is making moves.
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I hope to see us strategically plan out some post-settlement investment opportunities when we get there - or at least in between all of the celebrating!
lol, that's a lovely thought.
I'm very, very curious to know myself. I know its too early to speculate but I would imagine our payout would materially exceed that of the Bear Stearns settlement.
I'll definitely take a look when I have a moment. Its Friday and I'm charged with the responsibility of finishing up and distributing our firm litigation calendar. =/
While we're on the subject, I have a valuation question for anyone willing to provide meaningful feedback.
Up to now, we've based our settlement estimates on a lump sum settlement flowing down to commons - yielding a conservatively estimated $12+ recovery for the UQs. What can we gauge the commons to recover if thepennyguy's scenario plays out and the Ps and Ks are converted to JPM preferreds? What metrics can/would we use to estimate?
Fish is right.
I think your theory is a pretty realistic scenario and it might explain why the trustee insisted on the EC getting involved as quickly as it did - to ensure that our settlement is not peanuts, like JPM's first offer to Bear Stearns shareholders.
Thanks jhdf51, it's great to be here. I wish I could head over to the meeting but I know I wouldn't be able to get out of work and it's my first day of the spring semester, so I'm really hoping someone takes some good notes.
I'm guessing we're going to see representatives from some major institutional equityholders at the meeting. Not quite sure who though.
Funny you should say that. I'd like to add a few McDonalds to my commercial portfolio after we settle. Its a good business to own if you have a solid team in place to run it effectively and efficiently.
I don't know for sure but I can't see any reason for withholding that information from the public.
The top seven shareholders, I believe.
I don't know if it's the "only reason" but I can sure say the likelihood of a recovery flowing to equity would be a major reason, if not the only one.
It would be a breach of the trustee's duty of care if a significant recovery was expected and equity had no seat of representation in the settlement negotiations.
Yes, the Judge will have to approve the EC formation - and she will. The U.S trustee is charged with the responsibility for forming the committee and appointing members to the group based on certain criteria including the type and quantity of ownership interest amongst other things. I don't know the details but that's the jist of it.
No, she wouldn't.
Doc, this was published this morning:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXIvW4igKV38
The current share value you're referring to is a measure of WMI - not the seized interest WMI had in WMB.
For settlement purposes, valuation will be at the time of seizure. If we can prove that JPM colluded with the FDIC and ratings agencies to drive the PPS down, then I suspect the valuation would take place prior to the effects of that collusion.
Very good point, but remember, just because JPM originally offered $8/share does not mean that the market value was $8/share. Moreover, JPM's offer preceeded the fraudulent conduct that lies at the very core of our legal claims against it - meaning that potential punitive damages and real-world market valuation for compensatory damages arising from a favorable judgment against JPM/FDIC must be accounted for in any and all settlement negotiations.
Happy New Year everyone. I'll have you all in mind when I toast to much anticipated prosperity - among other things - in 2010. God bless!
Merry Christmas to my fellow I-Hubbers and friends. God bless!
Merry Christmas to you and yours, Fish!
See you next year.
I'll take it, lol.
Hey, where am I?
jk.
Thanks ETO-Castle, it's nice to be back. My semester went well. Three more and i'll be finished!
Well said Fish!
Well said Fish!
They certainly will.
Brembo and I were just reviewing the numbers. If there is $12B in debt and an additional $7.4B in preferred, then a conservative, book value settlement of $26B (which won't happen, I expect 2x book at the very minimum) would yield $6.6B to the commons - not including our current assets or the potential recovery of deposits and tax refunds under summary judgment.
There is NO way that settlement will not flow down to the commons. Moreover, after the equity committee is formed, TPG and our big institutional brothers will ensure that commons have a voice and are compensated.
JW, spare us your sentiments and save it. Please post a verifiable link citing where AND when WMI's attorneys have ever stated that commons will not be compensated. To the contrary, I remember hearing counsel state in a recent omnibus that the estate is expecting a significant recovery. Given the relatively modest disparity between assets and liabilities, I suspect this statement totally undermines your point.
Merry Christmas.
God bless you SF. That's great news!
Amen to that, brother.
Thanks Doc!
Cheers to that, Dragynn. Justice is a beautiful thing.
Thanks Gmenfan!
I think I did well but I won't know my grades until some point next month.
On another positive note, I had a brief conversation with the head partner of the bankruptcy group in my firm yesterday during our holiday luncheon and he agreed that a settlement will take place between the parties. Not that I ever doubted it, but it was nice to know that a well known bankruptcy with over twenty-five years of experience sees what I do.
I'm officially done with my final exams as of yesterday, fellas.
I missed you all quite a bit but it looks like there has been quite a bit of activity in my absence - most notably the massive follow-up to the rule 2004 motion, filed earlier this week. I'm so happy to see WMI finally bring out the big guns.
Awesome!
Congratulations, XOM. My best to you and your family.
Nice find, Sidedraft.
Nice find, Sidedraft.
Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow I-Hubbers and your families.
Anytime, JHD!