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Job Growth Surges and Markets React! So What’s-Next?
Job Growth Surges … and Markets React! So What’s Next?
Mike Larson | Friday, March 6, 2015 at 4:45 pm
Clearly, it increases the chances of something I’ve been warning about for several months – a “Bloody Wednesday” for the markets.
The Fed simply cannot keep holding interest rates at 0 percent if job growth is ramping higher.
text in full: link
ahimsak: 2070
ahimsak
a very good Call on 2070
ahimsak Wednesday, 03/04/15 01:53:22 PM
Looking for spx 2070 to hold,
Gold
1,164.70 -31.50 (-2.63%)
18:56:02 GMT - Real-time CFD Dat
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
reported on 02/21/15 09:37:50 PM
Gold price trading at critical level – 21 February 2015
FEBRUARY 21, 2015 16:31 BY ESVXM
http://marketchartpattern.com/stocks/gold-price-trading-critical-level-21-february-2015/
SPX intraday support
2119.59-1820.66 (02/02 session low)
0.3236 2072.01 (session low 2072.27 ongoing)
0.3820 2063.42
0.6180 2028.73 enters short term bearish zone
push down a few more points, SPX enters short term neutral zone
my archives
02/28/15 12:41:21 PM
set up your own spreadsheet so that the detail break down can be found using recent low 1820.66 & 1972.56.
02/07/15 01:51:53 PM
> 2069.93 bullish
Apple is joining the Dow effective March 19
link
Wrong-Footed? - Mark S. Young
Mark S. Young Mar 4 2015, 07:45 AM
link
That little rally we had the other day looks like it caught a lot of folks wrong footed.
I'm a bit worried that with so few Bears, things could get ugly. Oddly, there was short covering in the SH yesterday and that isn't what Bulls want to see.
Mark
Mark S. Young Feb 23 2015, 09:59 AM
ITBM Says "Days From a Top"
link
Insight China (11) Pilot factory, Preparing for Industrie-4.0
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
The first industrial revolution
was the mechanization of production using water and steam power,
second industrial revolution
which introduced mass production with the help of electric power
Third Industrial Revolution
the use of electronics and IT to further automate production.
fourth industrial revolution. still a vision
The term "Industrie 4.0" originates from a project in the high-tech strategy of the German government, which promotes the computerization of the manufacturing industry. It refers to the fourth industrial revolution. INDUSTRIE 4.0 connects embedded system production technologies and smart production processes to pave the way to a new technological age
Industrie 4.0 - The Fourth Industrial Revolution
YouTube ( 6mins 34sec)
02/28 DJI has met an important upper target
my archives
Friday, 12/05/14 04:41:21 PM link
Charts depict the FIB relationship that the middle point between Oct/11 low to Dec/14 high (as of 12/05) is almost to the exact peak in Oct/07. Therefore, i am ‘convinced’ the apex is around the corner (with + 1~2% overrun),
DJI http://www.chartupload.com/images/04182133367648669401.jpg
SPX http://www.chartupload.com/images/26163504060383682835.jpg
Monday, 12/08/14 02:19:23 PM link
SPX
2079.76 2104.27
2069.93 2085.06 2100.20 2115.20 2130.46
DJI
18062 18657
17975 18103 18230 18357 18485
02/28/15 weekend misc.
Used in, with minor updates
(1) Market Trend Charts – overall link
- Moving averages – bullish
- The McClellan Oscillator – bearish, readings below zero. link
(2) SPX Short term boundary
< 2033 bearish, (0.618 2130.46-1972.56)
> 2070 bullish
(3) Upper rail
The next obvious major cluster is 2213.50. imho: To be bullish for long term, the serious test remains in between 2069.93 and 2130.46. On 11/21/2014, SPX marked an intraday high 2071.46, that was the first assault on lower rail 2069.93; Since then, Bulls have spent full 14 weeks on assaulting this zone without a successful Punching Through. This is a tough zone for testing Bull’s strength. on 02/24, i reported the final ‘road block’ in this zone is 2120-2130, on 02/25, the best ‘score’ Bull made was 2119.59.
(a) SPX chart
2120, 2130.46, [2213.50]
2132.50, 2170.28, 2195.73, [2231.36]
[2213.50- 2231.36, low odds before a meaningful pullback]
(b) DJI
18657
18230 18357 18485
(4) SPX Short term Lower rail
2038, 1981-1972 (reference frame 2130.46- 1737.92),
set up your own spreadsheet so that the detail break down can be found using recent low 1820.66 & 1972.56.
Re: jumanji0881 DJI 39K anyone ?
Based on Analyst Estimates for each DOW component,
for example Visa http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=v&ql=1
and each component weight for all DOW 30 family (
Index Component Weights of Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average )
http://indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html
for the next fiscal year, the overall Revenue growth is 5.21%, and assume all parameters remain constants. So, DOW 30 will be 18132 * 1.0521 = 19076. that says, at these growth rate, how many years to reach 38,820?
DOW 38,820 projection depends on a Super Boom, imho, the Super Boom depends on Geoeconomics conditions, which in turns, depends on all Super Boom required "contemporary geopolitics" conditions. The historian E.H. Carr asserted history was a series of causal chains interacting with each other. What is the ingredients for Super Boom? Intuitively, We may get hints from the geopolitics relationship among the "key players" on the stage con-currently.
02/24/15 DJI
after two months, DJI hits another target 18230, session high 18231.09
The next target is 18357.
One E-woofer is calling DJI 20,000, WoooWo Boo Hoo
JK Saturday, 02/21/15 01:07:11 AM
André Tiedje Freitag, 20.02.2015 - 16:52 Uhr
link
“The Dow Jones index is in a stable upward movement with a target at 20,000.00 points. Only a price drop at 17,037.00 points could prevent direct achievement of the target brand.“
The Dow as we Approach 2015.75
Posted on February 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
link
The resistance is still in the 18500-18600 area for now.
My archive
Monday, 12/08/14 02:19:23 PM
DJI
18062 18657
17975 18103 18230 18357 18485
Monday, 09/15/14 11:57:44 PM
http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
As the chart illustrated: may be in between 18062-18485.
Tuesday, 04/01/14 03:30:30 PM
Here is the possible DJI high target zone:
The range is 16719.24 - (16810.54) –17150.25
http://forexrainbow.com/images/72900777363167492412.jpg
cash preservation
i am a retiree, top rule: capital preservation.
need to reduce the exposure. 'expect' SPX upper swing 2120-2130, any day now... who knows when there is a big gap down day.
Exit 4 longs
I sold PFE GSK last week, Today I sold JNJ (+ DIV) and XLU (EXIT DIV on Feb/20?).
XLU Exit DIV date http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/xlu/dividend-history
imho, The Reward:Risk is deteriorating on long side.
The Fed thinks some stocks still look awfully-expensive
The Fed thinks some stocks still look awfully expensive
MYLES UDLAND 15 MINUTES AGO
Along with this testimony the Fed also releases a detailed assessment of financial conditions, and in its assessment, the Fed said that some stocks look a little bit pricey.
link
Chair Janet L. Yellen Semiannual Monetary Policy Report
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20150224a.htm
Chair Janet L. Yellen
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
February 24, 2015
Chairman Shelby, Ranking Member Brown, and members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. In my remarks today, I will discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy.
Current Economic Situation and Outlook
Since my appearance before this Committee last July, the employment situation in the United States has been improving along many dimensions. The unemployment rate now stands at 5.7 percent, down from just over 6 percent last summer and from 10 percent at its peak in late 2009. The average pace of monthly job gains picked up from about 240,000 per month during the first half of last year to 280,000 per month during the second half, and employment rose 260,000 in January. In addition, long-term unemployment has declined substantially, fewer workers are reporting that they can find only part-time work when they would prefer full-time employment, and the pace of quits--often regarded as a barometer of worker confidence in labor market opportunities--has recovered nearly to its pre-recession level. However, the labor force participation rate is lower than most estimates of its trend, and wage growth remains sluggish, suggesting that some cyclical weakness persists. In short, considerable progress has been achieved in the recovery of the labor market, though room for further improvement remains.
At the same time that the labor market situation has improved, domestic spending and production have been increasing at a solid rate. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is now estimated to have increased at a 3-3/4 percent annual rate during the second half of last year. While GDP growth is not anticipated to be sustained at that pace, it is expected to be strong enough to result in a further gradual decline in the unemployment rate. Consumer spending has been lifted by the improvement in the labor market as well as by the increase in household purchasing power resulting from the sharp drop in oil prices. However, housing construction continues to lag; activity remains well below levels we judge could be supported in the longer run by population growth and the likely rate of household formation.
Despite the overall improvement in the U.S. economy and the U.S. economic outlook, longer-term interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies have moved down significantly since the middle of last year; the declines have reflected, at least in part, disappointing foreign growth and changes in monetary policy abroad. Another notable development has been the plunge in oil prices. The bulk of this decline appears to reflect increased global supply rather than weaker global demand. While the drop in oil prices will have negative effects on energy producers and will probably result in job losses in this sector, causing hardship for affected workers and their families, it will likely be a significant overall plus, on net, for our economy. Primarily, that boost will arise from U.S. households having the wherewithal to increase their spending on other goods and services as they spend less on gasoline.
Foreign economic developments, however, could pose risks to the outlook for U.S. economic growth. Although the pace of growth abroad appears to have stepped up slightly in the second half of last year, foreign economies are confronting a number of challenges that could restrain economic activity. In China, economic growth could slow more than anticipated as policymakers address financial vulnerabilities and manage the desired transition to less reliance on exports and investment as sources of growth. In the euro area, recovery remains slow, and inflation has fallen to very low levels; although highly accommodative monetary policy should help boost economic growth and inflation there, downside risks to economic activity in the region remain. The uncertainty surrounding the foreign outlook, however, does not exclusively reflect downside risks. We could see economic activity respond to the policy stimulus now being provided by foreign central banks more strongly than we currently anticipate, and the recent decline in world oil prices could boost overall global economic growth more than we expect.
U.S. inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent objective. In large part, the recent softness in the all-items measure of inflation for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reflects the drop in oil prices. Indeed, the PCE price index edged down during the fourth quarter of last year and looks to be on track to register a more significant decline this quarter because of falling consumer energy prices. But core PCE inflation has also slowed since last summer, in part reflecting declines in the prices of many imported items and perhaps also some pass-through of lower energy costs into core consumer prices.
Despite the very low recent readings on actual inflation, inflation expectations as measured in a range of surveys of households and professional forecasters have thus far remained stable. However, inflation compensation, as calculated from the yields of real and nominal Treasury securities, has declined. As best we can tell, the fall in inflation compensation mainly reflects factors other than a reduction in longer-term inflation expectations. The Committee expects inflation to decline further in the near term before rising gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate, but we will continue to monitor inflation developments closely.
Monetary Policy
I will now turn to monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is committed to policies that promote maximum employment and price stability, consistent with our mandate from the Congress. As my description of economic developments indicated, our economy has made important progress toward the objective of maximum employment, reflecting in part support from the highly accommodative stance of monetary policy in recent years. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the substantial improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions--the stated objective of the Committee's recent asset purchase program--the FOMC concluded that program at the end of October.
Even so, the Committee judges that a high degree of policy accommodation remains appropriate to foster further improvement in labor market conditions and to promote a return of inflation toward 2 percent over the medium term. Accordingly, the FOMC has continued to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and to keep the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current elevated level to help maintain accommodative financial conditions. The FOMC is also providing forward guidance that offers information about our policy outlook and expectations for the future path of the federal funds rate. In that regard, the Committee judged, in December and January, that it can be patient in beginning to raise the federal funds rate. This judgment reflects the fact that inflation continues to run well below the Committee's 2 percent objective, and that room for sustainable improvements in labor market conditions still remains.
The FOMC's assessment that it can be patient in beginning to normalize policy means that the Committee considers it unlikely that economic conditions will warrant an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate for at least the next couple of FOMC meetings. If economic conditions continue to improve, as the Committee anticipates, the Committee will at some point begin considering an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Before then, the Committee will change its forward guidance. However, it is important to emphasize that a modification of the forward guidance should not be read as indicating that the Committee will necessarily increase the target range in a couple of meetings. Instead the modification should be understood as reflecting the Committee's judgment that conditions have improved to the point where it will soon be the case that a change in the target range could be warranted at any meeting. Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of incoming data, the Committee is reasonably confident that inflation will move back over the medium term toward our 2 percent objective.
It continues to be the FOMC's assessment that even after employment and inflation are near levels consistent with our dual mandate, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. It is possible, for example, that it may be necessary for the federal funds rate to run temporarily below its normal longer-run level because the residual effects of the financial crisis may continue to weigh on economic activity. As such factors continue to dissipate, we would expect the federal funds rate to move toward its longer-run normal level. In response to unforeseen developments, the Committee will adjust the target range for the federal funds rate to best promote the achievement of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.
Policy Normalization
Let me now turn to the mechanics of how we intend to normalize the stance and conduct of monetary policy when a decision is eventually made to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. Last September, the FOMC issued its statement on Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. This statement provides information about the Committee's likely approach to raising short-term interest rates and reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings. As is always the case in setting policy, the Committee will determine the timing and pace of policy normalization so as to promote its statutory mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability.
The FOMC intends to adjust the stance of monetary policy during normalization primarily by changing its target range for the federal funds rate and not by actively managing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. The Committee is confident that it has the tools it needs to raise short-term interest rates when it becomes appropriate to do so and to maintain reasonable control of the level of short-term interest rates as policy continues to firm thereafter, even though the level of reserves held by depository institutions is likely to diminish only gradually. The primary means of raising the federal funds rate will be to increase the rate of interest paid on excess reserves. The Committee also will use an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility and other supplementary tools as needed to help control the federal funds rate. As economic and financial conditions evolve, the Committee will phase out these supplementary tools when they are no longer needed.
The Committee intends to reduce its securities holdings in a gradual and predictable manner primarily by ceasing to reinvest repayments of principal from securities held by the Federal Reserve. It is the Committee's intention to hold, in the longer run, no more securities than necessary for the efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy, and that these securities be primarily Treasury securities.
Summary
In sum, since the July 2014 Monetary Policy Report, there has been important progress toward the FOMC's objective of maximum employment. However, despite this improvement, too many Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, wage growth is still sluggish, and inflation remains well below our longer-run objective. As always, the Federal Reserve remains committed to employing its tools to best promote the attainment of its objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions.
(Re: jonnytrade) The Dow as we Approach-2015.75
jonnytrade Monday, 02/23/15 06:34:23 PM.
... I understand its for amusement only .
The Dow as we Approach 2015.75
Posted on February 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
An excerpt:
QUESTION: Hi Marty,
Thanks for all the insights as always. Just one thing confusing me – as of October 2015, when the ECM (Economic Confidence Model) turns down, what happens to the markets?
ANSWER:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/
ITBM Says "Days From a Top"
FYI
ITBM Says "Days From a Top"
Mark S. Young Today, 09:59 AM
link
GOLDMAN: Sell Boeing
Boeing
Market Cap: 108.84B, P/E (ttm): 20.94
EPS (ttm): 7.38, Div : 3.64
GOLDMAN: Sell Boeing
FEB. 23, 2015, 9:04 AM
link
Cat theory
re: Market Prescience - How Devine!
Good article, Thank You!
In essence: "Whether a cat is brown or white makes no difference. As long as it catches mice, it is a good cat." - Deng Xiaoping (1904-1997).
E-waver Tony’s bullish numbers explained
weekend update
Anthony Caldaro Posted on February 21, 2015
link
When Primary III does conclude we should see a steep correction for Primary IV, then another advance to new highs for Primary V. This suggests this bull market still has a ways to go in time and price.
As promised we are now posting our next long term target for this bull market: SPX 2530 to SPX 2630 by Q1/Q2 2016. This target will be posted on the SPX weekly chart, like the ones in the past that have been achieved.
We were counting the impulsive advance from the recent SPX 2042 low as it unfolded. there are three possible ways of counting this pattern. ... ... The first possibility suggests the maximum this uptrend could reach is SPX 2145.
(Tony’s original chart)
dindindon Friday, 01/30/15 11:12:30 PM
'A few' E-woofers say SPX is in wave 3, after down wave 4, we will see blah blah blah ATH wave 5. This melody has been out there for quite a while, very ‘loud’. Let me 'jinx' it, How about a wave 5 Truncation?
Basic Tenets of the Elliott Wave Principle
A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in the following figure
Truncation gives warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market. In application, a truncated fifth wave will often cut short an expected target.
http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm
[TA Ref] Gold price trading at critical level
Gold price trading at critical level – 21 February 2015
FEBRUARY 21, 2015 16:31 BY ESVXM
link
02/21/15 weekend misc.
Market Trend: Bullish link
(1) Positions: Long
(2) SPX Short term boundary
< 2033 bearish, (0.618 2130.46-1972.56)
> 2070 bullish
On 02/12, Index closed above 2070; The serious test remains in between 2070 and 2133. The next obvious major cluster is 2213.50.
(3) Upper/Lower rail
SPX (Feb 20, ATH 2110.67)
2115.20 2130.46 [2213.50]
2132.50 2170.28 2195.73 [2231.36]
[2213.50, 2231.36, low odds before a meaningful pullback]
DJI (Feb 20, ATH 18144.29)
18657
18230 18357 18485
SPX Short term Lower rail
2038 1981-1972
(4) E-wavers’ projections (for FYI, FWIW)
weekend update
Anthony Caldaro Posted on February 21, 2015
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/02/21/weekend-update-488/
As promised we are now posting our next long term target for this bull market: SPX 2530 to SPX 2630 by Q1/Q2 2016.
Can the S&P 500 see 2250 by May?
By Avi Gilburt, Published: Feb 17, 2015 12:56 p.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-the-sp-500-see-2250-by-may-2015-02-17
The market has an immediate setup to take us to 2150 within the next two weeks. ...with 2250 being seen as early as mid-March, but, more ideally, around May.
Is the S&P 500 ready to break out to 2200?
By Avi Gilburt, Published: Jan 12, 2015 3:18 p.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-sp-500-ready-to-break-out-to-2200-2015-01-12?link=MW_TD
There is a setup to take us to 2220 by the end of January.
Are stocks really in a bubble of trouble?
By Avi Gilburt, Published: Jan 6, 2015 12:25 p.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-stocks-really-in-a-bubble-of-trouble-2015-01-06?link=MW_TD
Many have asked me how I can possibly come up with a target as high as 2500 in the S&P 500 so far out in time. Well, for those who study our Fibonacci Pinball method, you will know it is simply a matter of probability and math.
[removed by poster (off topic)][EOM]
2102 is a FIB cluster
- ATH 2102.13
- 2102 is a FIB cluster
- intraday low 2085.44, ongoing
02/15/15 06:44:57 PM
SPX resistance/upper rail targets (1-4 weeks)
Based on long term/short term retracements and wave extensions.
2088.11 2101.96 2132.50 2170.28
2079.76 2092.02 2104.27
2069.93 2085.06 2100.20 2115.33 2130.46
FYI - Larry Edelson: No Way Has Gold Bottomed!
FYI FWIW
No Way Has Gold Bottomed!
Larry Edelson | Wednesday, February 18, 2015 at 7:30 am
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/no-way-gold-bottomed-69892
Greek debt talks with euro zone break down
Greek debt talks with euro zone break down, way forward uncertain
BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND JAN STRUPCZEWSKI
BRUSSELS Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:27pm EST
link
Four Dangerous Paths: Wargaming The Greek Crisis From A Global Investment Perspective
By: Daniel Amerman | Thu, Feb 12, 2015
link
02/15/15 Summary
SPX General description
(a) active zone 2069.93- 2130.46.
On 11/21/2014, SPX marked an intraday high 2071.46, that was the first assault on lower rail 2069.93; Since then, Bulls have spent full 12 weeks on assaulting this zone without a successful Punching Through. This is a tough zone for testing Bull’s strength.
(b) major clusters are 1944.65, 2047.41, 2130,46, 2213.50, 2316.26
(c) boundary
< 2018.78 bearish
> 2069.93 bullish
Two timing windows
(a) an important low could be around middle of February (01/29/15 10:25:14 AM )
(b) middle April (polarity unknown). according to Eric S Hadik: April 2015 = Key to Potential for 1-2 Year Bear Market http://www.consensus-inc.net/category/contributor/insiide-track-trading
on cycle projection: i got February’s polarity wrong, have no handle on cycle projection, Wrong more often than Correct. From now on, i keep my mouth shut
SPX supports (1-4 weeks)
2067.66-2070.14
2049.48-2051.51
2020.11-2018.82
SPX resistance/upper rail targets (1-4 weeks)
Based on long term/short term retracements and wave extensions.
2088.11 2101.96 2132.50 2170.28
2079.76 2092.02 2104.27
2069.93 2085.06 2100.20 2115.33 2130.46
Archives
Friday, 12/05/14 12:14:50 PM
DJI http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
18062 18657
17975 18103 18230 18357 18485
Thursday, 12/04/14 03:10:04 PM
SPX http://www.chartupload.com/images/99280192870917928554.jpg
2079.76 2104.27
2069.93 2085.06 2100.20 2115.33 2130.46
Sunday, 11/23/14 01:28:34 PM
SPX http://www.chartupload.com/images/99280192870917928554.jpg
(1) 2079.76 A gauge to see 2100-2130
(2) 2130.46 Middle term upper target
Time stamp February 15, 2015, 4:18:57 PM by http://forexrainbow.com
>>(ahimsak) Want to quit this game for good
ahimsak Thursday, 02/12/15 11:07:55 PM
.... Want to quit this game for good. ........ Last, no bears around anymore, they have been beaten by the CB's, ......
Anthony Caldaro weekend update
Posted on February 14, 2015
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/02/14/weekend-update-487/
this has not been just any normal market. It has been a market driven by central bank liquidity in an attempt to avoid the deflationary effects of a Saeculum crisis cycle. Or, as most like to call it a deflationary Secular cycle. As a result we are expecting Major wave 5 to advance well beyond the one to one relationship to Major wave 1. However, we are not quite ready to post a potential price/time target until the DOW makes all time new highs. ....... Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.
dindindon Saturday, 02/08/14 12:24:01 PM
This post together with prior posts present a simple way to obtain a rough pictorial picture. it is not intend to nail precise pivots. IMHO. Projection is only a small step for gaining profit from the market and usually it is the lesser important one.
You also can find some “popular” numbers such as 1880, 1860, 1944, 2213 .. etc, These are just the wave Fibonacci extensions,
bighouse1006 Feb 13 2015, 05:12 PM
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?&showtopic=158774
dindindon
Tuesday, 05/06/14 12:05:47 PM
'Beware-Experts-Bearing-Predictions' & 'Measuring-Traders-Performance'
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=101605550
The main purpose is to study traders’ short term trading performance. This report was based on total 12 stock picking contests result and total 1028 participants’ score board.
In essence: after sufficient number of attempts (trades), the lump sum odd to profit from short term trades is no better than 50%
total participants 1028
beating the market 484 (47.1%)
Thus his style
after read his posts for a few years, thus his style.
- direction/timing is important,
- pick up the Fib ratio at your own "preferences".
NAV Feb 9 2015, 06:58 PM'
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=158691&st=0&p=716910entry716910
200 points drop in 3 days ? Seen more ridiculous stuff on this board !
Lysis Feb 9 2015, 08:00 PM
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=158691&st=0&p=716911entry716911
He actually gets the direction right frequently, but, I agree, his targets are usually way off.
Keep up the good work, Blustar.
02/12/15 SPX
Pendulum shifts to bull side momentarily, deploys a seemingly bullish stance. In fact, the strength is lagging behind the schedule (see quote of Avi Gilburt). Cyclists, for example, this one reiterates his bearish call.
archives
02/07/15 01:51:53 PM 01/17/15 04:53:59 PM
Reversal
< 2018.78 to resume the decline.
> 2069.93 bullish
The next obvious major cluster is 2213.50. imho: To be bullish for long term, the serious test remains in between 2069.93 and 2130.46.
Thursday, 12/04/14 03:10:04 PM
link
Pivots/Resistance realization
666.79 1370.58 1474.77
1.414 2069.93 = 1474.77 + (1370.58-666.79) * 1.414
1.500 2130.46
1.618 2213.50
2130.46 (100%) – 2069.93 (0%) = 60.53
2085.06 25% ( 2069.93 + 60.53 * 0.25)
2100.20 50%
2115.33 75%
2130.46 100%
Sunday, 11/23/14 01:28:34 PM
link
(1) 2079.76 A gauge to see 2100-2130
(2) 2130.46 Middle term upper target
http://www.chartupload.com/images/99280192870917928554.jpg
Is the S&P 500 ready to break out to 2200?
By Avi Gilburt Published: Jan 12, 2015 3:18 p.m. ET
link
there is a setup to take us to 2220 by the end of January.
>> Where is everybody?
flexes their muscles,
wait for Blood Draw for Integrity Test
Minsk Stress Test Lab.
cartoon source: http://www.guancha.cn/yangyunfei/2015_02_10_309103.shtml
02/11/15 Gold
No love on gold,
initial support is barely above 1200 big mark, center 1210+/-. the next Low may be around Feb/March, (no target number at this moment, depends on the result of testing 1210), and another low .. (refer to the following chart, highly speculative, check the cycle length, do your own DD)
Use this link for other reference.
chart date 02/09
Richard Fisher: 'audit-the-Fed' backers are 'sheep-in-wolves'-clothing'
Dallas Fed president: Politicians that want to audit the Fed are 'sheep in wolves clothing'
He said he believes the movement led by Paul (R-Ky.) to enact legislation allowing audits of the Fed's monetary policy decisions is an attempt to cover up for lawmakers' failings on economic policy.
link
TBT - closed (EOM)
Credit Suisse just downgraded stocks
Credit Suisse just downgraded stocks
MYLES UDLAND
FEB. 10, 2015, 8:59 AM
Garthwaite took his mid-year and year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 down to 2,100 and 2,150, respectively. .. ... In his note, Garthwaite highlights four near-term red flags ... ...
Read more:
http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-suisse-cuts-sp-500-targets-2015-2
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
10 Year Coupon 2.2500 2.00% 11:58:34
30 Year Coupon 3.0000 2.59% 12:24:53
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
Wednesday, 02/04/15 12:06:37 PM
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
chart TLT
TLT & SPX
can we have a reversal in bonds and expect a fall in stocks?
bluechip231 Friday, 02/06/15 07:31:53 PM
Strong weekly candle in TBF. There is one question, can bonds fall with stocks? I once believed there was an inverse relationship, but we did not see that in 2014 as both stocks and bonds rose.
In theory, can we have a reversal in bonds and expect a fall in stocks?