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OK, but all patients did NOT get off Aricept early on. If you listen to the Prof. McFarlane interview it sounds like this is a recent thing that a few of the patients (at the time of the interview) had ceased treatment with Aricept of their own accord. What McG and a few others have been discussing was the possibility that more and more patients are dropping Aricept (by their individual decisions) and it is causing the whole graph to rise, pulling all the scores up. This latest data read out came after the McFarlane interview and to say that the data is "encouraging" and the researchers are "encouraged" would seem to be a gross understatement. It seems agreed and it is Dr. Missling's way to let "the Data" speak for itself. "The Data" seems to be singing beautifully in a clear voice to those with the ears and heart for that tune, the scientists. The fact that, as McFarlane stated, some have started to drop Aricept may have been a fortunate twist of fate giving the researchers a larger and earlier look at the workings of A2-73 unfettered by the presence of Aricept competing at the Sigma-1. There is a possibility that the continuation of Ph2 Part C could be feathered into Ph2/3 if the FDA includes/permits such a design. Thereby, having a small number of the N of Ph2/3 already in the course of the trial giving an early look at what to expect and study.
Whatever happened it seems clear that it was "a beautiful thing."
In regards to near-term share price, I think he is as unconcerned about that as he is unconcerned about funding for the trials. As Dr. Missling stated his primary duty is to manage the risk of the clinical trials, AND the people of Avanvex Life Sciences "Think differently and have NO FEAR!"
Happy New Year everyone. 2017 should be exciting!
As Prof McFarlane recently explained, the decisions have been made by some patients to discontinue Aricept. This was not a decision of Anavex management or the Caufield scientists running the study, again as explained by Prof. McFarlane. There was no "switching." All were on some dose of A2-73 already, some with Aricept some without. Some have decided to stop Aricept and as you point out it would have been discussed with the physician that RXed Aricept to start with.
Maybe this is why they do not call it "Mono Group" because it was not predefined that way and all those that stopped Aricept did of their own accord and at different times. Further, since it is an individual decision the scientists running the study and AVXL (understand AVXL does not run the study rather it is run by McFarlane, his superiors, and staff) can not stop any participants from restarting to take Aricept. But some have stopped of their own accord, as Prof. McFarlane stated on the record.
There has been a lot of discussion on this subject. Prof. McFarlane's testimony about this is the most important, go back and review what he said regarding this matter of discontinuing Aricept and by whom it was decided.
Some would with any confusion to try to torpedo this "Ship of Hope." Yet She sails on!
Think clearly, examine all the evidence, then make your own conclusions.
Go A2-73, Anavex and the Caulfield researchers!
Missling stated that managing clinical trial risks is his primary and most important duty. (WST interview) Some would say he is doing a superb job of that.
The Australian Govt. funded the Caufield trial. I thought most AVXL "Investors" knew that already. Caufield is the lead conductor of the trial and is independent of AVXL. Anavex is the "sponsor" of the trial and provided the design, drug and modifications but independent scientists are "running" the trial.
It is not "philanthropy" it is a Govt. grant to hopefully eventually benefit the people of Australia.
The money Aussie Govt. gave to AVXL was on AVXL balance sheet. The money the Aussie Govt. gave to Caufield is on its balance sheet. Check your facts and the 10Ks that is how accounting works.
The dismissal actually came in 2016. Sounds like he is timing PRs for best effect. This might not be the only PR held over to when the Market is in full swing at the start of 2017.
This statement is pure supposition and could not be further from the truth. Just as in the USA the bulk of Australian Govt. Funding goes directly to the Australian research groups carrying out the trials. AND NO WOULD NOT BE ON AVXL Balance sheet. And YES Caufield Hospital is one of the Institutions doing the trial.
Unless you are trying to make the case that the Alfred Group is doing the trial, the funding of an Anavex trial (to date AND in the future) would necessarily show up on AVXL Balance sheet. It might be footnoted in Alfred's if indeed it is their own trial, but I do not see that claim.
Orphan designation was designed to make it profitable to develop drugs for these rare afflictions. Seven years of market exclusivity make for a high priced drug that the insurance companies must pay for. It is such a good business that some companies only work on drugs for orphan indications, like BioMarin.
But more important it will be a quick trial and if successful show that A2-73 has a profound effect on CNS processes, blowing away the shroud of FUD surrounding Anavex. Further, after approval AVXL could easily go to the market for a secondary IPO which would totally revalue AVXL stock with the potential to skyrocket the stock removing funding issues going forward. Of course the market will realize this soon after the initial top-line results start coming in from the Rett's trial. The "Gig will be up" so to speak, on the 16% held short and the future of AVXL will be largely determined by the outcome of the quick Rett's trial. While the "war" will continue the Rett's battle will be the pivotal action. The fact that they will do the Rett's trial first should lay bare the disingenuous claims by AF, JF and others that AVXL is a scam as complete nonsense and maliciously contrived. After all, if it is a scam why do a quick "make or break" Rett's trial first? Why not drag out the "scam" with a long and expensive ALZ trial first and raise a lot of money along the way. That would be the modus operandi of a "scam." A successful Rett's trial will bring quick credibility and much improved financial condition. Oh but wait, Missling has been very frugal about raising money and has taken the majority of his compensation in well "out of the money options", this alone should be a strong clue that AVXL is no scam and management believes in the prospects of success.
Go AVXL!
Great find! Sounds like they will be "racing" into the new year to get the A2-73 Rett's trial started.
I agree and from what we know so far with A2-73 any early look by the FDA should result in a positive outcome, because early looks by FDA are mostly about AEs of which A2-73 has nil or helpful to speed the process.
I suspect that AVXL will see similar positive interim intervention by the FDA in the upcoming Rett's trial and again in the dose optimized placebo controlled ALZ Ph2/3.
There are several types I believe. One is a "Futility Committee" set up by the trial sponsor (Company) independent of those scientist's running the trial to report back to the Sponsor Company if it believes it would be a waste of money and resources to continue so stop early. Another is FDA monitor of adverse events to put temporary halt to the trial if there is concern for safety until the matter is investigated. A third is an FDA early halt and approval when it becomes so apparent that public health will benefit from early approval.
Go AVXL
A2-73 Science Fact or Fiction? The molecule ICE-9 was a creation of satirical science fiction writer Kurt Vonnegut is his novel Cat's Cradle. One would be hard pressed to wrap one's mind around the MOA of ICE-9 and believe that it could actually raise the freezing temperature of H2O and if released into the water table would eventually freeze all water on Earth. Even not believing, (and assuming one did not want to destroy most all life on the planet) would one want to release ICE-9 into the water table by flushing it down the toilet?
Now we have a molecule that might have wide ranging effects on the ecosystem composed of cellular processes in the human body. From ALZ to Melanoma and a lot of deadly and destructive maladies inbetween. Some of feeble minds or blackened hearts would have us flush A2-73 and its Sponsors, Anavex Life Sciences, down the toilet because they can not understand the MOA and it sounds too fantastic that it must be "science fiction", "a fraud/scam", "placebo effect" or the latest "a weird coincidence that happened with twenty-five."
Sometimes it is well to realize that truth may be stranger than fiction. Change will happen and it accelerates over time. Fifty years ago people would have imagined that we would by now have flying cars, what most did not see (outside of Bell Labs) that we would communicate and interact with knowledge in an "Information Age" with a "Magic Lantern" we held in our hands.
Happy 2017
"Changes will come,,,Long May You Run!"
One reason that many "Market" participants dismiss AVXL science is that they eat the dog food that "Wall Street" feeds them. Many of the Longs of Anavex do not eat "Wall Street Dog Food." Many are seasoned traders who have learned over years of experience that listening to Wall Street can be injurious to one's portfolio, others are independent thinkers who have the confidence to do their own DD and decided for themselves based on evidence of the science.
Most market participants on a retail level are not that engaged, they depend for their information on "Wall Street Analysts" so they eat that dog food. Therefore, they can be manipulated by the "Ivan Pavlovs of Wall Street" and heed the call as the bell is rung.
Thank you for all your great posts!
2017 Might be a "watershed" year for Anavex Life Sciences.
Happy 2017!
"AVXL is not a vast forest, just 25 trees" is what some seem to say and their proof is "because the Market prices it as such." They can not see from their view the implications of the data so far because it does not fit their frame of reference. A different paradigm. All they can see is the small N of 25/32. "The Market" I guess does not understand or has not discovered what is happening here. I do not know if there is any middle ground. This might be as Falconer describes the biggest development in medicine since antibiotics or maybe all the positive data and results are just an enormous fluke, a incredibly improbable statistical outlier. Something so wonderful and different can not possibly be true because if it was it would be too huge!
But what do I care. I will continue to buy what I am convinced is a vast forest for the cost of a stand of twenty five trees. Ha Ha
Go Anavex Life Sciences!
STICKY THIS POST PLEASE!
Thank you for this great find! Posts like this are what make this board invaluable to check every morning!
Bravo!
Go AVXL!
To get a true picture of R&D efforts as opposed to Administrative expenses one needs to back out the present value of the stock options compensation as they did not actually cost AVXL anything. Also to see the amount of R&D one should include the research and expenses borne by others outside the company such as Australia direct payments on ALZ and University and Foundation researchers work on other indications of AVXL pipeline. Just because some of this research did not cost the company does not mean it was not being done. One might view this as smart money management by Missling and the BOD.
Go AVXL!
The Key Executive Compensation Plan is not about generating cash for the company. That is just a side benefit. It is about retaining Key Executives and aligning their interests with that of the shareholders without costing the company anything in regards to present cash. Let me see if can make it simple for you. The employee/executive is granted a non-standard option for a strike price higher than the share price when it was issued. That option has a present value calculated by the Black-Scholes Equation. That amount is reported on the Form 10K as an expense to the company during that year it was granted although the company did not have to spend cash. It is a great way to retain valuable executives and key employees without costing the company cash, in fact, the Company will receive cash by issuing the shares when and IF the options are exercised. But to amateurs and retail, it will look like the Company had the present value of the options as an expense when they were granted. That is why some people that do not understand how that works were saying AVXL had high Administration expenses. It is just the way it must be accounted for on the books options at present value even though there was no actual cost to the company.
The great thing about this other than it did not cost the company anything is it aligns these Executives interest in a higher share price with the other shareholders. Also, it shows outside professional investors that the Executives believe in the prospects of the Company and share price appreciation.
Go AVXL!
"Does Management believe in the Company and share price appreciation potential?" This is one of the most important questions Professional Investors ask. Key executives accepting as compensation stock options priced greatly above the market price at the time they were awarded is strong evidence that Management believes so. Further, it awards them for performance going forward and aligns Management interests with the interests of the shareholders.
Go AVXL!
A Brillant observation/deduction! I like the way you think. Another possible move on the chess board.
Go AVXL!
They are sold into the market at any time Dr. Missling wants to exercise them when they are above the strike price. Typically they would be exercised in trances accompanying share price appreciation by company developments. Of course, the exercise would require a SEC Form 4K filing within two business days. If the Executive wants to really send a bullish message he then uses the profits or some of them to buy company stock on the market and list that in the same 4K, which then takes on a celebratory tone. Professional investors like those types of 4Ks.
Go Anavex Life Science and its brilliant team of Executives, BOD and Scientific Advisors.
He does not have to come up with the money to exercise the options they just need to be above the strike price then they are distributed into the market at the current market price and Dr. Missling gets to keep the difference between strike price and the exercise price. So yes it is in Missling's interest to get the stock up as high as possible before exercising. This benefits both the Executive granted the options and the company as he exercises them.
Great way to compensate an Executive that a company wants to keep and it shows that the Executive has great faith in the prospects of the company.
It was a very bold and smart move by Anavex BOD.
Go Anavex Life Sciences
So now you show a complete lack of knowledge on all the relevant parameters. You have no clue what the "news" is. You do not know who is buying up all the stock and why. And apparently, you have not even read the most current 10K that shows just how much cash they have and whether or not there is any need for raising additional capital.
You just shorted a pop, apparently because it usually works for you. Which I grant you parabolic moves usually correct.
When the news is released on CYCC short positions might be trapped. You have a real potential to get an education in the concept of "unlimited losses" with this short trade.
Good luck with this one. LOL
Which would be roughly one Biogen share per AVXL share. 1/2 share Biogen per AVXL share would be a serious offer. That would be approx $5.6 Bil and on par with the soon to be consummated Hemophilia division spin-off so somewhat elegant and more palatable to Biogen shareholders. But first, there would need to be some positively shocking news from Biogen regarding the tests BIIB is conducting. All pure speculation but fun to dream about.
More likely to me is that AVXL slugs it out alone at least through the Rett's Approval which could be as early as late 2017. The value and MC of AVXL will be much greater I would surmise than a quick sale to Biogen but riskier. However, I think the odds of A2-73 being approved to treat Rett's is extremely high. Therefore, I would prefer to go it alone until such time as we have our first approval.
Go Anavex Life Sciences!
How is that working for you?
No news? You mean "No News" you know about, do you not? Why do you think that if there were material developments the Company would want the likes of you to know about it? I guess you did not get the memo.
Go ahead just short the pops when you have no clue why the stock is moving up. Brillant!
Merry Christmas to you as well, and thank you for all your valuable posts this past year. And Happy New Year! New all-time highs for AVXL in 2017! (And that is no joke!)
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a great New Year to all!
5.32 Red! Croupier, place my money on $5.32 red on or before Jan 16, 2017.
That is crazy because that is what I see when I look at the uptrend since the last low. I like looking at this chart it is informative without being overwhelming. While all points are possible I heavily discount the $3.57 before EOY as tweaked outlier end of the bell curve. An oddsmaker would likely assign $4.28 end of Jan as the pivot or break-even-point. More likely to me would be a break of $5 by end of Jan as shown on your chart.
However, I see IF and that is a HUGE if the price action continues in this pattern of fits and starts we MIGHT see $5 plus by January 9, 2017. In fact just so people can make fun of me later I will nail down to $5.22 by mid-January 2017. (I know the market watches me because as soon as I sell a little the price goes up! Ha Ha! And when I price an option all pile in right behind me! But it is all noise! Automatic triggered BS because I am the one that completes the trades.)
My candles are not telling me anything from a day to day says it is neutral. I have to take a 50-yard look at the last six weeks. As you say price action needs to smoke it through 4.20-4.28 with force. Bollinger bands are tightening up and usually breaks hard one way or another. Last time I thought it would break skyward instead fell to earth. 50/50 so I will stake on breaking up because it is my natural bias. Like you, I like to keep some stinking bids triggers. The "silver lining" I got some cheapies haha!
In the end, we will thank AF and "the Short Cabal" for keeping the lid on this stock for so long so we could accumulate a large position or we will say oh $hit I should have listened I could have bought a V-8!
I firmly believe that while Microsoft made the most millionaires Anavex will make the most Philanthropists. Many and maybe most of this very board.
The Journey has just begun.
Keep Calm and Carry On!
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
LOOK!! One's Brain on A2-73
Agreed 100% except Biogen's new CEO is a French National, educated in Paris, born in Morrocco. Of the ethnicity of his parents, I do not know because it is irrelevant. I suspect in the future he will naturalize into a citizen of the USA but that would be his personal choice. It does not matter as far as the Company is concerned as Biogen is global. He could remain as a French national and pay the extra taxes in gratitude to his home country for providing him with such an excellent education.
Of more importance to me is his China connections, those waters are not easily navigated and he has extensive experience there with Merck.
Anavex?Biogen?
Might be Anyone's guess? 50% down if not? 1000-10000% up if yes?
Believe me, I am with you brother.
If Anavex and Biogen do hook up the combination, if Anavex's platform pans out, would more than likely dominate CNS pharmacopeia for decades. Just what Biogen is hoping for. Now query this, if (big time)Biogen shareholders think there might be a chance of getting more Biogen shares by buying Anavex shares (on the cheap) would they take the risk?
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Sleep well all you brave and brilliant LONGS!
What makes A2-73 better than the other Sigma-1 and muscarinic drugs is that it has a profound beneficial effect on dysfunctional neurons. Ananex scientists and Management have not proven it to the "market" or to the FDA to an extent to allow approval for sale at this point. But they have proven it to themselves and to Biogen Idec. At this point the scramble is to learn as much as possible about the MOA so they can attempt to "occupy the field" with their pipeline including A3-71 and the Sigma-1 discovery platform. That is the purpose of the Biogen testing. Anavex and Biogen are already allied in some fashion. The major push now in the development is not to speed approval for ALZ but to nail down the MOA so Anavex and Biogen together can dominate the field of CNS drugs for decades.
If one does not realize that Biogen is working on the discovery of the MOA and that Anavex knew that is what they would do when they got A2-73 to test then think deeper.
Therefore, Avanvex would not have agreed to the MTA without the framework of the future collaboration in place.
Now, Biogen has there new CEO who will be the one to have the ceremonious honor of "Driving the Golden Spike" joining these companies in this endeavor.
Go Anavex/Biogen!
Happy New Year to all the Longs!
2017 will be a great year and you have earned it!
Avavex/Biogen announcement would trigger the BlueSky Tornado Candle.
Rare indeed but overdue for AVXL. I am glad I am loaded for bear.
First move, close the deal for the most monumental tie up ever.
GLTAL Longs this should be a decidedly GREEN week.
Merry Christmas!
"DOJI STAR" Buy Signal was confirmed nicely today!
Looks like it might be a very good week for the LONGS!
GLTAL
Merry Christmas!
There is a possibility, and what you post is supporting evidence for the hypothesis, that Biogen/Avavex have come to some terms of an agreement. But will it be for four indications or five? Two or three major indications. ALZ and PD being major. MS would be a major. The others are "Orphan." If the MS study pans out should greatly increase AVXL licensing/partnership value.
Speculation for sure but there is some evidence. No one has spotted a fire yet, but one can see and smell the smoke.
GLTAL
Merry Christmas!
Yes of course then it will be to late to get out in front of it and the cautious investor will pay much more for the stock. However he will have risked less. These will be the big funds and institutions that will wait until Rett's results then they might pile in. If one doubts that A2-73 will work in Rett's then one would be wise to sell at least part of one's AVXL stock before those initial results are in. If one is less risk adverse and believes A2-73 will stop seizures or at least provide some clear benefit they might see a huge price appreciation as A2-73 is shown to be powerful and effective.
As soon as Anavex announces the start of the Rett's trial a light might switch on in many investors minds. Thinking "Why do the short quick trial first if the Company was very sure it would work in Rett's?" And,,, "If this was not for real and a scam like the talking heads AF and other writers said there is no way they would do the quick short trial first."
Win or Lose the whole War on ALZ by Anavex might rest on the outcome of the Rett's trial which will conclude in 2017. Surely the stock price will respond dramatically to the news of and the results as they are announced.
Good Luck to all Longs! We might be looking at a decidedly UP week if the technical patterns hold.
Merry Christmas
What if the Rett's Ph2 trial starts and ends soon and A2-73 shows the kind of efficacy it showed in the murine models by stopping seizures? The Rett's trial if I recall correctly is envisioned to last 6 weeks to 90 days. Unlike ALZ where there are measurements of gradients of cognition and other markers; stopping seizures is much more binary. A2-73 will either stop them (as it did in mice) or make them much less frequent, or it will not. We will know very soon. If A2-73 shows the type of shocking therapeutic benefit in Rett's afflicted girls as it did in mice will not the scientific community and the public do an about face as to the perceived chances of A2-73 in ALZ and other CNS maladies?
A victory in the battle against Rett's would not ensure a victory in the ALZ battle but it would ensure that Anavex could continue to fight with A2-73 against ALZ and in other battles against other conditions and would allow Anavex to bring along A3-71 to fight ALZ.
The Rett's Ph2 trial will be first according to the latest strategy of the Company. This MIGHT be the watershed event the determines the fate of many suffering patients and future trajectory of Anavex Life Sciences and it's "New Paradigm" in the battles against intransigent conditions(and scientists at the BPs) like ALZ and Parkinson's.
A failure in the Rett's trial would likely mean a long and lonely fight for the future of Anavex compounds.
Missling and AVXL will fight the Rett's battle first! Why would they do this if they thought there was a chance of a failure?
If they thought it might fail in Rett's and they were a scam company as AF and J Fin espouse would they not just do a long ALZ trial first so they could in the words of AF and the other short shills "continue to dupe investors all the while." No, they will fight the Rett's battle first, win it, forever silence the critics and attract new and powerful allies for the battles against ALZ and Parkinson's.
Engaging the Rett's trial first is the very definition of fearless
confidence. Think about it!
Remember the words of Christopher Missling spoken in Washington DC last year when asked why he felt Anavex can succeed where BP had failed. "Because we think differently and have NO FEAR!"
Go Avanex Life Sciences!
Good Luck to all longs and to the brave men and women of Anavex!
Merry Christmas
If A3-71 proves out to be better than A2-73 then the 5-7 years exclusivity will be more than adequate time to bring it to market before exclusivity decays on A2-73. Then will patients and doctors want to use A3-71 or a generic form of A2-73 for ALZ? Also will another company want to spend the money to get its generic form approved when they know Anavex has A3-71 waiting in the wings? Anavex can get separate use patents for different indications for A2-73 that would have years of exclusivity for those indications. And let us not forget the Sigma-1 discovery platform and the rest of the pipeline.
Go AVXL!
Merry Christmas!
Dr. Missling's Contract was up. He was a free agent on the open market. Do you think he MIGHT have been fielding competing offers from other companies? The BOD did what it needed to to keep him. What would have happened to the price of your LONG shares had he left? The BOD compensated him wisely and frugally in a large part with future stock options and as the other "Jimmy" pointed out will bring the Company cash as they are exercised in the future. In addition Dr. Missling's financial interests are now even more deeply aligned with the other shareholders.
He was a brilliant hire three years ago, look at where he has brought the Company and what has been accomplished. Milestone after milestone on time and under a tight budget. If you want to compare, compare with CEOs that have done as well under these extreme adverse conditions and compare AT THE TIME THE CONTRACT WAS UP! If there is any complaining to do it would be at the BOD for not signing him to a longer initial contract at the time he was first promoted to the CEO position.
Good Luck to All Longs!
Merry Christmas!
LOOK AT AVXL CHART with your own fresh Eyes! Look at the price trend since since the "Sea Change" of early November, look at the volume lately as compared to the two months prior. Look how the price action seesaws weekly up/down by the week. Look how the price ends a new week after a down week. No need to go anywhere to see a chart look at the one here on I-HUB.
Now ask yourselves what do expect the price action to be this coming week? More importantly what do you think the other market participants think the price action will be next week? Look at the last three daily candles. Notice the low of day incrementally higher. See how last Friday finished a weekly down trend in a "Doji Star" daily candle. Go back in time and look at previous "doji stars" on AVXL daily charts. Notice the next days candle and the following few days candles. Ask yourself what might be the best price one is able to buy at this coming week? If you concluded that approx $4.08-4.09 would be the lowest price that AVXL is LIKELY to go over the next few trading days you are following ancient "Japanese Candle Stick" theory.
Comments welcome and appreciated, agreed or nay say.
Good luck to all on the LONG SIDE!
Go Avavex Life Sciences!
Merry Christmas
Same here added all day to try to hold the LINE at $3.99 and again at $3.93. I think we can relax now. I think that was just the natural consolidation of the pre-CTAD run-up. We stalled at the $4.88 recent highs resistance three times. I think the price can punch through it sharply soon. We formed a nice star doji reversal signal candle today on good volume in the late reversal action. I feel we are in for a nice run up from here technically and the company is executing well on its development plans.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Everyone. 2017 should be a fantastic year for Anavex and those lucky 300 trial participants and there families and a very prosperous New Year for the brave longs of AVXL stock.
("sigh of relief" I am glad that consolidation action seems to have been completed today!)
GLTAL
Go AVXL!