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“Look John, plastic fouls up the machines, produces unsaturated fuels and cost more than the fuel we make… so, this is what we’re going to do, We need to buy more time so we can scam another years salary, so, we will run fuel thru the machines and call it heat transfer fluid, no one will catch on… we will add a little plastic and call it P2O so we can get our sales and production numbers up for the next filing so we can raise more money to pay our salaries for another year… by then we can think of something else just like you did the last 4 years!... “
“Good idea, boy, this P2O works very very well at making US a lot of money snicker”
$9.4 mil - $17.5mil = -$8.1mil
The plastic is worth MORE THAN THE OIL!
Sure they do when their employee see an opportunity to get a cush scam CEO position that is self fulfilling and personally benificial. Inside deals happen all the time for personal gain, especially when it's a scam!
Is JBII Viable?
After 4 years and $50,000,000 they still can't prove it...
SO THE ANSWER IS NO, JBII IS NOT VIABLE!
What does JBII do with unwanted, unsorted and dirty plastic?
After 4 years and $50,000,000
THEY DON'T DO ANYTHING WITH IT!
And if they were smart they would start selling it to the recycling industry for more money than they would get for the value of the oil that they still haven't been able to make.
They are!
The plastic recycling industry has exploded in the last 5 years...
And there are a lot of additional subsidies that have helped to grow the industry...
Plastic prices have doubled in the last 2 years and continue to rise
Check your local recycling programs and you will see that there are plenty of opportunities to make money scrapping plastic and scrapers are... More and more every day!
So you want to rehash the reality?
4 years
$50,000,000
And STILL NO OIL!
What those 'annihilated' numbers prove
IS THAT P2O IS STILL NOT COMMERCIALLY VIABLE!
Stock price down at $1.00 from $7.00
Fraudulent PR's
NO oil
NO progress on hype
NO patent or IP
NO company address to the obvious issues
NO RockTenn machine running (and it was promised when?)
And a permit that ONLY allows post consumer waste to be used at the NY site.
And that same indigestion will cause the P2O machines to foul, rust, and break emissions.
Read the refrence patents that you copied from and you will see that...
Plus you still have the issue of fuel oxidation which gets much worse when you use contaminated plastic.
Because it cost more to seperate it from landfill waste than it's worth.
Same reason why there has been such minimal oil produced at JBI in 4 years...
Because it cost more to buy the plastic than the oil value
And because the cost to seperate it is more than the oil value
And because any sorted supply of plastic can be sold to the recycle industry for more than the oil value
And because when you recycle plastic you can apply for recycling subsidies that the gov has setup to help promote recycling.
P2O does not qualify as recycling.
You still don't get it....
If you have a sorted stream of plastic
"IT'S WORTH MORE AS RECYCLED PLASTIC"
Just sell the plastic and
YOU WILL MAKE MORE THAN THE VALUE OF THE OIL YOU CAN MAKE!
Someone has to catch on already...
Step 1. Get specific sorted plastic #2, 4, 5, and 7
Step 2. Make Oil
In step 1 you must buy presorted plastic
OR
You must separate the plastic from a waste stream
If you buy presorted plastic you will pay a minimum of $600 per ton for it
If you separate it from a waste stream you will have plastic that is now worth at minimum $600 per ton on the open recycling market.
http://www.plasticsnews.com/resin/recycled-plastics/current-pricing
In the BEST POSSIBLE CASE SCENARIO here is the math-
One ton of plastic / 8lbs per gallon of fuel = 250 gallons
250 gallons / 42 = 5.95 barrels of fuel
$110 sell price per barrel amounts to a total of $655 oil from one ton of plastic
In step 1 you could PAY $600 or SEPARATE and create a $600 commodity…
Either way you have SPENT $50,000,000 to end up with NO NET PROFIT
Because it will cost more than $55 to separate the plastic.
Once you have SEPARATED the plastic STOP AT STEP 1, sell the plastic and you can possibly make a profit. The open market price for separated plastic goes up to $1500 per ton!
Did the SAIC report did not address the cost of feedstock vs. the open market value of the feedstock?
So at an average price of $1000 per ton for the separated plastic…
IF you could separate enough plastic to run just one reactor at 100% for a year… (that in itself will be quite a challenge)
Just selling the plastic outright would generate $17,520,000
OR you could spend $50,000,000 of shareholders money and put that $17.5mil plastic in a reactor and hope it can run long enough in a year to make $10mill worth of fuel. (and lose $7.5mil a year vs the value of selling the plastic… not counting ANY other overhead and expenses)
Hell, build 3 and run them to lose $22.5mil a year vs the value of the plastic, but be sure to string your shareholders along for as long as possible…
Sounds like easy OPM in the bank!
You missed the point... They HAVE INVENTED and PATENTED P2O technology.... unlike this inferior copycat that has continued to demonstrate what the 'experts in the field' already know, that using the PATENTED (by other INVENTORS) technology is not commercially viable unless you BS the variables and then have a third party come in and state that when they are using the BS variables that it will work.
Validating a fantasy as a fantasy does not turn it into reality... ITS STILL A FANTASY
"Potential new investors" will hopefully do their homework and find that it is not commercially viable or there would be plenty of 'experts in the field' doing it with their PATENTED technology.
You know, oil companies, plastic companies, waste management companies... All the people that have been working on and analyzing this for the last 20 years and have continuously concluded that its not commercially viable. Those that are in the best position to benefit from P2O patents that they currently hold yet cannot make it make financial sense.
Not some data technician with a over inflated, failed and flawed sales pitch and a 4 year proven track record that proves that this simply isn't possible.
Not to worry... These enormous quantities of industrial plastic that hardly needs sorting are being 'allocated for true value' as we speak...
snicker
btw, thanks for the great lead ;)
When it comes to plastic, you get what you pay for.
If you want contaminated mixed plastic that will foul up your machines and break the set emission standards, sure you can get truckloads at (only) $500 a ton.
If you want good, sorted plastic you will pay at least $750 a ton.
If it (only) takes 8 lbs to make a gallon
and (on the best days) you get 6 US brls/ton
IT WILL COST $125/brl JUST IN PLASTIC!
now add your $10 overhead cost (yeah, right, more like $50mill)
and you are selling $110/brl fuel for a $25 loss!!!
This math is not double dipping, or accounting for ANY other issues previously pointed out AND it is the BEST CASE SCENARIO
(meaning min price for good sorted plastic, max yield for the process, round UP to make it juicier, minimum overhead cost, and at a sell price of $110/brl which is NOT what a WHOLESALE buyer would pay btw).
And if I was RockTenn why on earth would I put plastic in a machine (that holds no IP advantage for my business model and could make me the target of an infringement lawsuit) to turn it into anything.... and lose time and money.... when I could sell the plastic on the open market for more and do nothing to it?
Just an added point to all of the other problems....
Landfill plastic cost time and money to extract it,
once its extracted it has more value as plastic than it has turning it into oil.
When you are permitted to ONLY use landfill plastic and you can ONLY put half of the landfill plastic in the machine or you create toxins and deadly corrosive gasses that will rust and foul up your machine and break emission regulations... then you have more problems.
Once you extract HALF of the landfill plastic that you can use, what do you do with the other half? Pay to put it in a landfill (ANOTHER UNMENTIONED ADDED COST) and if you actually started doing this on a regular basis or somehow managed to run at maximum capacity, in a years time you will have dumped over 100,000 tons of UNUSABLE plastic into a landfill! (that would put you on the map as one of the biggest plastic contributors to negative environmental impact in the state of NY if not the country)
I have not seen or heard of ANY plastic processing equipment or methods mentioned for JBI... if they were doing this it would be a good idea to let them know that they could qualify for recycling status if they sold the plastic that they separated... and between the break even cost of doing this and the recycling subsides they could get they might just make a buck or two... oh, that's right, that would get used to pay for the dumping license they would need to get rid of that much BAD plastic that they don't use!
In the end it will become obvious why making oil for only $10 a brl on a commercial level is a misguided fraud...
and after 4 years and $50mill it should have become even more obvious that... IT IS A LIE.
Good plastic is not FREE
FREE plastic is not good!
We have gotten off track here...
Logistics, problems
Output fuel, problems
Strategic alliance, problems
Math, problems
Overhead, problems
Patent, problems
Proof of commercialization, problems
but now we are on the root of all problems-
THERE IS A CONCERTED EFFORT BY THE POWERS THAT BE TO KEEP THIS JUST OUT OF REACH FOR COMMERCIAL VIABILITY!
And as long as there is more money to be made elsewhere the money will not be made making fuel from plastic in the US.
OK, lets go with your numbers then....
When it comes to plastic, you get what you pay for.
If you want contaminated mixed plastic that will foul up your machines and break the set emission standards, sure you can get truckloads at $500 a ton.
If you want good, sorted plastic you will pay $750 a ton.
If it takes 9 lbs to make a gallon
and you get 7 brls/ton
IT WILL COST $107/brl IN PLASTIC!
now add your $10 overhead cost (more like $50mill)
and you are selling $100/brl fuel for a $17 loss!!!
This math is not double dipping, or accounting for ANY other issues previously pointed out
Just an added point to all of the other problems....
Good plastic is not FREE
FREE plastic is not good!
That's right... he did point that out to me, that is why i posted the correction.
You do understand that that hurts the math.
The point is, that being VERY giving on the numbers IT TAKES 50+ TRUCKS A DAY OF PLASTIC DELIVERIES!
That doesn't account for the 25 TRUCKS A DAY OF WASTE THAT NEEDS SHIPPED OUT TO A LANDFILL!
FREE plastic ISN'T FREE!
The cost, manpower and overhead to get the FREE plastic out of any feed source is expensive! and shipments of good, sorted plastic will have the overhead cost built into the cost... $500-$1000 a ton to purchase. That is what the open market is paying for plastic!
Maybe this can help make it more obvious to understand what is going on with JBI-
Once upon a time,
A long time ago…
There was a blacksmith named Johnny that heard the legends of a chicken that produced golden eggs.
As the legend tells, the chicken was just an ordinary chicken, but it was fed ash from metal forging and somehow the ash was magically transformed and this otherwise ordinary chicken produced… golden eggs.
Well the blacksmith had a few chickens and produced a lot of ash… so he thought, what would be the harm in exploring the possibilities of proving the legend?
He carefully fed one of his chickens ash from his fire.. and nothing special happened. He was determined to discover the secret to this legend so he continued to feed all of his chickens ash for many days. Eventually, some of the chickens died, Johnny learned that there were about 9 types of ash that were commonly known but he only had 3 types in his cinders. He noticed that the chickens that died were eating #1 and #3 ash and found that the #8 ash did nothing for the chickens but make his coop a real mess.
One day a stranger passed through town and needed his horse re-shoed. The type of steel the horseshoes were made from was foreign to those parts but Johnny thought nothing of it… until the next day he noticed that this steel produced #2 #4 and #5 ash. Johnny was eager to feed his remaining chickens the new ash with the hopes of producing just one golden egg. With great excitement Johnny went about attempting to segregate the new ash from the bad ash, he didn’t want to lose any more chickens, but he was excited to test his newfound feedstock.
After feeding many days of ash he unfortunately lost more chickens due to cross contamination of the different types of ashes but before disposing of the dead chickens he noticed a glimmer from the hindquarters of on of his expired foul. Upon further observation and a bit of dissecting, low and behold… A GOLDEN EGG!
Johnny was so excited he nearly produced an egg himself… and so he set out to find a way to get his hands on some #2 #4 and #5 ash and some more chickens.
After showing his family and friends the golden egg Johnny’s ego was bloated and the thought of being rich was drooling down his chin.
Johnny traveled to the town where the stranger was from to find his coveted ash and for a few weeks he tinkered and trodden about feeding chickens and producing a few golden eggs… but to his dismay he began to notice that the original golden egg began to rust.
Rust!, how can this be?! Gold doesn’t rust?
Johnny sought the help of a local jeweler and he made many friends that enlisted in the search for riches. The jeweler studied the golden egg and found that the gold was actually a synthetic gold that was missing some of its chemistry. He concluded that it would completely rust away at a very rapid rate unless something could be done to fix the chemistry. “Can you fix the chemistry?” Johnny asked anxiously. “Its certainly worth a try” said the jeweler, and so they proceeded to move forward attempting to correct the flaw in their golden opportunity.
Johnny became worried that his dream of wealth was only that, a dream. However, his newfound friends saw an opportunity. “Look Johnny, the idea of a chicken that produces golden eggs can make us a lot of money” the friends said. “all we have to do is show people a fresh egg and show one being laid and we can get a lot of people to fund a huge chicken farm”. “But what happens when the eggs rust?” Johnny asks… “well it will take time to build our farm and in the mean time the jeweler can find an answer to the chemistry problem”. Johnny asks his friends “but what if he doesn’t”? “by that time we will be rich and powerful and it wont much matter then will it?” the friends conclude.
So they set out to raise money off of their well polished sales pitch traveling from town to town, “well step right up, see it with your own eyes, what we have here ladies and gentlemen is a chicken laying a genuine golden egg! Come one, come all, put your penny in the slot and collect your official certified certificate of ownership in Johnny’s Golden Ranch… Guaranteed to make each and every one of you wealthy beyond belief!”
Meanwhile, back at the ranch…
So it turns out that the valuable secret #2, #4 and #5 ash is incredibly hard to separate from the other ash and the individual scattered locations where you find it are difficult to gather and bring back to their farm. Even worse Johnny and his friends find that the ash they need is the same ash that is used as fertilizer and all of the heavy ash producing locations are already sorting, bagging and selling it at a nice profit to farmers. An even bigger problem is that the chicken farmers everywhere are angry that everyone is stealing their chickens and killing them off feeding them common ash in hopes of getting rich when they already know that the golden eggs are a waste of a perfectly good egg since they have know for years that the golden eggs rust and no one wants bacon and rusty eggs in the morning..
“A fine mess we have gotten ourselves in” Johnny says, but his friends clamor “are you kidding, this is working out great, we have become rich, built a nice farm, made a lot of high-flut’n connections and we just might be able to ease our way out of this if we play our cards right… you just keep preaching about the golden egg and all that wasted ash and we will keep raising more money”. “Well why don’t we just produce golden eggs, then we won’t need to take those suckers money” “because the eggs are no good! And who wants to do all that work anyway ya hairbrain… now get back to preaching or we’ll find someone else to front the scam, er, I mean business endeav’er”
Things don’t get much better for our boys in the coming years… Eventually the chicken farmers have a meeting with the local sheriff and tip him off to the unethical practices… they just want the whole mess to go away so they can get back to raising chickens and not have to deal with the skyrocketing prices of chickens, theft, and devastation of the chicken population, their livelihood is threatened and they are not about to stand for it any longer. The sheriff sets out to put a stop to the charade.
Front end logistics are still a significant problem…
However the bigger problem is now the basis of the company itself.
There has been much talk of the greatness of these “special” machines that have been developed and the “secret” catalyst that is used. After reading the patent application that was filed (and being a patent holder myself) some obvious points come to light-
The application was very poorly written.
The “invention” is in no way “novel” this is just a beginner’s copy of existing patents.
The catalysts are spelled out in the application and it is obvious that there is nothing “special” or “secret” here. In fact, the reason the “fuel” is obtained has little to do with the catalysts, it is a simple process that is explained in the application which essentially says that any output that is not desired is simply diverted back to the reactor to be cracked again. This is a poor design based on other patents that exist and this essentially makes the use of catalysts a waste of time anyway.
The use of water in the system in an attempt to saturate the fuel and prevent oxidation is a known problem that is pointed out in other patents and is a common fact known by those of us who use pyrolysis.
It becomes clear that this is a work in progress by a beginner in the field. The machine design itself is not very far along the learning curve. Try reading some of the referenced patents and it becomes clear that this is an “entry level” attempt at best.
It almost looks like this application was submitted for the sole purpose of smoke screening. No licensed patent attorney would knowingly submit such an application with the hope of winning a patent, the claims are an obvious copy of existing patents! Unless of course it was submitted knowingly just so it could be legally stated that the technology was “patent pending” and even that has unethical written all over it.
The much bigger problem here is the fact that the company has no intellectual property, so the company has nothing to license or sell to potential customers and what’s worse is that the technology being used is directly infringing other existing patents. Not only can the company be forced into stoppage by an injunction but far worse is that the customers of the company can be sued as well and the customer may have an indemnification clause in their purchase agreement where the company agrees to pay the customer’s legal fees and any damages if they are sued or joined in an infringement suit.
A patent infringement lawsuit typically will cost $1mill or more in legal fees alone. It is not uncommon for even simple patent infringement lawsuits to end up costing a company $2 - $5mill. If you lose the lawsuit, you will then be responsible for paying treble damages to the patent owner along with attorney's fees. The attorneys' fees alone can put the company out of business. Most insurance policies do not cover patent infringement.
Knowing what I know, I was skeptical of this company at first… now I’m far past skeptical and I would like to try to help those of you that care to see what is really going on.
If I didn’t care I wouldn’t waste the time to share my thoughts. I just think it’s sad to see so many people get caught up in this.
If you are a blind long and happy limiting your knowledge, fine with me.
In the end it’s your money…
Do what you want.
More math problems-
Using the SAIC numbers
80% yield per 4000 of plastic = 3200 per hour
75% run time to allow for planned and unplanned system outages = 18 hrs/day run time
3200 of plastic * 18 hours per day run time = 57600 pounds of plastic/day
/9 the number of gal for pound of plastic = 6400 gallons of fuel/day
/31.5 = 203.17 barrels/day
At $90 a barrel = $18285.71
*365 = $6,674,286 per year per reactor
I am led to believe that currently the company is burning $1mill per month in operating cost which = $12mill/year.
If all 3 processors went online at maximum run,
nothing goes wrong,
plastic is free,
a continuous supply of plastic can be shipped, managed and processed with no added overhead,
no added expenditures for more processors, rework, repairs, personnel, legal fees, fuel shipping cost/storage or anything else
the price of oil remains the same
a buyer at $100 a barrel can be consistently secured
In a perfect world based on everything falling exactly into place, I can see that it is possible to break even in a year and possibly turn a profit of $8mill!
So, it will only take 6 years to break even on the $48mill spent so far.
Wonder what the life expectancy of a high temperature reactor is… continuous run for 6 years with no failures, downtime, repair cost, or replacement cost… for 6 years… hmmm
The biggest issue that still needs addressed is the problem with oxidation of synthetic fuel. Just because its in spec doesn’t mean that it’s saturated. When you crack plastic you are breaking the molecular chains, which means that you are missing a hydrogen atom. This makes it prone to oxidation and renders it bad within days of being made.
Ever wonder why they haven’t been running, producing and storing fuel to sell?
Aside from the FREE plastic logistics issue there is a much darker factor at play here that will soon come to light.
I had one of our shipping staff come up and take a look at the posted pic of the JBI plastic feedstock delivery and provide a professional opinion, here is what he said-
60 foot trailers are rarely used unless absolutely necessary (long loads of pipe or assembled construction materials) There is an up charge for using long trailers. The typical trailer is only 48 feet long.
The containers pictured appear to be 3'x5'x4' and they are an oddball PITA container because they need to be pin wheeled which means you have to alternate wide then narrow when loading them. They are difficult to stack more than 2 high on the trailer. These issues are not a problem though because they are typically used to transport metal parts and that is the reason that it is not a big deal to waste so much space because when you load metal parts in them it only takes 20 of these containers to reach max weight limits.
I asked him about using them for transporting plastic and he said "We would never ship our scrap plastic that way, it would cost us 30-40% more in freight cost and it is very time consuming to load and unload, we use heavyweight reinforced boxes and bags which are both cheap and easy to handle and there is no need to pay freight charges to get them there and back"
He went on to say that the most that would fit on a trailed is 24 containers and he agreed that the weight of 800lbs is believable if it’s not ground plastic.
SO... you are correct there Raw my math was wrong... the REALITY is that it would take more like 10 deliveries of allegedly 'free' plastic to fill just one tanker!
24x800=19200
Subtract 70% for unusable plastic, gasses, char and you have around 5760lbs
divide this by 9 since that is the average amount of plastic to fuel and you get
640 gallons per trailer delivery of allegedly 'free' plastic
6000/640=9.375
Look, I’m just trying to help you out here.
No one would like to see this work more than I, but I have seen plenty of good ideas go down the tubes because of mismanaged, over reaching, starry eyed ego guys that get caught-up in the fame and money they make when they sell stock and raise tons of money. They find themselves in a situation where they throw money at every problem and piss the rest away with the feeling that is it easy to raise more.
The fundamental problems here are obvious.
As I said, I will explain more as I have time, but the picture of the scrap plastic that was purported to being used was a blatant red flag that needs to be explored. That picture represents the perfect piece of propaganda that perpetuates a terribly false assumption... and that is that the feedstock is free and therefore commercialization is possible at $10 a barrel.
Bullshit!
When doing this as a backyard project or on a small scale, sure,
look, I can pick apples, it’s easy and they are free
ok, let’s start an apple business and sell our free apples for $.10 each... fine from a roadside stand, you can make a few bucks picking the low hanging fruit, but when you get an order for 500,000 apples there become significant overhead costs associated with those 'free' apples. At $.10 each you go out of business.
When you need substantial amounts of feedstock to produce the amount of fuel touted by this company it is not going to be free.
That was just one glaring issue that I had to point out, like it or not the logistics are a killer.
The next point I will discuss is one very near and dear to me, (so I have a professional opinion on it that I can share if you care to hear it) and that is the state of recycled plastic and its market value vs. the misconception of free 'useable' plastic going to landfills.
BTW,
P2O works...
The successful commercialization of P2O has been a sad failure worldwide for 40+ years.
There are several persistent questions that I have read on here-
1. Why aren’t they running the two existing reactors to full potential?
2. Why aren’t there substantial sales of fuel?
3. Why is JBI spending $1mill per month with perhaps negligible success in 4 yrs?
4. Why do so many people seem to think there are misrepresentations by the co.?
5. Why hasn’t there been substantial environmentally funded support?
6. Why would the company even need to raise money if it has sound technology?
7. Can this be done at $10 a barrel?
I’m sure there are more questions but I think this is a good start.
Next there are some ‘hidden’ points that I believe are relevant even if no one on here really understands the technical process-
1. What do we do about P2O synthetic fuel oxidation?
2. What does a catalyst really do?
3. How much added cost is there when using a catalyst?
4. Why can’t you use all types of plastic since they are all made of hydrocarbons?
5. What are the variables of fuel output based on plastic input variables?
6. Who are the current ‘players’ in the scrap/recycled plastic market?
7. What is the current market price of good useable plastic?
8. Who are the ‘powers that be’ that have motive to prevent this technology & why?
From these points I can tell you that there are a number of substantial factors that weigh heavily against the commercial viability of this company. Couple that with an obvious misguided lust for flamboyant PR and you create a monster. What I mean by that is that an overzealous tinkerer has painted a best case scenario full of false assumptions contrived from generalized impressions of fact. He then prematurely shouted it from the rooftops and developed a base of followers. He himself may have believed his original numbers but if/upon learning that the realistic picture is much different than his far reaching assumptions, it was too late to correct the public’s misguided perception.
This takes me to the most important question that someone has posted-
P2O, concept or business?
I know there is a sentiment of comfort that is fostered in the alleged RockTenn agreement, however, I fail to see how this arrangement makes financial sense.
The problem her is that RockTenn has a well established and long standing profitable recycling operation in place. They deal scrap plastic and strive to maximize profits from it. The obvious problem here is that the exact same types of plastic that JBI needs has a current market in place that pays well for it. If you were RockTenn it simply doesn’t make financial sense to redirect a profitable product in the direction of a less profitable option without at least equal compensation.
This also exposes the original BIG misconception of $10 a barrel based on FREE plastic.
The secondary misconception here is that plastic is free because it goes in landfills by the megatons. This is partially true. Plastic is wasted and ends up in landfills. There is a financially sound reason for this… it is not economically feasible to separate and recover it. I have had lengthy candid discussions with numerous waste management companies and they all agree that there is great value in the plastic going into landfills and that this plastic can fetch $500-$1000 a ton in the scrap plastic market. The problem is that it costs $500-$1000 to separate, sort and grind it. Until there is a financial motivation to do this, it is not going to happen.
Here lies the next significant factor- Government/environmental funding/subsidies for recycling. A few years back there were a number of programs created to promote and encourage recycling. Plastic recycling companies popped up overnight. The recycling of plastic was made financially viable due to these subsidies, but in turn this helped to drive the price of scrap plastic up… over double the pre-recycling initiative price. This hurts JBI in 2 ways… first the price of feedstock is higher, and second, by the initiatives definition, P2O is not considered ‘recycling’.
Let me leave you with two additional points to consider-
1. What do you think the all powerful oil companies position is on this matter… they currently make money supporting the recycling of plastic to make plastic, they lose money if a JBI P2O company makes fuel… they are not about to give an inch unless it benefits them…. In the current state of affairs, it doesn’t. (I know there will be a number of shoot from the hip comments on this, but spend a little time on this first and you will see that there is a cartel like concerted effort at play here… and you really don’t believe for a second that the gov and oil companies really care a bit about the environment or solving the plastic waste problem… do you?).
2. If you have a chicken that lays golden eggs… show me the money, er, I mean… oil.
Logistics… the killer is in the details boys
Has anyone bothered to do the simple math?
There was a picture posted a few days back that showed a truck full of bailed plastic and another picture of two tanker trucks.
From my experience I know that the bails, which are not ground plastic, (ground plastic of the desired types weighs in at around 1000lbs for a 4x4x4 container) would weigh, at best around 500lbs (that’s being very generous but lets use that to make the math easier).
So, a maximum size trailer at 60ft long can hold 60 bails (15 deep x 2 wide x 2 tall). In the picture it seems that they are using 2’ tall bails and only stacking them 3 high, but let’s be more generous and try to help the numbers out here (and hope that they can get a better handle on the situation to improve their shipping cost).
From this we can conclude- that each truck delivers 30,000lbs of plastic. (maybe up to 40,000 but not likely based on the obvious amount of voids (crushed bottles, paper and cardboard)in the picture)
Now we know that it takes 8-10lbs of plastic to produce a gallon of fuel.
But wait, 10-12% will result in off gasses,
And 2-4% will end up as char,
And unwashed, unsorted (simply not possible, but I will address that in future posts) plastic can contain upwards of 20-50% contamination… but lets be generous and only say 6% so we can again make the math easy to follow (and avoid the pumpers accusing misguided extremes).
That means that on average, 11% + 3% + 6% = 20% that will not end up as fuel. (remember, only counting 6% for the 20-50% contamination, diff of -14% to -44% but lets go with it just so you can see the more massive problems here)
But wait… there’s more…
From the picture (and personal experience) it can clearly be seen that this is mixed plastic (is there any processing equipment in the plant, or is Johnny going to cut off all those rings of different plastic from every bottle by hand?).
From the JBI website we know that they can only use #2, #4, #5 and #7 (highly doubt that #7 is true… more on that later).
Now it is clear that at least half of the plastic is unusable, only 3 of the 9 plastics are usable so it may be much more than 50% and especially since PETE #1 accounts for a large percentage of post consumer waste (soft drinks, sports drinks, water, juice and milk… usually any clear bottle or container) and #9 ABS is one of the most abundantly used plastics for consumer electronics like PCs, TVs, household items and gadgets. Lets not forget the incredibly fast growing trend of bio-plastics which is typically starch or cellulose based and would result in catastrophic consequences (really big boom) if accidentally mixed into a catalytic cracking reactor in any substantial amount.
Btw- it is estimated that the mass majority of consumer plastic will be bio-plastic by the end of this decade… (better hope Johnny boy has a secret catalyst that can take the oxygen out of bio-plastic or the days of P2O are surely numbered)
Read more: Types of Plastic Bottles | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_5505346_types-plastic-bottles.html#ixzz2IjSii3gk
Also any packaging that comes from China (all those clear blister packs that are a pain to open) are so full of nasty fillers that there is no way to run them without fouling things up or producing dangerous and problematic compounds (ever wonder why all that plastic that comes from China never seems to have a recycle number on it).
So now we are down to only 30% of that 30,000lbs that will become fuel to fill the tankers… that means only 9000lbs per truckload. (probably more like 5000lbs)
Therefore; each 6000 gallon tanker requires (being very generous) 6 truckloads of plastic!
If you want to gauge output someone should start counting trucks in for delivery. (are there steady streams of trucks delivering enormous amounts of plastic every day???)
[Critical side note; If the 2 machines were actually running at full capacity that would require at minimum, 50 trucks a day. Btw, how big is the delivery bay, the warehouse, the sorting area? How many people are currently working at the plant? Do you realize how much manpower and overhead is required to manage, unload, sort and warehouse 50 truckloads? Tap,tap,tap… is anyone in there?]
This is just the tip of the iceberg… the manpower to extract the useable from the unusable plastic, the space and equipment, and the disposal (shipping and disposal cost) of the unusable plastic and the shear logistics is a considerable amount of seemingly unaccounted overhead. (plus the bad press and negative rap that will come from JBI becoming the leading contributor of plastic waste to landfills for the 750,000lbs of unusable plastic that they will have to dispose of EVERY DAY if this actually gets up and running)
Oh, that’s not a problem you say… they will just get good sources of free plastic….
Fat chance!
Good, sorted plastic, of the type that is needed is selling for $600-$1000 a ton and the price is increasing every day, the prices have doubled in the last 2 years.
Maybe we should do more math on the overhead cost of useable plastic and extrapolate the profit margin. The $10 per barrel cost assumes FREE plastic with NO overhead.
The logistics are the killer in the details.
There is so much more that you are in the dark about, why do you think the oil companies have sat on many patents pertaining to this for so long? Why is it that P2O was discovered way back when plastic was invented yet the plastics industry has ignored it?
Why aren’t the polymer chemists, the petroleum engineers and the waste management specialists doing this (the people trained in the art with knowledge, experience and expertise) but a lowly data technician comes along with some snake oil and you automatically assume that his fast talking sales pitch is the cure-all. Somehow a guy with no credibility and an obvious negative history is going to school the experts.
One last question to consider-
Why not focus on running just one machine and produce product? If it was logistically and financially sound, why not just let the chicken lay the golden eggs and not raise money to build a chicken farm?
For the savvy investor it is wise to do your homework… otherwise you are not investing YOU ARE GAMBLING! (sad part is you obviously don’t know the rules to the game).
Just heads I win, tales you lose’n
Just so you know...
#6 fuel is the lowest grade of fuel.
It is like "peanut butter" and is acceptable to have contaminates and impurities. It is by far the easiest fuel to make using pyrolysis and it does not require a catalyst. It is also the cheapest.
Number 6 fuel oil is a high-viscosity residual oil requiring preheating to 220 – 260 °F. Residual means the material remaining after the more valuable cuts of crude oil have boiled off. The residue may contain various undesirable impurities including 2 percent water and one-half percent mineral soil. This fuel may be known as residual fuel oil (RFO), by the Navy specification of Bunker C, or by the Pacific Specification of PS-400. The high viscosity requires heating, usually by a recirculated low pressure steam system, before the oil can be pumped from a bunker tank. It is commonly referred to as "bunker fuel".
It's not exactly a high achievement for output of such a highly regarded process. The use of #6 fuel has been banned or is being phased out across the country and as a result the price has plunged to well below $1/gal. because of supply/demand. Refineries have been using catalysts for years to aid in the refinement of #6 fuel into lighter fractions (not to produce them).
An important question that needs further investigation is-
Does JBI have or are they applying for the proper licenses to sell any grade of fuel above #6. (a blending license is not a license to sell road grade fuel).
Another important basic question-
What exactly was tested and declared "in spec fuel"?
since naphtha is used as an additive and not a fuel and #6 fuel has such a low level needed for "approval".
It would be sad to find out that all the hype was just that...
It appears more and more like a lot was made of nothing by a guy that didn't really know what he was doing but was quickly becoming wealthy from his honest enthusiasm (much debate on the use of the word honest here).
One more point that my colleague pointed out...
You can buy PATENTED plastic to oil machines all day long for well under $100,000.
All of those patents referenced in the JBI application from Japan and China, well, they have been doing this for over 10 years throughout Asia.
http://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=patented+waste+plastic+pyrolysis+plant
Kind of takes the wind out of the sails when you see how many patented P2O machines are being made by so many different companies.
Not so "novel" anymore is it?
Front end logistics are still a significant problem…
However the bigger problem is now the basis of the company itself.
There has been much talk of the greatness of these “special” machines that have been developed and the “secret” catalyst that is used. After reading the patent application that was filed (and being a patent holder myself) some obvious points come to light-
The application was very poorly written.
The “invention” is in no way “novel” this is just a beginner’s copy of existing patents.
The catalysts are spelled out in the application and it is obvious that there is nothing “special” or “secret” here. In fact, the reason the “fuel” is obtained has little to do with the catalysts, it is a simple process that is explained in the application which essentially says that any output that is not desired is simply diverted back to the reactor to be cracked again. This is a poor design based on other patents that exist and this essentially makes the use of catalysts a waste of time anyway.
The use of water in the system in an attempt to saturate the fuel and prevent oxidation is a known problem that is pointed out in other patents and is a common fact known by those of us who use pyrolysis.
It becomes clear that this is a work in progress by a beginner in the field. The machine design itself is not very far along the learning curve. Try reading some of the referenced patents and it becomes clear that this is an “entry level” attempt at best.
It almost looks like this application was submitted for the sole purpose of smoke screening. No licensed patent attorney would knowingly submit such an application with the hope of winning a patent, the claims are an obvious copy of existing patents! Unless of course it was submitted knowingly just so it could be legally stated that the technology was “patent pending” and even that has unethical written all over it.
The much bigger problem here is the fact that the company has no intellectual property, so the company has nothing to license or sell to potential customers and what’s worse is that the technology being used is directly infringing other existing patents. Not only can the company be forced into stoppage by an injunction but far worse is that the customers of the company can be sued as well and the customer may have an indemnification clause in their purchase agreement where the company agrees to pay the customer’s legal fees and any damages if they are sued or joined in an infringement suit.
A patent infringement lawsuit typically will cost $1mill or more in legal fees alone. It is not uncommon for even simple patent infringement lawsuits to end up costing a company $2 - $5mill. If you lose the lawsuit, you will then be responsible for paying treble damages to the patent owner along with attorney's fees. The attorneys' fees alone can put the company out of business. Most insurance policies do not cover patent infringement.
Knowing what I know, I was skeptical of this company at first… now I’m far past skeptical and I would like to try to help those of you that care to see what is really going on.
If I didn’t care I wouldn’t waste the time to share my thoughts. I just think it’s sad to see so many people get caught up in this.
If you are a blind long and happy limiting your knowledge, fine with me.
In the end it’s your money…
Do what you want.
Logistics… the killer is in the details boys
Has anyone bothered to do the simple math?
There was a picture posted a few days back that showed a truck full of bailed plastic and another picture of two tanker trucks.
From my experience I know that the bails, which are not ground plastic, (ground plastic of the desired types weighs in at around 1000lbs for a 4x4x4 container) would weigh, at best around 500lbs (that’s being very generous but lets use that to make the math easier).
So, a maximum size trailer at 60ft long can hold 60 bails (15 deep x 2 wide x 2 tall). In the picture it seems that they are using 2’ tall bails and only stacking them 3 high, but let’s be more generous and try to help the numbers out here (and hope that they can get a better handle on the situation to improve their shipping cost).
From this we can conclude- that each truck delivers 30,000lbs of plastic. (maybe up to 40,000 but not likely based on the obvious amount of voids (crushed bottles, paper and cardboard)in the picture)
Now we know that it takes 8-10lbs of plastic to produce a gallon of fuel.
But wait, 10-12% will result in off gasses,
And 2-4% will end up as char,
And unwashed, unsorted (simply not possible, but I will address that in future posts) plastic can contain upwards of 20-50% contamination… but lets be generous and only say 6% so we can again make the math easy to follow (and avoid the pumpers accusing misguided extremes).
That means that on average, 11% + 3% + 6% = 20% that will not end up as fuel.
But wait… there’s more…
From the picture (and personal experience) it can clearly be seen that this is mixed plastic (a future post will explore this logistical nightmare more).
From the JBI website we know that they can only use #2, #4, #5 and #7 (highly doubt that #7 is true… more on that later).
Now it is clear that at least half of the plastic is unusable, only 3 of the 9 plastics are usable so it may be much more than 50% and especially since PETE #1 accounts for a large percentage of post consumer waste (soft drinks, sports drinks, water, juice and milk… usually any clear bottle or container) and #9 ABS is one of the most abundantly used plastics for consumer electronics like PCs, TVs, household items and gadgets. Lets not forget the incredibly fast growing trend of bio-plastics which is typically starch or cellulose based and would result in catastrophic consequences (really big boom) if accidentally mixed into a catalytic cracking reactor in any substantial amount.
Btw- it is estimated that the mass majority of consumer plastic will be bio-plastic by the end of this decade… (better hope Johnny boy has a secret catalyst that can take the oxygen out of bio-plastic or the days of P2O are surely numbered)
Read more: Types of Plastic Bottles | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_5505346_types-plastic-bottles.html#ixzz2IjSii3gk
Also any packaging that comes from China (all those clear blister packs that are a pain to open) are so full of nasty fillers that there is no way to run them without fouling things up or producing dangerous and problematic compounds (ever wonder why all that plastic that comes from China never seems to have a recycle number on it).
So now we are down to only 30% of that 30,000lbs that will become fuel to fill the tankers… that means only 9000lbs per truckload. (probably more like 5000lbs)
Therefore; each 6000 gallon tanker requires (being very generous) 6 truckloads of plastic!
If you want to gauge output someone should start counting trucks in for delivery. (are there steady streams of trucks delivering enormous amounts of plastic every day???)
[Critical side note; If the 2 machines were actually running at full capacity that would require at minimum, 50 trucks a day. Btw, how big is the delivery bay, the warehouse, the sorting area? How many people are currently working at the plant? Do you realize how much manpower and overhead is required to manage, unload, sort and warehouse 50 truckloads? Tap,tap,tap… is anyone in there?]
This is just the tip of the iceberg… the manpower to extract the useable from the unusable plastic, the space and equipment, and the disposal (shipping and disposal cost) of the unusable plastic and the shear logistics is a considerable amount of seemingly unaccounted overhead. (plus the bad press and negative rap that will come from JBI becoming the leading contributor of plastic waste to landfills for the 750,000lbs of unusable plastic that they will have to dispose of EVERY DAY if this actually gets up and running)
Oh, that’s not a problem you say… they will just get good sources of free plastic….
Fat chance!
Good, sorted plastic, of the type that is needed is selling for $600-$1000 a ton and the price is increasing every day, the prices have doubled in the last 2 years.
Maybe we should do more math on the overhead cost of useable plastic and extrapolate the profit margin. The $10 per barrel cost assumes FREE plastic with NO overhead.
The logistics are the killer in the details.
There is so much more that you are in the dark about, why do you think the oil companies have sat on many patents pertaining to this for so long? Why is it that P2O was discovered way back when plastic was invented yet the plastics industry has ignored it?
Why aren’t the polymer chemists, the petroleum engineers and the waste management specialists doing this (the people trained in the art with knowledge, experience and expertise) but a lowly data technician comes along with some snake oil and you automatically assume that his fast talking sales pitch is the cure-all. Somehow a guy with no credibility and an obvious negative history is going to school the experts.
One last question to consider-
Why not focus on running just one machine and produce product? If it was logistically and financially sound, why not just let the chicken lay the golden eggs and not raise money to build a chicken farm?
For the savvy investor it is wise to do your homework… otherwise you are not investing YOU ARE GAMBLING! (sad part is you obviously don’t know the rules to the game).
Just heads I win, tales you lose’n
Just a question....
Now that it has been stated that the third processor is a three tank system, which sounds like a complete redesign...
Does this mean that the first 2 processors don't/won't work or have a limited/reduced run capacity (perhaps explaining why they haven't been producing for years) and are now obsolete/scrap metal?
It would be difficult to make money when you only run 1 processor at $10mill/year when you spend $12mill/year and have $48mill of ground to makeup. That's IF you can overcome all of the obvious challenges with ACTUALLY running ONE processor and producing something worthwhile for $10brl to make $10mill AND fighting all the 'powers that be' that have long ago adopted and financially gain from their endeavors which P2O is in direct conflict with.
One case in point-
http://www.swana.org/pdf/swana_pdf_635.pdf
I completely agree with both you and Snow...
The missing variables are all EXPENSES
For example, the high cost of using a catalyst... not just its cost but the down time to manage it, you see it needs to be rejuvenated which means that it has to have the coke removed for it to work... oh, and btw that coke is a result of a significant loss in output so you will see a trade off, as much as 50% less output when using a catalyst.
The addition of expensive stabilizers to treat the synthetic fuel so it won't oxidize.
And lets not forget the real issue which is the rising cost of good feedstock or the needed overhead to process the 'free' stuff.
As for the issue of the missing hydrogen... It is well know by those skilled in the art of hydro cracking that when you take a long chain molecule that is stable, such as plastic, when you crack it you are essentially breaking the long chain to make shorter chains. The simplest hydrocarbon is methane CH4. If you break off a methane from a long chain say C32H66 you end up with C31H63 and an unsaturated CH3, they are now both missing a hydrogen at the break point represented by the 'X'-
..HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCH
..HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
..HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH........H
HCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCX....XCH
..HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH........H
If you continue to crack the cracked long chain molecule you end up with missing hydrogens on both ends-
..HHHH........HHHHHHH.......HHHHHHHHHHH........HHHHHHHHHH
HCCCCX....XCCCCCCCX....XCCCCCCCCCCCX....XCCCCCCCCCCH
..HHHH........HHHHHHH.......HHHHHHHHHHH........HHHHHHHHHH
These missing molecules are desperately searching for a bond.
This is referred to as 'unsaturated' hydrocarbons.
The most likely free molecule that fills the place of the missing hydrogen is the abundantly free roaming oxygen molecule. This is referred to as oxidation. Just like metal rusts, so does unsaturated fuel. That's the best case, it can get real ugly if the bond is replaced by a molecule other than oxygen.
This is what is responsible for gumming, shellacking, poor fuel efficiency, unburned fuel, smog and engine damage.
It is a serious issue that has stopped many P2O efforts in their tracks.
More math problems-
Using the SAIC numbers
80% yield per 4000 of plastic = 3200 per hour
75% run time to allow for planned and unplanned system outages = 18 hrs/day run time
3200 of plastic * 18 hours per day run time = 57600 pounds of plastic/day
/9 the number of gal for pound of plastic = 6400 gallons of fuel/day
/31.5 = 203.17 barrels/day
At $90 a barrel = $18285.71
*365 = $6,674,286 per year per reactor
I am led to believe that currently the company is burning $1mill per month in operating cost which = $12mill/year.
If all 3 processors went online at maximum run,
nothing goes wrong,
plastic is free,
a continuous supply of plastic can be shipped, managed and processed with no added overhead,
no added expenditures for more processors, rework, repairs, personnel, legal fees, fuel shipping cost/storage or anything else
the price of oil remains the same
a buyer at $100 a barrel can be consistently secured
In a perfect world based on everything falling exactly into place, I can see that it is possible to break even in a year and possibly turn a profit of $8mill!
So, it will only take 6 years to break even on the $48mill spent so far.
Wonder what the life expectancy of a high temperature reactor is… continuous run for 6 years with no failures, downtime, repair cost, or replacement cost… for 6 years… hmmm
The biggest issue that still needs addressed is the problem with oxidation of synthetic fuel. Just because its in spec doesn’t mean that it’s saturated. When you crack plastic you are breaking the molecular chains, which means that you are missing a hydrogen atom. This makes it prone to oxidation and renders it bad within days of being made.
Ever wonder why they haven’t been running, producing and storing fuel to sell?
Aside from the FREE plastic logistics issue there is a much darker factor at play here that will soon come to light.
In order to stay on topic.... there are several persistent questions that I have read on here about JBI's current state of operations -
1. Why aren’t they running the two existing reactors to full potential?
2. Why aren’t there substantial sales of fuel?
3. Why is JBI spending $1mill per month with perhaps negligible success in 3 yrs?
4. Why do so many people seem to think there are misrepresentations by the co.?
5. Why hasn’t there been substantial environmentally funded support?
6. Why would the company even need to raise money if it has sound technology?
7. Can this be done at $10 a barrel?
I’m sure there are more questions but I think this is a good start.
Next there are some ‘hidden’ points that I believe are relevant even if no one on here really understands the technical process-
1. What do we do about P2O synthetic fuel oxidation?
2. What does a catalyst really do?
3. How much added cost is there when using a catalyst?
4. Why can’t you use all types of plastic since they are all made of hydrocarbons?
5. What are the variables of fuel output based on plastic input variables?
6. Who are the current ‘players’ in the scrap/recycled plastic market?
7. What is the current market price of good useable plastic?
8. Who are the ‘powers that be’ that have motive to prevent this technology & why?
From these points I can tell you that there are a number of substantial factors that weigh heavily against the commercial viability of this company. Couple that with an obvious misguided lust for flamboyant PR and you create a monster. What I mean by that is that an overzealous tinkerer has painted a best case scenario full of false assumptions contrived from generalized impressions of fact. He then prematurely shouted it from the rooftops and developed a base of followers. He himself may have believed his original numbers but if/upon learning that the realistic picture is much different than his far reaching assumptions, it was too late to correct the public’s misguided perception.
This takes me to the most important question that someone has posted-
P2O, concept or business?
I know there is a sentiment of comfort that is fostered in the alleged RockTenn agreement, however, I fail to see how this arrangement makes financial sense.
The problem her is that RockTenn has a well established and long standing profitable recycling operation in place. They deal scrap plastic and strive to maximize profits from it. The obvious problem here is that the exact same types of plastic that JBI needs has a current market in place that pays well for it. If you were RockTenn it simply doesn’t make financial sense to redirect a profitable product in the direction of a less profitable option without at least equal compensation.
This also exposes the original BIG misconception of $10 a barrel based on FREE plastic.
The secondary misconception here is that plastic is free because it goes in landfills by the megatons. This is partially true. Plastic is wasted and ends up in landfills. There is a financially sound reason for this… it is not economically feasible to separate and recover it. I have had lengthy candid discussions with numerous waste management companies and they all agree that there is great value in the plastic going into landfills and that this plastic can fetch $500-$1000 a ton in the scrap plastic market. The problem is that it costs $500-$1000 to separate, sort and grind it. Until there is a financial motivation to do this, it is not going to happen.
Here lies the next significant factor- Government/environmental funding/subsidies for recycling. A few years back there were a number of programs created to promote and encourage recycling. Plastic recycling companies popped up overnight. The recycling of plastic was made financially viable due to these subsidies, but in turn this helped to drive the price of scrap plastic up… over double the pre-recycling initiative price. This hurts JBI in 2 ways… first the price of feedstock is higher, and second, by the initiatives definition, P2O is not considered ‘recycling’.
Let me leave you with two additional points to consider-
1. What do you think the all powerful oil companies position is on this matter… they currently make money supporting the recycling of plastic to make plastic, they lose money if a JBI P2O company makes fuel… they are not about to give an inch unless it benefits them…. In the current state of affairs, it doesn’t. (I know there will be a number of shoot from the hip comments on this, but spend a little time on this first and you will see that there is a cartel like concerted effort at play here… and you really don’t believe for a second that the gov and oil companies really care a bit about the environment or solving the plastic waste problem… do you?).
2. If you have a chicken that lays golden eggs… show me the money, er, I mean… oil.
Thanks Tic for pointing out the 'generous math' point and including the pics. I had one of our shipping staff come up and take a look at the pics and provide a professional opinion, here is what he said-
60 foot trailers are rarely used unless absolutely necessary (long loads of pipe or assembled construction materials) There is an up charge for using long trailers. The typical trailer is only 48 feet long.
The containers pictured appear to be 3'x5'x4' and they are an oddball PITA container because they need to be pin wheeled which means you have to alternate wide then narrow when loading them. They are difficult to stack more than 2 high on the trailer. These issues are not a problem though because they are typically used to transport metal parts and that is the reason that it is not a big deal to waste so much space because when you load metal parts in them it only takes 20 of these containers to reach max weight limits.
I asked him about using them for transporting plastic and he said "We would never ship our scrap plastic that way, it would cost us 30-40% more in freight cost and it is very time consuming to load and unload, we use heavyweight reinforced boxes and bags which are both cheap and easy to handle and there is no need to pay freight charges to get them there and back"
He went on to say that the most that would fit on a trailed is 24 containers and he agreed that the weight of 800lbs is believable if it’s not ground plastic.
SO... you are correct there Tic my math was wrong... the REALITY is that it would take more like 10 deliveries of allegedly 'free' plastic to fill just one tanker!
24x800=19200
Subtract 70% for unusable plastic, gasses, char and you have around 5760lbs
divide this by 9 since that is the average amount of plastic to fuel and you get
640 gallons per trailer delivery of allegedly 'free' plastic
6000/640=9.375
Look, I’m just trying to help you out here.
No one would like to see this work more than I, but I have seen plenty of good ideas go down the tubes because of mismanaged, over reaching, starry eyed ego guys that get caught-up in the fame and money they make when they sell stock and raise tons of money. They find themselves in a situation where they throw money at every problem and piss the rest away with the feeling that is it easy to raise more.
The fundamental problems here are obvious.
As I said, I will explain more as I have time, but the picture of the scrap plastic that was purported to being used was a blatant red flag that needs to be explored. That picture represents the perfect piece of propaganda that perpetuates a terribly false assumption... and that is that the feedstock is free and therefore commercialization is possible at $10 a barrel.
Bullshit!
When doing this as a backyard project or on a small scale, sure,
look, I can pick apples, it’s easy and they are free
ok, let’s start an apple business and sell our free apples for $.10 each... fine from a roadside stand, you can make a few bucks picking the low hanging fruit, but when you get an order for 500,000 apples there become significant overhead costs associated with those 'free' apples. At $.10 each you go out of business.
When you need substantial amounts of feedstock to produce the amount of fuel touted by this company it is not going to be free.
That was just one glaring issue that I had to point out, like it or not the logistics are a killer.
The next point I will discuss is one very near and dear to me, (so I have a professional opinion on it that I can share if you care to hear it) and that is the state of recycled plastic and its market value vs. the misconception of free 'useable' plastic going to landfills.
BTW,
P2O works...
The successful commercialization of P2O has been a sad failure worldwide for 40+ years.
Logistics… the killer is in the details boys
Has anyone bothered to do the simple math?
There was a picture posted a few days back that showed a truck full of bailed plastic and another picture of two tanker trucks.
From my experience I know that the bails, which are not ground plastic, (ground plastic of the desired types weighs in at around 1000lbs for a 4x4x4 container) would weigh, at best around 500lbs (that’s being very generous but lets use that to make the math easier).
So, a typical trailer at 60ft long can hold 60 bails (15 deep x 2 wide x 2 tall). In the picture it seems that they are using 2’ tall bails and only stacking them 3 high, but let’s be more generous and try to help the numbers out here (and hope that they can get a better handle on the situation to improve their shipping cost).
From this we can conclude- that each truck delivers 30,000lbs of plastic.
Now we know that it takes 8-10lbs of plastic to produce a gallon of fuel.
But wait, 10-12% will result in off gasses,
And 2-4% will end up as char,
And unwashed, unsorted (simply not possible, but I will address that in future posts) plastic can contain upwards of 20-50% contamination… but lets be generous and only say 6% so we can again make the math easy to follow.
That means that on average, 11% + 3% + 6% = 20% that will not end up as fuel.
But wait… there’s more…
From the picture (and personal experience) it can clearly be seen that this is mixed plastic (a future post will explore this logistical nightmare more).
From the JBI website we know that they can only use #2, #4, #5 and #7 (highly doubt that #7 is true… more on that later).
Now it is clear that at least half of the plastic is unusable, only 3 of the 9 plastics are usable so it may be much more than 50% and especially since PETE #1 accounts for a large percentage of post consumer waste (soft drinks, sports drinks, water, juice and milk… usually any clear bottle or container) and #9 ABS is one of the most abundantly used plastics for consumer electronics like PCs, TVs, household items and gadgets. Lets not forget the incredibly fast growing trend of bio-plastics which is typically starch or cellulose based and would result in catastrophic consequences (really big boom) if accidently mixed into a catalytic cracking reactor in any substantial amount. Btw it is estimated that the mass majority of consumer plastic will be bio-plastic by the end of this decade… (better hope Johnny boy has a secret catalyst that can take the oxygen out of bio-plastic or the days of P2O are surely numbered)
Read more: Types of Plastic Bottles | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_5505346_types-plastic-bottles.html#ixzz2IjSii3gk
Also any packaging that comes from China (all those clear blister packs that are a pain to open) are so full of nasty fillers that there is no way to run them without fouling things up or producing dangerous and problematic compounds (ever wonder why all that plastic that comes from China never seems to have a recycle number on it).
So now we are down to only 30% of that 30,000lbs that will become fuel to fill the tankers… that means only 9000lbs per truckload. (probably more like 5000lbs)
Therefore; each 6000 gallon tanker requires (being very generous) 6 truckloads of plastic!
If you want to gage output someone should start counting trucks in for delivery.
[Critical side note; If the 2 machines were actually running at full capacity that would require nearly 50 trucks a day. Btw, how big is the delivery bay, the warehouse, the sorting area? How many people are currently working at the plant? Do you realize how much manpower and overhead is required to manage, unload, sort and warehouse 50 truckloads? Tap,tap,tap… is anyone in there?]
This is just the tip of the iceberg… the manpower to extract the useable from the unusable plastic, the space and equipment, and the disposal (shipping and cost) of the unusable plastic and the shear logistics is a considerable amount of seemingly unaccounted overhead.
Oh, that’s not a problem you say… they will just get good sources of free plastic….
Fat chance!
Good, sorted plastic, of the type that is needed is selling for $600-$1000 a ton and the price is increasing every day, the prices have doubled in the last 2 years.
Maybe we should do more math on the overhead cost of useable plastic and extrapolate the profit margin. The $10 per barrel cost assumes FREE plastic with NO overhead.
The logistics are the killer in the details.
There is so much more that you are in the dark about, why do you think the oil companies have sat on many patents pertaining to this for so long? Why is it that P2O was discovered way back when plastic was invented yet the plastics industry has ignored it?
Why aren’t the polymer chemists, the petroleum engineers and the waste management specialists doing this (the people trained in the art with knowledge, experience and expertise) but a lowly data technician comes along with some snake oil and you automatically assume that his fast talking sales pitch is the cure-all. Somehow a guy with no credibility and an obvious negative history is going to school the experts.
One last question to consider-
Why not focus on running just one machine and produce product? If it was logistically and financially sound, why not just let the chicken lay the golden eggs and not raise money to build a chicken farm?
For the savvy investor it is wise to do your homework… otherwise you are not investing YOU ARE GAMBLING! (sad part is you obviously don’t know the rules to the game).
Just heads I win, tales you lose’n