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Hi Dan, patience on a Friday afternoon is a real virtue. When they upgrade in one package Countrywide and Amgen it looks like they don't know how to lift the market and stay credible at the same time...Perhaps staying out for now is OK. fox
Dan your call was good because it predicted the sequence of the moves this morning. The echo effect was even better than expected and brought us down to the area of support. I am now watchig your UP move. Don't dare to go long.
Euterpe, support was around QLD 90, which is equivalent to the support of the Qs at 46.72 +or- o.1. I am out and wait to reenter in shorts. I would not go long. Hopefully my prev support(47.4) is now a good rez. This will be a point of re-entry...but I might like to stay out for the week-end.
FOOT, it seems that the boyz have the support and target around 1330. On my chart that level is tangential to the upper line of the cycle envelope. It also intersects the support trend line somewhere within this cycle. So, they might just take it there and then...
GLENO, Qs 47.40 was no problem. Down we go to 46.72. I still plan to unload some shorts around there. Don't forget the PPT. How do you plan to play it?
Hope da trades vill vork prima for you! fox.
NM, this is very nice. Indeed, the comm. is insignificant, if the MOVE in the right direction is so impressive. I also like Qs options, mainly because they trade in 1 cent increments and are very liquid. Anyway, I am still short. Asia and Australia are now down big time. Even the Shanghai fellows figured it out finally. WSJ has some prety nasty stuff on the "fallout intensified": IKB/ Rheinland in Germany and new home-grown dirt on Countrywide, Tarragon, Renaissance TC and Highbridge. It looks so bad that the PPT will probably go to work soon. I have to get out in time, after which they can take the Qs above 48 - good for your call spread.
Sleepless fox
Yes Dan, Shangai is up. I was told that in Red China itself they are not allowed to short. Only buy and sell. They have two indexes: DJ Shanghai and DJ CBN China600. Although China profits more than any other country from globalisation, they are disconnected from the world. Besides them, right now, only the "Sri Lanka Colombo All Shares",who is not open, is green. All other indexes are red: Among them: Austalia (-2.5%), Hong Kong(-0.43%), Nikkei (-2.4%) and Singapore (-3.18). I would say that in Australia and Asia the reaction is quite clear so far...
Dan, the echo effect in Asia and Europe will probably extend the down trend after opening. If the Qs drop through 47.4 they might stop at 47. Then? When you wrote "UP for the day" you really mean a serious up? I must confess that contrary to FOOT's very good advice, I am kepping all my many kinds of shorts. My original intention was to lighten 1/2 a position around 46.7? Now, i am not so sure. Tonight I will listen to Europe but I know how they feel already. Don't forget, they are ALL vacationing for the whole month of August: the rich, the poor and the unemployed. The Frogs (who secretly hate family life) have now a good reason to drink, be offensive and ... blame l'Amerique. But, when Paribas is in trouble many other less reputable "banks" WILL follow. There is no way that it will stop now. And here is the key question: how many and how fat: Germany... Switzerland... England???
Hope da trades vill vork prima for you! fox.
NM, congrtatulation. Did you finally keep those $49 puts of yesterday or sold them and bought new ones? Do you have a good broker who charges less than mine? I pay a flat $1 per contract. For large trades, their commission (TradeStation) can be substantial.
Gleno, here are my support levels for the Qs:
48.21; 47.70; 46.72 (quite close to yours - I assume yours are Fib retraction levels)
Targets: $46.72 ( sell 1/2 position) ; 46. 22
46.72 is DA MAGNET: 4 fractal inflexion points (in the rectangle) and 1 strong fractal support. Also note that the dominant time cycle has become left-translated: bearish.
Gleno, this market is going DOWN... Targets are below. If the CD line of FOOT will be dissected into 1 to 5 and not into abc then even Mathias will admit that the bear is with us. For short term, I have the fox Op exp indicator: In more than 60% of situations, the markets on Thursday, 8 days before exp (ie today) and on tuesday of the exp week go in opposite directions. If they go the same way , that direction will stay dominant for the next month. It's not a joke: there is a secret link between these two days.
The atmosphere sucks on the white schooners in the St. Tropez marina... "How could they do that to us!?"... I remember the old building of Paribas, in Place Vandome, facing the Ritz and Cartier. That's Location! When I was an exchange student there, I was thinking that this was the place where to keep your francs, but only if you have lots of them. I was such a clown...
NM: Dat be zometing dat vill verk for you prima (free translation into Yankee Lingo from Schwitzerduetch)
Good trade! fox
before doing it, i would try to estimate the potential decay of the 50 puts into op exp. If it is big , I would stay with the original strategy for the reason already mentined. Hope I am not too late. Good luck, fox
NM I thought you would do that. Mc.Millan would be proud. Of course , the sooner you move to sell the 49 puts and reinvest, the better for you since they have a higher time decay than the spread whih would absorb your gain. So, you have to watch the market all the time. As you say cannot trust the boyz...
Hope it verks, fox
Hey NM, nice bullish spread play, but also close to op exp for a lock-in. did you buy 49 puts under $0.65? godd luck!
Hope it verks, fox
Golfin, you got it all wrong. I am not DT - I started posting here a year before him, as you ca check by clicking on my alias and on his. I can be only astonished that you misunderstood my post so badly - perhaps because I intentionally adopted a quasi-pompous style (which is normally not mine) to make my point... It might have fooled some... You might read it again and hopefully change your mind after you really get a grasp of what I said. If you don't, I obviously wasted my time writing it. DT must be laughing now with a mephistophelean satisfaction. I only hope that aire, for whom I have the greatest respect and admiration, got it right.
I consider the matter closed for good.
fox
FOOT, love your CD drop. I repost my previous and now updated fractal cycles SPX projection, on which I added you target. It appears that your Fib retraction target is surprisingly close to mine. I like it, when two independent methods lead to close predictions...unless da boyz do their magic to turn it the other way. However, I think that this heretical time cycle (which is not right translated any more) might be on our side.
Hope it verks! fox
aire, good that DT did not get you too irritated. Many of us read your posts with great interest. Your respect for Hurst is not only understandable, but also shared by many. His book is a masterpiece in both the quality of the logical flow and in the beauty of the language. Interestingly, I think he considered in extenso the complexity of the decision making process, which obviously preocupies the fertile mind of DT. Two examples: "being sensitive to my case morphing into the opposite or some surprising variation (which happens often)" says DT. Yes...that time consuming mix of Marxist dilaectical misreading of Hegel applied to price action and to the tone of Maria Bartiromo's voice... Says Hurst: "Remember that stocks fluctuate-cyclically. If you make a meal out of a sandwich in you screening process, they will fluctuate without you before you can get your analysis completed."
It appers that DT is developing not a method, but "a Style",
which he is ..."tempted to call "jazz trading"--meaning it is improvised in the moment and constantly re-improvised." Now, this deserves serious consideration. Says Hurst: "In fact, the ability to make good decisions in the absence of sufficient information is what distiguishes the successful executive (or investor) from the unsuccesful one. So decisions are often based on other that a straight forward line of reasoning." To be noticed, JMH does not think that they are some magical hocus-pocus. I am sure that DT is aware that John von Neuman asked a famous question: can one build an automaton which reliably computes unreliable data? (in Theory of Automata and later in letter to Nature). Too bad that he is dead and did not have the fortune to read how DT has done it. But anyway, many try, to give a scientific flavour to trading. Again, Hurst figured out that Fourier's method used to represent discontinuous functions by trigonometric series was perfect for his multiple cycle work. Some friend of mine even went further: he showed me some applied Fresnel's equations derivatives that he used to investiagate the "buffering" of time cycles. LOL. So let's be kind to each other and when one of us sounds too originl, let's only ask: "does it verk?"
fox
smartone, it "verked" again. First sold puts, then calls. Thus, both trades were +. Thinking of your mentioned trade, also bough some AAPL at $133.13, while Qs were low. Sold everything. It was not hard since the moves were slow and "consequential" - but nerve-consuming (particularly the AAPL trade)
fox
yes smartone, that was a good one. The difference: most of the time, apple does not report during options trading hours. Or did it that time? Now, with the fed the success of the operation depends on the speed and accuracy of discarding one leg.
denmo, good point. I am trying to construct a "rich strangle" on the Qs before the announcement, i.e. to buy slowly, el chipo, both calls and puts, so that at the time T should have a slightly positive balance. When the oracle is revealed, I will discard the putative loosing leg during the counter-move of the confusion. I might be able to decide that fast, based on key associations of terms, like: growth + concern, subprime + contained, or subprime + diffusion...or teir equiuvalent in Pricetonian lingo. I have a bullish bias, mainly reflecting the exquisite double-bottom in you charts.
If interested, I will let you know if it "verks", as Scamman would say...
fox
Maybe what we now see, is the expresion of a dilemma experienced by da boyz: 1. if they let the market go down, many retailers, who are short, could make money; 2. if they take it up too much, the fed might conclude that they don't need any help. The fed is of the essence , so the market might go slightly down in spite of disbalaces and other teks.
GLENO, you did not miss much. I bought 2x q calls, but sold them all since the Qs did not go above 47.62 (my rez). Ordered now to buy puts (Aug 49). For the SPX, 1428 held... once, but is now ready to fall again.
hey, Gleno. Is this predictable bounce real and healthy??? What I have is a FRAMA inflexion at 1428. At this level, also the SPY gap of 04/04. Strong support. Thereafter... down: 1375 and finally 1300. Dominant time cycle low: end Oct.
Am now totally in cash after getting out of da stupid Germans and a fun Friday. Do you dare to play this timid up-trend?
GLENO, I also sold the QLD too early, but bought da Germans 40 min before close: BAY, SI, BF & GF for a strong "ECHO EFECT", to be expected in Europe, tomorrow morning. We shall see...
I really liked your posts in the last 3 days.
Greetings, fox.
Foot, you are probsably right about the double bottom. It looks more convincig for SPY. For the Qs, AAPL is leading the moves and there is a lot of faking going on. fox
Gleno'S sucker is falling out of bed. The previous pivot 48.55 bacame resistance. It held twice already. If it holds, Qs will go down (target 48.03). To watch the events in real time, I usually look at the action in options. This is because I noticed that they move before the shares (3 to 7 sec). For the Qs, the increments are $0.01, which makes every move significant, in particular if it represents lots of contracts bought at the ask. Ex: Aug 49 put (QQQ TW).
No Dan, no BIG BOUNCE yet. Below , I post a chart of QLD. It is not an amplified version of the Qs. Why? Because it probably reflects also the sentiment for "optomism". Did anyone notice the huge dif. in vol/day between QID/QLD? In manipulated markets, the tek. anal. should be used in the context of the events. When the lapdogs of CNBC were talkig to the gvt. the markets were desperately pushed up. Where did they stop? At the inflexion point of QLD. See chart. That is when one should sell QLD and buy QID. It is not a lot of cash but the satisfaction of using the supidity of da boysz and the lapdogs...priceless.
Have fun, fox
be, I would love to do it but I do not know how to post a refreshable chart. Is there a site where this could be done?
QLDs not good enough to keep: Qs did no go over 48.93 (previous inflexion point)
john, the condition is on the chart: the Qs have to go above the projection of the previous fractal low (green line)
Qs = 48.55. We are almost there, but if we dpon't get there, I don't do it. I do not leave in Krammerica I and target the ask.
Good luck, fox
be, you are right. Right now, the Qs are very weak. My target was met. I will buy QLD only when the next condion is met.
fox
Gleno. I changed colors of the same chart, as you suggested.
Also, some explanations of what I am doing:
- The at the bottom,the arches represent time cycles. They are not symmetrical, but sometimes "translated" to the right, in bull markets.
- In green, you have an envelope to a moving average which is adjusted to a "significant" cyle.
- In red, you have a Keltner channel which moves inside the green envelope. Thus, it tells us wht smaller moves happen within a larger cyclical move. As you will notice, they are both displced in time, according to J.M.Hurst. That is why thy do not come all the way to the present, but they fit so nicely on top of the price action.
- In dark blue, we have "FRAMA by Elhers": it is a fractal moving average, which, in contrast to the previous ones, is in real time. As you can see, this marvel of modern maths is sometimes flat although the price moves, but some other times it performs abrupt or "fractured" moves. Ehlers described his product as "non-ambiguous". I use it as an indcator for an active trough of a time cycle. This is why, my charts are heretical, and probably unacceptable to the guardians of the Hurst faith.
- The congestion zone is also a double top.
- The target zone and the "final" resistance which were aproximated by fractal projections, were ok but not perfect.
Drawing is not a science. Hope at least to make it clear.
SPY is now under the target zone (#20355). Qs are following slowly. But...da boysz were fed a lot of freshly printed cash. I suspect they will use it for an afternoon move. In Europe everything sucks. Siemens AG, the best indicator of the sentiment there, is in the toilet. Don't let them tell you it's because of this and that...The cruel reality is finally here. I am now in cash, probably too soon. I will short the afternoon up-manipulation, if it happens.
Have fun, if you are brave!
Fox
---------------------------
Reality = CNBC X (-1)
a detail of the previous chart #20365, which was unfortunately, again, too small. trying to get better.
GLENO,imo the qs will have to decide soon.
in this chart they have a 22d cycle (which is defined by the lows of FRAMA and goes back for over 100d). The thick red line is strange: it starts at inflexion 2 and touches all recent lows. I noticed that,frequently, this type of constuct (for indexes or large caps) is strong and significant. Da boysz seem to give it a lot of respect. BUT IF the qs drop trhrough it, they will probably go through the inflexion 1 which, interestingly, is also the top of the gap on 7/12. If they go through the gap they should stop for at least a while at the thin dotted red line which is defined by 3 previous lows of frama.
fox
sorry for that dark chart. this zoom might be better
here is a spy loose short cyle construct which i used for a few days. It is impure, since it uses fractal projections and inflexion points f(x)". imo it should fall in the target zone:
XLE cycles: after this short nice trip, should we stay out for a while? I am trying to suppress my bullish feelings for this future cold winter.
The next step is the hard one. fox
the short term fate of 4Qs is intriguing. I checked the 5/13 MA of QLD and you are right. Do you use these as F numbers "derivatives"? in which context? i do not know what to do with this crossover. Do you predict a fall through 41.5 for the 4Qs? If yes , IMO this might be a drastic change and one should not micro-manage before it happens but keep the shorts.