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I hate to think of what is going to happen here if the present situation continues to play out beyond this month. Here we are back half of March without the promissed '06 audit and nobody even suggesting that there will be one, Barry perhaps still around but nobody quite sure in what capacity, and Lanza back in the saddle issueing PRs. This is just about as bad a situataion as we could have imagined.
Spunkyknight, the other possibility is that Lanza killed the buy-out, RM and Barry have left, and so there is no one else to step-up but Lanza. That would be a simpler explanation. Perhaps Lanza's interest don't aligm with BD.
"who own the leases, joe, mario, jane and rest of crew."
No, the laeses are onned by BD.
Yeah, that adds up and is probably what we have here. Which is why Lanza has to go if there is going to be any hope at all. Irony is that with the price of oil where it is at, money could be made.
"I'd say "yep" except I don't want to keep up with this messaging stuff. The audit will tell the story - and, I'm not really up to date on how RC's projections were put together. No doubt, there's billions of dollars of oil stuck in the ground, the problem is the rate of recovery."
Thanks for the reply. Let's give it a rest.
"Depends on a lot of things that I could not possibly know. But that's the facts as I know them."
Localoil, this statement does not inspire a lot of confidence!!!
"``On the basis of the reported assets in inventory, we believe that the Company has the ability to produce upward of 9,000 barrels per month from wells on lease, many of which still need to be put into production. With prices at $60 per barrel, this production level had the potential of producing revenue of $4.5 million per year and operating income of $1.5 million."
Localoil, so you are saying flat-out that the latest RedChip income projection just missed by a mile, that given BD's revenue percentage they will not be able to cover operating costs?
"How about this? I know."
Localoil, you are the one making an ascertion, that BD has negotiated oil leases that, well, can't be made to work, leases that produce a negative NOI. It is your ascertion, so please post some documentation of the fact. And explain why they would do this? Thanks.
"An average operator has a NRI of 87.5-80%.
Dragon is closer to 55%. That's why it doesn't make sense. That's what I get, or, just check the published figures. They were at 60%."
Localoil, help me out, why would BD negitiate such bad leases?
"Well if you're going to pay ANYTHING for the same NRI that Dragon has then I can hook you up with a TON of wells to buy."
Local oil, how do you know what NRI BD has? I would think they could negotiate very good NRI terms, expecially for the well they are bringing back on-line.
"Local, I have contacted Rick and he said he will personally take me out there and show me the leases so I can take pictures for my website. I will let you know if I go out there soon."
I thought RM was no longer with the company? Whed did you speak with him?
"Why does he not answer his phone. I talked with Bob from Red Chip and he left Barry seven messages since last Thursday. I have left him aleast three in the past two weeks. Are you the only one who has contact with him. If so why is he only talking with you and no one else?"
What a bunch of BS. Business world doesn't work this way. Nobody leaves anybody seven messages in 6 days. Maybe you leave a couple,and if you don't get a call back, well, you just assume someone doesn't want to talk with you.
But, I would like to know Barry's status...
Selling seems to have dried up. We will be going up again soon!
"Think about this... Guy in office writing checks who has never seen most of what he's bought, reputation for paying, although slowly (if at all) for work. You're a local and maybe a bit predatory. What do you charge?"
Localoil, are you saying that BD has never seen what they bought? How do you know this? Does seem to me whatever else might be true of BD that the company knows the oil business. Don't seem to me that to many people could outfox an old crook like Lanza. Just don't add up. No, I think BD knows just about everything there is to know about what they bought.
Localoil, you seem always to be saying that BD's contractors are screwing up one thing or another. Could be, but seems rather unlikely...
Not bad for a Monday, up on modest but decent volumn. You get a sense from the recent trading patern that selling is over. We will be at .20+ any day now!
Badrguy, with all this company has been through and given how long we have waited for this news, I wouldn't discount it. Sorry you sold your shares. But we are headed up, up, and away!
Perhaps you should buy some now to recoup your losses?
This is just wonderful news. BD is making good on its promiss to drill and bring the new leases on-line. Rock & Roll, they need to continue this effort. Very good news!!!
Looks like we still have momentum going into the week. Could be .20 plus by Friday!!!
Rock & Roll, a field day very soon. The stars are all lining up!
"They early on got the reputation of buying that which others did not wish to own. I think it boiled down to having a lot of money to spend in a hurry and not a lot of DD."
Hard to figure. I mean the BD folks are a bunch of crooks, but they have been around the oil business forever, and one would think they would have more incentive to buy the good properties that you say are readily available rather than the poor ones. I mean they could run an even better stock scam with good properties than bad ones. Just don't seem to add up.
'Consider the buyer's perspective: "Let's see, I can buy as much production in Pine Island as I want on a 36 (harder) -42 (much easier) month payout..... do I want a group of leases spread out all over hell and back at 60% or less NRI, or a cleaner deal, with leases close together at 75% or better NRI."
local, I appreciate your posts and knowledge of the oil industry. But if what you say above is correct, that you can buy as much production on Pine Island as you want on more favorable lease terms, then why didn't BD do this. I mean it is hard to believe they went around deliberatly buying the worse properties?
``On the basis of the reported assets in inventory, we believe that the Company has the ability to produce upward of 9,000 barrels per month from wells on lease, many of which still need to be put into production. With prices at $60 per barrel, this production level had the potential of producing revenue of $4.5 million per year and operating income of $1.5 million. Earnings per share at this level of revenue, assuming operating expenses are contained at current levels, would be about $0.01 per share. Our price target is based on a price/sales ratio derived from one of our comparable public companies, Arena Resources."
Localoil, with all that has gone wrong with BD and the past lies of management, I tend to think that the most recent RedChip assessment of their potential is conservative. Obviously you know more about the oil business than I do. But given the potential here and BD apparent limited capacity to realize it, they may well be an ideal candidate for a buy-out.
Badrguy, if a buyout happens that just means the company is looking after share holder value. Which will sort of undermine your legal case. That said, the best thing that could happen to this company is to get rid of the current bumbs...
"i'm not sure i understand how this relates to a possible rumor about a buyout?
i wish someone could enlighten me."
Well, if BD was being sold, it is a certain fact that the new management would not want to keep a looser like RM around.
"Just check with the company and see who is functioning as Pres. You didn't really expect to see websites updated so quickly did you?"
This sounds like a resonable answer. They probably wouldn't want to update anything official until they were ready to make an official announcement.
"Localoil,
"Is this buyout and RM gone a local rumor?"
Sorry, No Comment."
Localoil, I wish you would comment since this is the best hope for BD, new management with a new company. Are you hearing anything like this on the ground there?
Buyout quick or BK. And of course, a buyer inherits the law suits, including the ones that will be filed, when and if a bdgr buyer with deep pockets shows-up; because I know I will sue."
Not necessarily. There are ways if mitigating this risk. But given its potential size, well, who knows.
"RM's departure is not a rumor, just check to see who is now listed as President for starters."
Hmmm. Look like to me that RM is still listed as president? Any comment Localoil?
"RM's departure is not a rumor, just check to see who is now listed as President for starters."
Perhaps RM left because he knows that BD is on the auction block and that he is toast once BD is sold, to a hopefully profitable company.
"Barry is also busy trying to arrange a buyout."
Localoil, do you think this will happen? Does BD have enough potential assets that someone would be interested? They would pretty much have to have an '06 audit completed to interest anyone?
Which is why it makes sense for them to sell the business. What alternative do they have. The stock scam is over --- they knew how to do that --- but now the only money is in actually running a real business --- which they don't know how to do. They are going to have to unload this thing to create any value.
Localoil, I'm of the mind that the whole BD crew, board and all are soon to be history.
"Do you know this for a certain fact?
Short answer: Yes"
Seesm to me they got to sell whatever assets they might have to someone? Do you see this happening?
"I haven't seen any mention of the fact that RM has been toast for about two weeks. He's gone....kaput....toast.. well, maybe special toast like croutons."
Do you know this for a certain fact?
"Notice the statement in the PR "Sold over 6000 bbls with a net of 3600 bbls". That means their net revenue position is 60% or lower. IE, they pay ALL the bills out of 60% of the gross. That's really tough - most other folks who manage to stay in business have a 87.5%-75% NRI position."
Are you suggesting they went around and bought leases above market value to pump the stock and that they don't have, well, a business plan that cash flow? If this is true, why would they be out drilling new wells? The two don't seem to add up?
"I haven't seen any mention of the fact that RM has been toast for about two weeks. He's gone....kaput....toast.. well, maybe special toast like croutons."
This would be good news and suggest better days ahead, right?
Lou, have you been able to talk with Barry? Does he still expect an audit in March? Thanks.
No, I own more shares of this company that I want to admit. What I call the high risk part of my portfolio is fully invested! But if a few things happened, I might be convinced to invest more. I do think it is all up side from here.
Up big again today on decent volumn. Looks like something is up. I suspect we might see .20 tomorrow!!!