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I trade you 4 inches of frozen rain and ice that has to be cut into igloo blocks before the the snow blower will accept it.
I buying S&P PUTs at market open. I had a chance to buy them at $25 before market close today but expected they would move S&P up to 1397 region at open and I was looking try and get them for about $21 or $1 a day time premium.
For a day, I thought we, the US, had some control of our market. Europe will open down and with all the snow in NY tomorrow there will not be many professionals minding the store in the afternoon. It could get ugly again quickly.
NDE rocking and rolling
S&P futures 1389.5 up 2 pts more since close.
I reversed from short 1375 calls to long 1375 calls and sold a few 1375 PUTs to cover premiums.
when it looked like we were going to bust I closed the short PUTs and left the long calls there since I thought they would be next to worthless if we didn't rally.
Well everything looks OK for retest of 1403 tomorrow.
PS RE LEND
I went long NDE
no one left alive as publically traded competitors.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=LEND
S&P futures got to 1365 AH on March 5th and next day market rallied.
No rally looks likely.
Ditto my long position
Added MTG to short list
When they beat up banks like NDE this badly, one thinks that the days of two to three retail banks on every corner is almost over.
Any bank that had REIT like qualities in terms of it's footprint be meet same fate as sub prime mortgage bankers.
If they keep coming after MTG, all bets may be off.
Damage to BKX yesterday needs to be repaired. off 0.2% today
I don't know how much can be expected so quickly.
That was the idea. We will see how it plays out
Actually reversed S&P from net short 1375 MAR calls to long.
Looking for a little pop as people come out of bomb shelters
Long QCOM and SNDK
Feeling comfortable about S&P MAR settlement holding 1375 vs retesting lower until next month.
Market short term will have flight to quality to staunch the losses of large caps.
Tech names like AAPL RIMM GOOG will see profit taking.
I don't think they going to get to a market bottom until they settle up MAR contracts sometime early next week. With the overwhelming trend to buy PUTs whatever the market makers buy Thr and Fri to thwart PUT buyer profits are only going to be dumped Monday and Tuesday.
Sentiment is so bad you see thousands of S&P contracts in low 1300's and lower stretching out to APR JUN and longer
1400 strike price
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=%5EGSPC&k=1400.000000
leaps dec 09
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=%5EGSPC&m=2009-12-18
You would think the stock bubble is bursting without the much if a wealth effect preceding it as back in late 90's.
I am sure they could build a large fitness center with space for a bookcase for Sports Illustrated.
RE NDE
Looking at the company info on website it is either a good buy at a discount if they don't do much sub prime stuff with fudged loans on books or the sign of another major banking mess brewing.
The fact that the broker dealers were the facillitators of the sub price loan packaging is something I didn't really point out.
RE Paulson meeting with Wall Street today
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BUSINESS_PUSHES_BACK?SITE=NJASB&SECTION=HOME&TEMP...
I just happen to have heard that Cheney was sitting on these meetings.
They don't bring him out unless some big decision involving government money being promised to deal with sub prime situation is involved. He actuallt runs this country.
Bush is looking at vacation ranch property in SA just in case American people send him packing like Shah of Iran Pinochet or Idi Amin <just kidding>
I think it is ironic that the big broker dealers get to paraphrase Captain Renault in Casablanca
I'm shocked, shocked to find that fibbing on your mortgage app is going on in here!
Everybody out at once!
It basically shuts down the existing sub prime market and jacks the rates to double digits
This morning's news was not that important
Today's action is like when you get hit; you hit back.
We have to see if it can take a next big punch
I heard this guy Chalmers Johnson on CSPAN about a month ago talking about his book
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/02/27/1454229
CNBC had on uber bear guest on this morning
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837857
Market Doom & Gloom
Mon. Mar. 12 2007 | 7:00 AM [06:45]
A recession is an absolute certainty, according to Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital president. He shares his gloomy market outlook with CN...
He said the exact same thing as Chalmers Johnson RE the economy.
The oddest thing in my half awake state was that no CNBC host tried to dismiss him as a kook. Then the futures sold off.
I think you would have fun charting the
Shanghai Composite
It seems that double top is shaping up.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=000001.SS
PS looking at most of the components the majority are up 100% in last 3 months.
close has been lower than the open
It's been futures led all week.
European markets were down 0.5-1.0% before payroll data, went up at least 1% at 8:30 and now mixed. We are not really in control of our markets.
Administration is in South America this week to drum up trade with US since were are running a trade deficit of services (remittances of old migrant labor force) with South America of about $4 B per month.
Way I look at it, they are last nook and cranny for drumming up exports to stabilize current account deficit.
Open interest on S&P PUT/CALL
I think I am seeing a 2-3 ratio of PUTs to Calls. People are still buying PUTs for MAR in 1200's and APR open interest is rising as well as expriy is next Fri.
I've talked to 2-3 small investors briefly about what they are thinking and they like to lighten up if they see the prices that get them even with their recent positions.
I think were going to stay in tight range as all PUT holders are not going to be rewarded and people are more amenable to close a existing long position if it get close to profitable.
Personally, I am going to wait until we see a close above 1400 to get complacent long. We still haven't repaired last Friday's damage.
Question RE SNDK
This email made it through the spam filter and it makes me figure there is a lot of flash memory out there looking for a home. Those last to columns are cost in dollars.
500 less 500 over
SD card SMI 70X 64 MB 4.1 4.1
SD card SMI 70X 128 MB 4.3 4.2
SD card SMI 70X 256 MB 4.7 4.6
SD card SMI 70X 512 MB 5.0 4.9
SD card SMI 70X 1 GB 8.5 8.3
SD card SMI 70X 2 GB 15.1 14.8
SMI 70X PCB A made is TW with ROHS
Agreed 5 days vs 2 months timeline shows up in a lot of charts
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
The oscillator chart if fully cooked while the summation chart isn't as convincing.
The questions is:
Do you buy in to the after 2 futures led moves (the selloff at 4-4:30 PM, followed by the overnight rally) or do you sit tight.
I saw S&P MAR futures at about 1369 in the early evening which has definitively triggered strong support since we are now 10 pts higher now.
Sounds as good as an idea as Compaq's DEC Alpha processor a couple a years ago that had to be bought by Intel and quickly put to sleep.
You got to remember if it actually more advanced and faster then what crap Intel wants to push Intel can easily afford to buy the entire project and bury it.
OTOT
It seems Trump not getting buried in my backyard yet.
http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/index.asp?layout=articleXml&xmlId=579271386
MAR S&P futures look at 4:32 PM of 1370 look like we open at least 6 pts off tomorrow which means the panic selling is getting closer.
I opened a short position on ANF based upon your post last week.
I think you had another stock you thought was goig to tumble but it doesn't come up on search for "short".
It is going to be funny to watch all the cover your ass downgrades by analysts as talk of recession increases
I got emails today for INTC and CSCO stuff trying to get liquidated at bargain basement prices 4 weeks before EOQ.
Intel 3.2 GHZ P4 processors for $72 and Linksys wireless routers for $25 & 512 MB Mp3 players for $50 for example.
Cash value of futures IMO look like 1370 so there been some dumping as shorco describes.
I almost pulled the trigger at 9:55 AM to setup long play but ISM number made me close all of last monday's MAR S&P positions and re-sell them for APR @ 1400.
I think we need the sentiment to go way bearish instead since the fundamentals aint getting any better and this anit a staples commercial where you can push the easy button and buy the indexes higher. we are talking about Trillions vaporizing when volitility was low and downside risk was thought of as nonexistent. Market was effetively "all in" as of last mondat and all the Kings 401K money for Mar has not aved us from setting a lower low at the close today.
I have a feeling amount of money and the total cast of characters with their fingers in the double digit returns of sub prime market has yet to come out.
Like 1990's LTCM crisis it is the more stable financial entities writing this crappy paper are going to have to come along and ante up to cover the losses off the backs of the borrowers who paying prime. They may have to pay a little more in interest putting more of the no money down people at higher risk of defaulting.
As far as I can see Freddie Mac just got out of sub prime last week.
God forbid someone says recession.
Increased volitility means to the upside as well. I would not be surprised below 1350 intraday Mon/Tue and over 1400 by Fri.
PS AJC was chortling S&L 1550 even as late as 2/26
Market works hard to fool the most number of people.
I am going to open a long side to my trades on any weakness Monday.
Market started to look more like a correction. Not much covering of these declines as compared to last 2 20+ slips.
We are going to be weak till the close.
Monday morning will be messy
Only question is MOnday or Tuesday for bargain hunting.
or does recent stock declines begins the drawn out process by Moody's S&P etc of incessant fear mongering about the integrity of trillions of sub prime paper, junk bonds and pension assets.
NDX up 1.6% off morning low.
I am not watching close enough to see the signs of classic capitulation of a market bottom.
SNDK and APPL trading higher.
No proof that lowest of the intraday lows in this decline has been reached.
Nikkei/10=NDX.
No matter what the exact divisor is, the Nikkei being off 1.77% doesn't bode well for NDX tomorrow.
PS AJC effect dated 2/26/2007
This is G o o g l e's cache of http://www.smartmoney.com/pundits/index.cfm?story=cohen as retrieved on Feb 26, 2007 14:24:09 GMT.
http://www.smartmoney.com/pundits/index.cfm?story=cohen
asia (Taiwan and Shanghai) puking again
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Most of the towns in previous post were fully developed 50 years ago so there is not much change in number and type of houses.
The really high end communities North, West, and South of NYC do not show much weakness or obvious trends.
PS S&P futes getting punky.
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07417
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07931
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07945
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07458
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07760
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07760
I think the prices may not give accurate since relative range in value of single family vs multiple family dwellings are not documented.
The number of sales should be declining because of tightening of lending requirements so many people are effectively being locked out of buying right now.
Here is comparable town to Compton CA in New Jersey East Orange (90%+ non white community right outside of Newark NJ). # of sales on 2-3 month running average is below previous year's data.
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07017
Here is data for some of NJ upscale towns. Volumes and prices are off.
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07090
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07901
Data for middle class town of Union,NJ (very uniform neighborhoods of capes and bilevels built in 1940-50's) shows similar decline in volume and price
http://www.melissadata.com/lists/ezlists/ezHomeowners.aspx?zip=07083
S&P futures 1398 up 3 implying S&P cash value about 1390 at 4:15 PM.
There was some puking up of long positions right after close. It is not like shorts bought at close to square their positions.
I am tempted to put foot in water long about 1375. It would be hard to "send to money heaven" (a Zeev expression) all of 2nd half of 2006 LTBH money they put into market's rally.
It is hard to think there is much reserve left on the brakes to not settle near the lows of the day.
OEX is off 2.5% S&P is off 3.6% and Naz comp is only 3.7% off
WOW DOW off 500 here we go
This is big money to the exits decline.