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Elmer Phud,
The Intel-AMD cycle almost at times seems to be a natural phenomenon
Except that there is nothing "natural" about it. It is in fact, artificial, and to believe that this cycle continues as the stakes get higher for Intel and AMD is shortsighted. We are on the verge of this cycle breaking, perhaps forever. Place your bets, as this may be the last hand.
IMHO
Elmer Phud,
What is holding AMD's share price up?
My guess? From PO, "As time passes, as we extend those products into the product stack, we think we have more than just price to compete on."
This sentence may imply that, going forward, Intel will move away from participating in a price war. Therefore, AMD faithfull may interpret that as Intel will let AMD "off the hook". I dont think they will. Intel knows that it is their strong product line that is causing AMD to bleed, not any pre-planned pricing strategy, and Intel's superior product line will only get stronger.
IMHO
smooth2o,
I surmise that the analysts get the same babble that you hear from Ruiz...maybe they believe it.
I think that what analysts say in public and what they say to their best clients in private are two different things. Telling their best clients to sell AMD while issuing "positive" views of the company, though unfair or even illegal, is not out of the question.
IMHO
wbmw,
To be off by 25% on the top line is pretty bad forecasting. Given that AMD was expected to lose $0.30 per share on the higher estimate (the release did not update EPS guidance), God only knows (management probably doesn’t) how bad the earnings will turn out.
This puts a rumored Private Equity buyout of AMD in new light. Considering that management with years of experience in the business and access to the latest data can misread the business, how is a PE led management team (you figure the current "clueless" management team will be dismissed) going to do much better? Clearly, if a PE buyout of AMD occurs, it will have little hope of taking on and winning against Intel in the technology area. Rather the new owners will be figuring out how to carve out the AMD parts and make a quick profit that way. A joint venture is also possible but this is risky considering AMD has yet to digest ATI, and that will amount to a three way union of sorts.
I dont think that anyone will come to AMD's rescue, at this stage of the game. There is already a lot of vested interest in them from Germany and other institutions. More likely, AMD will limp through the next couple of quarters, issue more stock, raise the hopes of new investors, put there best face on the Barcelon launch, hype there future synergies with ATI and simply hope for the best. Hope of Intel screwing up. Hope of winning the lawsuit. Hope that OEM's will forego their self interest and profits to support a duopoly. Hope that time and money does not run out. Hope, hope, hope.
IMHO
Tenchu,
As for Intel, I'd love to see them taunt AMD a little. Maybe precede a "Multiply" ad with a picture of two clumsy male dancers dressed in green, along with the caption, "Some guys just can't keep up."
That would be funny. I like it. Hope Intel dishes it out, the right way.
IMHO
Golfbum,
amd dug a *much* deeper hole to jump into this time around.
but i've been astounded in the past by their ability to raise cash.
True and true. You can't go to the same well forever. Beyond the metaphors, the business of design, development, and manufacture of CPU's is getting harder and harder and the investments are larger and larger. All of this leads to the conclusion that at some time in the near future, the status quo and the existing competitive landscape in the CPU industry is due for significant changes. Don't know about AMD, the company, but AMD's track record with its shareholders suggest that it is they who will get fleeced. Again.
IMHO
Saturn V,
Now its options are more limited and does need fresh funding, most likely equity funding
Any guess where these (i.e. Private Equity) funds will come from? With a strong Euro and AMD's German/European affiliation, I think they are targetting foreign investors of some kind. What is certain is that AMD's efforts in obtaining funds is getting harder and harder, contrary to what Ruiz or anyone else at AMD will like us to think.
IMHO
Sarmad,
The key sentence from the article is this Put altogether, it is an impressive technology package
Is it possible that the "device" the editors analyzed was a non-working device, "put together" to showcase the impressive technology AMD intended to have, but one that fell short of expectations when it came time to ship the product for revenue? Is it possible to make a device and abandon a key feature such as strained silicon in effort to get it to market, or is such a switch not practical or possible?
Just speculating here, since I do not have expertise to answer some of these questions.
IMHO
Elmer Phud,
when AMD thought Intel was going to screwup forever
Not only that, but it is now clear that Intel's mistake was a strategic one, not one of technical incompetence. Even with Intel following the wrong path with Netburst, their technological leadership and excellence never waned. In fact it got better. Today, with the convergence of their strategy and their technological prowess, they are primed for some heavy "hammering" of the competition. How long before it results in stock appreciation is the key question.
IMHO
wbmw,
After all, the recipient of the sent files would have presumably received their mail.
That is the key to this whole issue and points to the absurdity of AMD's accusations. AMD's case against Intel implies an external party being "forced" against it's will. So, all AMD has to do is scour the recipients email for messages from Intel's high management implicating Intel. Instead AMD makes this into a public spectacle, they make a mountain out of a mole hill, they will probably find themselves guilty of same "crime" and they look like a bunch of fools in the process. Yep, that works.
IMHO
mas,
The only winners out of this lose-lose game have been the customers
That's right. And the customers have Intel to thank. Yet AMD and Ruiz have the gall to continuously mention "customer focus" and "we put the customer first" and "we give what the customer wants" BS.
IMHO
Tiger64,
Its amazing that you say free market...
Well, what do you call it? What is your definition of the market? Will you share your AMD wealth with me?
IMHO
Grrr,
Ofcourse not up to the point that Intel drives AMD out of the market. We need to have a nice duopoly established first, with two healthy players.
Need? need?
Sorry but I cant help but give a somewhat sarcastic response. After you make a couple of million with AMD stock, can you send me a million of that? Because I need a million dollars. Call it our own little "artificial" duopoly.
Silly as it seems, we are operating under a free market economy. Anyone who intends to artificially create and tamper with that, will find it very unprofitable or worse. If a duopoly will happen, it will happen because AMD and its products are worthy of sharing the stage with Intel's. Thus far, some of these products (Quadfather anyone?) are being laughed off stage and the future looks bleek. I am not saying a duopoly can't happen, but rather it must happen naturally.
But that may be just my little fantasy ;)
No, not a fantasy. Just not giving the forces of a free market economy enough consideration.
IMHO
tecate,
re: The Dell class action lawsuit.
While I doubt that AMD is directly behind this, I am starting to wonder if their PR department is a strong promoter of this "news", considering the relatively large amount of press it seems to be getting. No harm in that from AMD's point of view.
I wonder what affect it is having on Dell? Oh yeah, they will "complete their dual processor supplier strategy". Wonder if this means AMD CPU quotas are decreasing or increasing do to this Dell "smear" campaign?
IMHO
justaview,
re: Penryn issues? but as we all know it doesn't rule out late surprises that were not apparent at the device level and only surfaced in A0 silicon.
Maybe. We can only guess (wish if one is an AMD fan). On the other hand, the same may happen to Barcelona. So where does this speculation leave us? Back to square 1?
IMHO
kpf,
Anyway, the chap not only knows a thing or two, but knows almost everybody in the industry. So it would be safe to assume Mary's remark has a credible source.
When it comes to industry sources, there are no more sought after and "in the know" sources, than the CEO's of a company. Yet if your source was Hector Ruiz on Dec 14 2006, your source into AMD's 4th quarter would have been laughingly out of touch. Consequently, there is no such thing as a "safe" and "credible" source. All sources are subject to reality at best, and ulterior motives, at worse. In this case, the sources you favor seem to be out of touch with reality. But hey, your sources are as good as any. Dig?
IMHO
mas,
clovertown vs 4s Opteron
From the conclusion:
But a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, so until AMD's quad core Opteron actually ships, Intel has the most attractive dual socket platform
;))
IMHO
smooth2o
OK, I give up, you're right. Quoting scriptures is what AMD needs to do.... pray.
;))
Thanks for the laugh.
IMHO
smooth2o,
This must say something about Barcelona...and AMD's 65nm process...
Perhaps. I also think the lawsuit is playing a role here. Dell, for example, would look foolish in front of a judge trying to explain why they would not use AMD processors during a time when they were the better product. They eventually did. Now, SUN would look equally foolish if they did not use Intel products when such products are better. As an added benefit, both cases strengthen Intel's argument that winning products win over customers.
BTW, If the alleged problems with Barcelona and 65nm process are true, then AMD has taken a major step backward in it's reputation as a viable CPU supplier. If.
IMHO
spaarky,
60%+ GMs were the exception anyway. I believe Intel's GMs have averaged somewhere in the mid-50%s for the last 15 years
That is the way I remember them also.
IMHO
chipguy,
I get the distinct impression that Intel management has
decided that having AMD around as a useful sock puppet
to point out to FTC/DOJ no longer outweighs its ability
to affect pricing and margins as the PC market matures
and sales growth slows down.
Totally agree. The stakes are way higher now than in years past. AMD has made it clear that having 20% or less of the market leads to futility and it can't control its own destiny at these share levels. It also seems to me that there is no way Intel can keep its current corporate structure and size by ceding to much above 30%. Something has got to give. There is no comfortable ground that both companies can share and be happy with. The lawsuit highlited this predicament.
IMHO
sgolds,
Seems to me that an alternative strategy for Intel would be to take advantage of good product by raising prices and generating obscene profits
It seems to me that anyone who subscribes to what you are saying is either an AMD stockholder, AMD sympathizer, or Intel hater. No Intel stockholder or fan would argue with Intel's strategy unless they also own/favor AMD in which case the idea of gouging customers by collusion is "the right thing to do".
IMHO
Sarmad,
the response to the analyst day fiasco was amazing. Only morons could buy on that obviously misleading happy talk. And they did.
So do these morons still buy AMD's expectations that they "will grow at twice the market" for 2007, in light of how accurate their expectations about the quarter changed from Dec 14 to Jan 11?
We find out tomorrow. My guess is NO, because there are "interests" other than telling the truth on Wall Street.
IMHO
RGood,
most AMD fans are jumping up/dwn about 2006. They had better be watching out for 2007
AMD warned? Hmmmm, you RGood.
BTW,
I think Dell is going to swallow some of their pride as well
I recall that in the 386/486 days Dell did sell PC's with AMD CPU's only to get burned. It was at that time M. Dell said he would never use AMD again. Never say never.
IMHO
wbmw,
V8 is a funny name for their response to AMD's Quad FX.
Assuming it is an accurate description to say Intel is responding to AMD's Quad FX, then I think this is another example of Intel's strategy in dealing with AMD. If there is one lesson Intel should have learned from the past few years, it is that Intel should not be the judge of the value of AMD's product line, but instead should just try to "trump" whatever it is. I mean, if AMD comes out with what turns out to be garbage, Intel could certainly afford to create better garbage, sort of speak. You never know what a market wants. And as the saying goes, one persons garbage is another persons... Of course, Intel should do what it thinks is the very best product in parallel, assuming again, that they can afford to do this. As long as they trump AMD's products, Intel will always stay ahead.
The same thing is happening with AMD's fusion product. In the past, Intel may have bet the wrong way, and ignored AMD's direction. Not anymore, it looks like. Almost immediately Intel started to staff up to what will be a team that should compete and maybe even beat the AMD-ATI fusion product.
If this "is" Intel's approach, it seems like a good one.
IMHO
chipguy,
Intel downgraded at Credit Suisse, share slip in pre-open..."We believe..." Analyst Michael Masdea said in a research note.
Micky also upgraded Spansion and raised their target to $18. So what does Spansion do????????
Spansion Drops 4Q Sales Outlook .. AP (Fri 9:06am)
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070105/spansion_outlook.html?.v=1
Spansion Warns on Delay .. at TheStreet.com (Fri 8:34am
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsana.." target="_blank">http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/tsmfe/SIG=1263c89ms/*http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsana....
Down 5% !
Spansion SPSN Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform $18
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/UpgradesDowngrades.htm
"Even as Intel loses share"?
Just say no to drugs.
The dude just OD'd ;))
IMHO
Chipguy,
AMD borrows a heap more money.
"AN SEC FILING by AMD on the 28th of December last showed that it borrowed $247,00,555.34 under its existing €700,000,000 loan agreement made in April 2004."
According to a poster on SI, the ability to borrow this amount was contingent on AMD achieving certain milestones. Obviously AMD's "successful" (cough) launch of their 65nm processor must have been one of these milestones. Snippet from the April 2004 filing seems to confirm these contingencies.
In addition to support from us, the consortium of banks referred to above will make available up to $848 million in loans to AMD Fab 36 KG upon its achievement of specified milestones, including attainment of “technical completion” at Fab 36, which requires certification by the banks’ technical advisor that AMD Fab 36 KG has a wafer fabrication process suitable for high volume production of advanced microprocessors and has achieved specified levels of average wafer starts per week and average wafer yields at Fab 36, as well as cumulative capital expenditures of $1.2 billion. We currently anticipate that AMD Fab 36 KG will attain these milestones and first be able to draw on the loans in 2006.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000119312504069741/d8k.htm
Also note that the Euro/$ exchange rate was reversed in 2004. I assume AMD had the smarts to hedge against exchange rate flux. Anyway, AMD financial guru's are perhaps AMD's biggest asset.
IMHO
Duke of URL,
This one has me stumped. Yeah you could say Intel is jump starting, but what?
Good question. This is one of these fringe projects that has you scratching your head and without knowing details it is anyones guess what the motivation and plan is. Assuming they launch something, I would like to see some "customers" lined up. Like patients, Hospital executives, and medical insurance company executives that will endorse the idea. Maybe the government with Medicare? Ultimately if there really is a need for a product Intel can deliver at reasonable costs and with potential for 3rd party profits, it can work.
IMHO
Intel Prescribes PCs For Health Care Field
Seeing growth and a hot market in health care, the No. 1 chipmaker plans to actually manufacture and sell personal computers geared to the home health care market.
Interesting. Could it be that OEM's are dragging their feet taking older generation CPU's and perhaps Intel has found a place for them? Maybe??? Sounds like a great idea, and reminds OEM's that efforts to artificially create a "duopoly" may have consequences. On second thought, Intel is not in the business of showing up its customers and more than likely it is a pure business decision.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20061229/bs_ibd_ibd/20061228tech01
IMHO
Move over rover, and let Intel take over
Intel wants everyone to multiply this holiday season -- in the middle of Times Square.
The chip giant has taken over Times Square's bookend video billboards -- the Reuters and Nasdaq signs -- and is allowing people to upload photos of themselves that will appear sometime before the end of the campaign on Jan. 7. Each photo first appears as one image and then begins to multiply into hundreds of smaller ones in a display that lasts about a minute.
"'Multiply' is now our overall campaign for all we do at Intel," said Thom Campbell, Intel senior media manager. "Our mission is to manifest 'multiply' in media."
http://www.playfuls.com/news_09_1606-Intel-Upload-Onto-Times-Square-Billboards.html
http://www.jossip.com/gossip/advertising/intel-jumps-on-1996s-hottest-photo-morphing-technology-2006...
How cool!
IMHO
RGood, all,
This seems to be AMD's general mode of operation...Try and take market share at all costs.
<Rant on>
Reading the biography of its founder J. Sanders is very telling.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Sanders_%28businessman%29
famous for style and flair,
attacked and beaten...but Jerry recovered
Sanders created Advanced Micro Devices; his personality was the company's personality — colorful, brash, perhaps a little too "Hollywood" for some.
In my view, Sanders basic principals still drive this company. Success for AMD depends on two things: TIME and MONEY
TIME: Sanders near death fighting experience in Chicago leads me to believe AMD's philosophy is this: "do what you need to do (launch Quadfather), say what you need to say("we will grow double the industry"), so that you have a chance to live to fight another day". The key component is time. This was the goal of their Dec 14 analyst meeting and why the focus was on the future. Given enough time AMD can achieve its goals. Take the Opteron as an example. It took almost 3 years of "give us time", "give us a chance", until they got their reward. Intel's problem was that they gave them a 6 year window of opportunity. AMD wants time to get it right and they point OEM's and Wall Street to the Opteron as evidence. Intel is responding; it is no accident that the CPU design cadence has been narrowed to 2 years. As Tenchu has said, Intel must be proactive. It must continue to close and narrow all windows of opportunity for AMD. Intel's best weapon is their products. But PR is also important.
MONEY: AMD has done a masterful job generating capital and the key component is their stock. Using Jerry's inherited Hollywood style sales pitches, AMD has diluted their stock with minimal affect. They will continue to do this as necessary as long as their stock is high. An example of this is their purchase of ATI, which was rushed ahead of the Intel NGMA. With AMD's price in the 40's and sliding, it was a race to get the most "bang" for the "buck". Guaranteed the next time AMD price reaches these levels AMD financial guru's will be cooking up some other way to extract capital from their stockholders. To combat this Intel needs to expose AMD, their currently week products, and get the street to hold the line on AMD stock. That means the Intel PR machine needs to be on its toes and be aggressive. Observations like fingolfen's, "AMD chips are REALLY GOOD at doing NOTHING", should be exploited by Intel. No need for technical rebuttals, it is all about marketing and perception. A chuckle at the above statement can be as affective as pages worth of technical specs. So yes, radical as it may sound, I do think that Intel benefits from a depressed AMD stock.
In summary, Intel must dish it out now that it can, and not allow AMD second, third and fourth chances. I think this is what is happening. AMD must execute flawlessly while under great pressure. So far AMD is playing it cool. As the saying goes, "never let them see you sweat". But I think sweat is what they are doing.
<End of Rant>
IMHO
All,
Just saw Rivet was asked about the number of Fabs between Intel and AMD and what that says about utilization. Rivet echoed something staunch AMDers have voiced here on these boards. Rivet says "Intel needs all their capacity to stay competitive" (suggesting poor manufacturing/yields).
In the past I have said that Intel needs to start wrestling with the pig, because they will get muddied anyway. If Intel knows Rivet's comments to be false, then Intel should come out and directly and emphatically, say they are false. They need not get into any details, but simply say Rivet is "wrong". This should be enough to get people to question the integrity of AMD's CFO and cast doubt on whether AMD knows what they are up against.
Let's see what Intel does about this?
IMHO
chipguy,
Some of AMD's financial predictions in today's report
smells like excretion to me. Of a bovine nature.
What do they have to lose?
Reality says that next year will be a struggle and the following years hinge on hopes, perfect execution by AMD and stumbles by Intel. You have two choices:
1) Tell the truth and you get hammered. Stock plummets. Creditors turn the other way. Customers hesitate, etc. you eventually die.
2) Live a lie and challenge the most optimistic high bar...and...succeed? fail?
The choice is easy. No matter what your expectations are for option 2) your are better off than option 1)
IMHO
kpf,
Re: CPU-Z I assume you mean Rev 1.37 and 1.38, not 1.7 and 1.8?
Yes.
IMHO
kpf,
What I was getting at is CPU-Z of this revision does not know Brisbane by name, unless its revision history is incomplete.
This [revision history is incomplete] may be the case. If you download rev 1.7 and 1.8 of CPU-Z and examine the .EXE file using some editor, you will find the string "Brisbane". So the writers of the CPU-Z knew about the name at least. Now whether they interpret the CPUID information properly is another issue. If it is handled properly, then the big question is, why Rev F and not Rev G? Is AMD trying to pass off Windsor cores on 65nm? I don't understand.
IMHO
tecate,
I don't believe this at all, why buy ATI now then?
Good question. My guess is that at the time AMD realized they can better compete with Intel if they "change" the game, their stock price was 40+ You know AMD is good at using "other peoples money", so it was a great chance to buy ATI on the cheap. However, around that time Intel was making noise with the NGMA and AMD's price started to decline. AMD then rushed to get the deal done ASAP. That is probably one reason, I am sure that there are others.
IMHO
re: FPT Is it only trading on the Vietnam stock exhchane?
My guess is yes. Vietnam is a hot market right now and the best way to play it may be through a international mutual fund, or check with your broker.
IMHO
I want some!
FPT's first day of trading quadrupled the investment of private equity group Texas Pacific Group and Intel Capital, a unit of Intel Corp., which in October paid $36.5 million for a combined 10 percent stake.
http://www.thanhniennews.com/business/?catid=2&newsid=23183
IMHO
mas,
Instead of rolling out its Fusion chips at the 65-nanometer node, AMD will wait until 45-nm process technology becomes available.
Is this a AMD-speak for a scheduling "slip" or was Fusion always targetted for 45nm?
IMHO
wbmw,
Can they also spin a $5.3B purchase positively, even as it lowers margins and subtracts from the bottom line?
AMD's financial handling of the ATI purchase is full of questionable tactics which in my opinion will have Wall St scratching their heads and debating exactly how to value the combined company. This was not done by accident, but rather on purpose to hide the weakening finacial condition of the new entity.
For example:
ATYT last made a financial report in June for their 3rd quarter that ended on May 31. So how will the accumulated (1.5 quarters worth of) revenues and earnings be reported or accounted for by AMD? There is bound to be some skewing. Estimating EPS will be another tough exercise. The total shares of the combined companies prior to the buyout was about 742 million, but AMD bought back 4.1 billion with loans (2.5 billion) and cash resulting in 545 million shares of the combined company. How does this dilution (to AMD original shares), slash, buyback (the ATI + AMD shares) affect EPS? How do you make an accurate estimate of EPS? How does Wall St value the actual reported EPS in January?
There is enough lipstick and cosmetics here to try and disguise the ugliest of pigs.
Let's wait and find out.
Yep, let's.
IMHO