AI
Saturday, March 11, 2006 11:58:33 AM
A note regarding bears......
Let's face it, as I've said so many times, even I believe there is a major case to be made for being a bear. There is so much wrong all over the place that just doesn't justify the market going up. And yet it still does.
I have been reading everything and it's just amazing how negative it is out there. Heck, even Ralph Alcamporah (I know I spelled his name wrong) who was one of the biggest 'go to' guys on CNBC while at Prudential before they fired all their technical analysts a few years ago is calling for DOW 8500 this year.
But all these guys were also calling for the DOW to crash last year. And the year before...bla bla bla.
I think Kevin Haggarty (again, I know spelled wrong) from TradingMarkets has it so right when he says that it's all about the 'Generals'. What he means is that it's the fund managers and institutional investors that move the markets. No one else. There are one of three things that they are doing at any given time that moves the markets. And it's ALL ABOUT THEM.
Remember, short sellers are only but a fraction of the market at any given time. I think it's less than 10% I remember reading somewhere.
When the market is going up in a strong impulse move, it's the Generals that are fueling it. When the market is going down in a strong impulse move, again, it's them that are selling.
But what is happening now? Is it going up or down or sideways?
I don't think you can say it's either going up or down. It's just meandering and drifting down. What does that mean for the 'Generals'. It most likely means, based on what Kevin says, that the Generals are just sitting it out. What that does is takes away the fuel for the market, but also doesn't allow it to go down because they aren't selling either. It's all the stop losses getting hit on top of the short sellers taking advantage of the weakness on top of weak handed short term traders selling on perceived weakness.
So, where are we now? I showed this chart last night, but I didn't label it correctly to make my point. The AWEs I think prove we are in a corrective phase that is getting very close to the end. AWEs are only seen in corrective phases (zigzags), not impulse waves. Impulses are the overall wave counts in a direction. For us to go down in a meaningful way, we would have to enter a new wave count to the downside. Waves 1,3, and 5 of a complete impulse cycle don't have equality. Look at the chart...
(the only thing about this chart that pisses me off is that I didn't think of it as it was happening. I've known about this stuff for a couple of years as I've studied Elliotwave theory. But had I been aware of it lately, I would have been able to nail the targets of both that 4th wave and our current corrective wave count. DAMN!)
Let's face it, as I've said so many times, even I believe there is a major case to be made for being a bear. There is so much wrong all over the place that just doesn't justify the market going up. And yet it still does.
I have been reading everything and it's just amazing how negative it is out there. Heck, even Ralph Alcamporah (I know I spelled his name wrong) who was one of the biggest 'go to' guys on CNBC while at Prudential before they fired all their technical analysts a few years ago is calling for DOW 8500 this year.
But all these guys were also calling for the DOW to crash last year. And the year before...bla bla bla.
I think Kevin Haggarty (again, I know spelled wrong) from TradingMarkets has it so right when he says that it's all about the 'Generals'. What he means is that it's the fund managers and institutional investors that move the markets. No one else. There are one of three things that they are doing at any given time that moves the markets. And it's ALL ABOUT THEM.
Remember, short sellers are only but a fraction of the market at any given time. I think it's less than 10% I remember reading somewhere.
When the market is going up in a strong impulse move, it's the Generals that are fueling it. When the market is going down in a strong impulse move, again, it's them that are selling.
But what is happening now? Is it going up or down or sideways?
I don't think you can say it's either going up or down. It's just meandering and drifting down. What does that mean for the 'Generals'. It most likely means, based on what Kevin says, that the Generals are just sitting it out. What that does is takes away the fuel for the market, but also doesn't allow it to go down because they aren't selling either. It's all the stop losses getting hit on top of the short sellers taking advantage of the weakness on top of weak handed short term traders selling on perceived weakness.
So, where are we now? I showed this chart last night, but I didn't label it correctly to make my point. The AWEs I think prove we are in a corrective phase that is getting very close to the end. AWEs are only seen in corrective phases (zigzags), not impulse waves. Impulses are the overall wave counts in a direction. For us to go down in a meaningful way, we would have to enter a new wave count to the downside. Waves 1,3, and 5 of a complete impulse cycle don't have equality. Look at the chart...
(the only thing about this chart that pisses me off is that I didn't think of it as it was happening. I've known about this stuff for a couple of years as I've studied Elliotwave theory. But had I been aware of it lately, I would have been able to nail the targets of both that 4th wave and our current corrective wave count. DAMN!)
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