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Gleno and Foot: Tg. overshot: out QQQ CR at 1.07
Gleno: Target = MA34= 43.54=? If not, keep…
Gleno & Foot. Got signal. They are finally selling puts. Also… stops are cracking! Good job! Let-s see how far we can go!!! fox
Yes Gleno, I am scared of those whiskers. THEY might be up to no good.
Steve & Gleno: yes, but when? I am looking for that signal. So far only small fish are getting out of the short trade. Up vol. is low. The next congestion zone for the Qs is above 43.11. Will they enter it with enough vigor to let you make profits? If not, will you be willing to keep longs? If you still have puts, locking in - like Blasher - is the most prudent move.
Steve, this is true, but on my chart the next resistance is 42.69 estalished on 02/08. It can go there easily. fox
Blasher, good job! Sell those puppies and lock in your profits! I was talking about some people who might sell 44 puts, which are now well in the money. So far… nothing significant. Next week , I plan to construct some put calendar spreads on some indices. Do you like those trades? I had the best results when I sell 10 -15 days before exp., same strike and 2-3 months time difference. Have a nice week-end, fox
BE, let’s forget about TA for a while. If your broker provides a time/sale table, you will easily see in it that, in the early morning, HUGE packs of QQQ.OR at the money puts were bought at the ask (in green) by some “people” who were willing to take a risk. Also at that time all the foreign markets were “hypnotically” down while we were up and cheap. So, Blasher , I and others simply jumped on the wagon. Well, now, the reverse: THEY are selling more than buying. Why? 1). It is Friday and we don’t want to spend a week-end holding lots of puts with their stinky time decay; 2).The market is tired of a dull slow retreat without any juicy bad news; 3). Hillary cried last night shedding crocodile tears, at the end of the debate, a fact which has a valedictorian resonance - and therefore is bullish. So, one might go long for a quickie. When? When you see lots of puts being sold at the bid. Regards, fox
Hello Dan. I got out of Q puts and try to play some "real stock". SIGM (sigma Design)is down big today without an apparent reason. It's one of the few tex who did very well in the second half of January. Fundamentals are very "special" + hope of acquisition. I also wish I knew more about gambling stocks. fox
Blasher, Gleno and NM: THEY support 43.09 ferociously but in an expert fashion, without spending a lot of the taxpayers’ money. Not worth waiting for 43 (my original target). All March 44 puts (yesterday’s and early today’s QQQ.OR) sold at $1.7. So far, NO buy signal. BE, if you read this , keep a tight stop for your longs. Have fun and let us know if you guys go long. fox
Blasher, Gleno and NM: is this an acceptable scenario? If da boyz can hypnotize Hong Kong and Frankfurt….why not the Apple Turnover trade?
OK Be, I am out of what turned out to be an uninspired short trade. The fractal rez. Around 135, 6 was obtained by extending a horizontal line from a peak described by the fast (purple) FRAMA (drawn by modifying the Elhers formula). When the price touched this line and then started to go down , I bought SPY puts immediately. After that, it coiled a lot. It tuned out that some “people” were buying some kind of futures (E-Minies), The first big arch marking the increase in vol. could be called : “Enters the DRAGON”. The second one , much smaller , is the suckers’ rally, who found out from Pisani, on CNBC, that the dragon was there. I tried my best to get out. An opportunity appeared, when, after the Fed’s Minutes, in the general state of tra-la-la, the price touched the famous 34 MA, which is so popular here. Probably the price will reenter the channel and go lower, or break out higher, but I decided it’s not worth risking it.
Ralph N Elliot discovered in the 1930-s, that the time/price evolution of stock markets is a “specifically patterned fractal”. In the meantime fractals became very popular( figures which include each other in essence but not in details, like a theme in a musical tune which can be discerned in spite of being heard together with ”fiorituri“). Seacoasts on maps at various scales are also fractals. Robert Prechter has studied the quantitative expressions of the market fractal and described it as a ROBUST fractal. He and others wrote books and articles which I personally enjoyed. A fractal moving average is not the same as a linear or exponential moving average. As one can notice, it is moving more dramatically than the price action when the price moves, and is lazy or flat when the price coils. I work with two fractals: the fast one which moves a lot (purple) and the slow ( or lazy) one (in white). I noticed that their peaks, V-bottoms , extensive horizontal flats, or bowtie formations can have a predictive value for the future evolution of the price action. There are many programs and books about fractal analysis and strategy. Various people and broker-dealers sell them, but I cannot recommend any since I am only a free and wild mountain fox. Regards.
Thanks, Be. Right now I am shorting SPY. Entered at fractal rez: 135.58. Say if you want to see the chart. fox
Yes, Gleno and Foot. Some minds share a subtle sense of humor. Since I was worried, I got out of all puts and now I am out. Looking at gold stocks. The Elliott people and the time cycles got stuck here. Everybody knows that after the Chinese New Year, gold should drop, but will it? If it is unofficially re-monetized, then the story might change. Gurus say: no way! What say you? fox
Gleno, I bought more puts right after HPQ's earnings but I am worried. THEY know the triangles too. An intervention is highly probable after this CPI. fox
GLENO: good triangulation last night, man! Qs are already down at 43.43! our small triangle is gone! I am staying with the move in the second big one. however i am human and I confess : I unloaded some puts. Might buy some more on close. If I do, I'll let you know. fox
RE:Dan: covered MOS at 109.8for $1.5 gain. It was overbought, tired and "over-squeezed". But it is indeed a good stock. fox
Dan, good job. How about shorting MOS at 111.3 ?
Let's see. fox
Good question, Gleno. Triangles are the darlings of both Elliot and the Hurst people because if you call a correct break out point, when it happens in the expected direction, you are prepared to react fast with all the tools ready to go. I looked at both your triangles. First, the large one (ABC, on my 60min. chart). As suggested by a classic (John Murphy)…“prices should break out in the direction of the prior trend somewhere between two thirds and three quarters of the horizontal width of the triangle“. I think that the red line (1 on my chart) defines a significant prior downtrend, enforced by the impulsive Boxing Day double top. The AC line extended to the left also meets an area of congestion, marked by a rectangle around 01/15/08 where the two fractals and the 34MA describe a bow tie. In my thinking this suggests its technical significance. Finally, if the extremes of the prior downtrend are taken as a standard for building Fib. time ext. lines, it appears that the 38.2% and the 61% verticals fit to Qs price lows while the 100% is close to the apex of the triangle in the future. To Fibonacci fans this suggests that the small triangle that you correctly noticed, is actually imbedded in the large one and uses Fibonacci time/price evolution points derived from the dissection of the large triangle. IF this is true, one might HOPE that the next move will simply follow the rules of geometry, as shown by the dotted green line. Thus, the real action should be in the big triangle which as you suggested, is bearish. We might be close to the point between “two thirds and three quarters of the horizontal width of the triangle”, when the Qs will go DOWN.
Regards, fox
Hi Dan and Gleno.
I have been working on a weekly Qs chart. It fills a much needed gap… and is a variant of one of my posts last summer. Large cycle = 99 wks. Troughs are well aligned, by wks of: 10/11/02, 8/13/04 and 7/21/06. The N/2 cycles are not ok, so I don’t use them. In contrast the next shorter cycles (N/4=24 wks) are Ok, but slightly out of phase with the large cycle. The target zones are determined by the slow and fast fractals. It looks like the previous targets on the way down were also congested zones, while the last one opposed no resistance, as the down trend was helped by a gap. Da next magnet could be 40.26 , suggested by a 3x bowtie and inflexion points, from 10/06. If it is reached in a few days, we migh get a corrective uptrend and finally, a big down into the trough of the long cycle (wk of 6/13/08). fox
Hi GLENO. I am short. Sell signal came at Qs = 46.42. Decidecto disregard bounce at bottom of price channel (46.31). Chart later.
Good luck! fox
Hi GLENO. I am short. Sell signal came at Qs = 46.42. Decidecto disregard bounce at bottom of price channel (46.31). Chart later.
Good luck! fox
Gleno and FOOT, love you 34 MA on the 5 min (green) . I put together with together with two fractal numerical filters [one fast(purple) and one slow (white)]. The first bowtie told me that I have a date with Lady Fortune, while the doji on the edge of the Keltner channel says that the date is over Too short …could not buy back my 45puts, that I had previously sold.. Then, after meeting the low price channel (dotted red) I got a second chance. Buy signal ( 2 green candles after the fractal sharp angle, confirmed by the bowtie 2, and finally, before close: ALL OUT! What is really nice about the 34 MA is that, between 1 and 2, it kept an optimistic, slightly concave shape, allowing the fractals to dance. Also, notice that the fractals cross each over almost on top of the 34MA. This is not a coincidence. Thanx, fox
Gleno, nice chart. The fractal cycles projection that I posted 2 nights ago also predicts 43.9 as a first rez. But probably not today. Najarian is right: we will see big fluctuations due to OpExp where many did not roll their puts into Sep yet. I locked the profit of my Sep 38 puts by selling 35 puts. If they take the Qs up on close I’ll buy them back. fox
Gleno, the bounce? not yet... The sale will last as long as da boyz do not gave the means to “engineer” the market . For now, they have lots of worries, and they have to raise cash because recently divorced Mimi Polyester wants redemption - which is good for us. So, for once they are good boyz. May it last …Get them! fox
MMArk, be careful with this so-called injection of cash. The Fed was injecting two doses oh cash every Thursday for a long time. At a great extent, the whole pumping of the market was supported for months and years by such cash. CNBC is misleading the “retailers“, as a practice, coordinated with Flabby Abby‘s pro-long propaganda. Only now they talk about such injections. They want us to stay long in the market, even to buy the dip, and support da boyz who sell and go short . Get them! fox
FOOT, the cat could not bounce because Bob Pisani had it for lunch in some Little Italy trattoria. His Italian being kind of rusty, he chose from the menu "scaloppine de gato nero" instead of Chianti “Selezione Gallo Nero”. So, instead of a first class red wine, he got a black cat steak ...which apparently he enjoyed.
Let’s get them tomorrow! fox
So FOOT, do you expect a last hour treadable bounce? Remember, today the dead cat is alive and well and lives on Wall Street. If it doesn’t happen, then tomorrow will be DOWN!
fox
Foot, here is the second chart, with two approximate and uncertain predictions of lower targets; 43.9 and 40.16.
Have fun and good trades,
sleepless fox
Hey FOOT, I got out of the shorts on close and still expect a tiny up before OpExp but I cannot be optimistic for the future. Scam has a great post . I have no agenda …but IMHO
we are going DOWN. The cycles and the waves people live in two distinct stables. I am intrigued by the possibility that for the Qs the classical nominality of Hurst might not be IT. I have a suspicion that an interaction of 2 cycles [A(100wks) = 2,5B(40wks)] might do the tricks. That means that you will have a nest of lows only 0.5 of the classically predicted times. This is suggested by the interaction between two numerical filters that measure “temporal nonstationarity” and which are adjusted accordingly. Anyway, here are two charts to laugh about: 1). shows the historical fit of such cycles, and 2).....in next post
Yes Dan, your observation is quite interesting. For this kind of calls it could be significant. Q = what do they know?
Tomorrow will be another day.....sleepless fox
Yes Foot, a few things are bearish. I compared the price action on Thurs. and Tue before OpExp, now Aug 9 and 14. Because of "compensatory engineering" they usually display opposite tendencies. But not now, not only they go in the same dir. but today shows : lower opening, lower high, lower close, and lower low. And they both close at the low of the day!! It is obvious how to interpret that.
Dan, 2nd target met (46.75). I am out.
fox
Nirvana, as I wrote to Dan, this is also my 2nd target (Qs= 36,75 +/-0.1). Are you also short and waiting for it?
Have fun and good trades, fox
Hey Dan, great job …Yes, it is Glen’s fault: in the morning he thought the Qs were going to hold 47.26 (S2). My call spread is still holding fine but -to hedge- I bought QID and SDS this morning , at Qs= 47.58. Later added to the long arm of the straddle (Sep call 47) at 37.13: Irish finesse to the 9 of clubs… Still keeping the 2x shorts since my 2 intraday targets were not yet met: 46,98 and 46.75. It’s always easier to enter hedging positions than to get out of them.
Have fun and good trades, fox
Thanks FOOT. Apparently I was in a loop, but I finally got out. Now I can further annoy you.
Have fun and good trades, fox.
Foot, something wrong with this hub: they won't let me get to the main list of messages in SPY TEC unless I activate a free trial of the iHub Premium. However, I can get into other hubs, like the SHORT. I am sending you this message through a back door: a message of yours which I missed, was stored, and to which I now answer. It wold be a shame if this kind of stuff prevents us to communicate...
Regards, fox
Hey Dan, with 47.4 to 47.5 safely (or unsafely?) left behind, it looks like the Qs are being engineered to go up into the opexp. Target 48.5, maybe slightly higher. So, I bought this morning a structured call spread (b47, s48). In my lingo, structured = 1. buy first 47 - let it go up( if it goes down, sell); 2. sell 48; 3. if Qs go down and you are still confident, repeat 1 and 2 to acquire more. If it goes up, relax and enjoy. Right now I am in the green for both legs, which means that the structuring worked ($0.12 cheaper than the quote). It also means that so far it does not go anywhere. If it really goes up, I might lock in at some higher level.
How was your weekend? Mine was very quiet.
Have fun and good trades! fox
Hey airedale, I really like your work on The Bank Index.
After reading some posts by other people, I think that they are tempted to ”shift cycles around” because in some situations they see a HURST STRADDLE. This occurs when a nest of lows is superimposed on a price low …“that is more visually dominating than the price lows associated with more important nests of lows on either side“. (This explanation is not for you). Hurst deals with this matter very nicely, clearly and extensively in Lesson 8 of his Course, when he analyzes the Natomas cycles in ‘73. Your post #27708 also suggests that people should resist this temptation and I think that reading more might help them.
Your Bank Index work took care precisely of that. I am also fascinated by the Grand Exception in nominality: 54w/18w (f=3) also reflected in the proportionality of amplitudes. I spent some time reading Hurst after seeing your post and made some calculations - I was sleepless fox last night. In chapter 11 of the Book, he makes the valid point that a Fourier analysis does not de facto dissect the resultant of sine waves interactions. After telling us why, he concludes that F.a. is …”a good starting point when you suspect hidden periodicities, but other techniques must be used to learn more about whether the originating process put all or part of the periodic components into the spectrum to begin with.” How? By using various typess of numerical filters - he says. This is essential and I think you did just that. For those friends of ours, accidental tourists in Hurstland, who really want to get into it, should we suggest spending some time not only with this chapter but also with appendix one , which reaches esoteric and unexpected heights? Some might not believe it but it can be great fun.
Boring calculations, which have no place here, led me to represent your cycles in the company of some filters. This might be uninteresting for many. But , others might be surprised that a fox can agree with an airedale. Briefly, as described by J.H.Ehlers, fractal adaptive moving averages (FRAMA) are a class of filters that monitors a measure of nonstationarity. Sounds horrible but it’s not that bad because airdale already determined the location of the nests of lows and we approximately know the T value of the cycles. The 2 FRAMAs in the figure are constructed so that they account for the nominality and proportionality relation between the cycles of interest (3x). The 18m cycle envelope (L=9, displ.=4) is also represented . The Mov. Av. Weighted (thin purple line, L=9, displ.=0) is a poor filter but gives a +bias for recent price movement. The color coded arrows show those time points of trough, predicted by Airedale, which coincide with signals of positive shifts in the FAMA and MAW. (they are NOT inflexion points, as some Wall Street turkeys would call them!!). No more words. I was astonished .
Some astute observer might think that, according to hysterical Lady Frama, the 4.5y might be either the 53m or the classical 54 m. The latter could kick its trough into Oct. I honestly cannot tell what will happen right now. A minimal timing variation can have, in the present conditions of volatility, a dramatic signficance for the swing trader. Also my software decided that we are already on Aug 31, to simplify things. Almost everybody in the Street, CNCB, Bloomberg …goes nuts. “Fear of risk does not die” says the WSJ weekend edition. My Xes in Texas must be really confused. Financial advisors don’t answer their calls: …“para hablar Ingles…“ LOL. For hedge fund redemptions!!?!?. Perhaps, Senor Slim… But Airdale is right in essence: the nest of lows is either here or in sight.
My problem is different: I sold on Friday all sort of shorts. I am out of the market and , in the words of JMH, I am now combating my own emotional cyclicality.
Have fun and good trades! fox