtr and 2nd Qtr refers to when MNK began selling Seroquel... but are actually 3rd and 4th IPCI's annual quarters.

Doug... pop a Xanax or something.

Yes I agree we may yet feel further pain... but I think success is inevitable now.

MNK's numbers (actual numbers) on Seroquel sales look "fantastic" and it seems inevitable that 4th quarter will be profitable for IPCI on Focalin XR and Seroquel XR sales alone.

Would hate not to meet you at the Vegas $10 IPCI party... and I would not at all be surprised if it happens before the end of next year.

It's not $8 million coming in... it's $11 million.

The $3 million up front payment is separate and apart from the $11 million cost recovery program... towards the 3 already partnered drugs.

Here is new Spreadsheet with latest figures (up to Sept. 8)

I've also added (in yellow) my estimates on what we may expect.

The estimates are predicated on 15% growth Weekly for September (last actual figure we have was 19.49% growth for week of Sept. 8th) and a total of 65% monthly for the month of September (actual growth for August was 178%, but I believe monthly % growth will decline going forward... although monthly $ growth for that period will stay about the same).

I look forward to next week's figures... thanxs Fred.



September 8th actual figures added to this spreadsheet are very very encouraging.

Thank you fred.

I will organize and post ASAP

Hello fred... I've presented the data you posted in a comprehensive exel file... take a look.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134674088

However... it was compiled from 3 separate postings of yours.

It presents a nice picture...... but it's incomplete.

Would you post all weekly data on Seroquel XR SALES and TRXs from it's rollout in May/June???

Also all Focalin XR data from December 2016 to March 2017.

I will then update the spreadsheet and we will have a much more complete picture of what is happening.

I've taken Fred's figures on Seroquel XR and Focalin XR Sales and put them in a spreadsheet which gives us a clearer picture of where we are headed.

There are assumptions that we can make from these #s, and even use Focalin's #s which are more mature to project Seroquel's potential sales... and I have to say... it looks like we have some real good things finally coming our way.



Look at that beautiful ramp up from July to August... from $412K to $1.15 MILLION... a near 180% jump, and a near 200% jump from June to July... I am really encouraged because it appears MNK is kicking A$$.

If you look at PAR's Focalin sales, even without the final 2 dose strengths... PAR is averaging about $6 million a month... or approximately $72 million a year... or about 10% of Focalin's $700 million total market.

Seroquel's projected total market (~ $720M) is very similar to Focalin total market... so if MNK is able to match PAR and capture 10% share of the market... then we can anticipate Seroquel's Sales by simply looking at PAR's Focalin sales... which is about $72 million annually.

Now this is where there is a great differentiation.

Comparing Seroquel's share of profit to Focalin's share of profit is like comparing apples to oranges.

We have estimates here of $5 million for IPCI's share of Focalin's $72 million in total sales... which equates to approximately 7% royalties.

Focalin was developed by IPCI's under PAR's auspices - PAR financed the development, and if you recall my post from long ago... mid single digits is what the norm is for partnering at pre-clinical level... or pre phase 1... so IPCI got fair value from PAR, or going rate.

But unlike Focalin XR, Seroquel XR was developed and FDA approved totally on IPCI's dime... and going rate for partnering an FDA approved product is usually at least 40% and 50% is not at all uncommon... anyone assuming a 20% royalty split is totally off the mark.

So if we use PAR's Focalin's total sales of $72 million annually... and MNK can capture that same 10% market of Seroquel XR then royalties can be as much as $72M x 40% = $28+M annually for IPCI once Seroquel XR is matured.

My guess on IPCI's Seroquel XR royalties for 3rd quarter are $600K to $700K... and growing rapidly.

Fred... I want to thank you for your posting... your service here is... priceless.


$1.3 million last 4 weeks - so approx. $1.5 million a month... so far... looks like it's picking up an average of about $50K a week... $200K a month... if it continues along that line it will hit about $2.4 million a month in a year's time... or $24 million a year.

Very encouraging.

What I would love to see is for IPCI to take these figures to a bank and get a $10 million loan guaranteed by future royalty payments... and use $5 million of that to buy back 5 million shares of it's own stock.

Angelo wrote...
Now how is I believe... and we should be getting ... any different then your... I feel there is a possibility

Yes... they will also be manufacturing, on a cost PLUS basis, Pristiq and Lamictal XR once they are approved.

Besides Royalties and Cost Plus, the agreement also stipulated a $3 million non refundable up front payment, and an $11 million reimbursement program which I believe is amortized over $10 years... so once all 3 are on the market we should be getting about one million $ a year for the re-imbursement program.

The MNK sales # however is for total sales - breaking $3 million down for who gets what is perhaps 50/50 so $1.5 million each.

If 60/40 then MNK $1.65 million - IPCI $1.35 million.

but the ramp up between July and August is very encouraging.

What we don't know is MNK's muscles in capturing market share... but based on the #s you posted previously showing what MNK sales were against the competitors... then MNK was running away with the show.

A few more months should give us a much clearer picture.

My post was in reference to the following post from fred.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134349392

Ramp up is quite nice... but a total of $1.7 million MNK sales for IPCI's 3rd Qtr is a far cry from Mackie's estimated $4.63 million for IPCI alone.

But if it keeps ramping up as it has then within a few quarters it should be quite nice... the jump of almost $700K on august alone is quite encouraging... and certainly a parabolic increase... trending from that could possibly be almost 3X $1.15M or $3.45 million for September... I'll stop there because the next 2 months would become obscene!!!

Oh what the hell... 3x $3.45M = $10.35M for October and 3x $10.35M = $31.5M for November... told you it would become obscene.

Really at a certain point, it stops increasing parabolically and increases linearly... where that is, is anybody's guess... but Mackie seems to be way off.

OK fabius, will re-set it back to $10.00 for you, although I will be there with a friend first week of November... withy nothing to gamble with.

Maybe we will try and connect with ImpactTrader at the Bellagio Buffet while we are there.

ps: ImpactTrader - can you put in an order for 10K shares at $1.01 at 3:59:50... just to close it over $1.00 and re-set the clock on de-listing???

Yeaaaaa... anybody for a $1.00 Vegas party???

Exactly my feelings.

IPCI is worth $10 on Generic XR's alone once matured, which is inevitable, and in the near future (mid 2018).