Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hey guys, just popped home to feed the cats. (I almost forgot about them - hehe)
Anyway, I have to tip my hat to Poker for catching that possible backtest. I didn't catch that until I saw your chart. Very observant. It's so funny how when you're totally seeing things from one side, you catch all the patterns like that that prove your case. And of course, vice versa. The downtrend line on both the weekly and daily Q's and NDX chart was the exact stopping point today. Then add that uptrend support line that Poker showed also being the same area and you have what I believe is known as the 'kiss of death' trade. That of course is only a temporary pattern as it might suggest another run down to the lows going into next week. But that's all you're going to get I think on the downside. March 28th is the fed meeting and by every indication, that meeting they should mention what their goals are and they should be about done raising. That's why the market and particularly the financial stocks are moving so well. It's all about the fed. Not the technicals. Good eye, Poker. But I still think you're all wrong on your count!
Anyway, I think that since every technician out there sees this the same way, there's going to be a ton of bets against this move. Any 'push' higher is gonna create one helluva short squeeze... I'll even bet that if the Q's close in the next 3 days (especially tomorrow) over $42, they'll most likely gun straight to $44 and blow right by that $43.32 high. And if that happens, that creates a multi year breakout that then confirms a new leg higher. It could get very interesting here in the next week!
BTW- my YM trades are not only Woodies. I can't help but stick to old habits. So, I probably make more trades than I should. But I just know what I see many times and can't help but get in early and average into trades. So, most trades I make usually end up with about 3 to 5 contracts as I average into them 1 at a time as I see things develope. But using Woodies layout, that then confirms the trades, or even gets me into them ahead of time as I average into them on those signals.
And thanks to GLOE for intruducing me to Woodies. I have completely changed my way of trading thanks to that and I have been almost averaging $600 to $800 a day trading the YMs. It's truly amazing. It's been driving me crazy at the hospital not being able to trade. We have a really nice room in Bill Gross's new wing down in Newport Beach at Hoag from the 7th floor overlooking Catalina Island. But they don't have friggn internet access. I brought my notebook which I spent all weekend setting up Esignal on and Woodie's layout. But then I get there and no access. DAMN! I love my new girls, but as I hold them I can't stop thinking about what I'm missing!
sshhhhhhh! don't tell my wife I said that!
hehe
I got TWINS. Girls! Wow.
Reagan and Gabi. Reagan was 5.3 pounds, a bit small. And boy what a personality. Even for being so small.
Anyway, I just stopped in to check out the markets and grab some stuff before I head back to the hospital. My wife did a C-section, so we'll be there for a few days. I see the market's getting a bit of a sense that maybe Bernanke won't go much further. Remember, if the market senses the end of the rate hikes, it's sionara. We haven't broken out yet, so today could just be a small short squeeze. Without any real follow through, that's most likely all it will be. We'll have to see.
But one thing did catch my attention as I was reading some posts tonight and I just had to correct something I saw from Poker. And don't think I'm starting trouble. I'm not. And Poker, don't get all pissy. But your chart was just dead wrong.
I mean, c'mon. I know you have an opinion. The problem with Elliotwave is unlike any other type of indicator. All other classic add on indicators are very specific equations that can't be altered to fit your opinion. The problem people get into with them is how they interpret them. But Elliotwave's biggest problem, as evidenced by that chart above, is the large amount of human error that is created by the counter. Anyone with an opinion can label just about any chart to fit their opinion as to what they think will happen.
Oh, the holy hell I'm sure I'm gonna draw from Poker on this...Hehe
Hey KovuLK, I'm telling you all, I suggest you go back and read most of his articles over just the last year. I think it was about 3 months ago or so he had a piece about how INTC was going to fall and how he was actually buying AMD. WOW! Did he nail that one! And his whole piece explained FUNDAMENTALLY why. I think INTC was at $26ish then and AMD was still around the high $20s.
As I said, I think Poker and those that think like him, although I understand their arguement, are totally wrong because they don't have the fundamentals on their side. Bob Brinker's past newsletter had the 5 things that make up a bear market. I'm trying to find it. We have none of them and that's why again, the bears I think right now are getting suckered into this again as a bear trap.
I'm also amazed at how wrong people over on (well one specifically) stockcharts are labeling the wave counts. And there in again lies the problem with Elliotwave and most technical analysis. If you don't work it correctly, then it has no purpose other than to look at it from your point of view to justify your opinion. I think anyone on here can take any chart of any stock and look at any indicator and debate both sides as to which way the technicals are pointing their way. When the RSI or Stochastics for example are at extremely high levels, that doesn't mean neccessarily it's time to short. When the ADX is at 40 or higher, many think that means it's time to short.
There's a guy on Stockcharts that has a wave count explaining how the Q's should go to I think it was $38 based on what I showed in my previous post the AWE scenario. The problem with his chart is that he's calling the A wave from the Jan top to the last current low. But he labels that A wave as and ABC itself. WRONG. Each ABC wave in a corrective zigzag is an impulse itself, or 1-5. So that's what I mean with the problems with technicals.
Heck, even Gary B Smith is wrong many times. And he's touted as a technical guru. I like the guy, but I think he proves my point. (as a note, he just called for DOW 12,000 by Memorial Day) When is Memorial Day anyway? End of May? Somewhere around there? If that happens, then for sure the Nasdaq and the NDX are gunning higher. And like I said, if the Nasdaq breaks out over 2350 on a closing basis, it's all over. All this talk between Poker and I is gonna be settled. I think then the Q's gun to $45 to $46 easily by June. Then I get my 750.
I have been doing alot of research over the weekend because as you all know I'm in the camp that says we're about to see a major rally here coming any day now. Don't confuse that with being a bull. I'm not. I'm a trader who goes either way. I don't care which way, I just go with it. But whenever you get protracted pullbacks, you start to reassess your opinion and try to re-evaluate just exactly why you're thinking is the way it is. I'll be honest, I have been 'slightly' second guess my opinion. But that's just natural. After all, you never really know when the market is actually going to roll over. So, I started reading...
Many of you know from you're own experiences that there are some financial writers or people in the biz who write about this stuff that you have become followers of because of their past accuracy in predicting the market. I have a few myself. The really only two out there who I can say truly have been right on are both Bob Brinker and Bill Fleckenstein. Funny thing about those two is that they are totally polar opposites. Brinker is a bull who never shorts the market, but will bail into 100% cash when he sees fit - as he did in 2000. Fleckenstein runs a short seller fund who by definition is most of the time a bear. But I can tell you with absolute certainty from my following both of them now since I think about 1997, both have been dead on in terms of calling the market. I mean dead on. Fleckenstein was a bit early, but still proved everyone wrong.
What makes them similar and yet so credible is that neither is a technician. They are both pure fundamentalists and that's why I always come here trying to explain why so many bears are so wrong so often. It's them that I learned this stuff from. Technicals don't predict anything and that's why so many technicians are usually wrong in predicting the market. Of course support and resistance are powerful things, but beyond that, it's mostly voodoo that ends up costing many their accounts. There's a reason why 90% of fund managers can't beat the S&P.
Brinker explains it very well in his monthly newsletter about how bear markets start and why. They are purely fundamental events. For example, the 1987 crash was a purely fundamental event caused by the Democrats the week before passing the law that banned corporations from deducting debt interest in mergers. The 1998 mini crash was I think a currency crisis thing that killed liquidity in the market and was one of the things that made Greenspan such a star by the way he handled it. (I think though that we're paying for it now with the devaluation of the dollar)
Where does Brinker stand? He's calling for S&P (the only thing he really focuses on) to run into the mid 1300s on a purely growth and valuation basis within this first half and that's been his stand since the beginning of I think two years ago. How many bears have been calling for the end of the market on just about every pullback? I can tell you first hand that the Stock Traders Almanac has been dead wrong and it's why I cancelled my subscription to them last year. Last April in their May edition they were calling for the market to roll over. Funny thing is that was at the bottom of the market. Ooops!
So, that leads me to Bill Fleckenstein. I think that everyone here should read his weekly articles on MSN. Here's the link...
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P146593.asp
He writes under 'contrarian chronicles' in the commentary section of the site. What got me to be a follower of him was back in the late 1990's CNBC used to constantly put him on to debate the total perma bulls who were always talking up the market to DOW 20k and all that nonsense. I can't believe I can't think of his name right now, but the biggest bull was always almost nearly insulting Bill for his negative views and how Bill was a joke for (in 1999) calling for a massive correction coming. The difference between his arguments and anyone who went up against him was that his arguments were always based on the fundamental facts of the overall market structure, and not just because he 'thought' that way.
Well, history proved him right to say the least and the rest that were calling bottoms from Nasdaq 5000 all the way down to 1100 and expecting this ellusive 'v' bottom to happen went broke.
Bill is by means no fan of the market where it stands today. But he does call it the way he sees it. And I think that article says alot about what's coming and why so many people are wrong. And this is from a short seller.
The only time I think we have to be worried about truly entering the next bear market is when both of these guys are on the same page. When Brinker says sell and when Bill says he's shorting again, then you know you better be on that side. Right now they're no where near that.
The reason in 2000 the market rolled over was not just because valuation. It was mainly because of the Fed choking off liquidity and that's the fuel behind every market. At funds rate of 6.75% (prime at 3% higher) and M3 cut by a third, you had all the makings of a fall. Add to it many of the companies not even making money with truly no valuation, it was the perfect storm. The problem was for short sellers trying to pick the top was that you never really know where the top is. Rallys and declines always extend further than anyone thinks. That's why technicians usually end up losing. Not because the technicals are wrong, but because the people reading them don't truly understand what they're looking at.
So, fundamentally, the market is stronger than ever. CSCO for example makes more money today then they did in 2000 when their stocks was 3 times higher. Most stocks in the DOW are more flush with cash today and also make more money then they did back then and most stocks that make up the NDX are in the same boat. Like I said, the money that moves these things has been busy in other areas such as Real Estate and commodities. But as my previous post showed, those are all rolling over which tells you the money is bailing. Smart money follows value and the only asset class out there undervalued is stocks.
Just watch....
Hey Gloe,
What feed are you using with QT? And did you set it up yourself or is there a template like you have to do with Esignal for the CCI layout to match woodie's?
A note regarding bears......
Let's face it, as I've said so many times, even I believe there is a major case to be made for being a bear. There is so much wrong all over the place that just doesn't justify the market going up. And yet it still does.
I have been reading everything and it's just amazing how negative it is out there. Heck, even Ralph Alcamporah (I know I spelled his name wrong) who was one of the biggest 'go to' guys on CNBC while at Prudential before they fired all their technical analysts a few years ago is calling for DOW 8500 this year.
But all these guys were also calling for the DOW to crash last year. And the year before...bla bla bla.
I think Kevin Haggarty (again, I know spelled wrong) from TradingMarkets has it so right when he says that it's all about the 'Generals'. What he means is that it's the fund managers and institutional investors that move the markets. No one else. There are one of three things that they are doing at any given time that moves the markets. And it's ALL ABOUT THEM.
Remember, short sellers are only but a fraction of the market at any given time. I think it's less than 10% I remember reading somewhere.
When the market is going up in a strong impulse move, it's the Generals that are fueling it. When the market is going down in a strong impulse move, again, it's them that are selling.
But what is happening now? Is it going up or down or sideways?
I don't think you can say it's either going up or down. It's just meandering and drifting down. What does that mean for the 'Generals'. It most likely means, based on what Kevin says, that the Generals are just sitting it out. What that does is takes away the fuel for the market, but also doesn't allow it to go down because they aren't selling either. It's all the stop losses getting hit on top of the short sellers taking advantage of the weakness on top of weak handed short term traders selling on perceived weakness.
So, where are we now? I showed this chart last night, but I didn't label it correctly to make my point. The AWEs I think prove we are in a corrective phase that is getting very close to the end. AWEs are only seen in corrective phases (zigzags), not impulse waves. Impulses are the overall wave counts in a direction. For us to go down in a meaningful way, we would have to enter a new wave count to the downside. Waves 1,3, and 5 of a complete impulse cycle don't have equality. Look at the chart...
(the only thing about this chart that pisses me off is that I didn't think of it as it was happening. I've known about this stuff for a couple of years as I've studied Elliotwave theory. But had I been aware of it lately, I would have been able to nail the targets of both that 4th wave and our current corrective wave count. DAMN!)
Gloe, regarding that shamu trade on Jan 20th, I understand what that is. But that got you short right at the bottom. That was the option expir date that killed the market.
BTW, what chart are you using for that?
Hey Gloe, that's what I meant by 'I'm still learning'. But it is fascinating how good it is.
So what the heck is going on with the market?
(there are multiple charts in this post)
As you all know, I've been pounding the table about a monster rally that I believe 'should' be coming anytime. My reasons for this have been documented as mainly fundamental with I think I've shown the technicals backing me up. I believe we are only in a correction phase and appear to be trying to find a bottom. Before I post charts, you first have to understand why it's very dangerous to short stocks..
The population is constantly growing all the time. As that happens, the federal reserve is constantly increasing money supply to allow for all the new people coming into the market place to have money to support themselves. The more money that's out there, the more it trys to find a home to make more money. With 3 asset classes out there pretty much the only places for money to make money with no work, (unearned income), that money usually follows what the masses seem to do.
So, what have the masses been doing lately? I think we all know that it's been pretty much Real Estate. Now, we all know that Real Estate is finding its top. But for the last 3 years or so, and especially for the last year, the money that's been trying to make money has been in commodities. I can't go 5 minutes without hearing an add for Gold. Everyone wants to sell me Gold. With Gold going up, the theory has been that paper assets such as stocks and dollars are a risky investment because they have no true basis for value like Gold theoretically does.
But, along those same lines, the case has been pushed that you should also be buying all kinds of oil commodity related companies because they make money off of a commodity (oil) that theoretically has no upside limit because of world demand and because the places Oil comes from are places that are very unstable. Since the world lives and breathes the stuff, the cost for it should escalate dramatically. And especially since it's theoretically in limited supply and most likely decreasing while the world's demand is increasing.
Everything I just said was exactly what was said in the late 1970's.
Yet, we never ran out and have absolutely no sign of ever running out. But the market knows all. And I think the charts below tell the tale....
You can clearly see that money is BAILING out of all commoditiy stocks. Why is that?
The truth is you can fool some people some of the time, but not everyone all of the time. So many people have portfolios (professional money managers have been pushing this stuff for the last 2 years) that are over weighted in these stocks that the selling you're seeing is only going to get uglier as no one wants to be the last one out the door.
But they need a place to be. And real estate aint it.
The problem here though is that a large part of the S&P is correlated to these stocks and as they get killed, so does the index. And that then leads to more selling overall in everything. The Nasdaq usually gets hit the hardest because as the overall market shows major weakness (based again on the selling in energy related stocks) the technicals seem to break down everywhere.
But it's all an illusion.
Look here at a long term view of the QQQQs. That uptrend line we are about to come to at around $40 or so. Maybe a tad lower around the mid $39s. Until we break that convincingly, the market is going to head higher and this pullback should be a buying opp as that energy money gets put to work in the tech stocks.
Now, to my last QQQQ chart. This is where we are now in real time and I think should be the end of it around sometime this month. Since we have quadruple witching next Friday, it could get interesting. We also have a Fed meeting this month that could tell us if we are near the end of rate hikes. If so, then I think the market is gone. At 4.5% on fed funds, 4.75% would be a nice area to stop and look around for awhile to see what's going to happen. The reason is that with the 10 year bonds breaking out to the upside, the Fed now doesn't have to 'force' it up like they've been trying to do. Slowing is showing up everywhere around us and they have to see it and know it. All they need to say is something in the statement that mentions anything about coming to an end and I think you'll see the beginnings of a major rally that could last into late summer.
But I could be dead wrong and we might be in the throws of a major correction too! But the fundamentals don't justify it. The technicals kinda are starting to show some signs, but they always do when the market pulls back.
AH! But wait! There's more!
This is the second year of the second term of the presidential cycle. Cycle theory might be voodoo to some, but it does have some basis is history. Not enough to make a compelling scientific case, but a case nonetheless.
Typically, the second year of a 1st term is a cycle major low. That was 2002 and we all know what happened then.
This is the second term second year. Don't confuse the two. The 1st three months are the typical low and then the market takes off. The charts look to be doing that. Where did I get this info? This comes from a money manager I listen to on the radio who's been to say the least extremely accurate.
Check out the Q's with WoodiesCCI on a daily chart...
I thought this was interesting how it has been basically calling the tops and bottoms almost perfectly. Almost before they happen. I'm by no means an expert on WoodiesCCI yet, but I'm still learning....
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE! IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!
Hey! I'm BACK!
GEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!! I go off on a snowboarding trip and the whole world goes to hell! You'd think the market's going to zero!
Why does it seem that everytime I go snowboarding the market tanks? I gotta stop going to the mountains. But on Monday, my wife is having twin girls. We have a C section scheduled for 3:30 PST so I'll not be around that much next week. But I had to get one last trip to Mammoth in. I wanted to use my condo up there one last time before I rent it out. I figure it will be at least 3 years before I go again. My two girls are going to be snowboarders, too. I saw about 5 little kids learning out there that couldn't have been more than 4 or 5, so I'm looking forward to that.
Okay, back to biz...
I have to get some stuff back together today, so I'll be around later and I will post a very long post describing exactly what is going on and I think it's very good. I know, I know. Always the optimist. But someone very astute a week ago posted a question to me that I didn't think of regarding what would happen to the market if everyone started selling energy stocks as they were rolling over those into the main market. Well, I think that's exactly what is happening and all you have to do is look at a chart of all energy Ishares and spiders and Oil and you can see for yourself there is a massive rotation out of them. Commodities are DEAD. And it's that money that is going to fuel this rally to come. We might have some more downside as we broke today the Feb low. But this is what bottoms are made of as all the oscillators and indicators are getting crushed.
I really thought this wasn't going to be happening, but because of the possibility, I focused on the June calls and not earlier expirations.
Again, I will post later a post with many charts showing what I think is going on and I think it's very clear and very obvious. So many people have been overweight oil and energy stocks, they are just getting destroyed. And that's what we needed.
So, for now I'll have to put my Beemer 750 on hold. But I think this drawdown is a gift and will be buying a lot of those June $40s and $43s today.
Talk later! I think the case I make is very interesting.....
Poker, that chart you posted has a problem with your count. And it's also shows why Elliotwave is such a voodoo study. So many people mis-represent it, it's almost useless to most. You show the breakdown of how a typical wave count 'should' be. But in your actual chart, where you lable the correction off the 2000 peak as an ABC forming, your B wave should consist of nothing more than an ABC itself. Your B wave as you label it is drawn from the Oct 2002 lows. But there is an absolute 1-5 impulse starting on that date in all three indexes - the DOW, S&P, and Nas. Plus, as I posted before, you have to relabel your counts if a wave exceeds 61.8%. The DOW (61.8% was 10,000 right on the money) is way over that. The S&P (1253 was its 61.8% level and as you can see we blew through that this year). The RUT is hitting all time highs and that means it, along with the DOW and S&P are no longer considered in bear markets.
The only index that has yet to catch up is the Nasdaq. It hasn't even retraced 38%(2638). The Nasdaq fibo retracement levels are
38% - 2638.73
50% - 3114.89
61.8% - 3591.05
Therefore, in elliot terms, those are the targets.
Just look how Nas is holding 2300 oh so beautifully
Yeah, and in Elliot theory, any breach higher (or lower) than a previous wave high (or low) IS a confirmation of a new wave count.
Poker, you're saying that the Jan high in Nas was the 'B' high? So by your wave counting prowess, you're saying that a 5 year high is a 'B' corrective zigzag high? Where you learning this stuff?
Oh, we'll see, won't we?.... hehe
I got a black 750 LI sitting down at Sterling BMW waiting for me that says I'm right.
Oh, Poker... First, I have to say, that I love you like a bro. You're my alter ego on this board. Now that I got that out of the way, WHAT FRIGGN' PLANET ARE YOU FROM??? hehe
Black Monday?
I was driving back from snowboarding this afternoon and was listening to CNBC on Sirius. I was wrong about the S&P's forward PE of 17. It's only friggn 15 times NEXT YEAR's. We have NEVER had a bear market with rising corporate profits (actually double digit growth year/year) and consistent GDP growth over 2%. NEVER. Bear markets are fundamental events, not technical. I know many will never learn that. But even the market is structurally sound as shown by the long trend. Remember this chart? I defy anyone to tell me that this shows a bear market.
Geez. (remember, I'm saying this all in gest. I don't want anyone getting pissy with me)
NEW NASDAQ CHART-- AND IT'S BIG-->>
It's said that it's not how strong you are on up days, it's how strong you are on down days that tell the tale... Well, this is the deal.... Currently, our new uptrend might be the beginnings of a new wave 1. That means we could see a wave 2 correction begin anyday. But the limits would be not as low as the 'B' low. ANY PULLBACKS SHOULD BE MASSIVE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES!!! So, here it is...
And head and shoulders patterns very rarely, if ever, involve completely straight necklines that happen to be major new support levels that were once old major resistance levels, which is exactly what we have in the NDX and Nas. I think we are simply retesting and bouncing within a new channel. But there's even more to it than that. I think that the market is waiting for something. That ADX on the daily Nas chart is very telling.
But, in wave terms. it's actually all very simple and as easy to understand as counting 5 waves up from Nov through Jan, and then 3 zigzags (ABC) down as corrective. I think we completed the C last week and are just drifting now waiting for even the slightest hint from the Fed.
Something is coming in the next 2 weeks....... Something big.....
I personally think we see Q $45 to $46 within 2 months. Maybe far sooner.
Hey Free, can you make out what's going on there? My wife and I think that it's some kind of experiment. But the more I watch it, I'm starting to doubt that. That Mr. Echo guy has a huge part in the story and tonight just added to that mystery. He seems to know more about what's going on than he's telling.
I never thought that show was going to get me as hooked as it has. But it seems to just keep getting better and better.
Torq had a chart last night that showed a very clear H&S setup. I think it was a daily chart. But today completely reversed it.
Make sure he ALWAYS posts the exact time and entry price at that time on each trade. It ain't good enough to say 'I was in puts and now I'm changing over the calls and look, I made $3000 today. It should be illegal". Yeah..
hehe
Poker, you got it all wrong, my bro. Now you're just making stuff up.
Poker, just screwn' with ya, man. I love you like a bro!
hehe
Poker, how in the world do you see things as down? We are clearly in a long term uptrend and clearly in a short term uptrend. As the charts show, yesterday reversed the gap and today reversed yesterday. Both on pretty good volume (above average for both days)
Without taking anything else into account, and just only looking at the candles, we are still marching forward along that uptrend line. Yesterday showed signs of a possible breakdown of that uptrend line. After all, you had high volume and a close near the low. Granted. But it was still in an uptrend. Absolutely no reason to consider anything other than staying long until you saw a confirming break, which never happened.
But if you do in fact look at what happened yesterday, as I've been saying here time and again, there were 'reasons' behind that move. This is where NM on CS is correct in pointing out the games that are played in the market by market makers and large trading firms at the end of the month. These things happen not just at the end of quarters, they happen at the end of months also (usually to much smaller degree though).
GOOG popping off was just a gift on the perfect day (end of month) to allow market makers to capture stop losses. That's what added to the volume spike. But there's more to it --- ah! Yesterday might well have been an accumulation day as GOOG's news gave an excuse to pull bids and slam offers and then use the stops to cover short term shorts and then add to the volume by turning around and positioning for the 1st of one of the strongest months of the year - TODAY.
On a very short term basis, games like this happen all the time and that's why you saw the end of day on Monday sell off. I kinda saw this happening and that's why I posted the probability of that happening yesterday on Monday night.
But folks, THAT'S WHY I HAVE BEEN SAYING TO BUY THE JUNES!
Here's another PnF view from the way stockcharts shows it.
I just started using Esignal today because I got sick of Qcharts not working in the mornings. It's like learning a new language. But here's the PnF weekly chart for the Q's which also clearly shows the breakout...
Count the X's before the current higher X. Each previous high X is a top. The current X we're in is higher than both, thus a double top breakout.
Well, so much for the head and shoulders on the SMH or SOX. I think today pretty much invalidated that.
And take a look at CSCO. Damn. CSCO is on its way to $24 and you can forget any breakdown in the Q's if that happens combined with the SOX putting on it's running shoes.
hehe
Okay, NEW CHARTS--->>
I just realized I cut off the prices on the PnF chart. But you already know where we're at...
I'll post a chart later showing just how important technically today was. But for now, I'm going to play Halo on Xbox live. I'm friggn' addicted to that game.
TEAM SNIPERS!
Nocona, dump them with that price.
Either Interactive Brokers (I use) or MBTrading. .75 per contract on IB with no minimum ($1 per under 5) and MB is $1 per w/no minimum.
That way you can average into trades and not worry at all about commissions.
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
I think the word I used last night was, 'SLAMMED'
hehe
I think Poker's head and shoulders monster has a case of dandruff
2700 June $43s at .91
1500 June $40s at $2.43
Can't you just feel the tension? Which way's it gonna go?
Hey Torq, I never really look at the SMH, but you're absolutely correct. I think that shows a perfect description of what the true definition of a head and shoulders pattern is.
And, we all know, that usually the semis always have a part to play in any Nasdaq or NDX move. I just can't imagine the market moving up if the SMH breaks down. Looks very daunting.
However, at the same time, both the biotechs and financials are moving very well. Those are also market leaders.
My position has always been that fundamentally, the market has been coiling up the valuations now for 3 years with really no movement behind the increased earnings which are what eventually pushes up the prices. It's really funny, but it really does appear that the market has become one huge game of chicken. But a game that as you can tell by the long term chart is being won by the bulls. I think the slow grind up is a direct result of those earnings constantly advancing.
But, if we do in fact break down on a head and shoulders, I think it will be a very quick sell off that will only be caused by stop losses getting hit and will absolutely crash the indicators and oscillators. It will be that move that will lead to the eventual push higher.
It's either we start moving higher now, or that happens. In any case, I am going to stop averaging into the calls I've mentioned and wait for either to happen. I think the Q's are headed for $44 to $45 easily within the next two months, most likely within March. I know, I know, I can hear the laughter now from Poker. But by his stance, he's saying Q $39 before Q $44.
Let's see who's right. Mark this post.
I really am starting to think that there is a major head fake setting up here for the bears. It's gonna be bruttle. I have been reading all over the net tonight and you can't help but hear the cheering from those who believe we've seen the highs for the year. I believe they are going to get slammed here. And I mean slammed. This I think might end up being one of the biggest squeezes in history.
And all the while, as the bears parade thinking this is it, the market's fundamentals keep getting stronger. You keep hearing the news about 'slower home sales', 'consumers tapped out', 'oil going to $100 because of China demand', 'the dollar's going to crash'.....I know, it's all coming to an end.
Yet, what they have forgotten is the Fed. As you've all seen on at least 2 times in the last 6 months, each time the market has smelled an end to the tightning, the market gapped higher and didn't look back until they were proven otherwise. The first was when the Fed governor from Texas said we were in the '8th inning' of rate increases. Oh, I remember that day. I was trading YMs and had 5 contracts open and made 120 points in almost 20 minutes.
Then it was in Jan when the minutes came out suggesting some of the governors in Dec were balking at raising rates again. That is what led off that massive 5th wave the first week of Jan.
But all the news has been how the Fed is going to keep raising into the 5%s with no end in sight. But what would make that happen? Strong housing, strong GDP, strong ISM #s, and all the rest. What have we been getting? Weak housing, 1.5% GDP, and weak ISM #s. Let's see what Friday brings us on employment. So far, it looks like Bernanke's inflation targeting is just about where he wants it. Now, all we need is to hear it from one of them. If that happens, we're gone.
The market is going to run and the spec money in housing is all going to come into the market further killing real estate and doing the Fed's work for them. They know it and you're soon gonna hear it.
Remember, March is typically one of the strongest months of the year, next to Nov. Watch those shorts! You're getting suckered!
What happened to Poker's HAHAHAHAHAH post? How did it get deleted? Let's hear it ALL!
Comon Ken, no one here is calling each other names like sissies. We're just sometimes shoving our opinions down each other's throats. There's nothing wrong with that. I don't mean anything disrespectfull by it and I know Poker doesn't either. Neither of us can affect the outcome anyway so one of us is going to be proven wrong and look dumb. Let the market decide!
Let's hear it all without having to worry about what you are going to think. Geez, do I have to start my own damn board?
Now after reading my last post and studying that chart, here's another view....
I think we're on the cusp of gunning toward that red line in the middle of that pitchfork. But tomorrow is EXTREMELY important!
Head and Shoulders? --->> You be the judge.
Because I call it the way I see it, I spent some time trying to make sense of what so many are pointing out. It's become a major topic lately as you can see by the chart below clearly shows a potential pattern. So, I researched the details of exactly what makes up the pattern, because like so many other things in this biz, there's more to it than meets the eye. Below the chart are links to sites that explain the details of what the chart shows so you can be the judge. It's definitely a possibility. But I think it's the bear's only hope. But remember, I stand by my point of view because the fundamentals are behind me and don't support this pattern's potential outcome. Usually a head and shoulders pattern happens because something is overvalued and the smart money is bailing because they know it. We don't have that here. But, it is what it is. You be the judge......
Again, learn for yourself and decide whether the chart above meets the pure technical definitions from the websites below...
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/headShouldersTop.html
http://www.virtonadvisor.com/eng/drawing_tool_head_n_shoulders
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm
http://www.trade10.com/Head_Shoulders.html
http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/h/headshoulders.asp
I know this sounds very repetitive, but tomorrow is going to be a key day technically. Today we are hitting that uptrend line right at $40.92 or so on the Q's. I thought it would take at least 2 days for that to happen. But it looks like we get it all in one day.
By the posts and comments on TV and all around the web, it's obvious this action is definitely bringing in a lot of fear into the markets. And that's the best thing that can happen for a sharp move higher.
I'm telling ya'll, watch those shorts!
Yes, those retraces are what you said. The whole idea behind the 61.8% level as being key is that usually when you violate that level, you are usually then starting a new trend and are not getting an extended pullback beyond 50%. It's not 100%, but the more you watch it, (or even backtest it), you'll see that it usually works that way.