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60,501 Share MOC order at the bell 4.00.00pm There is a big market order every day right at the bell it has been happening for at least 3 or 4 weeks.
Funding by Australia is more an "Investable Probability" than a speculation. After all, what is 10X what they paid for Phase 2 (which also supported their Research Hospitals which they would have spent the money there regardless) when compared to what they are faced with in "costs of the disease", especially when they are already seeing such a great return on their investment.
I see it as such a lock as to be a "done deal" and the Caulfield Hospital seemed to indicate so as well in its annual reports "forward-looking statements." Caulfield Hospital is already committed to doing it so we can assume the Australian Govt. Health Services will support them. Whether there are further payments directly to Anavex is unknown but not necessary as the huge bulk of the expenses are at the independent trial sites. And Anavex has most certainly enough current cash for AVXL part of the expenses. But I expect Australia will be "all in" the same as in the past. There is a lot of inertia in Australia for A2-73 and the recent publicity "Down Under" should stiffen Australian public citizens' support.
The trumpets will sound soon enough.
Go Avavex Life Sciences!
Australia
It was the time of the Upheavals caused by the "machines of greed" of the Industrial Revolution that lead to the fresh colonialism and resulted in the First and Second World Wars and which continues today, some would say as a "war on the earth" herself but certainly still causes oppression and a rift between the "machines of greed" supported by the "over-consumers" and against exploited peoples and resources.
Drug companies are "putting the wood" to human beings by their tactics of greed, drawing their power for human need and desire for the health of one's family. But the "Industrialized BIG GROCERIES" industry has been "putting to wood" to humans for generations with the junk they push which has been accepted for food and which has lead to many of the chronic conditions which has fed the demand for the BPs drugs.
USA Citizens supposed "Govt. Guardians" for both food and drugs the FDA has had some glaring failures due to either incompetence, short-sightedness or as some might say "Deep Capture" by the BIG Industries it is tasked to oversee.
Searing case in point, Monsanto division Searle exertion of political influence to reverse a previous FDA ban on the excitotoxin Aspartame and shove it down the throats of humans for greed.
Donald Rumsfeld and the Strange History of Aspartame http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robbie-gennet/donald-rumsfeld-and-the-s_b_805581.html
Now Monsanto has joined forces with another other Agricultural and Drug Giant BAYER. The WAR continues.
The planet and her peoples need brave companies like Anavex Life Sciences. The battle facing AVXL is small compared with the scope of the total war, but it could be a very important and pivotal one for the health of humans in the inevitable struggle against the "machines of greed."
Hopefully, "Enlightened Companies" like Anavex can survive and prosper independently of the "Wall Street and Corporate RICOs."
Excellent short on technological dystopia!
It is as if western medicine, especially the Big Pharma drug pushers, are caught up it a similar "machine of greed." They love to get people hooked on symptomatic relief type drugs then continue to jack up the price until the patent expires then finally release the "next generation" of the basically the same MOA symptom relief drugs. Never mind that most of these drugs have side effects. If severe enough it plays into BPs favorite game of selling expensive drugs to offset the symptoms of other expensive drugs.
The men and women of Anavex Life Sciences think differently and have no fear of the BP drug pushers and their "Wall Street RICO" pimps.
High hopes for the technology and that AVXL can remain independent and not get taken over by "Wall Street RICOs" so that the medical breakthroughs will not be perverted to satisfy the AVARICE of the "'Tutes and Hedgies" as seems to be the case with the price gouging BPs.
Go AVXL! May she be forever INDEPENDENT!
Of course, patients were on different doses, all of this information is important. So once the data is correlated to the dose SOC level decline in some patients if correlated to dose, let us say a low dose of A2-73 or too high a dose or too high a dose of Aricept, might actually be a signal of efficacy because of the variations of response based on dose. The study is designed to look at all the permutations in order to design the best Ph 2/3, to learn to most before going forward. This study was never designed to show efficacy. The signals of efficacy and safety were strong enough long ago to make the firm decision to proceed to Ph 2/3, which will be designed to morph into a pivotal trial. The Ph2s continue for the express purpose of finishing the design of the Ph 2/3.
Dr. Missling sees his primary duty as CEO as "managing the risks" in the clinical trials. Designing the best trial for Ph 2/3 in ALZ is the current forward action not trying to tweak efficacy signals from the Ph2s.
One would think (and HOPE) that he does not see his duty as raising share price by focusing on efficacy signals to "hold the hands" of retail investors or attract market interest in the stock from "'Tutes." In my opinion, AVXL management has purposefully understated the signals of efficacy because that is not important now and could be counter-productive.
AVXL is seeking a partner for ALZ indication, however, one of the most important factors is not "current signals of efficacy" but rather the chances of succeeding in the Ph 2/3 trial. Besides, these BPs will have their own experts decide how the current data reads.
Scouts in the field do not blow horns. The fanfare of trumpets will not be heard until the cavalry arrives.
Go Avavex Life Sciences!
I Agree the stat sig is shockingly high!
Your reasoning that AVXL is not worth much or it's drugs are not as promising is in essence, "Hedgies and 'Tutes have not run the price up and they are smarter and have more resources, so if they are not seeing the value it is not there." This sounds reasonable but it is very far from reality. The reality is when small bios get a good partnership, buyout or good results in a trial, your "smart Hedges and 'Tutes" are caught by surprise and the price of the stock skyrockets many times it's "market value" prior to the event. Conversely many times the "Hedgies and 'Tutes" are heavy invested the trial fails. Lilly is the recent example.
It is a big Universe of stocks and collectively retail has a greater number of eyes, ears, and minds mentally focused on the few of the stocks they follow.
Your argument sounds reasonable on its face based on theory or pure logic, so I can find fault for you making it. However, it has been proven empirically to be untrue.
Go AVXL and smart retail investors!
What makes you think that some of the Big Pharma's, Hedge Funds and Institutions that have an interest and have studied it have not come to a similar conclusion? If they have what makes you think there is any inkling of a possibility they would share that "valuable knowledge" for free?
Of those that speak negatively regarding the A2-73 results are few, unqualified and are ALL in the "stock pontification" game.
Of the scientists, MOST qualified to analyze A2-73 data all have to my knowledge been positive. Including the scientist, that is the current Director of the Alzheimer's Association. Show me one "scientist" that is negative on A2-73 and I will show you a man who "failed" as a researcher and is now a computer or web "technician" who markets those services for 9 British Pounds an hour.
Financial Institutions are "for profit" and look out for themselves only.
Research and Public Service Institution's have a different focus. Of these that are positive on A2-73, there are many including; Australian Govt. Health Service, MJ Fox Foundation, Rett's Foundation, Special Committees of the US Congress and many University Researchers.
If there is a "disconnect" it might be between the financial and the interests to make a difference it the lives of others and to contribute to the public health. Putting money before love. Disgustingly pervasive in the realm of the Big Pharma. Martin Skirelli was the poster boy for that "disconnect" but did not invent "drug price gouging" and it continues unabated. We have a severe problem in our health systems and a principle reason is that "disconnect." Many Big Pharma would rather treat symptoms than cure, whatever makes the cash flow.
Management and Scientists at Anavex Life Sciences "think differently and they have no fear!"
If I recall correctly, the Rett's murine trials of A2-73 in mutated mice showed a dramatic improvement in frequency and severity of seizures. Does anyone see what the results of Neuren's drug were in murine and Ph 1? Also, I believe that the A2-73 trial will be designed to possibly morph into a "pivotal" trial.
Go Anavex Life Sciences! Let's hope for relief of Rett's for those little girls! Maybe even show the way to help Epilepsy as well.
Wow! Look how tight the BBands are! Volatility is at a 6 mo low on daily and weekly charts. This week was in a tight range on low volume. Do you think this is a signal that if we get a direction on increasing volumes that the share price might break hard one way or the other? Of course, the tight range could continue. If I understand John Bollinger's theory correctly it predicts that periods of high volatility will follow periods of low volatility. I just hope it breaks up instead of down. This will not indicate which way it will break just that it is likely to break hard and sharply if I understand correctly.
I have appreciated the pureness of response. I have seen your messages here and I have not seen them as anything but as genuine, the way you announce is good enough for me, I believe.
So that one can not imagine one self swing trading the whole.
Let us see if the windows of the temple are there to
"Shine A Light On the Linga or YOU!"
You may or might be wrong but what others want to see is if one can one is consistent and honest. OK I am with you both LONG and SHORT Term. I have never seen less ,,,,,,,reverses. WTF?
My core capability is determining the truth. I spend 20 years of medical malpractice\ and murder I know for a "reasonable factor you tell,the truth"
All I will say is I look for posters that "speak the truth" as they see it that does not mean they are "right" just that they are "worth listening to" as they honestly speak the truth as they see it and not feeding others Pavlov Dog Food. Of you both I believe, but more I believe in Missling, the IP and our chances. This is our people! This is our planet!
7-3 Odds we get update on Biogen/Anavex MTA on Monday 1-9-2017. Why go to JP Morgan Conference with nothing to say. Aducanumab data already disclosed, nothing further to say. Probability analysis from deep thinking says 87% chance results are in and 80% positive from A2-73 test. Lets see how the new CEO of Biogen a "Scion" of French Colonialism in Morocco handles this. In this particular INDICATION it is "GLOBALIZATION" I see very little reason to fear denial of treatment with A2-73 going forward. Questions will remain to treat with Aricept or Aducanumab concurrently or not will remain. Anavex Life Sciences will not be the end all and cure all but will be an important collaborator with many of BiG Pharma and others.
There are no negative events on horizon, at this point one MIGHT to wise to abandoned Tech Analysis and FOCUS on the FUNDAMENTALS!
Maybe there is a big difference between "sleeping well" and "getting up early to have the jump."
I can not speak for the poster you responded to but I 'suspect' early 2017 will be rich in development milestones several of which have the potential of a "blue sky tornado" type price action. What I gather from her posts over the last several years is yes she is a large trader and no was not holding core position as many have done. I hold a core and more and do not put a lot of credit in what other traders do. However, I judge this particular poster as honest and if one reads the history of her posts one might be convinced of the general nature of genuineness.
AVXL has a number of big time catalysts "on deck" and in the "batter's box". It seem as is AVXL the stock has been making a base with higher lowers. The Law Suit PR (which was already known and no serious threat) had an positive effect what would a "FA transformation PR" do?
I have no issue with your TA but one should also try to "get ahead of" positive FA or try to "dodge" negative FA when in any development stage company. Of course these factors are magnified in technology and super magnified in Biotech.
I have absolutely no doubt in the veracity of her posts. I will make my own decision as to her strategy as espoused, which actually aligns with your own as you were already long in your core. The difference is she did not have the "big long" core currently but is saying she will initiate a new long position. (but had very significant long positions in the past). Please understand that AVXL is and has been populated in the trading zone by large and successful swing and day traders. You are one of them and so is "our poster."
When the "Blue Sky Tornado" PR hits it will come against all TA and all "market factors." Can there be several of these in succession? YES! They have been laid out in detail in prior posts. All of these are logical and highly likely.
What are the possible "Fall to Earth" PRs? None are in the near term. Examine them please and share with me and the board any possible negative events that may cause an untoward price drop? Bad Adverse events? Not likely. The only "Fall to Earth" event could be a trial ambitiousness in Rett's or ALZ. Since they have not started yet then only POSITIVE FA events are on the horizon, for now.
So I see the POST of the "Respected Poster" you responded to as saying, LET'S GET REAL ABOUT THE NEAR TERM SHARE PRICE PROSPECTS OF AVXL.
I salute you both! I believe in most of the "TRUTHFUL" posters here and I believe in the "LONG TERM" prospects of Anavex Life Sciences.
For the past 18 months the share price has been a blessing in disguise. A blessing to allow the true, brave and strong to accumulate unto ourselves a great majority of the float.
One had only to believe, do ones own rigorous DD, and not eat the food that the "Wall Street Ivan Pavlovs" dish out. When looking at the institutional ownership I am a little bit shocked as I know the real institutions that own this stock are smart tough independent thinkers who AF called "stupid retail." Hardened to the point of fierce tenacity yes, well educated or not the core of AVXL retail is brave, hard, wise and committed.
I would venture to say there are forty to one hundred or more that hold a number of shares to place them between #5 and #12 of the institutional ownership. I would imagine there are virtually no "unsophisticated" investors in AVXL (because those types eat Wall Street dog food). Our friend from Vietnam has indicated he owns 400K I believe. I have no reason to doubt him and one can usually spot a genuine person on his face. IP Man has by now, if he is still in the stock, greater than 5%, likely much greater than 2 million.
My thesis is AVXL is tightly held by a relatively small number of retail which includes most of you reading this message.
You are AF's "stupid retail" which by the Grace of God you may spend the rest of your lives engaged in philanthropy. That will prove we are stupid by giving away money to improve the human experience of others.
This is our planet, these are our people!
Go Figure!
Go Anavex!
My "seat of pants" recollection was sub 100K volume yesterday at this time in the morning I thought it was abnormally low. Now 244K I do not know how the whole day will shape up as volume yesterday picked up in the afternoon. But I am seeing 600K plus today or about 50% higher than yesterday.
Let us see what the market does with the 10K block trade sitting at $4.04 on the ask. If that is bought up will be a good omen to reach at least the middle of the Daily Standard Bollinger Band.
Interesting action today.
Go AVXL
Looks like we put in a nice "W Bottom" test of support inter-day. Could be a good place to go for a swim right here. Thanks for the charts, muy apreciada!
A child making use of free trades that he/she has. The signals are given by code sub-10 ask/bids during inter-day trading. We saw a lot of that during the heavy short selling attacks in the past. The one share buy is a childish prank meant to cost someone a full commission for a one share sell, they have a free trade so they ding someone that has an open EXT order thereby costing them a commission. If this happens to you call your broker and ask them to refund the commission.
Go Anavex/Biogen...................tick tock.
A paradoxical morning assault by sellers has been met by a higher volume of buying than yesterday. Could we see an afternoon breach of the 200ma at $4.23 Could be likely. Isay paradoxical becuase some one jumped it to a "zero open interest" Feb $7.50 call option with a 100 (10,000 shares at $7.65 break even point) option buy at $0.15. Wash selling stock and long call option buying.
Things that make one say....ummm. Looks like we breach $4.23 today ON VOLUME!
Go AVXL
Interesting! This jives with the (I guesstimate)to VWAP of the break even price of Jan 5 Calls. Naked selling of calls of course is completely legal and undertaken by MM. As bookies set odds or attempt to get a VWAP to balance bets there may be fluctuation but the bookie wants to remain neutral. Are you following, I can not make any prediction although out of money options usually fail.
But when you say $5.45 that would mean the maximum people are hurt by the market break even point. Balance point. Being in the middle means more lose high and low and the house wins.( more than transaction fees)
Could be a $5 grab for shares.
I agree with your post. But not the one you were responding to.
Yes need a bigger trial. It will be announced soon. Australia has already earmarked funds and they are advertising for patients. N 300 of Australia. Australia will pay N-300 of Australians at Australian research centers. This does not get us to USA FDA approval, need USA site, NIH funding? Maybe but AVXL can do on our own 150n times $34,000 per patients no problem = 5.1 mil , bleed two million out on everything else. So minus 7.1 million and still have 10 Million. Oh do we need more? Can get from LP if needed. Dr. Missing says not need so what is is up? Good? Likely!
"Funny how ones life turns out, what are the odds of faith in the face of doubt?"
If one can debate on a message board and learn about someone in the process means can be friendly even in the juxtaposition of ideas.
You are on Lake of Ozarks and I say closer to mile 50 than 13.
Funny how some one can argue a lot but when it comes down to what is important we agree.
I though you were on Lake Shore Chicago, Lakes of Missouri I can find common ground I fished and skied those coves already.
Good Luck Brother!
Options are tough and capricious. Stick to your game plan. What I stated was mere conjecture and musing. Thoughts and Ideas which are conjecture. Manage your risk as best you see it. AS a holder of long options you can not blow up your account as one could do as a "naked" seller of either calls or puts. Maximum exposure is purchase price. Naked selling of calls in Biotech can be suicide in the case of a "blue sky tornado." Time decay of puts and calls is a killer and usually favor the seller. At least your calls are in the only liquid strike of AVXL. So you can bale at a "close out price" to those that sold covered calls and do not want to risk a last minute surge.
I usually only trade highly liquid big cap blue chip stock options and sell fast if the trade goes south. In stocks like AVXL one can be trapped in a position because primacy is not to the first to make the ask or bid at a certain price it is the one with the larger bid/ask quantity or better broker privileges that get the first fill. Decidedly not fair to retail. Also most brokerages do not handle the trades well and might even "well kind words escape me" when handling your trade.
Remember the old movies for when a Captain asks for volunteers for an Army mission and all the guys but one step back at once so one guy volunteers? That is retail option trading. You are that newbie soldier in that illustration.
My best advice (and I wish I could take it myself) is if you lose do not do it again, and if you win you got lucky, DO NOT DO IT AGAIN! It is a bit like shooting craps but at Vegas and the casinos they have Government over sight, gaming commissions, here you have no idea how they stack the odds against retail, the "Market" in general and options trading it is magnified.
Play the odds or play your hunch, but never play someone else hunch. A chess move fantasy is not a hunch. Just a possible chess move, an opposing player must move into it.
One can dream of "Blue Sky Tornadoes" with options or one can hold stock for a very long time and gain wealth. Gilead was like that, 1600 times 1999 stock price by 2014 but never a blue sky tornado, NIKE even more. Sometimes slow and steady is best.
I hope as I am sure you do to have just ONE "Blue Sky Tornado" to revalue Anavex at the justifiable stock price @ $30-35 (right now) based on comparable companies and deals and awesome potential.
Powerwalker wrote first @ #86824 expressing the idea more succinctly. I did not see that when I wrote mine, but thank you. That is what I love about I-Hub is there are a good many clear thinkers and good honest writers and contributors and very few "polluters" who come and go but are fairly dealt with by the moderators. (My personal opinion is they as maladjusted children just trying to get attention by way of a negative response)
But back to your Bioverariv thread, I think it is a spin off onto an IPO and they will float shares on the market with BIIB shareholders being granted a dividend of shares> Biogen will get its cash from the IPO and the existing Shareholders, if history of this types of transactions holds true, will be very happy. Maybe I am misunderstanding but from the looks of it Biogen will divest to the BIIB shareholders and to the general market as an IPO shares of a new company. If I am not mistaken net cash to Biogen (or value of all IPO shares)was slated at $5.6 Bil. Theoretically, one would expect a commensurate drop in BIIB share price for not having those assets. But what happens in the case of well regarded companies it that it has a paradoxical effect of lowering the "book value" but raising the "enterprise value," the stock price. The theory is that this well managed growth company can make better use of the $5.6 Bil as cash than the $5.6 Bil as the slow growth but steady income value asset of the hemophilia division.
But what do I know I am I unabashedly LONG AVXL Stockholder and must be stupid because Anavex Shareholders have been Decreed as such by Lord Adam Fueurenstien, Duke of Prognostia and Barron of Fallacy.
Go Anavex/Biogen- Crush MS with the historic partnership!
This scenario plays into your Thesis that some entities want to accumulate shares. They can not get "scared money" shares on the cheap so they make a grab at $5 shares by exercises of "surprise! now in the money" Jan $5 Calls. They grab the shares of longs who thought they were "playing it safe" and collecting premium on "covered calls" of long shares they owned and sold the Calls and of naked call speculators who see their chance of finishing in the money grow dim and are dumping them on the cheap as the stock price is "held in the box" while the "game runners" accumulate more Jan $5 calls.
I have speculated all along that hedge fund short sellers would "hedge" the short positions with long call options. The "BIG POT of Jan 5 Calls" is just too juicy for "those that can manipulate the share price" to not try to get their greedy hands on.
As my wise old law partner would famously say, The Pigs are at the trough when the money is green!
A $5 plus share price close in time prior to Jan 20, 2017 is a distinct possibility if it would benefit the "Pied Pipers of the Stock Game."
Go AVXL!
Witness the extreme high Volume of Jan 5 Calls. If the MM or who is ever "holding AVXL in the tight box" its the same as those massively accumulating Jan 5 call options, the opposite might be true and are keeping it in the box to get them on the cheap and then spike the price before the expiration. Once everyone expects how they have been playing it, keeping it down for options expiration they change the play for the really big pot of options which is the Jan 17 5s. Keep them cheap buy them up as they are dropped too soon by the long option holders then spike the price.
When playing options one MUST have a game plan!
Go AVXL!
Elegantly written, a nice turn of the phrase and SO TRUE!
Go Anavex/Biogen - crush MS!
Biogen will license A2-73 for MS before they continue the study into the next phase.
Biogen new CEO formerly Vice-Pres business and clinical development of Biogen would most likely have been the one to "make the deal" with AVXL that lead to the MTA. So naturally he should be the one to announce the follow-up to that deal as New CEO. Query whether the Biogen BOD thought that it was such a bold and brilliant move to collaborate with Anavex on A2-73 that it may have been a factor in choosing him as the New CEO. Both companies are at the cross-roads of their futures. Connect the dots!
Go Anavex/Biogen
Allergan/Heptares $3bil license deal after only Phase One.
"The Market" expects, or some participants in the market expects a different result from AXON because they eat the food feed to them by the Wall Street Dr. Pavlovs. AXON is run by the crowd of Wall Street RICOs.
Agreed, 10X was just a place holder for "some geometrically larger figure." If is is a buyout (which I hope it is not) then I would guesstimate the figure at $5.6 Bil based on the Allergan/Heptares deal just to license the Sigma-1 platform. Structured part upfront cash, part milestone payments and royalties. This would in effect be a wide ranging partnership and AVXL would get Biogen marketing and development muscle. A Biogen/Anavex partnership could very well be dominate CNS drug market for 30 or more years. Look at the history of Gilead that was 1600X from 1999 to present but it took some years. One of my points was that share price appreciation will be slower with partnership but greater in the long run.
But it would be very helpful to have a partner for the large indications like ALZ for marketing and development, as Dr. Missling has stated it would be and that it was his plan to partner for ALZ. I trust him.
Go AVXL!
Excellent job of connecting the dots! It seems more likely than not likely there will be some type of Anavex/Biogen tie up. The synergies are just too compelling, with Biogen's focus on CNS and Anavex's Sigma-1 discovery platform possibly framing a new paradigm in that realm.
Do not worry if only a 10X bagger on a buyout, hold the Biogen stock if that is what is given for AVXL shares. Because together Biogen and Anavex would most likely dominate the CNS drug market for decades and so in the coming years Biogen/Anavex combination might be another 5X-10X bagger as the drugs are brought to the market for a number of indications. If it is a partnership instead of buyout (which I would prefer) then maybe initially less of a price surge but a "Blue Sky Tornado" none the less and more to keep for AVXL in the long run.
The stars seem to align on your timeline. Dr. Missling said this morning "a good way start to 2017" as if he was dropping bread crumbs (as he likes to do)as in the German fairytaleHansel and Gretel.
It is conjecture I know, however, the elements of the puzzle lay before us. The timing is right for the data from the MTA study by Biogen, the New Biogen CEO will want to "start with a bang" and AVXL has three big time clinical trials that are just about ready to be "teed up" just waiting for a "big hitter" to join AVXL in the tee box. Sooner or later something will happen. Does Biogen's new CEO take the helm on Thursday so he has time to "Drive the Golden Spike" with AVXL on Friday and announce within two business days to the public as required on Monday at the JPM Health Conference?
I think I will follow the sign posts and connect the dots.
Happy New Year!
I hate to waste time responding but someone needs to point out the falsehoods whether they were intentional or not. The fact that Australian Govt footed the bill for the trial is well-known among anyone but the most casual observer. Seems so blatant that could just let it pass but there might be some new investors using this board as a starting point of what to look at for DD and frankly, the comments were so absurd as to border on libel.
No, I do not make your point I say the opposite which is the truth. The money Australian Govt. gave to Caufield Hospital, who is running the trial with Australian Govt funds for the benefit of the Australian people under grant shows upon Caufield Balance sheet but not on Avanvex balance sheet. Does Avavex benefit from that yes but it is not an entry on the balance sheet of Avavex. What is on the balance sheet of Anavex is the money granted to Anavex by Australian Govt for its costs. Caufield is not "working for Anavex" Caufield is working for science and the Australian people under a grant from the Australian Govt. They are independent researchers similar when a Unversity researcher do work on drug companies compounds such has been done with A2-73 in a number of indications. Those costs and benefits do not show up on Anavex balance sheet either. That is just how it works.
AVXL did disclose it and it is a well-known fact that the Australian Govt. paid for the A2-73 trial in Australia and also made Grants to AVXL which show up in the quarterly reports of Anavex.