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Red, these people will sell because they can't front the phase 2 costs, they will not give us an option and front the cost. If they can finance their share of phase 2 they will go along and their share will become more valuable. Or they will look at what SNP is offering and say x now is better than waiting for x+ after phase 2 and take their gains and run
Exxon bailed after trying to deal with SEO, oil prices were about $25-30 per barrel & SEO wanted north of $10.00 for unproven, Exxon was used to paying $2-3. Grandur from Addax said the only way to develop the JDZ was in clusters to make the infastructure afordable, of course the barrel price being arround $80 makes a big difference now.
Chevron anounced Obo-1 was a billion barrel find, Total paid between 2-3 billion for the FSPO at Akpo and its serving 22 wells it would take a lot of development to afford the infastructure to go all the way back to Nigeria, now Total only has to go to Akpo, something like 30 km. where they have a 3 billion FSPO.
badog, chevron stated about the time they committed to phase two exploration that the reason Obo-1 was not commercial by itself was the cost of installing the infastructure to serve one prospect. It has been posted here on the board with a reference to chevron site or pr. Being a free member I can't look it up for you, maybe someone who is a paid member can find it for you.
Hunter, I have never seen anything where SEO's number was actually quoted from a source. The exchange I have seen credited as the source of the number was between a ERHC officer and some shareholders at a meeting. The officer, when ask what share price would get SEO to sell was told it would be at least $10.00 or more. No specific number or circumstance.
Exxon bailed out after trying to deal with SEO and finding he wanted a significant number for his investment, wasn't going to budge on price and was generally hard for them to deal with. They were used to paying $2-3 per barrel for unproven and SEO wanted north of $10
John, someone had posted a few months ago that chevron disclosed the cost of developing the infastructure was what made block 1 non commercial by itself. They stated that if the other JDZ blocks were developed it could yeald commercial quanities. I also bellieve Grandur from Addax had talked about developing clusters of prospects in the JDZ.
Longtimer, remember only 15% of block 5 & 6 and 20% of block 9 are spoken for. There is still all of block 7 & 8 also. Total could get these if the 3D that was just purchased shows anything worth going after.
The JDZ hasn't had a currency infusion in several years and might be willing to give some of the upfront money for a guranteed fast track development of block one and excellerated schedule for blocks 5, 6 7, 8 & 9.
Restricted stock does not effect the ability to vote the stock, only the ability to sell the stock on the market. The restricted stock can't be offered on the exchange like any registered shares we bought on the over the counter market.
Your memory may be better than mine I pushed it out to september because I cant serch the old messages, but remembered it was this summer. I belive a comment was made about the third well in block 4 being significant because Addax could have drilled this required well with the pathfinder instead of Oki east.
I also believe I have seen posted the fact that Addax has a one well commitment for a block near the JDZ that has to be drilled before september, if memory serves.
I belive the commitment is for $16,000,000 in expenditures which could cover seismic investigation as well as well drilling. With drill ships costing as much as $650,000 per day + incidentials, it would not take much to use up that amount.
In my opinion, news released from the operator or other entity about exactly what they found. So far all we have is rumor and spectulation. Anouncement of commercial find and/or phase two investigation. Anouncement of second drill ship lease, any of these events should give investors something besides dot connecting to value their investments.
Actually I am counting on him having a big ego - that is why I trust him to get us the best deals possible - what ever he decides to do - he values his reputation & is not going to hurt it for a few dollars
Just a thought, China is financing the Brazilian oil boom to the tune of 10 billion for a gurantee of oil payments. They might be interested in financing marginal fields for ERHC for the same gurantee, china wants resources and anyway they can gain them would be attractive. They have not done so well on direct deals, maybe their best way in is through the back door, let SEO gather up a bunch of marginal fields and finance their development to insure the oil comes to China when pumped.
Razor, the chrome shares are the same 42% attributable to Offor since he owns chrome's shares
They, SNP can also pressure them by proposing a "fast track" development stage that would make STP happy but would put the smaller players under financial pressure.
There is also the arbitration on JDZ block 5 and 6 and our two 15% EEZ blocks that could be critical in pricing any kind of buyout/buyin. I still believe we are on the table for the right price. I also think the right price may not be reached untill all the variables are finalized. This may include the EEZ production agreements.
I also think there may not be a buyout if the results are good enough and the price keeps going up. The nigerian dormant fields initiative may have changed the whole playing field & the business plan, if SNP wants to be the operator on the blocks coming up for auction they have to be partnered with somebody like ERHE.
Thgere is also 15,000 rebels who have to be retrained and jobs found for. SEO may be positioning himself and us to take advantage of yet unanounced government programs. Remember he made his first fortune from knowing who to work with/for in the government and how to put together contracts for public works.
There is also no generally recognized defination of condensate, so if Nigeria says its condensate it doesn't get counted toward their quota.
Chevron valued it enough to have already committed to second phase of drilling. If it had no value they would have walked away.
Exon sold out after negoating with SEO and finding him no push over.
I don't completely agree, I think the results are mostly known by the partners and any buyouts will be coming from the meetings with Addax/SNP where they discuss future plans and costs. If there is commercial, which I think there is, the partners are going to have to arrange their share of round two and maybe fast track development. I think the chinese will want to have access to the gas and fluids as soon as possible, they had shortages this winter and no where to get additional supplies.
The discoveries can help finance the development if it can be proven, I think Addax/SNP will fast track so the smaller players will be pushed to finance their share and will sell out if offered a reasonable profit on their investment.
Jim, I found out about this stock from another shareholder who lives in the same city in Illinois, at least two of the people you are discussing are brothers. I would think many of the eleven or twelve you are discussing have someone in common to their investing in ERHC
CVX had posted earlier that OBO-1 was not commercial because of the amount of infastructure that had to be created to get the oil/gas to market for the one prospect. They also said if the othewr blocks were being developed that would change. Total has developed the infasturcture to get gas and condisate and oil from Akpo to market. It is only a few KM away from block 1, it belongs to total and Senopec, not chevron.
Total can buy into the JDZ and send oil out through Akpo.
Deals fall through every day. I personally know of one deal that was close for three years. It didn't go though till last fall, but had been on the burner for that long.
I've said it before, I think SEO has always been open for a deal, or many deals or not, if he can't get his price. Would I take $.70 now or $10.00 in five years, I'm waiting for $10.00. Would I take $6.00 now or wait for $10.00 in five years, a completely different deal, one I might jump on. But if they are offering $5.50 & my minimum is $6, maybe we are close to a deal, but it dosen't mean we close.
Has anyone else wondered if the extension of the date for phase II was requested to not give the shares a boost while someone of the chinese persuation was accumulating shares under $1.
Any move, like commiting to phase II at this point would indicate good drilling results and cause a SP boost.
SNP can buy 36,000,000 shares at market before they have to file with SEC (5% of 722,000,000 shares)maybe this is a way to lower buyout price
My opinion is that there has always been the posibility of a deal. The question is will the people who matter make an agreement. I have always thought that ERHE was on the table, the question was how many things had to fall into place for SNP to be willing to meet SEO's price or prices, I have always beloved he had a series of prices he was willing to sell for, maybe not the same prices. There would have been a pre drill price, a post drill price, a post EEZ price, etc.
Stass, the last thing I saw posted about Obo-1 was that the reason Chevron had said it was non commercial was that it was by itself a long way from anywhere & unless there was development in the other blocks it would be too costly to develop the necessary infastructure to get the fluids and gas to market.
Great find Mark, you really come through with the news
Being a novice at this and already making a couple of errors by jumping to conclusions, I am addressing this to the seasoned oil professionals here. My understanding is they are drilling into the top of the formation at each location, not off center like Obo-1. Is it reasonable to belive they are going to find more gas at the top of the formation and more oil as they work down the formation?
Shouldn't we expect the test wells just drilled to be more than average gas and less oil?
I quoted you reg FD back that says it is not illeagal under the two circumstances in my post, again READ the material you refer to.
Some of are out of unobligated money at the moment. Bought a couple of weeks ago at .55, wish I had waited to get them at .45
That's the danger of it. Giving sombody insider information and trusting them to keep it to themselves can be dangerous
Mid, I suggest you read what you sent to me.
"However, as adopted, Regulation FD is narrower - only disclosures to securities industry professionals, or to company shareholders that are likely to trade, are within the rule." and also this
"Regulation FD does not apply to disclosures to persons who are themselves bound by duties of trust or confidence not to disclose the information or to use it for trading. This includes "temporary insiders" (such as the company's investment bankers), persons who have expressly agreed to maintain confidentiality, and"
All the company has to do based on this rule is have SEO promise not totell anyone else, such as us.
Read my original post, having insider information is not illeagle, trading on it is, no matter how you obtain it. If the receptionists at a law firm overhears a client talking to a lawyer and trades on that information they have broke the law. If Martha Stewart hears from her broker who knew the president of a company who's stock was going to tank and she trades on that & lies about it, well thats why she did time isn't it.
exceo, I don't believe it is illeagal to have insider information, only to trade on insider information. I have felt this was one reason SEO hasn't traded either plus or minus
Tap, remember Sal Torme has delayed their elections because they do not have cash to pay for them, where would they get funds for more seismic
It's been said before, I think by Kowanski, if they are drilling into the top of the cap, which they apear to have done they are going to hit gas. Some one suggested that was why Chevron drilled Obo-1 of center.
someone posted a few months ago that odd lot trade like that were code messages being passed between market makers
They are all Lee, Chin and Shin, chinese forms of jones and smith, thats why they are kept secert JMHO
Midtier, all the partners are suppose to be getting the drilling results as they are known to the operator, if they are not public, or even if they are the buyout price should reflect what they know about the results. If they are not public we may never know what they sold out for, but if they are public we have a chance they will publish details
They can just abandon their interest in the block.