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Fair enough. The opportunity cost of this investment grows daily. I do wonder if non opiod competitors will make this irrelevant soon. It is a valid question.
Fair, I will tell you I told you so. Waiting years for a diminishing return is not a good investment strategy. Competition is getting closer each day and they aren't all in the opiod market.
No one will stop you from your right to lose money. Let's check back with each other in a few weeks. Mark today's pps $0.143. Where shall it be then?
Hype it is. The thought that commentary from shareholders on a board can stem a loss is mistaken. The pps drops with odd end of day interventions and net worths diminish with it. Each day provides objective viewers cause for alarm. The intraday trends show the true trajectory and the only real reason the market value will increase is a demonstration of value from the company. The CC didn't achieve this for anyone other than the loyal few. The fews purchasing power is unfortunately not enough to propel it to new highs and the number seems to be shrinking. This suggests the best course is to sell now.
Convenient???
A sell off would kick in if we hit $24 but should hold above $25.25. We have had 2 days of profit taking so I could also see a buying back in with 2 hours left. The 24.5 and 25 calls have heavy open. So there may be a push to close ITM.
After lunch we will see the real move. Volume was a bit light prior to lunch.
They are predictable. See GRPN CEO on CNBC?
Sort of fizzled. Tomorrow will be more telling.
It will be fun to watch the remainder of the week. Long weekends have funny effects on traders. Still not sure about writing the short term covered calls. $35 would be a good day! Drinks on me.
Variations on valuations models do not support the current market valuation without baking in a high probability of SQ approval. That being said it will require further investment and significant allotments of time to achieve this value.
What is not considered is the competition in this optimistic view. Each day of delay allows competitors to invest and get closer to parity. There is also the suggestion that competition is only from within the opioid market which is myopic at best. Pain reduction comes in many forms and the choices increase each day.
An investment here will not as a result generate a return for at a minimum 6 months. That is assuming the "path forward" yields results which is also an unknown. The opportunity cost thus is too large given the better investment alternatives. This can be revisited at a later date for changes but most likely shares will be cheaper to buy.
My prediction is $35 by end of year. Happy to go into long reasoning why. That being said I am also realistic and know things can change on a dime. My position is long shares but planning to hedge in various ways across time including puts, writing covered calls and the occasional gold calls.
I like the company and prospects. Wish you all health, wealth and prosperity.
This has legs. Long way to go for fair value. Valuations on these are usually based on sale multiples. Typical buyout os over 2x. That is $11 pps. Know it is a lot but only 20% of this floats. The rest is held by institutions / insiders. The move won't happen until they join in as they hold controlling interest.
I have been known to be wrong before :). Still trying to figure out my next trade after GRPN and BAC. May open a new GLD hedge. It will give me something to think about this weekend camping. Think GRPN has much more to go. The cc this am was really good.
I would expect sell from profit taking. Just my opinion. Especially going into a holiday weekend. Most traders don't like open positions into long weekends. They would look bad if they didn't capture the profit.
You may be right. Was planning to protect my position with covered calls that buy some puts. Short term I do expect the volatility you foresee as well.
I agree in part. My thought was to sell some covered calls and potentially buy some small put positions. Will hold my shares through it in that case.
Yep, I expect that to continue as well. Seems congress is digging in their heels so it may stall some moves. Also expect Russia and China to add to instability which tends to dampen the market as a whole.
Exactly. If it is insulation it could be for anything. Phoenix is a hot place. The sign is still the old company and the cars in front are still from neighbor biz.
Yep. Had a great couple weeks. Considering a new hedge. Maybe sept or oct gold. Writing the calls on bac might be a good move. Strong move ups the premiums and may get range bound again soon. Watch GRPN. Could be a banner week. A single hint of BO talks and this goes crazy. This sector has been valued at 2-3x sales in recent BOs. A bit aggressive but would be a nice day :)
Let's see how it goes. The cc will be interesting but very strong. With low float and high short % this could move very strong. My puts are dead but who cares. 10k shares will more than offset it. Waiting to hear some news on CNBC. Will spike interest.
Even if the panels are for grow rooms they are very far away from making $1.5mm revenue. That is net income of $400k divided by how many shares? Still doesn't support the market value.
Considering another flip. Will wait until next week. The moves are very unusual. Watch GRPN tomorrow. Could be good. I hold shares and puts.
Just to be clear I don't have a position on what the panels will be used for nor do I truly know what they are. I just provided time stamped pics. This company to me is dead money at best.
I have tightened my trailing stop to 5% from 8%. May take this off and write eom mar covered calls by Friday. On GRPN have some $3 puts. Pretty cheap protection if they get killed tomorrow.
Interesting. I saw them and couldn't tell what they are for. But they are there I can confirm. Will have pics on my Twitter account in a couple hours.
Should hold $24 barring any crazy talk. The new Treasury Sec still hasn't said anything since getting confirmed. He is speaking now. Let's see what this is first.
Any ideas on what those things are for in the pics?
Keeps going. Expecting a strong close and should stay above $24. I would expect some profit taking on Friday with options exp. GRPN is doing good. Strong volume with light float. Tomorrow will be a strong move one way or another. Buying a few puts here for protection. Personally thought it was beaten down unnecessarily though.
Taking a slight pause. New resistance at $24. Closed out my near term hedge last night and looking to reset by the eow. Writing some covered calls still sounds good. What do you think?
Ya, noticed that earlier. The program trades kick in usually around then but the buyers weren't strong enough to push higher. My guess is that many are waiting for tomorrow. That will be telling. I am getting a feeling is the fed is backing away from an aggressive rate increase strategy. My gut so not scientific. Lots of uncertainty to contend with. I might extend my hedge depending on Janet. What is your take?
I heard "end of year" and "need additional capital" as key phrases on the cc. Then other items were typically a year away as I heard. Transcripts will be an easy fact check. If so, this is dead money until end of year. Maybe revisit this stock in Oct/Nov. until then money to be made elsewhere. GLTY
No updates since July. What FB page are you looking at?
Photos from the same place that is supposed to generating $1.5mm per year in revenue now? Should be easy to do. Takes 5min from employees since they are working there and producing revenue.
Any thoughts on hedges going into earnings? Was looking at Feb 24 puts.
Not a bad option. Myself I am considering writing some covered calls to get a bit of cash while I wait for a pop. Any thoughts on that?
My hedge is actually GLD calls.
Cash out my twtr put. Nice 200% gain. Looks like BAC is turning. Not sure if it will hold but a small negative to flat open would be ideal. Profit taking seems to be over on my GLD hedge as well. Now just waiting for GRPN to turn but that won't happen until earnings.
Well I am riding it down for the next hour or so. Next week I have no idea. Rode it up during the bo rumors so happy to play either side. It hit the 20% haircut I expected now but calling a bottom on twtr is tough.
What other names you in?
Ya, it is sad but looks dead from here. Maybe NH can pull a rabbit out of his hat but wouldn't put my money on it. I will listen to the CC on Monday but sadly don't see the hope anymore. Delays cost money not only in lost revenue but also allows competition to catch up. I hope I am wrong for the many with money in here.
Loving it. Have the Mar3 $17 put. Bought at $.50 holding today. Any inputs on good sell point?