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It's hard to gauge which direction the market is going to go here - if it is fair to say the $INDU travels inverse to the $USD, and the $USD is greatly swayed by the economic calender to the point where everything is a big deal - today the USD consumer confidence came out positive, till then I thought the market was going to head down - tomorrow is core durable goods(08:30) and new home sales(10:00), I be watching the above times tomorrow to see what the reaction is to these figures - the US buck does look like it wants to head up alittle, but more sideways trading as it is where it was in Dec 07, if it should go down and crosses below 77 I think the markets may really take off - I hope you do well tomorrow Ipre
I see that Ipre I just got back in - couldn't believe it, had a dismal start - how is your BGZ doing?
I wouldn't turn my nose up at a double taran, what are you playing now? - my XJT is down - I'm hoping it will go green this week
sold czz for 8.14 - in XJT
I'm thinking I will be buying XJT on Monday if I can find a dip - they have less then 27 million shares total in OS and float - buy back of $10 million - institutions and insiders hold 67% of the shares, leaving roughly 9 million shares in play, which could be substantialy less with the buyback plus long term holders who will not sell till they are closer to when they entered - the price is at a premium of 2x price/book - what do you think Ipre -
sorry ipre forgot how to send charts - so BGZ large cap bear 3x is the inverse for the russell 1000 index - to play this you also have to look at the volatility of the market VIX which measures the investors fear factor on the option market - which appears low right now - good article on yahoo bgz board on playing these etfs - abit too scarey for me -
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p97988633173&a=176183492&r=280
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p64524005705&a=176183534&r=7382
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BGZ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p97988633173&a=176183559&r=6392
hope so Ipre - I'll look around and see if I find anything for next week and look at your picks - anybody else on the board got picks for next week? Renteck(RTK) has 190 million shares out got a pull back when they did a stock offering at 1.75 - but the overallotment only equaled 5% of the total stocks they had out or now 200 million - not really enough to be worrisom - they got 8 airliner fuel contracts, it is overplayed right now - but worth following - expressjet(XJT) did a 10 million stock buyback after a reverse split last October - the big run was due not only to the buyback but it is also a short squeeze play - I'll try and find the short numbers on it to see how many days to cover - might be worth a play - thanks for the reply Ipre
CZZ - sugar play - sugar crisis driving up sugar stocks - not many to choose from IPSU ANDE CPO(alternative sweetner) - I bought in at 7.40 hoping to see over 9.00
QID ? Looks like it wants to head up.
DELL and ADSK. Ipre do you invest in stocks that offer DRIPs or SPP programs?
I suppose I was hoping maybe it would bounce
ipre what about the etf HNU.to - is natural gas going to turn here
anybody interested in doing a post mortum on one of the major pairs of the past week to see what happened and why to look forward to the coming week what we should anticipate to happen? Questions that pop on for me and somebody may be able to answer - why did the U/J pair not act like U/swiss or U/cad? Will we see a downturn on the Yen if they announce a stimulus package? Somebody asked if the Euro will drop being in a pennant pattern - I'm at work right now but if I remember right the larger pennant on the E/U pair was formed on the 1 hr - down going so the anticipated move was up which it did - where would you enter from here - hopefully it will continue making the pennant pattern and buy would be a breach above the pennant - short breach below. Will the E/U pair move up - I'm thinking it might as the U/swiss broke below its retracement on friday. I'm thinking of adding the whole retracement from the high of last year to the low of this year on the Euro as we have seen N/U reach 100% retrace from last highest high and pass it - post mortum anyone on say G/U, U/J, E/U or...?
last post - everybodys saved from me for the rest of the day - I'm thinking just trading the pound - but waivering on the euro - the yen just looked so nice all week
I try and trade the best chart out of 8 different pairs and decided I have got to get to one maybe two
If you watch only one currency pair - and play it solely - I think the odds will increase in your favor to be more profitable - that way your only looking for news in this pair - reading the calender for this pair and know the supports and resists for it -
no - I'm just quieter about my blunders and louder about my wins - lol
looking quickly at the COT report - non comercials are net short on the swiss, net long on the euro and net short on the pound, traders are increasing their longs in new new zealand and australia - extreme diffs are Cad remaining net short(with traders increasing their positions and Swiss, traders removing positions away from the long to short 3 to 1
No - don't ever think that way - it's not possible for you to be stupid when I've cornered the market on stupidness
I think I change depending on the volatility of the day - but I like the 15m and 1hr
aus/cad looking like it may start turning down next week - it looks really oversold - the cot report should be out - will look at it to see if traders are starting to feel their longs are getting abit tippy on those high fliers
Sorry Sherri - we have all had our share of rough weeks - play with the CCI system and see if it is feasible - looking at last week(with this idea) 8 trades - two misses - 6 trades positive figuring you do not want to watch the computer all the time put a 40 pip tp or roughly 240 pips last week on the euro - actually what does everybody think about this system - can it be improved(no doubt)
anyways that was fun playing around with euro - this system is ahead 50 pips from 0800 this am - if you applied the opposite trade to swiss with a crossover at zero you could add another 20 pips
doesn't work on the 15m - on the 1hr 9 trades this week 344 pip gain, only two trade signals generated on london open - could be 374 if one adds that once pa is moving in the direction anticipated put a sl at BE so you can leave your trade open - could be less if price action reverts and you miss your close signal - of course this representation is unfair for the euro this week as they had a rate day in there
the CCI replaces your MacD for the crosses - but on the daily on any chart the daily - look for a convergence of price action and the MacD line - the E/U was pointing towards a huge move up when three things happened - one the MacD threw the first green over zero, the MacD and pa were not consistent, and third, a close candle above mid bollies - geez I should really play the Euro more often
...what if it was applied to the daily for reference if the play is down trending or uptrending - this might allow an early entry into a move up but only short/long on the extremes, not waiting for a crossover - therefore +190 or -190; taking your time to pick as close to the bottom(or top) on previous closes
...then let's say that verification for taking a position is that the previous candle must have closed above the 5dma for a long and closed below the 5dma for a short
what if on your E/U chart - you used your CCI(9) - with +190 top, 6 zero and -197 bottom. If you short euro below 6 and keep your short till it crooses above 6. Long euro above 6 and keep your long till it crosses below 6. Use the 1 hr chart
I see a working up channel here of 50 pips with the bottom trend line from this am at 06 on the 15m and just a few minutes ago - if the bottom trend holds this may be a good place to play up and down - top trend line from 0100 this am and 1800hrs - see what happens
I did well - but I have a serious lack of discipline which hinders me and has me looking under the couch cushions for my coffee as there is not profits to take at times - but overall I'm pulling it together to be more consistent
master candles - it generally retraces to the beginning, triangles - breakouts and bowl patterns are lucrative plays for me - I never trade without judging the last daily candle - in U/J case the 5 and 10 were underneath with the MacD just crossing(on my modified) - another interesting way to play in rabbit ears or montains on the CCI - - a turn on the MacD below the O is just a continuation pattern down or channelling - a break and turn above is continuation of an uptrend - wow - I know this is disjointed - there is just so much and so many different ways to play - but keep it simple
I'm of the strong believe I'm trding blind if I don't have my pivot points on the chart - if your trading E/U you need to have U/swiss chart opened - both should have their retracements on, both should have their daily pivot points - look for shooting stars, railroad tracks on exhausted hard moves - resist of price at pivot points - I short at these points with a tight stop loss in anticipation it will trendle back to the retrace or the next pivot point - Ok so looking at U/CHF it challenged its retrace and challenged its pivot point and is sitting mid way between - so E/U is basically stuck in limbo waiting for a swiss to make a move - U/J 100 mark is a touchy one - this could easily fall back to the bottom of the triangle on the daily or just above 96 - ok I broke my promise - sorry villas
sherri - I know a couple of people asked me about ideas - so ok - self taught and my way is far from perfect - what I do is say on E/U - I took the last highest high and the last lowest low and put a fib retrace on it then I take the daily pivot points from the day before and put it on my chart - so I have points of reference - I use emas(some are smas) the 5, 10, 21, 35, 50, 62 and 200. I use them in a modified Daryl guppy type system where if the 5, 10, 21 are crossing the 35, 50 and 62 then the trend is shifting. My MacD is modified to suit my 5m and 15m at 9, 21, 6 - I also use a fast S, RSI and CCI - they are all valuable but the most interesting is the Fast S put a line at 25 50 75 then you can start seeing the trends and where to place positions. U/Swiss is the opposite correlating chart to E/U - that is how I spot the E/U reversals not to be annoying. Ok there is tons more, and I'm sure you guys know more then me - I just don't want to see you get discouaged - U/J broke out of its triangle today and spiked - I have misread patterns - happens - just get out of your position - sorry mods if overwinded please delete my message
I'm looking at three areas - the high on Nov 3 - 100.56 + it is very close to the next retracement line, then traffic all the way to 101.71 then should be clear to 103.48 following this. Retracement now to 99.62 the top resist of yesterday(on Oanda) - now my hmmm be careful side tells me this pattern on the hour is a pattern that U/J repeats - so the retracement could be deeper to the bottom of the triangle - just imho
still have my long on it
I've never cared for Oanda d/t their limited technicals - their close on the daily is at 2000hrs I suspect that is what gives a different pivotal point - however I find their pivot points fairly reliable - the problem with u/swiss is that it ran into the 200ema on the 15m and threw a hanging man - or umbrella what ever the choice of candle expressions one likes - going back to U/Swiss turn with a shooting candle threw the 1st resist also gave E/U double railroad tracks showing a reversal - it really is individual how one interupts what they see and play - I preferr the method of out of the friing pan and directly into the fire such as my long on the U/CAD right now - lol - I do not want to insult anybody and am just learning, so I will keep quiet and do what I came here to do - learn
just for interest - {as I'm slow and have to figure this out} E/U is triing to cross its pivot point
sold both positions - but I think the downside to U/Swiss is 1426 - pivot point - the shooting star on the 15m pierced the 1st resist at 1495 which leves room for E/U to go higher - hmmm sounds good looks like latin to me
went short U/swiss and long E/U