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Sorry for the redundancy.EoM
Mr. Cash, you said, "And - imho, the bull move will not end until we see the capitualtion by the Small Specs i.e. until they go heavily net SHORT (caps mine)".
Don't you mean, net long?
Deva
Don't know much about Elliot Wave, but using 201 as the top, GOOG looks like it's in a classic impulsive? pattern, think today is wave 3? ~D
Thank you, Mr. Cash. Getting a lot of conflicting signals on my charts, thanks again for the input.~D
Thank you, Airedale.EoM
Cash, Airedale,
Has the recent activity caused you to readjust your respective ST cycle targets and phasing? I seem to remember you both had a slight disagreement as to the nominal 6-7, 13-14 day cycles.
Today's volume pattern(s) looks suspicious to me for a start of a real downtrend and I think this may just be a ST correction.
I tore my meniscus ligament in my knee on the way home from my retreat, and it seems like I will have lots of time on my hands in the near future. Seems like an ideal time to start studying the Hurst book which I picked up some time ago, and hope you don't mind my questions also.
If anyone plays individual stocks here, GOOG is having some fun intra-day swings.
Deva
Started placing first shorts.Hello, everyone.EoM
To the board,
I am somewhat hesitant to broach this subject, but considering that it HAS been brought up before, a personal admission - I am a practicing Tibetan Buddhist and I travel to a Buddhist monastery once or twice a year for a week of "power" praying/chanting lol. I want you to know that you will all be in my thoughts and well wishes and prayers for your happinesss during the coming ceremony.
Best wishes and will see you (well back to lurking anyway!) in two weeks.
God bless,
Deva
Airedale, Mr. Cash,
Thank you for your response. I called Etrade and they resolved the error, finally. They had recently outsources their (my)balance/trading statements to ADP, and they admitted they were having a lot of problems with customers, and I got one free trade out of it too, lol.
Once again, many thanks.
Deva
Good call!EoM
SMA? Sorry.EoM
correction:
"When I called Etrade they told me that the money from the calls would be reflected in reducing my marging debt/and/or margin buying power."
should be...
"When I called Etrade they told me that the money from the calls would be reflected in reducing my marging debt/and/or INCREASING my margin buying power..."
HELP!!! Question for options traders here:
On Tuesday, October 12, I wrote two covered calls for $480 each, a total of $960. On Friday the 15th, the underlying securities were called away at a slightly lower price than where I sold the options, plus there was $40 for the fee for having the stocks called away. There should have been approximately $820 profit, WHICH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING REFLECTED in my account.
When I called Etrade they told me that the money from the calls would be reflected in reducing my marging debt/and/or margin buying power, but not reflected in my actual balance. I was under the impression that the was true as long as the covered calls were open, but that once the the calls expired profitably, the profit was placed into my account.
I am very confused here, and would appreciate any help the board could offer me.
Also, is there any professional stock program that would help me keep track of my trades in a 'running balance' format, rather than debits and credits in parallet columns? Not a math major here by a long shot (visual patterns are my strength in the market), and need to start keep track of Etrade's activities more closely now, particularly since they have been rather cavalier about the whole discrepancey.
Thank you,
Deva
LOL.EoM
40 week cycle equals approximately 9 months....;)EoM
What really PISSES ME OFF!!#$$%## is that AOL, my dial-up connection provider (yes, there are still some of us out there that use dial-up) places spyware on my computer every time I boot up, AT LEAST 3 OR 4!, and then has the nerve to pop-up an ad for their spyware removal program, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!!!!!
sheesh!
:(
This is the direct link to the forum itself:
http://www.bullguard.com/forum/
Airedale,
Try this link:
http://www.bullguard.com/
It's a forum for helping people with persistent hijack programs, spyware, etc.. There are experts who donate their time for free, or fun. The problem with some hijack software is that they mutate - you can use adaware, etc., till the cows come home and the programs have executable files in there that will get around it. For instance, a friend of mine had msitstore hijack virus: it deleted her Windows start page file and wrote one of it's own, every time she deleted the msitstore start page on her "Internet Options", it just replaced itself.
You need to join the forum (it's free), then copy and paste the log file from your resident spyware program on your file so they can take a look at it.
Hope this helps,
Deva
Interesting site...
http://www.ermanometry.com/exampref.htm
'Mornin', all.
Also, if you wouldn't mind posting those charts again (A and B bonds)?Deva
Closed INTC short@20.20.EoM
Thank you, Techcharter. Not very knowledgeable about bonds or yields vis-a-vis larger economic pix and would like to expand my knowledge. Are there any books you can recommend?
Once again, thanks.
Deva
Techcharter, excuse my ignorance once again, but what is obvious? I thought that traditionally bonds and stocks had an inverse relationship(bonds down=stocks up). Could you explain what it means when they both turn and how that takes place?
Also, several years ago Schaeffer stated that he thought the inverse relationship between bonds and stocks was breaking down (I paraphrase); in addition, a friend of mine a year ago with a masters in economics attempted to explain to me how in a truly critical(bearish) situation, they both would topple, is this what you are referring to?
I know this is a lot of "????" and I apologize for any inconvenience.
DD
NEXT=NXTL.EoM
Added to INTC, NEXT shorts, 20.49, 23.50, respectively.EoM
INTC short still open; NXTL: opened short@23.21.EoM
INTC: Opened short@21.31. Stop@21.56.EoM
Closed rest of NXTL short at 23.11, although further downside most likely, even possibly to 22.50. Hope I'm not boring everyone with posting my real-time trades, let me know if I am and I will discontinue.
Deva
NXTL: Closed 1/2 position @ 23.35.EoM
NXTL: short still open since 24.30 (raised my stop to 24.81 since last post and didn't get stopped out).
KMX: sort of a combination double bottom/reverse head and shoulders forming. Looking to buy on high volume over 22.00.
Thanks, Airedale. I've been playing NXTL for a long time and have a feel for it's rhythms - it usually pulls back after approximately a 3.50 point move(approximately), but Hurst cycles have helped me to understand the moves much more within a cyclical context as to time and depth of pull-back.
Amen to that(stops)!
Deva
Thanks for your reply, Airedale. I entered a short 'short' on NXTL at 24.30 this morning, stop if it closes over 24.55. Looking for a very short term scalp, as I am primarily bullish for the fall.
Thanks again,
DD
Airedale, same question here...it looks to me that 'they' may be setting up an end of year rally into late January/early February possibly, with the semis making a big come-back; hence, my premature long. Do you agree that this may be a possible scenario?
Anyone else's take on this would be appreciated too.
DD
An interesting recent article from Schaeffers Research vis-a-vis semis and ETF's. I can't figure out how to display the tables containing the various lists, and apologize for their absence, however, you can get the gist of the lists from the article itself (Techcharter, I was stopped out of my premature INTC play and a humble nod on this end to your technical prowess and superior wisdom).
Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Focus
- An Introduction to Leading and Lagging Sectors
Nick Perry (regressionchannels@sir-inc.com)9/10/2004 1:57 PM ET
Last week, I introduced this new column that will be a regular feature on SchaeffersResearch.com. This space will highlight some of the tools available in our new ETF center. Regular readers have seen me use Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) to perform sector analysis in the past. Many of you have expressed a desire to be able to retrieve this type data on your own and our new ETF center gives you the ability to do just that, as well as much more.
Note: If you are not familiar with the advantages that ETFs offer, make sure you read the information in our Education and FAQ sections.
When you go to the Leading/Lagging Sectors page, you are presented with two drop-down boxes. The first allows you to sort the ETFs based on their performance. The second allows you to select a time span ranging from one day all the way out to two years. I think that this is an important feature to note because it allows you the flexibility to pick a time frame that matches your investment holding period.
I like to look at sectors relative to each other in order to see what is trends may be developing. I also like to look at multiple time frames to help reveal the underlying flow of money. An added bonus of the ETF Center is that you can directly analyze each ETF by clicking on its ticker symbol. Aside from a snapshot of useful data for the ETF, you can scroll down to see the major component stocks the make up the ETF. This is data I used to surf the web for, but now it is found in one consolidated location!
I started today's analysis by looking to the six-month time period. The tables below show the leading and lagging ETFs over that period based on Thursday's closing price:
Top 10 Performing Sector ETFs over Six Months
I like six months as a nice intermediate-term time frame to give me an idea of where the money has been flowing. On the upside, we see an interesting trend. Internet tops the list but the rest is comprised of energy, basic materials, and commodity-related concerns. In other words, aside from a handful of Internet-related concerns, technology has not been the group attracting dollars.
Bottom 10 Performing Sector ETFs over Six Months
Turning our attention to the worst performing areas shows us some of our more familiar groups like semis, which top the list. Moving past semis presents us with our first interesting dilemma. In the table above we saw that the HHH was top performing group yet now we see other "Internet" related concerns lagging?
This is where my favorite feature of the ETF center comes into play. When you are in the actual lists (the tables I have above are merely pictures) you can click on the ETF symbol to see what companies compose the fund. The HHH is dominated by familiar behemoths such as Yahoo! (YHOO) and eBay (EBAY). Exploring the IIH reveals less well-known stocks such as E.Piphany (EPNY) and Broadvision (BVSN). This implies to me that the strength in the "Internet" group has been centered on few well-known stocks and not a broad-based rush to the all the stocks.
Continuing down the list we see some networking, software, and biotech concerns. In other words, probably the groups of stocks that most investors are likely to be familiar with. Also, this would be a fairly large portion of the Nasdaq Composite.
With this information in hand, I want to turn our attention to a yesterday's activity. The table below shows us the strongest sectors based on Thursday's performance:
Top 10 Performing Sector ETFs on Thursday
In an interesting twist, we see that some of yesterday's strongest gainers are the ones that have lagged over the past six months. Semis, networking, and software all make the list as well as a few of the leaders such as energy and oil.
It is a little early to try and say exactly what this means, but the outperformance of the lagging groups does give us something to keep an eye on. It could simply be a case of the most beaten-up groups seeing a small rebound. In the world of Wall Street, this is sometimes referred to as a "dead cat bounce." (I didn't make up that term but it is one you are likely to see so I thought I would throw it out there.) If that is the case, we should see these groups lose momentum fairly quickly.
If these groups hold their ground, the next thing to watch is how the intermediate-term leaders perform. If they begin to lose strength, it would be a sign of sector rotation as some shift their money from one group and into another. In other words, it doesn't necessarily signal a renewed interest in the overall market, just that preferences for committed capital are shifting.
However, those are only two scenarios; a third one exists. Should the both the former leaders and former laggards both begin to perform, it would signal new money is flowing into the overall market. Given that current complacency we have been tracking, I would rule that as the least likely of the three scenarios, but as the market has shown, anything can happen.
As I said when I introduced this column, it may seem like simplistic information, but my experience has been that many times we overlook the basics. At least for me, that is a recipe for disaster. Just knowing this data tells me which groups have held up and which have seen money outflows. By tracking it going forward, we can help gauge not only where it is going but if there appears to be renewed interest in the overall market.
Nick Perry (regressionchannels@sir-inc.com)
Investor's Edge for the Week of 8/23/2004
Christopher Johnson
8/23/2004 8:19 AM ET
As we discussed last week, the market is emerging from an earnings season that has offered investors mixed results. While the number of companies that beat expectations came in stronger than historical averages, it happened amid outlooks that seem questionable. And though the market's fundamental picture may be loosening up, the technicals continue to give the impression that longer-term support could be eroding underneath investors' feet.
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Both fundamentals and technicals will certainly come into focus this week, as the political season heat gets turned up a notch or two with the beginning of the Republican National Convention in New York City. Speaking of NYC and for those keeping score at home, the S&P 500 Index (SPX: sentiment, chart, options) closed last week at 1,098 and change, about five points above the SPX close on September 10, 2001. Wouldn't it be timely for the Republicans to be able to say that the market is still above pre-9/11 levels? Just a thought.
Last week's market activity looked and smelled like a bounce from an oversold condition. Unfortunately, this market has the feel of a medicine ball bouncing off the floor rather than something with more resilience. According to the RSI for the S&P 100 Index (OEX: sentiment, chart, options) , the market's oversold bounce has run its course. After this technical indicator hit an oversold reading a little more than a week ago, it most recently has moved to levels indicative of a slowing market.
Scanning the charts, a few "lines in the sand" stood out as ones that I'll be watching this week. First, the SPX's 10-week moving average, which held the broad market at bay in late July and could be in position to do so again. Currently this trendline resides at the 1,102 mark, and when combined with its neighbor - the round-number 1,100 mark - it could provide a short-term bump in the road for the market. As if I needed to add another potential bump, the SPX's 10-month moving average resides a wedge shot from the 1,100 mark at 1,114. Investors should expect the market to kick into rally mode should it surpass these resistance levels, but I'm not holding my breath too long as the building overhead resistance may prove too much for the current market.
From a sentiment perspective, the market lately hit some pessimistic extremes, albeit quietly. The Rydex Nova / Ursa ratio finally reached levels that have marked recent market bottoms (see chart below). This shift in sentiment to a pessimistic extreme adds some positive fuel to the market's fire, as it signifies an extreme in recent selling to accompany the technically oversold market. Similarly, our all-exchange equity put/call ratio is trying to break into a new declining pattern that would be bullish for the market. Though the current ratio readings have shifted the trend into a decline, those of you familiar with these columns know that I will be waiting another week or so before considering this to be an all-points bullish signal given the ratio's tendency to put in fake-out tops this year.
On the Nasdaq front, the troubling pattern of continuously lower readings in our Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQ: sentiment, chart, options) put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) continues. The ratio's current 1% percentile rank means that the ratio is sitting among its lowest levels of the year. Readings this low indicate very optimistic sentiment among QQQ options traders, which sounds a cautious tone for the shares from our perspective.
The following table displays the SOIR, SOIR percentile rank, short interest (SI), short-interest ratio (SIR), and Zacks data for notable companies slated to report earnings this week. By way of quick review, optimistic extremes (low SOIR or percentile rank, low SI or SIR, and/or a high percentage of "buy" ratings) can often signal an overbought or saturated market for a stock, making it difficult for the stock to climb higher, even in the wake of a good earnings report. Pessimistic extremes (high SOIR or percentile rank, high SI or SIR, and/or low percentage of "buy" ratings) often signal a stock that can more easily move to the upside, especially if the company reports favorable earnings.
The bottom line for the market this week and beyond hangs on its ability to break through the overhead resistance discussed above. We will likely be rewarded with more short-term rally activity should the market move successfully above these levels. Helping this potential rally will be the skepticism we are observing in our sentiment indicators as it begins to unwind in the form of increased buying from the sidelines. Longer-term investors should watch this activity closely, though, as this market could be derailed fairly easily.
Christopher Johnson
Uh oh.EoM
Waiting for entry pull-backs, or ST resistance violations on high volume on KMX, WMT and JNPR.
DD
Oops, just read this, not the only one (sigh of relief...)...
Blissbull, are you out there and still playing INTC? Think accumulation is going on. Just entered deep in the money calls.
I'm probably the only one here who thinks market is setting up for short time big rally. VIX doesn't support my hypothesis though, so sort of scratching my head here.
DD
Airedale, a much belated thank you for clarifying weekends/Hurst cycles for me in July. My computer was at the 'doctor's' for several weeks and I was unable to get online. Now I have to dig back through the posts so I can find your reply and print it out. Good trading to you and everyone else here.DD