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PRTK has PDUFA for its IV-Oral Antibiotic 10/2/18.
Indications are CABP & Skin Infection.
The hook for this treatment is that hospital patients can be started on IV and moved to oral when they are dismissed. This versatility will be a competitive economic advantage allowing patients to be dismissed in as little as 3 days.
PRTK's compound is broader sprectrum , covering some Gram negs that now require two antibiotics in hospital (that do not have an oral option) and therefore a longer time in hosptial (5-7 days)
The cheapest competing molecule is the generic zyvox (linezolid) Unfortunately, it is associated with Serotonin Syndrome in patients taking SSRIs.
RGNX
has Two Ph1/2 readouts in late 2018:
*Wet AMD
*Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia (HOFH)
Cash runway extends thru 2020.
Out-licensed its NAV technology for 20 different potential therapeutics.
*put on permanent watchlist
EGRX is at earliest a H-2 2018 story.
8/18 Fulvestrant Ph3 study will be read out. This is Eagle's largest pipeline opty. It's administration benefits may make it
an attractive target for Sanofi. By the time it could be approved
in 2019, generics will have eroded SNY revenues for this compound.
12/18 Ryanodex Ph3 exertional heat stroke data will be read out, unless there is another stampede at hajj.
8/18 If there is another stampede at hajj, this trial is screwed. As for myself, I will be praying to the gods of population control, holding my breath and crossing my toes for another stampede.
CLNS
The merger of Colongy Capital, Northstar Realty& Norstar Asset Management combined three 2Bn entities into ONE whose MC has fallen
to 3Bn
Operating performance since the merger has been poor
There are now 3 operating divisions:
* Industrial
* Digital Infrastructure
* Europe
The healthcare and hospitality assets are being discarded
NAV for retained verticals is $10.81 while the stock trades at less than $6
What might boost stock price?
* Evidence of cost cutting as a result of discarded verticals
* Share repurchase
* Insider buying
Next ex-div will be late March.
STXS is the magnetic catheter company. Is that enough?
2017 procedures grew, the first time this happened since 2012.
Operating income went positive in 2017, primarily because new management paid themselves less than the old management team.
has 1% of a 4Bn market that is growing 10%/year. Leader in the market is a division of JNJ called Webster Antisense.
Looks like massive warrant overhang. There will probably be another reverse split.
I'm with you. There's going to be some fear next week as Powell's first FOMC meeting approaches the following week.
AVDL
difficulty enrolling patients for its Ph3 narcolepsy study pushes this story out to 2019
When/if their sodium oxybate treatment successfully reads out, AVDL would be poised to take some of JAZZ 1Bn xyrem blockbuster revenues.
Their recently in-licensed and previously approved nocturia drug is their near-term focus. They must complete another ph3 study and prepare for its commercial launch
The nocturia treatment will likely be launched 2Q2018. I'm doubtful that it will contribute significantly to the bottom line
in 2018.
ESPR
read out excellent Ph3 results for their oral LDL-C treatment
more data will be read out in May
cash runway thru 2019
plans to submit NDA in Q1 2019 and apply to MAA in Q2 2019
If approved, treatment will likely have preferred economics over currently approved PCSK9 treatments.
Seemingly lots of upside here. Put on daily watchlist.
ZYNE
will study synthetic cannabinoid in a Ph3 fragile X experiment. This garbage flies free from the entourage effect.
In the Ph2 open label study, the primary endpoint failed. Consequently, they are switching focus to the secondary endpoint.
Cash runway extends well into 2019
Watch for difficulty enrolling their target 200 subjects.
I look forward to any shorting opties this presents.
I bought 1/5 position of CDLX @ 16.95
I may scalp out of it for daily bread.
I also may add
TGB
British Columbia wildfires have impacted the Gibraltar Mine.
Operating costs at this mine are 1.99/lb
At 3.15 USD/lb Rev would be 299mn and EBITDAX would be 93mn
TGB should trade 1.18 - 1.59 in 2018 based on life of Gibraltar Mine, not counting its Florence project.
Set alert for 1.03 to watch.
CDLX (follow-up)
TAM for direct digital marketing is 11Bn.
70% of all consumer payments were electronic in 2017
CDLX buys data from 2000 Financial Institutions (FIs). There are
over 10,000 FIs collecting this information.
Data shows that CDLX type advertising is over 10x more effective than FB/GOOG type advertising.
will report 4q17 on 3/19/18. On track to reduce net loss by 50% over 2016.
DERM
Failed 2 Ph3 Trials on 3/5/18 in Acne indications. There was no
salvageable data from these trials
As of 3/31/17 Cash equaled 551mn
Next milestone will 6/30/18 PDUFA for hyperhidrosis. This excessive
sweating treatment is a relatively small opty and there is more than a little uncertainty whether they will gain approval.
In 2019 they will read out a Ph2 study for atopic dermatitis.
Always be skeptical of acne treatments aimed at reducing sebum.
The leading acne program is now owned by Cassiopea, an Italian company trading in Switzerland. If this gets a crosslisting IPO
in the U.S., watch it closely.
I will consider playing a run-up into the 6/18 PDUFA, if I can buy
at less than ~9.30
PFSCF
has a PDUFA on 4/14 in a rare childhood disorder
Ph3 for this program had a 100% response rate in both the primary
and secondary endpoints.
will be eligible to receive a priority review voucher contingent on
approval. They intend to sell the voucher.
primarily funded by line of credit and the Thomson family of Canada.
* I bought 1/10 of a position today at $1.13. I will sell before 4/14. I suspect that approval may come early
MRNS
2018 has been tough due to delays in Ph2 of its most impactful program.
The Ph2 post partum depression (PPD) study will not read out until late 2018
The delay can be attributed to efforts to maximize the odds of a significant result. They are being very particular about recruiting severe PPD patients
They trying to find a dose that will hasten hospital discharge
They have ATM financing and seem to be intent on financing their way
to an NDA with this facility
Their lead program is in Ph3 for rare protein disorder in children.
This CDKL5 program may be granted breakthrough status in 2018.
SRPT
No longer a speculative value
It has 16 development programs with all the attendant costs.
Goldirsen program is aimed at expanding addressable Duchenne market
from teens to above 21%
Based on most recent Qs operating costs of 320mn, burn will be
~20mn /Q for 2018.
Consider buying any big dip. Many investors love it and are trained
to bid it back up.
TDOC
May be a flu season stock
MC = 2.5Bn May be a buy below 1.9 Bn
67% y/y rev growth in 2017 and will likely be EBITDA profitable in 2018.
MSFT will be pushing TDOC ap onto its platform in 2018.
It's a white genocide stock. Fuck rural americans with a teledoc. Funnel new med school grads to rootless urban elite.
DMCAF
CEO owns IP to ony recombinant of Kalikrein (KLK1) (does company own IP?)
Lead program is Ph2 study of efficacy of KLK1 in patients with acute ischemic stroke. first patient enrolled 2/18.
Ph1 demonstrated superiority over competing chinese treatment
TAM "could " exceed 2Bn
CLNE
reports earnings mid-march
may benefit from increased sales for class 8 natural gas engines
OH, TN, IA, TX, & NJ have grant programs to incent purchase of
natural gas engines
CA raised tax on diesel to incent commercial natural gas vehicles
Congress retroactively extended tax credit for alt fuel vehicles
BUT, the investor sentiment for this equity is horrible. Many burned investors don't want to see any future for CLNE or its mgt.
ACOR
PDUFA is 10/5 for Inbrija, which was previously issued a RTF letter
Inbrija is a Parkinsons rescue treatment that Satan in a Pantsuit
could have used during 2016 campaign.
Inbrija has good perceived market potential; so, I think this could be a good run-up trade and should be watched closely
I
Equity appreciation hinges on value of C-band holdings
Along with SGBAF, owns greater than 90% of C-band spectrum
Ajit Pai addressed Mobile World Congress 2/18 about "next steps
toward commercial terestial use" of C-band.
Looks like a matter of when. If so, buying the first pull-back
after a gap up may be profitable.
MESO
Reported exceptionally good results in Ph3 study treating steroid refractory GvHD.
Accelerated Approval is possible
Cash runway will only take it thru 2018
It may tap 90mn equity facility until partner is secured.
Seems intent on securing partner rather than diluting.
BALMF
As 2/18, value of top 3 projects exceed 45mn MC
Martiniere has a gold-equivalent resource estimate due 3/18
Grasset Ni,PGM & Cobalt asset with resource estimate of 1bn
STARF-partnered project with more than 1mn oz of Au in the ground
Debt-free
*Go-to list should gold price move up dramatically.
Thanks for your response, man.
Btw, I don't have cellphone either.
I have never learned how to maximize my chances with Pinks. But, I've been lurking here and have appreciated your success.
Wrinkles, thanks very much for your twitter recommendations.
I see Wishful Thinking is recommending a new pink this morning.
Do you have any thoughts on ETBI?
RDFN
IPO was 8/17. Seems to be on the downstroke of IPO hype cycle.
Recent results showed y/y Qtrly rev growth = 43%. Full year rev growth = 38%.
Gave soft guidance based on Trump tax laws penalizing NY and CA residents, where a significant portion of their present operations
are now
Diversification efforts include home flipping and mortgage origination.
Good chance of reaching operating breakeven in 2018.
TELL
Equity suffers from the unknowns of how their future capital needs will be satisfied. What rate will they pay for corporate bonds? How much dilution will equity holders endure until the completion until the completion of the Driftwood LNG Terminal
Demand for LNG is growing 11% per year.
The bull case for TELL is that it may be the second cheapest producer of LNG next to Qatar. Proximity to the Haynesville Shale
is projected to make the cost of inputs ap $2.25 per mmBTU. Add
an estimated 0.75 per mmBTU for liquifaction and this can be marketed to investors an LNG project with high potential for profitability.
2025 is the target for full production.
There will likely be delays between now and then. That would be the best time to invest. Until then, I think the price range could be used to short this stock.
ADMP
Lead therapeutic syngepi was approved 6/15/17
FDA accepted sNDA for lower dose syngepi on 2/12/18. PDUFA target
date is 9/13/18.
Teva has a competing product under review by FDA
If a marketing partner is not inked in the coming months, MC will continue descent until a possilbe run-up into the lower dose sNDA
PDUFA
* The lower the MC, the less leverage ADMP has for a substantial
upfront payment. That makes this a poor speculation.
SEMFF
Will begin production at its second mine in Burkina Faso during Q3 2018
AISC will be ~ $560
Mining operations with AISC < 600 are rare.
Put on watch list beginning early May
TSRYY
Reported 1/31/18 37% y/y growth
Asian segment grew 48% y/y.
spun out from Foster, b4 Foster was taken over by AB InBev.
40% of worlds alcoholic bev consumption is sorghum-based Baijiu. TSRYY is aimed at flipping a portion of that. Right now, they claim
to be the only western company with inroads toward doing this.
CATB
Ph2 results for DMD treatment on 2/14/18 were impressive.
Ph3 will begin H-2 2018. It will read out 2020.
The compound is a sythentic combination of DHA and aspirin. (Dr.
Jack Kruse may be right about DHA)
This compound should be worth a minimum of 300mn, yet the MC of CATB is ~40mn
Sarepta's approved treatment is only indicated in 14% of DMD patients.
Cash = 21.7mn on 9/30/17.
When/if financing issues are resolved, this will probably be a buy.
QTNA
IPOd in late 2016
Provides 10G solutions so that various connected devices can accommodate the latest pool of digital content via wifi
Stock plunged in 11/17 when largest customer, Comcast, delayed
deployment of the latest solution protocol.
In most recent earnings call, they announced Comcast's deployment
has begun and that they have received commitments for other 10g
deployments.
Although guidance for next Q was modest, the announcement of additional deployments implies that revs and margins should increase
throughout 2018.
Listen to May earnings webcast.
MIC
Unexpectedly cut dividend by 28% on 2/21/18
Shares now yield ~10%
Using divy cut to repurpose assets in largest division, Intl Matex Tank Terminals. This business is 45% of MIC EBITDA.
This is a sign of poorly managed risk. Oil products must be in
steep backwardation. This division is highly levered and higher
interest rates are causing pain.
Sign of what is to come for highly levered business if interest rate
fears come to fruition.
ALDX
Ph2a Dry Eye Diseases (DED) results for ADX 102 generated encouraging data in 9/17. DED has a TAM of 1.8bn.
Ph2b DED study has been initiated and will read out in H-2.
Other readouts for this compound due in H-2 are:
* Ph3 allergic conjunctivitis
* Ph3 Sjogren's Disease
* Ph3 Non-infectious Anterior Uveitis
As of 11/17, Cash = 47.9M and Net Loss for the Q was 5mn
Be sure and listen to June Q webcast if available.
NGD
Now highly leveraged to the price of gold
Commissioned Rainy River mine in q3 after significant cost overruns getting the mine started. Due to late year Rainy River gold production, total production grew by 13% over 2017. Unfortunately, loss grew from 7mn in 2016 to 108mn in 2017 as a result of getting the mine on line.
Net debt is ~800mn
AISC also grew from 692/oz to 727/oz in 2017
If the production levels do not decline in 2018, share price could reach 4.25 at 1260 -1270 gold.
Use MACD/CCI/VTX technical array to spot reversal.
SAIL
Earnings exceeded analyst estimates in their first earning report as a public company on 2/22/18
GAAP profitable
Grew revs 53% y/y
Grew margin to 81.3%
Seems to manage earnings outlook conservatively. If so, chart should be watched closely for a run into May earnings release.
ELMD
Makes a vest that vibrates at a frequency that assists mucus clearance.
Revenues have doubled from 2013 to now.
Future growth depends on focusing on the bronciectasis segment of their markets. Revs may double again, if marketing efforts in this
segment succeed
EV is 12xEBIT. Medical device companies with similar metrics typically trade at 20xEBIT. That would put ELMD @ $9 / share.
Their sales are lumpy.
RIGL
PDUFA date for lead compound is 4/17/18
Considering uncertainty of approval and commercial viability if approved for this indication, equity seems overvalued. Watch for opty to SS
There may be a better future for other indications of lead compound.
ONCYF
Seeking to relist on NAZDAQ in 2018
Received 86mn in late 2017 from Chinese partner.
Cash runway into 2019
Uses a viral isolate to turn cold tumors hot enough to attract immune response
Lead program is in Ph3 in patients with HER2 Breast Cancer
Chinese partner is studying pancreatic cancer. Other programs are partnered with Keytruda and Revlimid.
* I bought 1/3 position on 2/22 @ .47 I am willing to make it a full position and buy further weakness.
SAND
Engineers finances by both diluting and buying back shares
Increased share count 112% since 2012
Claims to only buy back shares when MC falls below intrinsic values
Streamer that bought an operating mine in Turkey. Leaves operations to Turks. (Ergdrogan ... really)
Look for chart to confirm a buy ~3.50 (BV)