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"FDA upcoming list? Best site for checking? ideas?"
IHUB itself has the best biotech board in the known universe, Biotech Values.
Look at the top of the page, Calendars.
Reality-
I think that you and I were over there on the same thread for a while, trying to get an "it's everyone's fault but mine" type person to take some responsibility for his own actions, in this case buying pinks.
We both gave up; as you say, it's not worth the grief!
It is the point of your story- that you blame others for your own foolishness- you just don't get it.
Best of luck, bye.
Do you actually think that that little story shows you in a good light, or will make people feel sorry for you?
"If you haven't the strength to impose your own terms upon life, you must accept the terms it offers you." -TS Eliot
Or if that's a bit too deep for you, try:
"There's a sucker born every minute." -PT Barnum
FWIW, IMHO: Another wave of a relatively low-priced buying opportunity is coming around for many regional banks.
Not day trades or even week trades; but if held for a few months potential 2 or 3-baggers.
Best of luck to all here.
"crossing fingers on this one as it was done on a whim... i should probably stop doing that.... whats it called? patience?"
No, it's called preparedness.
"Luck favors the prepared." -Louis Pasteur
RE: ZZ. "...that news was announced on a friday..."
8-K just filed Tuesday. Not in the stock so no time to read through, but IMO the details just sunk in.
RE: ZZ. "wow, thats a massive drop on no news..."
They announced last week that they're issuing about $350 mil in new senior secured notes, and about $177 mil in convertible-into-common stock notes. My only thought is that the market is just realizing what that means in terms of dilution.
"Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." -Ralph Waldo Emerson
Keep up the great work, Chart. I know that you believe that you are more than merely lucky!
Dew-
RE multiple Lovenox ANDA's:
I seem to remember reading that the FDA itself feels that there is a definite benefit to consumers if the FDA approves more than one ANDA: at least one of the generic drugs will reach the market more quickly.
IYO, any truth to this?
Long-term capital gains:
You must hold the stock at least one full year to qualify for the long-term capital gains rates.
The tax on a long-term capital gain is currently 15% if you are in the 25% income tax bracket or higher and 5% if you are in the 15% or lower tax bracket.
Short-term Capital Gains:
If you hold a stock less than one year before selling it (like most traders), the IRS classifies the sale as a short-term capital gain and taxes the profit as ordinary income, just like money you make at your regular job: depending on your total income, 10% to 35%. Go to the IRS site & see the specific tax brackets.
Tim:
Do you find that there is a tremendous difference between most of the stocks listed on the Naz GM as opposed to the Naz CM, or is it more a company by company thing?
Any different general trading strategies you would use for each market, or again, is it more company by company?
TIA.
FWIW: Out this morning 100K CNO, 2.18 average from 1.40 buy. I'll take it
RE: complaints about VG or any stock. It's worth repeating Teddy Roosevelt's famous quote:
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; because there is not effort without error and shortcomings; but who does actually strive to do the deed; who knows the great enthusiasm, the great devotion, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly. So that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.”
Ken: When you refer to the "members", do you mean paid subscribers to your Stock Seasonality site?
"CNO headed back to .30"
From your post of last Monday: "I am looking for 4dollars+ on my CNO."
Nice to see that some folks are untroubled by consistency.
"CNO declares .05"
WRONG!
Today's release refers to 40/86 Strategic Income Fund (CFD: NYSE), a company owned and managed by CNO. It is not CNO!
"as much as i hate spamming boards, there are expectations
and there are I-hub rules, together they make for a fine line to walk."
You crossed it about 10 posts ago.
"...he failed to mention he would retain $6500 million dollars."
For those of us that know how to count, that would be how much?
"but religious views certainly don't have a place here,"
Thanks, I knew that I couldn't be the only one who felt that way.
Well...as the kids say, "Whatever"-
you have a wonderful day also.
"yet... Im a Professor."
So you say.
Oh, I get it, you're The Nutty Professor.
jbog-
I'm afraid that IMO your last post is so "all over the place" that it's almost impossible to construct a meaningful reply.
Perhaps to move the discussion away from specifics where we will inevitably argue about the interpretation of past events and towards a general view of history and government where we might find common ground, I'll suggest this: we're at least 150 years past the time when the individual personality or personal power of the president ran the nation.
Lincoln's did, to some extent, but obviously he had advisors, cabinet members, a congress, etc. Even Washington had to work within the established bureaucracy though the reality of that word then to now is like comparing a grape to the planet Jupiter!
The president is the CEO of Company USA, whether we like it or not. It's a very big and complicated company. It's about who he hires and what they do, from whom he takes advice, to whom he delegates responsibility. I think that folks are losing sight of this because of their strong personal feelings about Obama.
"Islam is biblically wrong, but at least appear to duplicate concepts within the bible and so apparently are abundantely reaping the benefits there of monetarily wise."
I assume that all these religious ravings that you're posting is making perfectly good sense to you, but to me it's poorly written, indecipherable, rather crackpot, and certainly has no place on a board supposedly dedicated to a sane and logical system of investing.
"Why were Bush's tax cuts bad for America?"
Jbog-
Sorry, I missed your post, I apologize for the late reply, no disrespect meant.
We both know that you don't want an answer; the question is simply a rhetorical set-up for your view of the past. Fair enough, it's an effective device.
Suffice to say that Bush was the most profligate president (I'd be indulging my love of alliteration to throw in "piss-poor" so I won't) in many, many years. Increased spending, soaring deficits, short-sighted economic policies made it awfully difficult to find any real benefit in temporary tax cuts. It was a pork-barrel pigout for 8 years.
Truthfully, I'm just not interested in conducting an autopsy on that bloated corpse and probably will not continue in a point-by-point debate on that subject. If others are interested in doing so, fine.
Jbog, the following is just personal, maybe illogical, but beyond my ability to debate unemotionally: to me, the horrible and unnecessary Iraq War makes a discussion of anything else that Bush did just trivial. The millions of lives affected, the trillions of dollars wasted, the disgrace to our country makes an academic discussion about tax codes seem almost obscene.
I can't get past it, and perhaps this is an intellectual or emotional weakness of mine. It's like the famous line about Mussolini: he may have murdered thousands and terrorized a nation, but at least he made the trains run on time.
Poorgradstudent:
I’ve got a few thoughts I’d like to share about this board and I’m going to support them with the evidence of your own words!
Many of us here are simple folks who enjoy simple pleasures: listening to Rush Limbaugh, watching Fox News, laughing at others less fortunate than ourselves. After a few beers we want to be able to fire up the old computer and just post stuff! You’re making it almost impossible to do that, and it’s not fair.
Over and over since you started this board you’ve been using phrases like, “I’m not clear on what you actually advocate” or “You provide no facts to refute any of the statistics” or “The whole thesis is based upon empty analysis.” It’s enough to give a regular person a headache.
But that’s not enough for you; oh no, you’ve got to lay it on even more. “There is a significant knowledge gap” and “because the answer is reasonably obvious” and the utterly obnoxious “time and again you post conjecture without facts.” Would you give a guy a break.
Not only that, your unreasonable demands are really starting to annoy me. Things like “Can you discuss that?” and “Can you provide data?” and “Can you develop and articulate a thought?" not to mention your ridiculous “Can we please stay on topic?” No, we cannot stay on topic, staying on topic is too hard and it’s boring and as an American I claim my right not to stay on topic and anyone who disagrees is not as American as I am.
That’s it, maybe you’re just not a real American. Please send me your birth certificate.
Oh, and another thing. Your persistent and egregious use of big words; man that is so starting to frost my behind. “Xenophobic”, “salient”, “hyperbole”, “extrapolation.” What do you think we are, walking dictionaries? Where I come from we like little words and we like ‘em said real slow. Real slow and repeated over and over. What’re you tryin’ to hide, anyway?
And if that’s not bad enough you keep takin’ those ten-dollar words and stringin’ ‘em along in complicated sentences: “It’s in my nature to see all the data and the various models of impact so that I have the most knowledge at hand to make a decision.” Say what, fella? Try talkin’ like that in my neighborhood and you’ll get some impact alright.
So I'm gonna see that you're hoisted on your own petard (whatever the hell that is.) I’m sending a copy of this message to the IHUB administrators, my senator, the House Un-American Activities Committee, and your mom. This virulent promotion of logical argument and reasonable discourse has got to stop before it spreads like an evil contagion across the land and pollutes everything we hold sacred, not to mention our wives and daughters. You should be ashamed of yourself.
I couldn't agree more. Very good article.
...What I have believed in, and what I have stood for in these past eight years -- an end to the war, establishing universal health care, closing Guantanamo and banning torture, making the rich pay more taxes and aggressively going after the corporate chiefs on Wall Street -- these are all things which the majority of Americans believe in too. That's why in November the majority voted for the guy I voted for. The majority of Americans rejected the ideology of Rush and embraced the same issues I have raised consistently in my movies and books.
Here's An Oldie But A Goodie:
The market may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried.
Have a good weekend all.
"Sad state of affairs in this country right now."
That is a tough situation, best of luck.
"Figures don't lie!"
Statistician: A man who believes figures don't lie, but admits that under analysis some of them won't stand up either.
Evan Esar, Esar's Comic Dictionary
American Humorist (1899 - 1995)
LOL.
I believe that 153 would put you in about 80th place, I know that I reach that number before lunch every day.
Hang in there.
PGS-
Here's a great little article about the misuse of statistics for political purposes.
You hit the nail on the head: it's all about whipping up the ignorant, that's obvious. What I often wonder about, however, is the knowledge level and/or motive of the presenter. Do they know the argument is bogus? Do they believe it's sound? Is it just their ignorance or is it a deliberate attempt to mislead?
Sex Crimes and Illegal Immigrants: Misuse of Statistics for Politics
Category: bad math; goodmath > statistics
Posted on: January 18, 2007 5:03 PM, by Mark C. Chu-Carroll
http://scienceblogs.com/goodmath/2007/01/sex_crimes_and_illegal_immigra_1.php
Yet another reader sent me a great bad math link. (Keep 'em coming guys!) This one is an astonishingly nasty slight of hand, and a great example of how people misuse statistics to support a political agenda. It's by someone named "Dr. Deborah Schurman-Kauflin", and it's an attempt to paint illegal immigrants as a bunch of filthy criminal lowlifes. It's titled "The Dark Side of Illegal Immigration: Nearly One Million Sex Crimes Committed by Illegal Immigrants in the United States."
With a title like that, you'd think that she has actual data showing that nearly one million sex crimes were committed by illegal immigrants, wouldn't you? Well, you'd be wrong.
After conducting a 12 month in-depth study of illegal immigrants who committed sex crimes and murders for the time period of January 1999 through April 2006 , it is clear that the U.S. public faces a dangerous threat from sex predators who cross the U.S. borders illegally.
There were 1500 cases analyzed in depth. They included: serial rapes, serial murders, sexual homicides, and child molestation committed by illegal immigrants. Police reports, public records, interviews with police, and media accounts were all included. Offenders were located in 36 states, but it is clear, that the most of the offenders were located in states with the highest numbers of illegal immigrants. California was number one, followed by Texas, Arizona, New Jersey, New York, and Florida.
Based on population numbers of 12,000,000 illegal immigrants and the fact that young males make up more of this population than the general U.S. population, sex offenders in the illegal immigrant group make up a higher percentage. When examining ICE reports and public records, it is consistent to find sex offenders comprising 2% of illegals apprehended. Based on this 2% figure, which is conservative, there are approximately 240,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders in the United States.
This translates to 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders coming across U.S. borders illegally per day. The 1500 offenders in this study had a total of 5,999 victims. Each sex offender averaged 4 victims. This places the estimate for victimization numbers around 960,000 for the 88 months examined in this study.
That's the meat of the paper - the rest is essentially a list of statistics about the 1500 crimes she actually studied.
So her argument is:
Of the illegal immigrants arrested for a crime, 2% were sex offenders.
The total numbers of illegal immigrants is approximately 12 million.
Therefore, you can determine the number of sex offenders in the entire population of illegal immigrants by multiplying the size of the population (12 million) by 2%, giving you 960,000.
If you actually pay attention to the numbers and how she's trying to slip them past you, it's pretty obvious what kind of scam she's pulling, but she tries to mask it behind a lot of talk about kinds of sex crimes, and why we should expect the number to be high among illegal immigrants.
Here's the trick. 2% of the convicted criminals who happen to be illegal immigrants are guilty of some kind of sex crime. Not 2% of the population of illegal immigrants. The population of convicted criminals is quite different from the population of people as a whole.
To give you an idea: according to this article by the Minnesota Department of Public Safety, in 2001, approximately 5% of the population of people in state prisons were guilty of sex offenses. The estimate of the number of people in the general population guilty of sex crimes varies - but it's generally cited as somewhere between 1/3 of 1%, and 1%.
Now - the number of people in prison is different from the number of people arrested - so those two numbers are not directly comparable. But it should give you an idea of how different statistics about people convicted of crimes can be different from the statistics about the public in general.
So, looking at real statistics, the percentage of illegals guilty of sexual crimes is probably not particularly different from the percentage of non-illegals guilty of sexual crimes. And neither percentage says much of anything about the number of guilty individuals in the population as a whole.
In summary, Dr. Schurman-Kauflin is nothing but another two-bit racist who's trying to trick people using bad math.
OT: Where we're headed?
Just a brutal climate of fear out there, driving everything, all the normal metrics used to value a company seem to have been tossed out the window.
This is getting ridiculous.
Doubt it, but if it did I'd sell the house, car, wife & kids in order to buy shares!
"define great?"
Statue of Liberty National Monument: a poem by Emma Lazarus is graven on a tablet within the pedestal on which the statue stands.
The New Colossus
Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
"Keep ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
Here's a well-written explanation of why mark-to-market accounting should not be suspended!
Understanding the Significance of Mark-to-Market Accounting
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Barry Ritholtz
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/mark-to-market.html
"Suspending mark-to-market accounting, in essence, suspends reality."
-Beth Brooke, global vice chair, at Ernst & Young
Misinformation, bad dope, and spin seem to be dominating the current discussion on Mark-to-Market accounting. Let's see if we cannot simplify the arcane complexity of the accounting rules regarding FASB 157.
Understand why this is even an issue: Many banks, brokers, and funds chose to invest in certain "financial products" that were difficult to value and were at times thinly traded. If you are looking for the underlying cause of why some arcane accounting rule is an issue, this is it.
In my office, we don't buy our clients beanie babies or Star Wars collectibles or 1964 Ferrari 275GTBs. We purchase stocks and ETFs and bonds and preferreds for them (some clients also own options and commodities). Why? Because we believe -- and our clients have insisted upon -- the need for instant liquidity. Nothing we have purchased cannot be liquidated on a moments notice. We know what the fair value of these holdings are second by second.
While we may have been tempted by potential greater returns that some of these other products offered, we simply could not justify the risk of owning hard to value, thinly traded, hard to sell items. And, we never had to rely on the models of the individuals who created and sold us these products in the first place, to determine an actual price. If ever a product was rife with self-interested conflicts of interest, this one is it.
That is one of the key elements of the current situation. A decision was made to bypass the broad, deeply traded traditional markets (Equities, Fixed Income, Commodities and Currency) and instead create new markets for new products. No one should be surprised that the net result was a flawed system of garbage paper, with too little room at the exits in case of emergency.
Let's puts this into some context:
"Accounting is a way of portioning economic results by time periods. It doesn’t affect the cash flows, but tries to allocate economic profits proportional to release from risk. If we were back in an era where the financial instruments were simple, then the old rules would work. But once you introduce derivatives, and securities that are called bonds, but are more akin to equity interests, you need to mark them to market."
-David Merkel
Exactly. Otherwise, you are left with public companies, who have made capital allocation and investment decisions that are hidden from their owners (shareholders) and the investing public.
Now that the garbage is on the books, no one wants to admit the original error of purchasing this class of assets. Its not just that the trade has gone bad, its the original buying decision was so flawed even if the trades were not such giant losers.
Recent actions of corporate titans in the financial sector are essentially an admission that their business model was deeply flawed. No one would invest any capital for a ROI of 50 bps per year. They of course knew this -- so they leveraged up that 50 bps 35X or so, creating the false appearance of more attractive returns. This higher risk, potentially higher return paper was part of that misleading process.
Suspending FASB 157 amounts to little more than an attempt to hide this broken business model from investors, regulators and the public. Its not just getting through the next few quarters that matters; Rather, its allowing the market place to appropriately reallocate this capital to where it will serve its investors best. That is what free market capitalism is, including Schumpeter's creative destruction. (A WSJ OpEd today get this issue precisely wrong).
I have been steadfast over the past 2 years about why I did not want to own any of the financials that held this paper on its books. The key was that we could not figure out what the liabilities were relative to the assets. That is investing 101.
If FASB 157 is suspended, I would advise our clients and the investing public that owning any financials that failed to disclose their holdings accurately were no longer investments -- they were pure speculations, with more in common to spinning a roulette wheel than owning Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) or Apple (AAPL) or Google (GOOG). Indeed, I know of no faster way to end up on the DO NOT OWN list than to hide from your shareholders what is on your books.
If investors cannot trust the valuations of what is on a firms books, they simply cannot invest in these firms PERIOD.
There are other alternatives for the institutions that now must deal with this discounted, thinly traded hard to value junk paper. They can sell it for whatever price a the market will bear, they can spin it off into a separate holding company, they can write it down to zero and reap the rewards of mark ups in future quarters.
But suspending the proper accounting of this paper is the refuge of cowards. It reflects a refusal to admit the original error, it hides the mistake, and it misleads shareholders. I find it to be totally unacceptable solution to the current crisis.
As Japan learned, not taking the write downs only delays the day of reckoning. They propped up insolvent banks, and suffered a decade long recession for it. That way disaster lay . . .
...the inmates are running a muck of the board policies.
Very dirty business.