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yep.. could coupled with nice PR ...
another 10,000 @ 0.77 .... this will pay for my Ferrari
Totally agree. I just hope they did not scare Snowysnowman into selling his 3100 shares. Thank you all for the entertainment.
They shake your shares ...
NDAs : When I read the definition of a NDA, it does not surprise me that all agreements here are NDA's. In fact, it comforts me, that they are doing things professionally. What is making many people nervous ? that those are NDAs (whereas they do not even know what's inside)? or more simply that the time to materialize with a full order has not yet come, to which I say : this time has been perfectly articulated as a number of months after the beginning of the pilot.
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-disclosure_agreement
excerpts :
This type of agreement is common when businesses are considering some kind of joint venture or merger.
Some common issues addressed in an NDA include:
the definition of what is confidential, .... Modern NDAs will typically include a laundry list of types of items which are covered, including unpublished patent applications, know-how, schema, financial information, ... customer lists, vendor lists, ...
the term (in years) of the confidentiality,...
the obligations of the recipient regarding the confidential information...
Very interesting.
It reminds me of all 3 of the "three most important questions" for best investments, by Ken Fisher, son of the legendary Fisher :
- 1/ What do you know that other people don't know ?
Answer : STWA and the AOT and the fact it is connected to Keystone, as this tale clearly demonstrates that many people, even from the industry still don't know,
- 2/ What can you fathom that other people can't ?
Answer : the AOT, its viscosity reduction capability, and the fact that Sano don't believe even the 1st AOT will increase the flow of the whole pipeline (bottleneck).
-3/ What is you mind telling you that you should not believe ?
Answer : it's too good to be true, its a penny stock, the previous managements were questionable, they have a big salary blabla...
We are on a winner. I am hanging on my 130,000 shares !
No need to hope, just be patient ...
you don't give details about your conversation, but we can conjecture it was a good one ...
"your previous statement is true: 1 pack of AOT won't make flow faster unless it is retrofitted entire pipeline (if AOT works)"
You and Sano are right. The increase of flow suddenly happens when AOT number 38 is connected (or maybe 22 or maybe 86 ?) lol...
Why don't you make a survey of how many shares each of the active posters here hold, to see their representativity. It would be fun ...
" Economists put decimals in their forecast to show that they have a sense of humor ..."
try another navigator (firefox)
try to save it on desktop then open
The impression I have with this conversation is that the measurements they have been making on the AOT2 for 5 weeks now did not impede the positive tone of the presentation, i.e. those measurements are good or very good.
Google Image "myopic loss aversion" and maybe you'll see your face... haha OK see you on monday...
As Warren Buffett once said, “inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior.”
I don't think Tedco invested in a stock. He invested in a company developing a business in which he believes.
In 4 days at the PEG, if we hear STWA is presenting the same benefits of AOT as they have always done, now that we (and the attendants) know that they know the real scale results, it will be very significant ...
STWA has connected the AOT v2 to TransCanada Keystone, only 4 weeks ago, and they are currently daily filling pages of charts and measurements on the performance of the real scale AOT,
- that is 100 times the flow of the prototype,
- has a different design (4 vessels, 90 degrees bending etc...) that must be measured in term of impact on the flow,
- measures of energy consumption,
- on certain types of oil,
- testing the bypass function when necessary,
- testing the electric reliability, autonomy,
- impact of temperature during the day and night,
- etc....
Extrapolating the results with 2 or more AOTs,
Reassessing the precise benefit for the customer,
So that they can draw a final agreement on the price, the purchase or lease of X AOT or, in the pessimistic case, modify the design.
They must not allow any distraction on this process.
Joxfan, the less new pipelines there will be, the more efficient the existing ones will have to be, the more indispensable the AOT.
the market is like this pesky neighbor shouting everymorning over the fence what he thinks your farm is worth.. (warren buffet) plus under 1$ have their own logic ...until they don't...
just bought 10,000 at 0.805
well, frankly, I find their arguments are less and less sharp. Hard for them to stand in their boots with such an enormous pilot. They still have a few grains to grind for a few weeks (pps/communications of results), so we can still enjoy the dead cat bounce spectacle of the soon to retire bashers.
the continuity restrictions : that's a new one of yours. I prefer your previous one "the enormity of this pilot" . Keep it coming ! Isn't that called cognitive dissonance ....
Good volume, somebody (?) bought 170,000 shares at 10:30. Any info on that ?
... and the verification that TRP is undertaking is not only about the types of oil, but mainly about the real scale flow with 4 vessels, which is equivalent to at least 10 times the prototype flow. They want to make sure that the pressure drop created by the AOT is acceptable. Any general performance given at the conference will be implicitely backed by this ongoing testing.
All general figures given at the conference, such as x% decrease viscosity etc... will be backed by 1 month of data on Keystone. The attendants will know that even though the keystone figures may not be specifically disclosed because they are private. This will have a whole lot more impact than figures issued from laboratory or prototype.
I must have had a hallucination
Yesterday, on this page there was a picture of the AOT being connected to Keystone, with several workers connecting the cables to the electric board, a picture that I have never seen before. It has been removed. I definitely think there is something big behind the scene...
agree but ... do you know how they can test different oils on an operating pipeline ?
Sir Sano : Increased flow : this discussion has already been made, but since you are quoting the 10k and seem to rely on it, reread the last sentence you quoted :
In short, provided that the system remains in the same flow condition as it started, (Laminar or Turbulent) the reduction in viscosity leads to a reduction in power consumed per day.
Which means that, if you increase the power to the original sate, the flow will increase.
There are numerous sentences in the 10k, that you now rely on, clearly stating increased flow, for example :
2.8. Increased flow flexibilities through the fall, winter and spring months,
Comparison between one-off profit and % of carrier’s profit. Just my opinion, do your own DD and calculations and hypothesis.
Model 1 :
Profit per unit on per sale basis
4,300,000 – 1,200,000 $ = 3,100,000 $
Model 2 :
STWA gets 20% of carrier’s additional profit due to increased flow
(50,000 barrels/day x 365 x 6$ - 100,000 $x100) x 20%/100 units = 199,000 $/year/unit for STWA
Assuming 6$ of revenue per barrel (4$ for a pipeline but factoring also savings for not using rail or road at 15$/barrel), 100 units per pipeline, 100,000$/year of amortization cost per unit paid by the carrier.
So the present value of this STWA revenue per unit is 199,000$ x 20 years = 3,980,000 $ (no interest on discount calculation, as we assume all is inflation indexed).
This figure is not far from the 3,1 M$ of the first model.
PPS based on one pipeline with 100 units : 199,000 $/year x 100 units x PER 15 = 298,5 M$/165,000,000 = 1.81 $/share
For 5 pipelines the pps would then be 9.05 $ (the market prices the pps on a 5 years forward revenue and we assume here 1 pipeline/year)
Dividend per share assuming a payout ratio of 60% : 19,9 M$ x 5 pipelines x 60% /165 M shares = 36 cents/share
9$ per share is for 5 fully equipped pipeline, which is conservative.
I remember a previous poster where pps/share per pipeline was 1$.
YEP, exactly in the logixx developed below.
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neirbokj Tuesday, 03/11/14 09:30:27 PM
Re: None
Post # of 7364
Sharing benefits
I understand STWA will derive a "share" of the benefits from use of the AOT based on a large number of savings criteria like reduced power consumption, improved flow etc .. in all I think I heard 28 factors will/can be used to determine the profit share.
As this is going to be an expensive piece of kit to manufacture, transport, install, optimise, maintain, monitor etc I expect operator's costs whether by purchase, lease etc wil be deducted before any benefit is disributed to STWA hence the very concervative number of new name accounts introduced in my earlier calculations.
Incidentally, these calcs were based on $15 per barrell to pump the stuff and another post has pointed out this is the rail cost not pipeline operators cost which is more like $4 per barrell.
E&OE
wrong Sir Sano : profit margin on a sale is a one time event, and a percentage of the savings in transportation costs is forever. So the second option might well even surpass the first. Good try !
I agree, I don't see how they can keep silent about 1 month of full data on the pilot AOT, while speaking to all those technical decisioners. Makes no sense. I think those results could even be The subject of the presentation. --> So NDA of TransCanada will have to be already disclosed, ---> and also I think Kinder Morgan, since the latter has taken the initiative of inviting STWA, so they must have studied the product beforehand.
I agree it is not a test : I view it as the pilot program that will provide validated datas to the technical decision makers at the conference
At the conference,
1- STWA will have 1 month of full data to report on a real pipeline, the most prominent one, at full flow
2- It is probable that the TransCanada NDA will have been lifted by then
3- Only technical people, for which this conference is made, can understand and validate the datas for their companies, which are the future potential customers
4- this conference will be a PR source for the general public, i.e. the future potential shareholders
---------------fingers crossed-----------------------
I bid 5000 shares at 0.82. I got them after 20 minutes, and even got 27 shares at 0.80 !!!
I would like to add another question to double's : why after having driven the Zero price down and made their purchase, do the MMs drive it up again where it began (approximately). Thanks ...