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Looking at S&P for 1 month chart to judge mood of market you would expect next up day by Thursday worst case. Expand that to 6 month chart, and one would be running for the hills.
I am looking for recent market behavior to outweigh previous 5 months of trading patterns.
Not overly worried yet since Banks are not acting extra badly on FED news. Call me when selling is over <g>
A close over 910 Cash SPX woudl suit me fine...
Friday is options expiry. Do you think today's decline will be followed by delayed rally tomorrow or does market have a lot of pent up selling to take care of max pain.
My son worked for them one summer when he was homefrom college
I hope it wasn't in accounting dept <vbg>.
It looks like a lot of Naz gamblers dominating market this morning. Pros are waiting for FED decision.
Any clairvoyants out there going to tell me where market will be at tomorrow <g. I am surly not investing any money on today's action.
the Wilshire 5000 tends to lead
the Nasdaq by a few days.
NDX futures up 4.5 pts maybe tomorrow is your few day delay.
News from ADRX If they don't take out and shoot this thing below 52W low of $16 between 8:30 and 9:30 I am going short. $15 M out of $105 in 2 yr old aged receivables just doesn't go unnoticed by CFO and auditors without some serious effort to look the other way.
Andrx Announces Internal Investigation Regarding Aging of Certain Accounts Receivable
BUSINESS WIRE - August 12, 2002 17:30
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla., Aug 12, 2002 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Andrx Corporation (Nasdaq:ADRX) today announced that, as a result of its internal audit process, management has learned that an employee of one of its subsidiaries appears to have altered certain accounting records pertaining to accounts receivable balances and aging relating to its pharmaceutical and distribution operations, thereby potentially affecting Andrx's allowance for doubtful accounts. Andrx is actively investigating the matter, but does not believe that the employee's actions will impact the Company's business or financial condition in any substantial manner. Based upon its investigation, it appears that the Company's previously announced net accounts receivable of $103.6 million as of June 30, 2002, may have been overstated by as much as $15 million relating to the period from January 1, 1999 to date. These amounts represent less than 1% of the Company's approximate $2 billion of net product sales during the total relevant period. Determination of the final amount of net accounts receivable will be subject to completion of the Company's investigation.
Andrx anticipates that it will request a five-calendar day extension to file its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2002. Such report shall reflect the Company's determination as to how to proceed, including the effect, if any, on certain prior reported periods.
As previously announced, as of June 30, 2002, the Company had approximately $390 million in working capital, $630 million in total stockholders' equity and no long-term debt.
I'd like to see some fried bears for a while.</I
I was getting tired of boxing market with hedged stocks whose measurable declines would only last for 30-40 minutes at end or beginning of day only to jacked right back up by short covering over the last 2 weeks.
I smelled my fur burning Thursday as drugs and biotech kept rising faster then any other sector. So I am long just about every biotech whose chart is pointing up in last week. Still Short NVDA, QLGC and LVLT hedged SNDK CREE UVN and ZRAN.
I think charts on McCellan and Summation Index say we ready to rock and roll.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
What's up with DIAN Biotech and drugs up today AMGN MRK JNJ IDPH EMAN CEPH & even IMCL. <g>
IDPH and AMGN
Add CEPH ENZN and ADRX and you got a biotech Q <g>
Is it a good thing that CME OI is at record levels or a bad thing. Sep 9 2001 was also a record level of OI.
I hoping that a slim majority of that OI is short that will have to cover driving prices higher.
http://www.cme.com/news/shownews.cfm?NewsItem=000AF1FD-1F81-1D54-9F0F80EDBEFB0000
latest news
CME Sets Fifth Exchange-Wide Open Interest Record and Euro FX Options Also Set Five Consecutive Records
CHICAGO, Aug. 9, 2002—For five consecutive sessions, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) has posted exchange-wide open interest records, beginning on Aug. 2 with 18,989,272 positions and reaching 19,607,853 positions yesterday, Aug. 8. The most recent previous record was on Aug. 7 at 19,449,906 positions.
In addition, Euro FX options on futures have set five consecutive open interest records, beginning on Aug 2 with 87,952 positions and reaching 92,090 positions on Aug. 8. The previous record on Aug. 7 was 91,130 positions.
Open interest represents the number of futures and options on futures contracts outstanding at the close of trading each day. Open interest can be seen as a measure of the use of risk management instruments by institutions and individuals with a long-term stake in the markets, as well as the liquidity of a contract.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (www.cme.com) is the largest futures exchange in the United States and the second largest exchange in the world for the trading of futures and options on futures. As an international marketplace, CME brings together buyers and sellers on its trading floors and virtually around the clock on its GLOBEX electronic trading platform. CME offers futures contracts and options on futures primarily in four product areas: interest rates, stock indexes, foreign exchange and commodities. The exchange moves about $1.6 billion per day in settlement payments and manages $27.4 billion in collateral deposits. CME is a wholly owned subsidiary of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc.
Quick look at numbers from this web site by changing the 4 digits at end.
http://www.ici.org/facts_figures/trends_0300.html
It indicates a bottom in MF funds in Sep 01 at $6.4 T and $ 6.6 T in Jun 02.
Peaks? at $7.3 T in Mar 00 & $7.2 T in Jan 01
Sort of debunks the idea of assets totally disappearing they just move around a lot.
RE recent equity inflows and money market outflows.
Let's hope LT investors stick to their guns and don't get too jumpy and change course again. Something tells me outflow trend of 3 months could possibly become net positive inflows for 3 months. This would be type of market situation impossible to short and make money at and also hard for street to distribute large amounts of stock into assuming we are going much lower.
Do your Barrons charts go back earlier time frames besides last 3 months.
El Paso Corp.'s (NYSE:EP - News) Chairman and Chief Executive William Wise, for one, had no problem putting his name to financial statements....
Other power companies also intend to meet the deadline, including American Electric Power Co. (NYSE:AEP - News), Aquila Inc. (NYSE:ILA - News), Calpine Corp. (NYSE:CPN - News), Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE:DUK - News), Reliant Energy Inc. (NYSE:REI - News) and Xcel Energy Inc. (NYSE:XEL - News).
Not every stock is going to go down in next month or two. In fact, those issues which are deemed safe by whatever paradigm will bear the bulk of new investment monies.
As tech started to crumble in 2000, I was very wary of investing in banks, insurance and consumer cyclicals which picked up a lot of new money coming onto market. Let's just say I become a better investor. Personally, I like DUK and EP and would have to expect them to make up lost ground if S&P is going to retrace it lost recently.
Are you still as bearish as you were a few weeks ago?
Outside of tech, I am pretty bullish. Drugs and biotechs are poised to revisit 52W highs. Mutual and pension fund managers still have monies to invest and if one puts head in the sand for a month or two banks and insurance can rise as well to have market retest 1100 S&P in next month.
I have no forecast for NDX or COMP but if NDX tosses out some tech stocks and puts biotech in it will certainly rise as well.
3. Few IPO in the near future. Some buybacks now, and probably more if the rates are cut. Net result - more money chasing less stocks = bull market (according to TrimTabs definition).
Add limited insider selling to the list.
This is how I see it and am playing it.
They can take this market back up to 1080 S&P very easily by just plying money into drug and biotech very aggressively which will make S&P and NDX go higher. Almost every other sector gets dragged along begrudgingly by technical chart calls like HAL. They may be some hell to pay if 3Q numbers don't make it in early Oct. IMO the economy is weak but consumer will spend if he things he's worth more in 30 days from now.
to scare the crap outta the bears..
I would say bears are pretty much have blanked in the woods already.
You and your V.P Cheney. Why not release those closed energy white house meeting Mr. President and Mr. V.P.??? Or are you knee deep in horse sh*t too???
Calm down or your going to have the Secret Service at your doorstep. <g>
There's an election in Nov. that going to put a lot of exCongressmen and staff in new Homeland defense slots. Think carefully and decide how one can profit from WCOM demise. I got my FON long position. If I thought really hard of some way that $ 44 B in bonds, accounts payable and tax liabilities that are going up in smoke can lead to something good, I would let you know.
Right now I got Springsteen's "The rising" cranked up and it not bad for record from an aging baby boomer. Nary a weak filler track in the bunch.
How convienent to disclose balance of loss until individuals have become clown long again.
I not crying over this spilt milk but Qwest will be next horror story.
My wife is going to take some graduate classes at Seton hall University this fall. I will have to see if there is any other buildings endowed by corporate "icons". The Gym was named after Robert Brennen of First Jersey Securities penny stock hypster now in jail and now I find out recently that another building was named after TYCO's Kowalski. <g>
Well I hope they end up losing all the money, including their mansions
If Michael Milken, Robert Brennen and John Delorean are any examples how white collar crimnals fair, don't hold your breath looking for restitution.
John DeLorean was holed up in his NJ mansion for at least 10 years aftre his fraud until they auctioned the place I think last year. I always used to bump into him at local supermarket and I would say hello.
OH NO! not the dreaded HAL buy signal. <g>
RE charts
We are back at S&P resistance level of 905 again. We swooned after closing at "911" on 7/31.
Bulls have got to show higher highs and higher lows or we are in trouble again.
PS we have retail and most tech missing from the runup so remainder of sectors have been picking up the slack.
This may be your reversal day. Are you still short.
I just don't like banks being pumped. I don't think IMF is coming up with $30 B in aid to Brazil, which is indirect aid to large banks, very often.
Pulled my SPX PUt for 5 pt loss when 870 hit. Good luck. In daily charts, today will look like day 2 of a rally. Most shorts, myself included, have tight stop loss in place. Tomorrow is another day.
Pension fund rebalanceing will continue for a while in all the safe names.
Yes you are right NVDA call next week.
If you could give me a symbol I will take a look at it. I am not smart enough to play BKX index so I am highly inclined not too do more then take a look at it.
My feeling is they put pressure on banks like if they don't cut rates the bankruptcy of C JPM et al is assured. I see BKX under pressure then ralling on FED announcement.
Zeev I am thinking NVDA gets a bounce as they clarify their fiscal position AH today. Some uncertiancy has to be removed and I am going long NVDa this afternoon. It is ironic that I have been railing on this stock for so long and now I am going long. I see then writing off $80-85 M in XBox crap and hopefully not much more otherwise I am out tomorrow.
Your thoughts.
At least we agree on a drop, there is always buying when we get close to 8000 or 835 S&P.
Are you part of the feudal clan that claims 3800 right around corner.
I think we don't get rally until FED cuts rate on Tues. IMO slow melt like last 3 day drop to solidify need for FED to cut rates on TUES.
I am back to hedged but more short then neutral. I still hold a few short PUTs from Jul 24 and short Calls from last week and some new ones from this morning. I not closing anything until significant profits occurs. Happy with time premium decay with my bias for market going down until TUES.
Followed your thinking on CREE EXPE SPX PUTS aj not all wrong <g>
LVLT not dissapointing today
I had a esignal outage at open that made me do trades semi blind.
PS I said I would get out if market gapped and went below 8300.
think it has an 88% reliability and a 66% chance of reaching it's target. That's probably a bit better than your wild guess.
I get back to you when it has .98 to .99 reliability and a greater then 95% chance of happening to tell you that DOW 3800 is coming whence I post from the bomb shelter with the survival rations and Gold bullion.
Until then 88% reliability is just plain fear mongering IMO.
I assume aj has got a advanced degree in math or physical sciences to make the judgement that DOW 3800 has a high level of probability of occurring just from the charts. Also, I guess he was around in 1929, no better yet after the dutch tulip craze of 17th Century to personally seen how stocks trade when economy is in real recession.
Do you think aj has been staring at his stock charts too much and needs a little timeout.
OT
"In a major trade involving the past two Eastern Conference champions, the Philadelphia 76ers sent Mutombo to the New Jersey Nets on Tuesday for forward Keith Van Horn and center Todd MacCulloch."
Bring on those Lakers in the finals. MacCulloch was just plain abused by Shaq and Van Horn would disappear from the offense for large periods of time. This years finals was painful to watch. I am hoping for a much better showing next time around.
PS keep dreaming about DOW 3800. I will remember to buy some apples and pencils from you if we get there.
Crash Value lines up with the H&S target of 3800 on the Dow. It is a bit more optimistic on the SPX, having around 490
Come on calling DOW 7000 seemed like a stretch but MA's of charts starting from late 1980's did allow one to opine that call.
My only complaint is that todays S&P composition is not comparable to composition of S&P in 1982. Why don't you go back and chart a basket of stocks like IBM GE XRX et al or Wilshire 5000 or some measure that hasn't radically changed as much. Better yet chart G DD PG CL Goodyear or some companies that do the same thing as they did 20 years ago but much more profitably as I imagine that they do.
Q is tanking too. The end of telecom stocks will bad balance sheets is just about over. You can't have a sound market with all these under $5 zombies clogging up the daily volume numbers. The strong surviving carriers will pick over the carcasses of the bankrupt.
I am long FON and short LVLT.
at this rate they'll have to gap it just to get back to today's HOD. -bg-
I am donning bear suit if we open above 8300 and sell below it in AM.