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$80+ oil coming this year?- Bloomberg article predicting $80 oil later this year driven by China demand. Could hit near $100 with another bad hurricane season in USA:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=avVV_bnPDsqU&refer=us
Gilead, Re: CTON,
I posted recently about CTON recently in case you missed it (#35700). I followed their 10Q's quarter by quarter and "backlog" can only mean new contracts signed with customers but not yet completed and closed with title transferred. I don't see how the fact that they have the same number of sites available for sale can be any more than a coincidence but it would certainly not hurt to doublecheck with the company. Based on their siteplans on their website, there is also another homesite that changed to sold in the last week (Lot 96 at Pointe West). So, their website indicates that 3 lots have changed from "for sale" to sold in the last 3 weeks. It appears that the Real Estate market is still alive and well in Vero Beach FL.
In their last 10K, they indicated that the construction period ranges between 120 and 300 days depending on the complexity of the home. One also needs to allow time to obtain permits before starting construction which probably runs about 30-60 days.
Thanks for the link to the rainfall stats in their area. I noticed that typically it rains hard for a day or two and then they have several days with little or no precip. In October, the wettest month that you noted, two/thirds of that rain fell in one day (maybe that was the day the hurricane blew through). Hopefully that wouldn't cause too many construction delays.
OT- I see you show blackjack as one of your hobbies on your profile along with comments about managing risks to your advantage. I'll wager you are a card-counter. I've been counting cards myself for years using Wong's halves count although I have slowed down myself as several of my favorite casinos with good games have told me no more blackjack. I suspect that there are more VMers who also count cards as both endeavors are similiar in respect that it helps to be analytical and quick with numbers. Also the players in both are willing to take rather substantial risks in the quest for superior returns. The stock market is closed today, so maybe I'll venture out and see if I can find a good 21 game somewhere.
Len's wife probably kicked him out of bed to go hook up his gas furnace. And Len got sidetracked ...again.... Len should know its time to fire the furnace up when the water in his coffeepot turns to ice. It's all of 6 degrees in KC this morning. BRRRR
Enter my wag for: 3/4 @ 11:42 AM.
Thanks
bbotcs re: OG stocks, I've been beat up enough this month on my OG portfolio so today is like a breath of fresh air for me. Market could also be reacting to the return of arctic air through much of the country although I don't see that as having more than a short term effect to the market this late in the winter.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-weather-headlines.asp
Pickens Says Crude Oil Prices Could Reach $90-$100 in 2 Years
Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Boone Pickens, the Dallas hedge fund manager who predicted last year's rally in oil prices, said oil could reach $90 to $100 per barrel in the next two years.
``You could work up to that level, $90 to $100 a barrel, in the next two years,'' Pickens said in an interview. ``It could go to $90 or $100 a barrel pretty quick if something went haywire,'' he said, referring to the possibility of conflict with Iran or Venezuela or some other event that disrupts supply.
Pickens, chairman of BP Capital LLC, correctly predicted in 2004 that oil prices would top $60 a barrel in 2005. Yesterday crude-oil futures fell below $58 a barrel in New York for the first time this year after the Energy Department reported U.S. inventories jumped. Oil has fallen 16 percent so far this month.
Oil prices could still decline in the next few months, Pickens said.
``There's too much oil around right now. It could come on down to the lower $50s but we'll be back up again in not too long,'' Pickens said. ``I don't think I'll see $50 a barrel again in my life.''
CTON-I've been accumulating shares in this one as I believe they will be reporting strong numbers over at least the next few quarters. This one has been discussed on this board but here is some more info I found:
CTON is primarily a homebuilder in Vero Beach, which is near the east coast of Florida and about 70 miles north of Palm Beach. The market in that area continues to be strong. I looked at the 10Qs for the last 3 quarters. CTON sold 1 home in Q1, 9 homes in Q2, and 10 homes in Q3 (last reported quarter). Most of their business is presale (customer orders a home from one of their stock plans that is not built yet). It takes awhile for all this new business to show up on their financials since CTON only counts them as sales after the homes are built and the sale is closed and title is transferred. They do not use a percentage completion method for reporting.
CTON delivered 4 homes in Q1, 2 homes in Q2, and 6 homes in Q3.
Their order backlog has grown from 4 homes at the end of Q1, to 11 homes at the end of Q2, and 15 homes at the end of Q3. That is an impressive growth in numbers. Furthermore, much of their backlog is in a golf course development called "Pointe West". They tied up 41 lots there back in april of 2004. Land prices have risen substantially since then while CTON appears to have those land prices locked in which should mean higher profit margins on sales going forward. I calculated that the average sales price over the last 3 quarters was $583,000. Looking at their website, the average sale price of the homes they now are offering (spec and presale) is $644,000. The actual sales price will likely be higher with customer options and upgrades. Last year the average customer increased the sales price by 12% with upgrades.
I have no way of knowing how many projects will actually close in Q4 (numbers should be out by early march) but they should be good. They should easily do 5-7c for the quarter which annualizes out to a PE of 2 or3 for this 56c stock. Also from their website, I noticed that a couple more homesites changed to "sold" just in the last two weeks so business is continuing. This one looks to me like it could double over the next few months, but do your own DD.
EZM, Kipp, nice link to mining companies showing mkt caps, cash flow and PEs. Interesting that of all the companies on the list, EZM has the lowest trailing and forward PE at 7.6 and 5.8 respectively. Also their projected cash flow for '06 is 32c. At $1.26, this one sure looks cheap to me.
OT: seahawks vs the steelers and the superbowl. I've been groaning about the officiating not to mention that a Seattle windstorm knocked out my power so I couldn't even watch the game on my 10' hi-def home theater screen. I found this on the internet which is how the game should of, would of, or at least could of turned out:
OT: The REAL Super Bowl score after corrected official calls:
1. D. Jack gets a TD, no offensive pass interference (Seattle add 4pts)
2. Stevens clearly catches ball, then fumbles but refs say incomplete. Replay shows Stevens catches ball and takes 2 ½ steps, and then fumbles but not reviewed. If ruled catch and fumble, Seattle gets ball near red zone, 1st down (the ball squirted out of bounds when Stevens fumbled, so Seattle would’ve retained possession AND had 1st down if called correctly). Seattle, instead, ends up having to punt. Conservatively, add 3 pts to Seattle (mighta been 7 the way they were moving ball) so conservatively it’s Seattle add 7 (4+3=7) now.
3. Roethlisburger (sp?) broken play on 3rd and 28 throws to Ward at 3 yard line for a 1st and goal. Upon reviewing the play there were clearly Steelers linemen down field looking to block (since it looked like Roeth was gonna scramble). If called correctly and flag thrown for illegal man downfield, instead of 1st and goal Pitt is looking at 3rd and over 30 with little chance of scoring (outside 40 yard line). Take away 7 from Pitt (they went on to score on the controversial TD play, but I’ll give the refs that one… It coulda gone either way and on TV it looked like it barely crossed the goal line… But again, it shoulda been 3rd and 33 and not 1st and goal so the whole TD controversy didn’t happen if refs threw flag for illegal man downfield)). Pitt -7.
4. D. Jack catches a long ball in right corner of field with left foot clearly in and the other foot clearly hitting the pylon before going out of bounds. Pylon is considered inbounds and therefore even though his right foot hits the ground out-of-bounds, he first hit the pylon with it and therefore scores a TD. Seattle +14 conservatively now (4+3+7=14).
5. At end of 1st half, Pitt crossed midfield 1 time and that 1 time refs missed a lineman downfield call (on 3rd and 28) that missed call ultimately gave Pitt a TD. Seattle crossed midfield 5 times in 1st half (including Warrick runback across midfield) and in each and every case, there was a flag thrown against Seattle or blown call (in the Stevens fumble case) that stopped every drive. Both missed field goals would’ve been closer (less than 50 yards instead of both 50+) tries if not for ref penalties, conservatively one could add 3 more to Seattle, but at this point they don’t need it cuz they’re dominating the game.
6. Stevens catches pass for 1st and goal on 1 yard line. But another phantom holding call is called and back it comes. Seattle ends up with nothing again, but should’ve had 1st and goal at 1 with league MVP running back. Add 7 more for Seattle. Seattle +21.
7. Frustration has completely rattled Seahawks by now and even the spot-on Hasselbeck throws a pick after yet another bogus holding call that brought back the 1st and goal at 1(ya, he missed 1 pass in the 1st half that shoulda been picked by Pitt. but the Seahawks didn’t score anyways). Result: Hasselbeck tackles the guy with the ball and just for fun, the refs call the QB for a low block… You can guess by now, the Seahawks know there’s no way the refs are gonna let ‘em play. End result after bogus Hasselbeck foul = Pitt near midfield to start next drive.
8. Pitt runs trick play with Randle El and Ward, where Grant Wistrom is dragged down in the backfield and clearly held and tackled without refs throwing a holding flag (especially after the bogus few others on Seattle, this woulda been a decent time to make the right call in the Hawks’ favor… BUT NO). Pitt gets another controversial 7. With correct holding call, Pitt gets stopped again and looking at 3rd and very long. Pitt -14…
9. End result : subtract 14 from Pitt, add 21 to Seattle and it is Seattle 31, Pitt 7.
RICK, Stock up over 5% today on good volume. Yesterday, the company put out a PR saying it is offering free passes and discounted drinks at its NYC strip club to wall street analysts and suits. Interesting this is being done the day after earnings are released. It seems to me that they likely have some good earnings news to announce and want to show off their assets (pun intended).
Someone else also noted here that they are doing a conf call after that earnings announcement which is also a first for them and also suggests there will be good news worth talking about.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060202/20060202005888.html?.v=1
CFK, Wade, I'm happy with todays action especially considering the market was down. Last Qrtr, CFK sold off on a good earnings report. It seems to be a good one for the saying "Buy the rumor and sell the news".
I expect to see CFK continue its uptrend trend. I would not be surprised to see it flirt with $20 in the next couple of weeks or so. And then wait till the momo players find it. In the conf call, they indicated that same store sales were up 42% and they will only get better.
Research, Re: EZM and the $9.2 Mil credit from hedges. I agree it sounds high but this came up near the beginning of the QandA period in the last conf call. Mgmt said they would be taking the credit for this in Q4. It wasn't clear to me as to why. Perhaps they were crediting back some of the charges they had already taken. The conf call is still available on their website if anyone would like to check it out. Also they discussed bringing zinc production in the second half of the year. Mine start-up costs are estimated at only $3 million.
CFK- It was actually a record quarter:
CFK actually beat the #s they put out in their record first quarter.
This quarter had $140 mil in sales vs $128 mil in Q1.
This quarter had 6.3mil in net income vs. 5.8mil in Q1.
Basic eps was 36c vs 34c in Q1 and diluted eps was 33c vs. 32c in Q1.
In the last conf call they said they expected their numbers to come in somewhere between Q3 and Q1 (22c-34c basic), so these are GREAT Numbers.
CFK just announced a great quarter. They earned 33c vs. 16c a year ago. Sales were up 34% from a year ago. Should be a fun ride up tomorrow!
EZM- It was also mentioned in the November conf call that EZM would post $9.2 Mil in gains from old hedges in the quarter.
I'll look forward to seeing where the earnings actually come in at.
SLGD, Just saw your posts. I was buying out that overhang of 91c shares earlier myself. Also worth noting that:
The stock price is discounted to book value but the book value itself is low as it does not reflect the current value of acreage property that SLGD has owned in Denver for many years.
SLGD bumped up advertising to help make sure their new skin care products got a big push for the XMAS shopping season. They were already doing well but we might just see some excellent #s when new Q results are announced.
Oil shockwave simulation: Blogger's site provides a link to disussions of former whitehouse cabinet officials and national security people. Simulations indicate that a 4% cutback in world oil production would likely result in oil prices going from $58 to $161/ bbl. Iran and Nigeria are current hotspots. Iran alone accounts for 5% of world production. US is particularly vulnerable as it has only 3% of reserves but uses 25% of world production. The blogger likes ARD and that is one I also own. I bought it after they reported a very large increase in estimated oil reserves last year.
http://www.doktorstocks.blogspot.com/
Sodi-bigpike hopefully you did better than I did.
200 shares at 2.45 here
KSWW- Assuming that the latest quarter earnings come in around 25c with the settlement, that will drop the trailing PE from about 10 to about 5. This one looks good to me.
Gold stocks: MSGI, Two that I like are NXG and NTO. Both are currently profitable. NXG at $2 had a 10c positive cash flow last Q and that should be higher this Q. It generates about half of its revenues from gold and half from copper which is also enjoying high prices. NTO at $3.60 is primarily copper but also generates substantial revs from gold mining. It has $140 mil in cash and will be using that to develop a new mine with huge reserves.
NXG has a $400 Mil market cap and NTO a $540 mil market cap so they are not small micros but definitely fit into the profitable small cap category.
TDWaterhouse- Anyone else having trouble logging onto their website this morning?
GV- Earlier, I did some online research into the real estate market in Melbourne, FL where GV is building. It appears that the real estate market there remains very healthy. Melbourne has not seen some of the extreme price appreciation in the last few years that other FL communities have, making it relatively more affordable than many seaside areas. The link below should show the results of a market survey done by the local newspaper. Click "Melbourne" on the map and stats will show for the community including:
*Real estate prices in Melbourne have appreciated 150% over the last 5 years.
*There were 16 sales of existing condos in Melbourne last year priced between $48K and $700K. GV's condos are priced near the upper-middle part of that range which is a good place to be. There were no sales of new condos, which suggests that Melbourne is already pretty much fully developed which makes GV's projects unique. Many people prefer new and are happy to pay up for it.
I believe that GV projects in the area will be successful and profitable.
http://www.floridatoday.com//multimedia/100205housing/2005neighborhoods/index.html
GV @82c- Been loading up on this wadegarret pick myself. Earned 3c last Q and also reported:
Real estate backlog: (all closing by early this year) is $3.2 Mil vs 0 a year ago. Revenues from Pineapple House, a much larger project, will also be coming in this year. With the huge increases in Real Estate prices where their projects are located, I see very large profits being generated.
Electrical construction services backlog is $13.8 Mil vs $5.3 Mil a year ago. That backlog did not include revenues from last summer's hurricanes which should be substantial as well.
Priced at book value and only 60c of market cap per dollar of sales. The SP on this one hasn't gone much of anywhere in years but this year could be the one as all divisions should show strong sales and profits over the coming year.
AERTA, I have looked into this one in the past. I believe that typically most of their decking products are sold through home improvement outlets such as Lowes. Typically they are used by homeowners who want to replace existing or rotting decks so there would only be limited exposure to a new home construction slow-down.
TGB, NXG, NTO and other copper mining stocks.
Interesting presentation on the dynamics of copper supply and demand issues looking into future years and why higher prices will likely continue .
http://www.northernperu.com/copper-presentation/slide1.htm
Canadian stock insider trades. Go to www.canadianinsider.com
Put tko in the search box to find the list for Taseko.
Russell 2000- I see Nuts corrected himself but he made me curious so I looked it up for myself.
Here are the avg. annual gains for the Russell 2000 for the last 5 years:
2005 +3.3%
2004 +17%
2003 +45%
2002 -22%
2001 +1%
That works out to about a 9% average per year over the last 5 years. Mike and many others who post here have handily beat those numbers. Keep up the good work guys and HAPPY NEW YEARS TO ALL!
TGB, I was impressed with the way that the CC was handled today.
They have no hedges and so they should be making a bundle in the coming year with high copper prices expected to continue. Cost of production is also expected to decline significantly in 06. The proposed refinery will be built with debt and cashflow not through equity dilution. Reserves have increased substantially and the value of the prosperity reserves are not yet recognized by the market.
I would not be surprised to see this one head back towards $2 over the next few months (vs $1.22 now).
TGB- Year-end 10K is now available on their website.
TGB- Difficult to figure out what the PR means as evidenced by the S/P being all over the place today. I did see that they have 10.4 mil lbs of Copper in inventory (a huge increase from last Q at 4.1mil lbs). Much of that is sitting at the loading docks waiting for a ship to become available to haul it to a smelter in Asia. I can already hear them using this to make a strong case for building a smelter in the CC. Hard to believe that no ships were available for so much of their production in Q4.
Guess I'll wait and see what the talking heads have to say in a couple hours.
CHAR-Sorry to burst your bubble, but the Russians that are now running CHAR wouldn't have to do anything illegal to get those reserve numbers reduced. Calculating reserves is done by petroleum engineers, but there are many subjective decisions made in arriving at the numbers. After all, no one can actually see all the oil that is hidden underneath the ground.
Take a look at MILL.OB, a domestic OG company that was just mentioned on this board yesterday. They hired a new firm to calculate their reserves early this year. The PV10 value of those reserves consequently dropped from $33 mil in 04 to $5.04 mil in 05 as many of their reserves were dropped from proven to probable or possible or just disappeared altogether. That is extreme but substantial reserve adjustments can and obviously do happen.
Good luck with your CHAR, I was an early bull there and just decided it was a good time to get out when the Russians arrived at their door.
Wade, TGB's earnings are due by the end of the year or they would become a late filer. I notice that the CC is during market hours. Hopefully it will be the reverse of the last one where the S/P melted as they talked. They certainly should be able to make a bundle in the coming quarters with the copper price so high. I have high hopes for this one in 06.
>>Do you know Canada might nationalize CFK at low ball price, as they nationalized other companies before. On the other hand, why do you think Lukoil paid Nelson at low ball price? Do you realize CHAR would worth over $10 based on the same price per oil reserve Lukoil paid to Nelson?<<
You are a funny guy VM. I sure won't lose any sleep worrying about canada nationalizing CFK, but let me tell you how Lukoil can screw outside CHAR stockholders. First though, CHAR is not worth $10 based on what Lukoil paid for Nelson. Lukoil paid $2 Bil for Nelson which works out to about $12.60/ bbl based on their proven reserves. From CHAR's last 10K, their proven reserves are 24.4 Mil bbls after the minority interests are deducted. That would give CHAR a current value of $8/ share if Lukoil paid the same to buy out the minority stockholders interests.
Lukoil took majority control of CHAR's board of directors (and fired the CEO). All they have to do is hire another engineering firm to do a new reserve analysis. Only 16% of CHAR's proven reserves are developed. A "conservative" valuation could find those reserves reduced by half or more particularly since 84% of them have not been developed yet. Now CHAR is suddenly only worth $4/ share on the same basis.
I'm not saying that will happen but it certainly could happen and that is part of the reason why CHAR is so cheap based on its forward PE.
I almost said "OTHER THAN CHAR, please give me a list of oil stocks with a PE of 5 or less". Char is a special situation with Lukoil now having majority control of it. Lukoil could do a takeunder for the remaining shares and if the stockholders didn't go along, just turn it into a nonreporting company and have it delisted to the pink sheets. I rode CHAR up myself from $2 but sold when Lukoil entered the picture.
Valumind, Please share your list of oil stocks that are trading at a PE of 5!
As for CFK, which is a canadian company itself, I suspect the recent selloff is from Nuts and/or his canadian cohorts who have probably been taking some profits over the last couple of days. Canadian tax liabilities are figured based on the settlement date rather than the trade date required by the IRS for USA investors. Canadians can sell now and not have to pay tax on the profit for another year.
NG prices are falling rapidly today. New weather models show that colder weather is not expected to return to the NY area before next week. Very cold weather like we had a week ago is not expected to return in the next two weeks. Guess I won't be buying back the NG stocks for awhile.
Warmer weather returns to New York and those NG stocks and futures take a dive (again). I now focus on New York temperature predictions in trying to hit buy/sell points in energy stocks. The rest of the country doesn't seem to matter nearly as much as how cold it is for those NY traders morning commute to work.It appears that colder weather will return to NY on wednesday next week so Tuesday should be a good day to buy back in.
Canadian capital gains taxed at half the rate of regular income regardless of the holding period! Now that is a system that I wish the USA would use. It always struck me as ridiculous that holding something for 1 day vs 364 days makes no difference to our tax bills but a 364 day vs a 365 day holding period makes a huge difference. And after that it doesn't make any difference whether it is 365 days or 3,650 days, its all the same again. GRRR..
GV- Wade, somebody wanted to unload a bunch of stock as there were 114,000 shares offered at 87c earlier today. I was happy to buy some of them. We'll see tomorrow if the seller returns.
How cold is it this month? -According to Accuweather it is shaping up to be in the top 10 of most frigid decembers since the 1800s. Hey Martha, will you turn up that gas furnace, I'm tired of freezing my ass off!
>AccuWeather.com is forecasting another week of unseasonably cold weather, with the potential for another major snowstorm developing on Wednesday.
The bitterly cold weather in the eastern half of the nation is due to a large trough in the jet stream that is keeping arctic air locked in the Northeast, and northerly winds are going to drop the thermometer even lower, with temperatures forecast to dip into single digits overnight tonight.
The jet stream's trough is going to plunge into the Deep South tonight, keeping daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal, and bringing the risk of overnight frost to regions of South Carolina, Georgia and northern Florida.
Expert Sr. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi says "the current look and pace may bring December 2005 in as a top 10 month for cold Decembers nationwide since the late 1800's." Some examples of the temperature departures for the first 10 days of the month include:
Omaha, NE -- 17.5 degrees below normal
Indianapolis, IN -- 14.1 degrees below normal
Chicago, IL -- 13.9 degrees below normal
Denver, CO -- 11.9 degrees below normal
The cold is widespread -- below-normal temperatures have been recorded from eastern Washington and Oregon south into Texas and up to the Northeast.
Snow showers will pop up across the Midwest today, and westerly winds will spawn more lake-effect snow to the lee of the Great Lakes. More snow is on the way for the latter half of the workweek, but it will not be as widespread as last week's storm that created travel chaos from Texas to New England.
Meteorologist Jon Mabry says a split jet stream will propel a pair of storm systems across the nation. The southern jet will send warm, moist air north where it will collide with the cold air already in place. AccuWeather.com is forecasting that from Wednesday through Friday 1 to 3 inches of snow will have fallen from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes states and into New England, with the potential for up to 6 inches in some areas.
As you travel farther south you will experience a mix of snow, ice and rain across the Appalachians and into North Carolina's Piedmont region, with rain from the mid-Atlantic states to the Gulf Coast. Some areas in the south could receive heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding. Travelers should be prepared for the possibility of adverse travel conditions across the eastern half of the nation.
The AccuWeather.com Winter Weather Center team is forecasting a good chance for a White Christmas, with the potential for a pre-Christmas blizzard developing from Texas to the Northeast during the early half of next week.<