I believe there’s only one party in this decision making process, Amarin. It is normal in the world of biotech to release topline results in a PR following a trial, to discuss topline a little bit in a cc and then to reveal the detailed trial results at a conference and/or in a major publication or both. I don’t see the AHA embargo inhibiting this normal process.

I don’t see the FDA being a party to the data release.

If those voices came from inside your head they do not count as credible sources. Raf, I believe your animal spirit has to be the mongoose, a most ferocious fighter that never relents in its assault on the cobra.

Speech to text produces many creative outcomes. The last sentence there should end “act precipitously“ (too late to edit).

It’s quite possible that the “select group“ will turn the results over to JT this weekend, and that JT and his team will take a few days to understand the data and we will find out late next week. That’s quite within the guidance that the company has issued multiple times. The time since data lock (assumed to be 8-31) is quite reasonable for a study of this magnitude and no anxiety by members of this message board will pressure the executive team to remove precipitously.

I never thought I would use this line: watch and learn, grasshopper. The FDA will be the follower here, the AHA will be the leader, assuming the R-I results are good enough to impress the AHA..

I’m so glad you are not making the decisions for the company. Ditch the AHA? Not!

James, I don’t remember if I posted here before the Adcom disaster but my ID and posting history are pretty long in the tooth. I do remember posting some weeks back thatt September puts were priced for trial failure, and that was when I was adding to an open short put position. I have posted far more on investor village as zombietom3. When I do post it’s not to create an historical record but just to express my opinion and sentiment. When I describe a trade that’s just saying I put my money where my opinion was.

I am short puts expiring tomorrow it was always my plan to acquire trading shares cheap this way. Assuming we don’t yet trial results before the close tomorrow or if we do and the share price doesn’t go up much, the average cost of shares put to me over the weekend will be about $2.40. Option plays for me are always trades in addition to my core long position.

I think we have about a 50-50 chance of getting top line results Monday morning, and about a 90-10 chance of getting results by Friday morning next week, and yes I think we have a 10% chance of not hearing the top line until the last weekend of September or even Monday, October 1.

I see no problem with JT’s guidance.

moot

In the spirit of raf’s post earlier I actually think the price would go up to $20 but that the FDA would steal 17 of them.

LOL You win post of the month!

Likewise, but on Medicare and Part D drug plan. None of my biomarkers would support a prescription, but I'm a firm believer in reducing SI.

My recurring order shipped on schedule a few weeks ago.

Thank you

Thanks for that info. I took my loss shortly after the adcom and moved on. I just got back in last year so was unaware of that event. I could feel bad for his wife and children but I would still celebrate that he could not officiate at anymore FDA lynching parties.

I did not know that. Colman was the hatchet man in more than on adcom. Can you point to his widow’s post/s?

Agreed. Two issues, both putting the FDA in opposition to Amarin.

The antipathy that many investors have toward TA and trading is IMO based on the fact that they don’t really understand the mechanism. Here is a simplified description:

A chart pattern may give a signal to buy or to sell and the trader reacts to that signal by buying or selling and holds that position until an opposite signal is given. That reversal can happen very quickly and the trader may close the position for a loss or it may happen a day later or two days later or a week later but the trader always responds to the signal, and, if he is good at his craft, more often than not he will capture a bite of action in that direction which is profitable to him Trading can be done on any chart interval: a minute chart, a 10 minute chart, a 30 minute chart, an hourly chart, a daily chart, a weekly chart or any interval the trader chooses to chart on. The interval refers to one vertical on the chart not the total time showing on the chart I cardinal rule for the trader is not to hold onto a position which reverses on him but to take the loss quickly when it is small.

Comments about traders flip-flopping reflect the observers’ lack of knowledge of the process. A trader goes whichever way the signal tells him. Trading is usually a zigzag process.

The offers that go out will be contingent on positive trial results, and the top line does not have to have been announced prior to the offers going out.

The intransigence of the FDA with respect to the ITC case; to wit, their failure to enforce the line between dietary supplement and prescription drug, makes me skeptical about the claims some make that the FDA harbors no ill will at this point toward Amarin and that we will receive fair treatment regarding an expanded label. The FTA has to be concerned about the rotting skeleton in their closet, the corruption they engaged in before and during the adcom.

STS, would you care to disclose the brand of COQ10 you take, or if you have tried different sources do you have an opinion on certain one/s?

I don’t understand why people have to read motives into every little detail of management action. The company guided for top line results by the end of September and that’s what I expect. There’s no sinister motive implied if they follow their guidance. We have many educated and experienced participants on this message board but not one of them is qualified to second-guess this management in this circumstance when no outsider has all the relevant facts at his disposal.

The announcement does not have to come on Monday it could be next Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday or and I very much doubt it Friday. And by the way although I did not join the contest I said late September on the message board a couple of times.

I think you have too much right brain.

Cancel the AHA presentation? Oh yeah, sure, and why not let AZN start selling their drug here right away too, and why not sell the company for $3/share while they're at it. The AHA will make the difference between share prices of $10 and $100 for this stock, so I would prefer they they skip announcing anything beyond a terse "met the PE" in the forthcoming PR before canceling the AHA presentation. The shareholders will be much better served if we leave that decision to JT and his crew. They know what to do.

I nominate Rock Around the Clock by Bill Haley and the Comets.

A very large hatchet man named Fortune will be knocking on your door?

website bug - duplicate posting

Look here for the timelines for restricted (sponsor and panelists) and public disclosures of briefing materials:

https://www.fda.gov/downloads/regulatoryinformation/guidances/ucm125650.pdf

As I recall from looking up the process after another adcom ambush a very long time ago, the sponsor and the panelists receive advance copies of the briefing documents, approximately 1-2 weeks? before they are formally published. My suspicion would be that at least one of the panelists leaked the briefing documents and that led to the massive put. The SEC, of course, should have followed the money and forwarded the information re the guilty parties to the DOJ for prosecution, but we know that’s not how things work in our well-lubricated economy.

Wrong! The adcom was a sneak attack, coordinated and calculated to inflict maximum damage. The company had no chance against that cabal. If you don't know that then you were not here.

Why am I so certain? Because I don't see this management gaming this result. I don't believe they would jeopardize their credibility in the way you describe. They have guided for the scenario I described and that's what I expect.

I am 200% certain that Amarin management are NOT timimg the announcement of RI results around ITC court decision or any other extraneous event of known or unknown calendar date. They will make the announcement in a timely manner once the advisory group informs them and they understand the results. They will not look at the calendar to see what else is happening beyond deciding whether to make the announcement in the post market or the premarket.

Click on the chart and it expands to easy to read size.

The open interest you see today is from the close of business on Friday. You won’t know the net effect of today’s volume until you see the open interest tomorrow morning.

Way too many cooks watching this water come to a boil, trying to decide when it will be too long. I believe the small group which will examine the unblinded data would have been instructed not to inform the CEO and the rest of management until they had completed a decision tree of specified analyses. I believe the information won’t become material until that time.

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