My 0.02,
Hey All. I've been watching this board for a while, and finally decided to post something.
I'm kind of torn between the go-on-a-tear-from-here theory that some experienced traders espouse (word?) and a theory of my own - that this stock will continue to flounder until mid-summer.
First theory:
Look at the 5 year chart on yahoo finance. The period from 5/2007 to 11/2010 look remarkably like the 3 year chart from 11/5/2010 to 1/18/2013. I tend to buy into macro and micro patterns - especially when it comes to human behavior. :?
Now if you look at what happend on the 5 year chart after 11/2010, CERP rebounded to 5.75+, roughly equal to the price CERP was at around 3/22/2010. I would say the equivalent of 3/22/2010 on the 3 year chart would be 9/21/2012 - $0.34.
So if CERP behaves in this micro pattern, as it did in the macro pattern, it could run up into the .30s. Not bad! Unfortunately, the micro pattern diverges from the macro in one significant way - after the initial large drop, the macro pattern remained fairly steady, bumping up against $5 regularly. Whereas in the micro pattern, the trend continued to fall after the initial large drop.
But still, accounting for this downward trend, I would say the stock can still move to 0.14. I think this because the downward trend seems to be dropping 10% a month, and given it'll take 2-3 months for the rebound to complete, that would put it at 6-7 months from 9/21/2012, or 60-70% off of 0.34, or 0.10 - 0.14.
Ok, if you can't or don't want to follow all of that, I'm just making a prediction. CERP will be at 0.10 - 0.14 in 2-3 months.
That's the good theory. The bad theory is that this recent run-up is simply an upward correction from the drop that happend after CERP went on the pink sheets on 12/10/2012. That drop amounted to a 0.0239 drop. The close on 1/18/2013 was 0.0115. 0.0115 + 0.0239 = 0.0354. Not too far off from the close on 1/25/2013. And that could be all it was, and we just continue the trend downward from here.
So, that's a big chunk of my thinking on this stock for the last couple of months. Decided I would share. :)
GLTA
