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SPY SDS SSO closed all SDS 17.57-17.60; long SSO 50.90.
SPY SSO long SSO 50.90
SPY SDS sold balance of SDS @17.60, now flat.
Oddlot
SPY SDS sold half of SDS 17.60. Price came down to support, and a break of SPY 130.90 will be a tentative break of support while 130.40 will be confirmation.
Oddlot
$TRIN overbought and implications.
Thanks espirit for posting this chart. Cant do it from my phone. Historically, a reasonable use of trin is to assume that heavy buys/sells that put CCI into extremes would also put price into extremes, substantially different from the "equilibrium" level. When trin CCI leaves extreme, in this case falls below +100, a buy from SPY CCI with same parameter should have built in value because of being depressed.
Holding bearish position in SDS but will probably go long against trend support if setup is there. Also, OBV is within striking range of a trend reversal into a downtrend. GDP may create several flip-flops before the day is over.
Oddlot
Smooth re trend support:
I am playing the 13 week cycle for trend. Breaking the trendline parallel to MA17 will set that cycle heading lower. Would take roughly.130.40 SPY, which would probably also show OBV sell signal and I would be a rabid bear for awhile.
Oddlot
Smoothie re cci
The parameters for the intraday CCI for 5/10/20 day cycles are 10minCCI() 64/128/256.
5 and 10 day crossed +100 and are still there (sell signal) but the 20 day has come back only to +130, so no signal. Assuming they are correct, we may approx 5 days down while seeking the 10 day low.
Oddlot
surfcat re Richard Dennis
It is all true, and speaks to the importance of trendfollowing. Look for book: The complete Turtle Trader.
Oddlot
Smoothie, welcome aboard. I notice shorts from ziko, kiy, you, me, and a few others. Now lets turn the train around.
Oddlot
SPY SDS added more SDS 17.18 on overbought status. Intraday equivalent of CCI for 20day cycle was +230, and anything over 200 is usually a good short. Time will tell.
Oddlot
SPY SDS added more SDS 17.18 on overbought status. The intraday equivalent CCI for the 20 day cycle was +230. Historically anything +200 or higher is a good short, but time will tell.
Oddlot
Pressed for time, and thought we might crash late in day.
Long SDS 17.59
Long SDS 17.59
SPY OBV signal possible
If we get a good round of selling late in day, such as would occur with a trendline break as described earlier, the OBV could decline below the range of the last 3.5 days and indicate a change in trend to the down side. In conjunction with violation of the MA17, this would say that we may be going down for 6 weeks. While this is in contrast to my general opinion, I try to be openminded.
Oddlot
SPY OBV signal possible
If we get a good round of selling late in day, such as would occur with a trendline break as described earlier, the OBV could decline below the range of the last 3.5 days and indicate a change in trend to the down side. In conjunction with violation of the MA17, this would say that we may be going down for 6 weeks. While this is in contrast to my general opinion, I try to be openminded.
Oddlot
SPY 13 week cycle/trendline signal
The first chart shows the position of the likely top for the 13 week cycle. A TL drawn parallel to a SMA of length 1/4 the length of the cycle in question will usually not be violated until the cycle has topped, and the reaction is often relatively violent. For the 13 week, that would be a MA17. The average is of the closes, and the TL can be drawn against closes or extremes but is often best thru the extreme close of the 17 day period.
I added this TL to the chart and showed a closeup of the daily chart. Note how the LOD is right on it, and IMHO this line will provide an important signal to get out/or go short.
The prior comment re short term H&S pattern is cancelled, as I think the move may be lower, to the SPY 126-127 area.
Oddlot
SPY 13 week cycle/trendline signal
The first chart shows the position of the likely top for the 13 week cycle. A TL drawn parallel to a SMA of length 1/4 the length of the cycle in question will usually not be violated until the cycle has topped, and the reaction is often relatively violent. For the 13 week, that would be a MA17. The average is of the closes, and the TL can be drawn against closes or extremes but is often best thru the extreme close of the 17 day period.
I added this TL to the chart and showed a closeup of the daily chart. Note how the LOD is right on it, and IMHO this line will provide an important signal to get out/or go short.
The prior comment re short term H&S pattern is cancelled, as I think the move may be lower, to the SPY 126-127 area.
Oddlot
I think we should agree to disagree.
SPY 13 week cycle
The 13 week cycle is due in this area or next 2 weeks. The low point just prior to a breakout is usually a good trough reference, and next week or so would be the middle of an idealized 13 week cycle. The potential is there for a significant top, probably next week, but coming. Watch your indicators, and your risk!!
SPY potential H&S pattern
The short term uptrend has potentially been broken, and price retreated to support which has held several times. A break of that support around SPY 131.00 will have created a head and shoulder pattern with objective of SPY 129.75 area.
One of the short term cycles is 5-7 days, and this is day#5, so I would expect 131 to fail, and price to try for the 130 area. As long as OBV holds up above the levels of 3.5 days prior, this is still the beginnings of a BULL mkt with obj IMHO of SPY 140.
SPY potential H&S pattern
The short term uptrend has potentially been broken, and price retreated to support which has held several times. A break of that support around SPY 131.00 will have created a head and shoulder pattern with objective of SPY 129.75 area.
One of the short term cycles is 5-7 days, and this is day#5, so I would expect 131 to fail, and price to try for the 130 area. As long as OBV holds up above the levels of 3.5 days prior, this is still the beginnings of a BULL mkt with obj IMHO of SPY 140.
kiy re stochrsi status, actions.
Your are the guru, but at this point, if not inhibited by trend, one might consider equivalent of bracket orders using CCI 64/256. Such as: liquidate longs or go short if CCI256 hits +200, or if CCI64 crosses under +100.
The trigger for implementing this action is the movement of stochrsi(105) above .80 and thus both short term CCI and stochrsi are overbought.
Oddlot
SPY SSO buy range.
Will buy SPY and SSO basis SPY 130.38-129.75 with stop under 127.40SPY.
Oddlot
SPY SSO buy range
Orders to buy SPY and SSO basis SPY between 130.38-129.85; stop below 127.40
Oddlot
kiy re stochrsi
Comment pertained to the set for the 5 day cycle. Stochrsi(105) is not yet ovetbought, whereas the CCI is, but for me it takes both in extremes before a signal can be generated on the way back. In this case, a bull mkt makes this moot, as any signal for me would be interpreted as a take profit and go to the sidelines. Since I am already there, just watching.
Oddlot
Bradley major turndate
Last one 12/28, and trend should continue through the minor dates until the next major date 3/16. Near that point we either turn downward, or we accelerate within the existing trend.
rotor1 re images
It is easier here than CS. After copying the chart image at stockcharts, go to the Ihub message box and when ready to paste it click on "image" on left side of box. The html cpntainer tags sppear with the cursor blinking in the middle. Paste it, move the cursor beyond the tags and you can submit, or continue composing.
Oddlot
Saving old CS Postmarks!!!
I just realized that the valued postmarks from E-Trades Clearstation can be transferred to IHub. If you attempt to reply to the old postmark, the html text is shown, which can be vopied and pasted into a message box at IHub. Before submitting the post, the html container tags (<img=>) have to be changed to the tags used by IHub. Once submitted, if the post is the way you want it then click on "keep" and the message will be kept in your mailbox. I do not know the limits on how many or for how long, or the mechanics for "archiving" but this will give us a shot at keeping our collections.
Good luck
Oddlot
ziko: not that board. The IHub "New CS Board" in free/user groups.
Ziko re post of charts. Compose your text and then put cursor where you want img. Click om right side of box "image" and two tags appear with cursor in between. Paste your chart img thare, move cursor beyond right tag, and then post it.
Oddlot
ziko, good to see you here. I check both boards but most of my time is on the New C S board. Be well.
Oddlot
Replacing CS focus.
The rec list cant be duplicated here. But if you subscribe to stockcharts.com you can replace the Focus page with a little work. You can have 100 lists of stocks, and those can be cteated however you wish, I personally screen for fundamental factors and put various groups in different lists. Then the scan function lets you build technical screens with complicated combinations of indicators that will get to the SMALL LIST to view and judge yourself. As an example, I have as a result 20 stocks with pe under 10, price sales under 1.2, ROA over 7.5, clean balance sheets, and revenue growth that also meet custom TA criteria.
Yes, it costs $30 a month incl realtime charts, but if you are posting charts this solves all the problems and the charts remain live at Investors Hub. Between the screens at finviz.com and scans at stockcharts, there isnt much you cant do except options.
Oddlot
Sam: re posting charts.
If you use stockcharts.com, it is simple. If not, smoothie showed woodfish how to post from an image holding service. So, probably not hard. Re INDU, SPX, or whatever, feel free. No one gets them all right, and many successful trendfollowers get only a third right. There will be no flak because of the past. Just give us your best shot and each person can judge for themselves.
Oddlot
kiy/ki: Oddlot is on usergroup New C S Board. See ya.
Sam: looking forward to your input. There will NOT be the bickering of yore. You have always been civil, and those who are not, regardless of the circumstance, get a a warning and then they are history.
Oddlot
Shelly: req info on features.
If we wish to save a post and refer to it in the future, I assume we use the keep button. But I see no changes anywhere after pushing it, so how do we review the "kept" messages.
smoothie: re subject line
Thanks for your support. The first several weeks will be critical as people adapt to the new site and form habits.