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"The past is not precedent."
RKC, no offense and I don't mean to be picky here, but in what alternative universe would this be true?
OT: Applies to many, many companies today:
Croumagnon: I admire your mental flexibility, your phenomenal ability not to become entrenched in one way of thinking.
One day you're posting that,
"...I am quite impressed by the stock price lately and I am sorry I sold at the $0.7 level..."
and literally the next day you're posting about today's sell-off that,
"...This is a precursor of things to come..."
One day you're agreeing with someone who keeps screaming that we're going to the moon:
"...I agree and it seems to me that the hype alone is going to let that self-fulfilling prophecy happen..."
and literally the next day you're cautioning all us amateurs:
"...but at $0.95 it is way overbought..."
This type of positional contortionism is a mark of financial genius, nothing less. Emerson said, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Trust me, no one will ever accuse you of being consistent.
Go Seek, Dew: This article was also posted yesterday.
I responded in message #17399.
Are my numbers inaccurate? TIA.
"This explains the run up..."
My friend, you have absolutely nailed it this time, the rest of us have been wondering and wondering.
Whenever Geoff Cox is scheduled to speak, the market goes wild!
From RTTNews Article: "If approved in the U.S., the drug is expected to generate sales of $40 million - $50 million over the next four to five years."
$40-50 mil over next 4 to 5 years?
I might be getting these numbers wrong, but hasn't GTC said that ATryn would do $1 billion in US annual sales for the DIC/sepsis indication, and $35 million in annual sales for HD?
I couldn't agree with you more, IMO cautious optimism should be the byword.
Vin, he's not saying that we're going to zero, he's just correctly stating to be careful because there are still numerous pitfalls ahead. Some of the new cheerleaders on board are making predictions that are just flat-out silly, surely you realize that better than most.
"...Really and how do you accomplish that? by magic?..."
Isotope- Nope, magic is not my thing. I was just saying that Friday's close was 0.82. A 10% gain this week would be about 0.90, very possible and not a bad trade. 15% would be about 0.94,much more optimistic but not wildly impossible. 20% would be about 0.98,a stretch and unlikely IMHO but again, unmagically attainable.
All very decent trades. Best of luck to you.
"After you give me your probability, I’ll give you mine."
Dew, I'd no more trade precise mathematical probabilities with you than challenge Ryan Howard to a home run derby!
I meant by the use of the word "real" in estimating the probability of a GTC FoB deal that it exists, it's not absurdly infinitessimal, and while one has to be an quite an optimist to expect it one is not necessarily a raving lunatic.
Dew: RE #msg-35244875.Thanks for the reply.
You've got an interesting thesis, and correct me if I'm wrong: upon approval (a big if) GTC moves onto the radar screen, the street takes a closer look than they ever have before, and they won't like what they see as far as the financial situation goes.
It's very easy for the biotech investor to be blinded by science; I've found that there are damn few scientists on the street but plenty of accountants.
I think that many GTC investors are counting on what you refer to as a "surprise" FoB deal to save the day, and yes, it's dangerous business to count on surprises but it's certainly a real possiblilty.
I think that there's going to be something of a run-up in PPS this week, my big decision is going to come Friday (I still remember DNDN at 24 the day before the meeting and my wife, who knows almost nothing about the market, saying, "Sell it, sell it! ). I know that you don't see yourself as a trader, but IMHO there is a respectable chance of a quick 10-20% to be had even off of Friday's close.
Go: thanks for your answer on the BV Board.
I understand why you referenced one of Dew's earlier posts, and I was familiar with it. I was wondering if his thoughts on the PDUFA date had changed any. His opinion on the PPS if approval occurs would also be appreciated, but I assume that's not going to happen.
The man's gone but certainly not forgotten, I wish he'd jump back in!
Dew, Two Questions:
I know that you're no longer invested in GTCB, but your knowledge of the company is still tops. I'm planning on selling the news on this one, and I'm making the admittedly big assumption that the news will be good.
1. Do you still feel that the PDUFA will be delayed? Any guess as to how long?
2. Any predictions on short term PPS if it's good news?
TIA.
I've got to hand it to you, io_io, you've got that "non-native English speaker" shtick down pat!
(Just kidding, just kidding.)
I see people quoting a $2 FDA approval price and others bashing that as "a dream".
Garza- I hope it didn't sound like I was "bashing", that's just as bad as "pumping". I was just suggesting that we try and avoid both by keeping it real. No sinister conspiracies here, I'm afraid.
A two buck price on approval is possible, I suppose, but that's stretching it, IMHO. I was responding to a poster who also predicted five bucks in a month!
Exuberance is the spice of life and some irrational exuberance is fun now and again; most of us even visit Stupidville occasionally, but as Vin pointed out, best not to take up residence there.
Good luck to you and all longs.
"GTCB 2.00 after FDA approval, and then 5 after Partnership in a month!"
There's a difference between feeling a bit giddy and totally losing one's mind. Steady on, dude.
Today's Action:
...and assuming an FDA announcement on or about the PDUFA date...
Go-
What about Dew's assertion that the FDA has been routinely missing PDUFA dates?
OT: ...Rubin, the former U.S. Treasury secretary, said during a discussion at the 92nd Street Y late yesterday
LOL. I see where you're coming from, but as a native NY'er I know that this isn't the kind of "Y" you're thinking of! It's very famous, a landmark really, primarily a Jewish organization, been around since the 1800's, off of Park Avenue a few blocks from the park, lots of educational & cultural stuff, and most importantly, a gathering place for not only "regular" folks but the rich & famous. I'm not surprised to see that he works out there!
You seem to be assuming that PFE’s stock will continue to fall between now and the deal closing...
Agreed, it's just an assumption based on nothing more than the general observation that the acquirer's PPS usually declines.
On Friday I was listening to an analyst on CNBC describe the deal as (and I'm paraphrasing from memory here) "two train wrecks merging into one train wreck."
Dew:Just wondering about PFE-WYE deal:
The "real" deal value and the upside for Wyeth shareholders is puzzling me a bit.
Wyeth closed at 43.74, is currently at 45.31 pre-market and most likely will continue to rise.
Pfizer closed at 17.45, is currently at 16.25 pre-market and most likely will continue to fall.
Since WYE shareholders are getting a set amount of cash and a percentage of a PFE share, it would seem to me that the deal will simply get worse and worse for them as each day progresses! I know that I must be missing something...
"Hugh overhang from LFB deal at 0.31 cents..."
I keep telling Hugh that if he'd lay off the mashed potatoes he could lose some of that overhang, but he just won't listen.
Seriously, I don't know the specific company or drug that you may be referring to, but common sense says that all four countries have the ability to produce biologics very cost effectively.
Re: FoB quiz (jeopardy style):
Name two countries people can identify on a map, and two they can't.
GO: As I'm sure you know, "Buy & Hold" & "Daytrade" aren't the only two flavors available! I've gone in and out of many stocks, and actually I admire the ones that are able to do it here. I certainly wish I'd had some dry powder at a dime, because I knew it was a deal there!
What bothers me (and this has been discussed here) are the rather incredible claims of trading prowess that seem to pop up on message boards. Actually, I was expecting someone to post yesterday that they had bought at 0.49 and sold at 0.75!
Anyway, IMO, today's action was to be expected and just fine. At each step of the way a fair amount of folks who bought between 0.10 and 0.60 are going to cash out. My goal is very modest, and I hope to reach it in the next few weeks.
Have a great weekend!
OT: From a WSJ Marketwatch poster:
A light look at securitization;
Young Bob moved to the Mid-West and bought a Donkey from a farmer for $100.00. The farmer agreed to deliver the Donkey the next day.
The next day he drove up and said, "Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the donkey died."
Bob replied, "Well, then just give me my money back." The farmer said, "Can't do that. I went and spent it already." Bob said, "Ok, then, just bring me the dead donkey."
The farmer asked, "What you going to do with him?" Bob said, "I'm going to raffle him off."
The farmer said, "You can't raffle off a dead donkey!" Bob said, "Sure I can. Watch me. I just won't tell anybody he's dead."
A month later, the farmer met up with Bob and asked, "What happened with that dead donkey?" Bob said, "I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars a piece and made a profit of $998.00."
The farmer said, "Didn't anyone complain?" Bob said, "Just the guy who won. So I gave him his $2 back."
Bob now works for Goldman Sachs.
Leftover from last week,still applies IMHO:
JL & GO:
While I certainly agree with the main message of your posts,i.e., we've basically got a good company here with a good product, I have to admit that I still have some lingering doubts about the LEO/LFB transaction.
Back in November when GTC announced the transfer, quantumdot wrote:
"It is never a good thing when a commercial partner who has paid for rights walks away."
And of course, our former fearless leader and moderator wrote:
"Leo says there is nothing wrong with the clinical data, but I’m not sure I believe it."
Both these statements echo my concerns.
"Any attempt to counter the false praise of this company by those who correctly pointed out how management was diluting this company was silenced on here."
Angry Guy: As JL suggested, you haven't been here long enough to "sum things up." I don't think that rational discourse is why you're here anyway, and responding to you just eggs you on, so I'll make only one quick comment on something you said that bothers me and that's it:
No one was silenced, logical criticism was and is allowed and it's been exceedingly severe at times, you're just dead wrong with that remark.
Isotope- My sincere apologies for any misunderstanding. First of all, I was not referring to you when I said that over the years I've been "mildly skeptical" over specific trading claims. There was a daytrader posting numbers that seem too good to be true, and Crou, God bless him, sometimes seems "unbelievably" skilled or lucky. Who knows...
And second of all, I shouldn't have said anything at all, my bad. There are great traders out there, and you sound like you are excellent at that craft. I've read many of your posts and enjoyed them, again, no offense meant.
"Fixed it for ya." LOL.
It never, ever ceases to amaze me how many people on message boards are just superhumanly stupendous traders, able to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top with an almost divine omniscience.
Why, we've got at least two on this very board this morning! What are the odds?!?!
FWIW: We're going to see a small amount of daytraders drifting over from other IHUB sites, trying to cash in on some price swings. Absolutely nothing wrong with that, of course, most of us do the same with various stocks.
The mistake, I think, would first be to engage them in any serious dialogue about the long-term pros & cons of GTC, much less the actual science involved. That's not why they're here! And second, to respond to any wildly negative or positive pumping or bashing.
IMHO, I can't believe that we're shooting up to 2 or 5 or 50 bucks a share, that's just silly. It's still going to be slow and steady from here.
TaLuis: Best to start out with reading the GTCB Read Me First at the top of the board. It will answer your specific question and many others. Best of luck!
Totally OT here!: " And it is OK if there is disagreement. It is normal."
Go- Of course. However, and at the risk of going far afield, as a former teacher a similar situation that comes to my mind is the "debate" over evolution. One might as well debate gravity. Creationists persist in asking what's wrong with presenting both sides in the classroom? The problem is that evolutionary theory is overwhelmingly supported by scientific evidence and logic and their position is supported by myth and emotion. Both sides do not deserve an equal hearing.
To continue far OT, and then I'll stop: We've got an ever-expanding majority of our population who don't understand the difference between opinion and expert opinion, between fact and opinion, between a firsthand logical examination of an issue and what someone on TV tells them is true. It's bad enough when a society has a progressive, generational dumbing-down of the ability to read, write, do basic math, know a bit of history and geography, understand the principles of science and appreciate the serious creative arts; but when it loses its ability to reason clearly, it's screwed!
End of rant.
The reaction to GTC's Atryn news:
I'm interested in what the "popular reaction" to this is going to be. I expect the very large segment of our population who are scientifically and logically challenged and their representatives in Congress will raise their voices. Dew's very funny comment about the escaping goat is humorous to most of us here, but I'd bet that a fair amount of people would say, "Well, it could happen!"
Along that line, I Googled yesterday's coverage from an appropriate journal, USA Today. It's the standard article published in most papers, but here are some of the online comments:
"What a disgusting and needless form of cruelty to animals. First, our society is manipulated to eat what was never inteneded as a human staple , EVER, flesh and dairy. Then, Americans get SO ill from their diets and lifestyles they look to drugs for relief, and now, they will use drugs and organs from the animals they ate that made their organs fail in the first place???
This nation seems to be ruled by something very diabolic considering plant based nutrition is being used to REVERSE and CURE most chronic diseases.
It's very disturbing to think that humans are messing with nature for profit! Our species has truly lost its way.
Forgive us animals, for our practices are the root of most evil." (The "those poor goats" fringe.)
"The studies of Dr. DC Jarvis, MD show that the way we are feeding our animals and growing our foods is changing the ph of the blood of animals and people from slightly acid to alkaline where viruses can thrive. It thickens the blood and causes calcium taken into the body to go into veins, muscles and organs blocking them with hard deposits, instead of the calcium going into the bones. That is why we are seeing so many weak bones and hard hearts.
Part of the evidence is that adding a slight acid like apple cider vinegar reverses the damage done. It begins immediately to unclog veins and dropping blood pressure. It works like vinegar in an encrusted tea kettle brings the calcium deposits into solution. The calcium then goes into the bones where it belongs.
The milk of cows and probably goats is slightly acid when it comes from the animal. Pasteurizing milk turns it to alkaline contributing to our problems. In this engineered goat, you will probably find that the active part that seems promising is the slightly acid component. It would be easier to try the apple cider vinegar." (The scientifically challenged group: he thinks that apple cider vinegar is equivalent to Atryn.)
"I wonder what people will become genetically altered to do.
I love science and its some amazing stuff but the stark reality of how we are messing with everything is a wee bit disturbing." (IMO, this will be the most common reaction.)
I'm interested in what the "popular reaction" to this is going to be. I expect the very large segment of our population who are scientifically and logically challenged and their representatives in Congress will raise their voices. Dew's very funny comment about the escaping goat is humorous to most of us here, but I'd bet that a fair amount of people would say, "Well, it could happen!"
Along that line, I Googled yesterday's coverage from an appropriate journal, USA Today. It's the standard article published in most papers, but here are some of the online comments:
"What a disgusting and needless form of cruelty to animals. First, our society is manipulated to eat what was never inteneded as a human staple , EVER, flesh and dairy. Then, Americans get SO ill from their diets and lifestyles they look to drugs for relief, and now, they will use drugs and organs from the animals they ate that made their organs fail in the first place???
This nation seems to be ruled by something very diabolic considering plant based nutrition is being used to REVERSE and CURE most chronic diseases.
It's very disturbing to think that humans are messing with nature for profit! Our species has truly lost its way.
Forgive us animals, for our practices are the root of most evil." (The "those poor goats" fringe.)
"The studies of Dr. DC Jarvis, MD show that the way we are feeding our animals and growing our foods is changing the ph of the blood of animals and people from slightly acid to alkaline where viruses can thrive. It thickens the blood and causes calcium taken into the body to go into veins, muscles and organs blocking them with hard deposits, instead of the calcium going into the bones. That is why we are seeing so many weak bones and hard hearts.
Part of the evidence is that adding a slight acid like apple cider vinegar reverses the damage done. It begins immediately to unclog veins and dropping blood pressure. It works like vinegar in an encrusted tea kettle brings the calcium deposits into solution. The calcium then goes into the bones where it belongs.
The milk of cows and probably goats is slightly acid when it comes from the animal. Pasteurizing milk turns it to alkaline contributing to our problems. In this engineered goat, you will probably find that the active part that seems promising is the slightly acid component. It would be easier to try the apple cider vinegar." (The scientifically challenged group: he thinks that apple cider vinegar is equivalent to Atryn.)
"I wonder what people will become genetically altered to do.
I love science and its some amazing stuff but the stark reality of how we are messing with everything is a wee bit disturbing." (IMO, this will be the most common reaction.)
"Well we broke the handle of the cup..."
OKY: No offense my man, if tea leaves and TA float your boat then have at it, but IMHO as I suggested last week: