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That's correct, Scheer was the founder of the BPI.
Hey, I'm not sellin. Just sayin.
Alright, I'll bite. Maybe it's too much coffee, or just call me blind. What's the wink?
Sorry, morning cup of coffee is done. Time to get out into the world.
What do you thing the low will be next week? I've got limit orders at 0.0315 and 0.0335 thinking there might be a nose dive and quick recovery.
There you go,
They want to add more to the float in order to dilute more, and they think the R/S will make the stock more marketable, and therefore absorb the dilution better.
But that article I referenced earlier clearly stated - reverse splits do *not* make a stock more marketable.
Seriously flawed judgement by mgmt, imo.
OMG
http://www.ehow.com/facts_7187429_impact-reverse-stock-split.html
MSN Money labels reverse splits as an act of desperation by corporate management to save a company from bankruptcy.
lol
I registered with JSTOR (a reputable academic article repo) and I'm reading the whole article.
Interesting tidbit:
Reverse split stock prices much erode much more rapidly over the split month than over prior months, then return to their pre-split price erosion trend after the split.
The article mentions price erosion, but so far, this price is not eroding, but increasing. So whatever trend develops in the next 6 weeks or so is likely to continue from May on ward. Either way, April will definitely be the cruelest month.
Read the filings from yesterday ...
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/CERP/filings
Not happening for sure, just being voted on.
I'm not making any forecasts, although some are saying it will go up due to the dilution stopping.
This R/S is clearly a no-bueno, and really points to bad / corrupt decision making by management. My personal take is that the CEO is just ego-trippin, and wants to feel like a big player by being on the NAZ.
But ... just maybe ... they do have an institutional buyer that is interested and they need this R/S to get the price to a point where this buyer can / will start putting money into the company. But if that were the case, why not tell us?
Our evidence is that reverse splits certainly don't increase the value of a firm, and in fact, often have the opposite effect.
Interesting one-page read ...
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/4478212?uid=3739256&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21101784681667
Final thought for the weekend ...
Could CERP's desire to be on the NASDAQ just be an ego trip? So Scheer can feel like a big player?
If we're getting institutional buys now, I don't see the need to risk hurting the stock just to be on a bigger (and more expensive) market.
Again, not to be negative, but we are dealing with (fallible) human beings shaking the dice here.
Gotcha. Thanks. But if benjo's right, there won't be any dilution next week.
Signal trades? Care to explain?
2023 ... meaning, irrelevant
So basically CERP used the hiring on of Okada full-time as a counter balance to the announcement to vote on a R/S.
Not sure that adds up.
Not trying to be cynical, but I have a good stake in this thing (600K shares), just want to air out all my concerns to protect myself.
Eh, he was just made official CFO. It was a benefit for being "promoted". I doubt he "bought" those shares, just a hand out.
Right, but doesn't this change the game to some degree?
Yes, but the mere announcement of the R/S sent it diving to previous all-time lows first. I think we're in for a wild ride.
Anyone think this is related to the S-1 and that 0.50 / 0.75 rule for issuing shares?
Where'd you read about the R/S? This was put up to a vote and turned down a couple months ago. Shouldn't be an issue anymore.
When you say reversal, how much time are we talking? 2-3 day reversal? 2-3 week? What time frame?
Ah, very good points.
So you're essentially ALL IN at the get-go.
Interesting!
One always hears so much about buying on dips, it's either age-old-wisdom, or a public fallacy.
Any special reason you don't increase your positions?
Doc, are you buying on dips or just letting your initial position ride?
Don't forget the over all market influence.
I'm seeing the S&P weigh down the other stocks I watch / hold.
And this is a perfect example why the language in these releases is so cryptic - anyone's guess what it means.
sigh
LOL, you could be a schoolteacher!
This is how I read it as well.
Wouldn't momentum be the primary cause of a false breakout? And if this thing makes it to .17, then it's going to have some serious winds propelling it upward.
I see it, but with this much momentum, I can see it breaking through temporarily on a surge, then falling right back below 0.19. I always account for overshots. ;)
Going to go on record to say that 0.23 is the top here - the support between 9/17 and 10/17. This whole move is an upward correction from the slaughter this stock encountered since that time period.
I say upward correction, because CERP having reported revenues equal to the 1st 3 quarters of 2012, only makes sense we return to a price level that's comparable. Even with all of this dilution.
Actually, what would you say is the short-term potential if that DuPont deal is real? Or any kind of significant news?
Thanks for the well reasoned reply.
I'm going to take this into account while building my exit plan.
What's a life changer? $1? $3? $5?
CERP Max PPS?
I'm sure I'm getting waaayyy ahead of myself, but I'm curious what people think the max pps might be for this stock.
Obviously, any stock can go to the moon if the company does things perfectly (or more so). But given where the company is, and if solves all of its current problems, and mgmt performs at the best they have performed before ... where could this thing go?
My guess is the 2+ year support at $3. Or is this pipe dream within the next 2-3 years?
Otherwise, $1, 60c, 30c, 10c?
Thoughts/
Also, all of this worry about dilution, although real, has been seen before:
Facebook was brought down to 50% of its IPO price thanks to share dilution due to hand-outs to ex-employees, friends, family, etc. And on the day that the largest chunk of shares were to hit the market, the stock started on a tear to go from 19 to 30+.
Granted, different class of issue, but dilution alone isn't enough to keep a stock down forever. And a stock *can* move contrary to heavy dilution.
How about Not-NASDAQ. ;)
IS there much of a difference between the various OTC*/PINK markets?
My 0.02,
Hey All. I've been watching this board for a while, and finally decided to post something.
I'm kind of torn between the go-on-a-tear-from-here theory that some experienced traders espouse (word?) and a theory of my own - that this stock will continue to flounder until mid-summer.
First theory:
Look at the 5 year chart on yahoo finance. The period from 5/2007 to 11/2010 look remarkably like the 3 year chart from 11/5/2010 to 1/18/2013. I tend to buy into macro and micro patterns - especially when it comes to human behavior. :?
Now if you look at what happend on the 5 year chart after 11/2010, CERP rebounded to 5.75+, roughly equal to the price CERP was at around 3/22/2010. I would say the equivalent of 3/22/2010 on the 3 year chart would be 9/21/2012 - $0.34.
So if CERP behaves in this micro pattern, as it did in the macro pattern, it could run up into the .30s. Not bad! Unfortunately, the micro pattern diverges from the macro in one significant way - after the initial large drop, the macro pattern remained fairly steady, bumping up against $5 regularly. Whereas in the micro pattern, the trend continued to fall after the initial large drop.
But still, accounting for this downward trend, I would say the stock can still move to 0.14. I think this because the downward trend seems to be dropping 10% a month, and given it'll take 2-3 months for the rebound to complete, that would put it at 6-7 months from 9/21/2012, or 60-70% off of 0.34, or 0.10 - 0.14.
Ok, if you can't or don't want to follow all of that, I'm just making a prediction. CERP will be at 0.10 - 0.14 in 2-3 months.
That's the good theory. The bad theory is that this recent run-up is simply an upward correction from the drop that happend after CERP went on the pink sheets on 12/10/2012. That drop amounted to a 0.0239 drop. The close on 1/18/2013 was 0.0115. 0.0115 + 0.0239 = 0.0354. Not too far off from the close on 1/25/2013. And that could be all it was, and we just continue the trend downward from here.
So, that's a big chunk of my thinking on this stock for the last couple of months. Decided I would share. :)
GLTA