is...(lightning strikes only once unless you remain standing where you shouldn’t be.)
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Anything is possible but rigorous testing takes many many months and it takes 2-3 years for foundries to develop PDK’s so Lightwave is way ahead.
Twoop! Broken string.!
L_R
Well you can’t see the perk being sold unless you stand at the counter and watch the over the counter sales to customers. It’s the only way you are going to see the sales.
Twung.!
L_R
It must be a very small (30x smaller) very fast (slippery) and energy efficient floor (1 step and and you are at the other end of the room).
But if you fall down it must surely Hertz.
L_R
Now now TP:
Are you putting words in my mouth?
Nowhere did I ever say how many foundries I believed had operational PDK’s.
“Took me a long time to figure out what I already believed?”
Now now TP. Since you don’t know what I have believed about the number of foundries that had operational PDK’s How can you now suggest that it took me a long time.
Let’s be truthful Ted.
YOU are misrepresenting me.
Shame on you just shame on you.
Let’s go after the TRUTH.
L_R
You twung when you should have twanged.
L_R
Now Now TP:
"We may guess at what may be true even though we may not know what is true."
Let's guess by this time that we have 7 foundries with working PDK's.
They have all had more than 2 years now to develop their PDK's.
Could be 9 could be 2 or anywhere in between.
"We may guess at what may be true even though we may not know what is true."
Lightwave has had 2 for quite awhile now. I would suggest that 4 is not objectionable.
Give it 6 more months. Lightwave will have 7-9 operational PDK's.
"I may guess what could be true even though..........."
Now who did I learn this statement from ....... .hmmm ugh...... oh yeah TP
L_R
Now now TP:
One of the parties does not want the name of the client released. Maybe it is Polariton maybe it’s Lightwave.
Regardless, a press release like you have written would undo this arrangement of an NDA wouldn’t it?
So such a press release could not be done.
Why would they want this to remain under an NDA?
To me it’s simple. You want as many foundries as possible to be onside at the same time to avoid “pissing off” these very large corporations from threatening to move to another foundry so the game of secrecy MUST be played.
“We may guess at what may be true even if we do not know what is true”.
L_R
Seriously TP:
Weird back at you.
Make up a post that you think Lightwave should release as news about the fact that their Perk has been distributed to the licensee.
Because that is all that they could say.
Otherwise your expectation is weird..... really weird.
I am seriously worried about you (money aside).
L_R
ABSURD is right:
A news release from LWLG for first shipment of a glass of Perk would go something like this:
“Lightwave is pleased to announce that they have shipped 1 glass of Perk to their first licensee for the production of their modulators. 1 glass will do 10’s of thousands of modulators.”
You really expect something like this TP?
Absurd:
L_R
Well would you look at that?
L_R
😉
L_R
Perhaps you missed one?
But maybe not.
L_R
Good question. Of course in context I was talking about development of their devices in foundries which have utilized the ALD process.
I am of the OPINION, and rightly so, that others (which are in the progress of negotiations if I read the information correctly from the presentation at Wainwright conference) will complete these arrangements AFTER the robust data is revealed. Why do I say that? Because as a statistician I would not sign anything until I have a 95% confidence interval whereby I can rightly assume that the devices are going to do the job.
It is just who I am and in the industry the clients are going to look for probabilities of successful outcomes from these data sets. I personally wouldn't take the risks without that data.
Best to you,
L_R
Dice:
Well I am conservative on my personal estimates of how many foundries have operational PDK's. All I know is that if Lightwave has been working with 7 foundries then eventually there is a good possibility that all 7 will have operational PDK's if demand is there.
For now my conservative side believes there are two, one in NA and one in Europe. Could there be more yes. My liberal side says 4. Could there be more. Yes.
But I won't allow myself to post any more that 3 at this point. My personal view and the third is a guess.
As to data sets and release of that data............ My understanding of ALT (accelerated life testing). is that this is a very very comprehensive testing procedure requiring no less that 30 in the sample size and likely no more that 100 samples of operational devices from foundries. In any case a 95% confidence interval is the required goal. It is the only way of capturing the mean value. Otherwise all testing will have zero impact upon the confidence of the clients. The "bathtub" curve that will be completed in this robust data set analysis tells all. I will want to see the white paper from this but doubt I can get my hands on it. But for sure the data will reveal all of what we will need to see.
Best to you,
L_R
Dice:
Foundries are notoriously secretive about what they do. This is a well known fact. They hold their secrets close and reason for this is to gain an advantage over their competition.
In particular their yields on new technologies from the PVT’s are not released to the public. Millions in profit are at stake.
Once you accept the truth of this secretive nature of foundries then it becomes easy to understand why Lightwave will not and cannot give us information about what foundries they are working with and what results they are getting from those foundries.
We need to factor this in when making the suggestion that Lightwave is not being candid with their progress or lack there of.
If the evidence from their patents is any indicator of progress then there is good reason to believe they are much further along than they are letting on. For an example their ALD patent release indicted, in retrospect, that they had been using this ADL process in the manufacturing of modulators for many many months and yet we did not know about it. What was there reason for holding back this information from investors? Can you guess? I can. It is simple.
We also need to think about the nature of Lightwave’s polymers. This is a VERY disruptive technology with huge implications for the industry. Because of this it necessitates that the company handle things very carefully. They have potential enemies who do not want their business to become obsolete or their profits to disappear. Better that Lightwave win over these companies rather than make them enemies. So lightwave has to be very careful about what they release to the public and when. This by necessity requires them to withhold information.
Balancing all of this out and being accountable to share holders at the same time is not an easy matter is all that I am saying.
Best to you,
L_R
Have you seen the “bathtub curve” from the data sets yet?
The robust data sets create ,historically, a “bathtub” curve showing the early failures and the late failures.
Show us that curve and we might believe you. Until you do it is just more FUD.
Btw I do know about the various types of tests, formulas for testing, compilation of data and acceptable outcomes so you won’t be pulling anything over on me.
L_R
KCCO:
This has been my understanding as well. The pull has been from clients / customers for these robust data sets. They have been asking for this and it is my belief that until the information has been released no deals would be signed.
So the question is …”what will they want next from Lightwave” ? What more will they be wanting from the company? If these devices that are being tested are in fact from the foundries (it absolutely would NOT make sense otherwise to do these on anything else), then what exactly would they be waiting for next. I cannot think of anything but the data from transceivers. But maybe these data sets are from transceivers in which case they is very little that could be asked from Lightwave before deals are signed.
L_R
LOVE:
It has been known for some time that full robust data sets were being requested by the industry.
(The industry want these data sets).
That is what Lebby indicated and that they were going to run these ALT (accelerated life tests) until the data sets are completed (whatever that means).
Obviously results are completed and will be presented shortly.
Progress is being made:
1) operational modulators coming back from foundries
2) robust data sets completed and soon to be revealed
3) transceivers in development
4) supporting expanded facility in Denver.
5) perk 1 - 5 all can be licensed and 6 on the way.
6) market acceptance- may be small and maybe not. We don't know anything for sure.
Say what you will and diminish and minimize or demonize these advancements if you will but know this:
We are not where we were last year and certainly not where we were the year before.
Do I believe ramp will start next year 2024? We most certainly are headed in that direction after receiving PVT results last September.
Following PVT results are MVT results.
L_R
Dice:
I really don't know of anyone else that is:
1) using a polymer in the way that Lightwave Logic is using it....... as a switching mechanism for light.
2) as far along with a polymer in terms of relationships with foundries and their PDK's (2 years to develop them).
3) receiving modulators back from foundries that have demonstrated an "extremely high yield for > 1000 poled devices".
4) utilizing these polymers to scale to 800 G, 1600 G 3200 G.
5) demonstrating 3rd party verification as to world class speeds, AND low voltage operation AND 30x smaller than any other devices out there.
6) creating a moat of more that 70 patents associated with this polymer
At the very least this polymer has GOT to be worth something to somebody.
That is the way I see things.
L_R
These discussions questioning the CEO’s integrity and the companies credibility at this point in time is all nonsense and a waste of time.
In a couple of weeks the robust data sets are coming out. THIS WILL SETTLE THE MATTER for the industry and as to the availability of a product worthy of selling/purchasing. We are going to learn from the presentation that this is scalable and 800 G 1600 G 3200 G is a path that is quite realizable.
In similar words to Buzz LightYear’s ………“To Ubiquity and beyond”!
It will be public knowledge that what is coming out of the foundries is solid, reliable, durable, stable, scalable.
The hard part of making transceivers is done….. transmitting signals. Catching the signal is much simpler.
We are good. We are golden. This is happening.
L_R
And for the record this particular subject has been completely ignored by naysayers……why? Because it cannot be countered without showing complete ignorance of foundry processes or straight up lying about what it means.
It has been avoided like the plague.
L_R
Diced just for you:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172818575
L_R
Production trials or PVT (production verification trials) are trial runs and result in > 1000 units.
P25 of last falls presentation and a second presentation late fall indicated that Lightwave was receiving “extremely high yields in >1000 poles devices”.
This is foundry language and can be found in the following links:
https://instrumental.com/build-better-handbook/manufacturing-term-glossary
PVT: PVT stands for Production Validation Test. The main purpose during this build phase is to verify mass production yields at mass production speeds and to qualify additional tools needed to support mass quantities for the early ramp-up of manufacturing. Typical quantities range from . 1k to 20k . This is the last step in the development process before mass production.
A product validation test often measures the quality of finished products made at full production speed. Normally this means making 1,000 or more units of a product and measuring for functional and cosmetic imperfections, as well as irregularities within the manufacturing process, like operator training level, line speed, and line yield. Engineers then recommend and apply changes to the manufacturing process to improve yield and quality. This process can take anywhere from a few weeks to a few months, depending on production times.
Ba ha!
L_R
For those of you are interested..... read the rest here. Enjoy.
https://www.americanscientist.org/article/alone-in-the-universe
L_R
Don't want to be a kill joy but the Drake Equation is very outdated with the onslaught of information since 1960.
It does stimulate conversations that much can be said.
And I enjoy the discussions that come from it.
Conclusions about the Drake Equation:
Criticism of the Drake equation follows mostly from the observation that several terms in the equation are largely or entirely based on conjecture. Star formation rates are well-known, and the incidence of planets has a sound theoretical and observational basis, but the other terms in the equation become very speculative. The uncertainties revolve around the present day understanding of the evolution of life, intelligence, and civilization, not physics. No statistical estimates are possible for some of the parameters, where only one example is known. The net result is that the equation cannot be used to draw firm conclusions of any kind, and the resulting margin of error is huge, far beyond what some consider acceptable or meaningful[/quote].[75][76]
The difficulty of life arising on an exoplanet must include these parameters not mentioned at all in the Drake equation:
1) The galaxy must be a spiral galaxy. 98% of galaxies are not spiral. This is 2% of all galaxies. Radiation from the centre of all other galaxies is too high for a planet to develop life. But for a spiral galaxy the spiral arms block the radiation enough that an exoplanet could possibly develop life.
2) The galaxy must not have wavey spirals. Of the 2% of spiral galaxies 99% of the remaining have wavy arms instead of flat arms and such spiral galaxies and cannot contain a exoplanet that could develop life. Again radiation problem coming from the centre of the galaxy.
3) Of the remaining spiral galaxies only those in a galaxy cluster that is not too dispersed and not too dense can be considered. Too dense then gravitational effects from galaxies colliding over time makes it impossible to obtain a stable flat galaxy . Too dispersed then the interaction of galaxies is not available to create the necessary elements required for life... heavy metals. There must be the ability to create heavy metals necessary for life from these galaxies. Heavy metals can not originate in many galaxy clusters and we cannot have life without heavy metals.
4) The spiral galaxy must have the right size star in it that floats around in the "goldylock zone" not too far out from the centre of the galaxy and not to close. All other planets outside this goldilock zone could not give rise to life. A stable safe distance from the centre of the galaxy to ensure a stable solar system with stable planets.
5) The perfect star must oscillate within the arm of the milky way vertically like the tides of the seashore but not too high of an amplitude and not too low of an amplitude.
The remaining 100 limitations I cannot post here on the board at this time.
Nevertheless, the probability of life elsewhere exists but the limitations are becoming more obvious as time goes on.
And for the record.....there is clear evidence of aliens posting on this board.
Ba Ha
L_R
But remember this…… we are talking about the photonics industry here, which in time will branch out into every direction in every conceivable form of communication you can think of. It’ll be years but like oled and led technology it will replace older technology until we no longer recognize what used to exist…….
Where is the incandescent light bulb now? Overwhelmed by the new technology……. In our homes, flashlights, yard lights, car lights almost completely gone….. it took time though.
Think of ubiquitous in a similar way when it comes to photonics and communication.
L_R
Now on a serious note..... Something cannot be ubiquitous unless it could be placed everywhere in time.
Because we are talking about a polymer that in liquid form can be placed upon almost any semiconductor that works well and which it can become better after the polymer is applied then anywhere where a semiconductor can go the polymer can go.
Think about it that way. It can make anything good better.
L_R
Buzz Lightyear uses it alot:
“To Ubiquity and beyond”.
L_R
Something to think about:
https://www.edn.com/generative-ai-and-memory-wall-a-wakeup-call-for-ic-industry/
"The impact on Generative AI: Out of control cost
Today, the impact of the memory wall on Generative AI processing is out of control.
In less than one year, GPT, the foundation model powering ChatGPT, evolved from GPT-2 to GPT-3/GPT-3.5 to the current GPT-4. Each generation inflated the model size and the number of parameters (weights, tokens, and states) by an order of magnitude. GPT-3 models incorporated 175 billion parameters. The most recent GPT-4 models pushed the size to 1.7 trillion parameters.
Since these parameters must be stored in memory, the memory size requirement exploded into terabytes territory. To make things worse, all these parameters must be accessed simultaneously at high speed during training/inference, pushing memory bandwidth to hundreds of gigabytes/sec, if not terabytes/sec.
The daunting data transfer bandwidth between memory and processor brings the processor efficiency to its knees. "
L_R
"I have nothing more to say
No more games to play"
because.
"The winner takes it all".
Yes. But I wish to avoid the idea of “they’ll take it all.” If they do then yahoo.
L_R
Lightwave only needs a slice of the market in the areas they are targeting in order to do well.... really well.
We are good for that for sure.
And as the market demand grows the pie gets bigger.
L_R
I believe you are correct. Overwhelming data ramp from AI and other applications.
It is concerning.
L_R
No one else has developed a polymer with chromophores (molecules inserted into the stable polymer to act as a switch). Lightwave has 70 patents related to this polymer. To date there is nobody that utilizes a polymer in this way.
But let’s suppose someone elsewhere does have a polymer and maybe they boast to have one. Well it takes 2-3 years to develop a PDK (design kit) with a foundry. And the modulator that is manufactured at the foundry must come back to be tested for months afterwards.
In this regard any competition is way way behind. Very very unlikely to catch up.
Along with all of these barriers competition must also establish relationships with customers and foundries in such a way as to create interest and desire for the product. You need a good communicator and leader in the photonics industry. There isn’t anybody who has a better reputation than the CEO of Lightwave…. Michael Lebby.
It is time now for you to read up on all of this on the Reddit forum. My friend ….. this is a chance of a lifetime if what I say is all true. So it is worth your time to start reading and investigating.
Be on guard from the Left and right hypsters and trashers.
Best in what you find.
L_R
Ha Ha. Give it to them.
L_R
Correction. In our case includes RF utilized in these transceivers I do believe.
L_R
1) An optical modulator is an optical device which is used to modulate a beam of light with a perturbation device. It is a kind of transmitter to convert information to optical binary (off /on) signal through optical fiber (optical waveguide) or transmission medium of optical frequency in fibre optic communication.
2) A transceiver is a combination transmitter/receiver in a single package. While the term typically applies to wireless communications devices, it can also be used for transmitter/receiver devices in cable or optical fiber systems. In our case optical fibre systems.
Now the big stuff:
Lightwave has discovered a way to use a polymer (plastic) with specially designed molecules placed in the plastic (while in a liquid or semi-liquid state) in such a way that the molecules can be controlled by tiny electrical currents that cause them to either "stand up" like an army or "fall down" randomly. If the stand up together they block the light and when they fall down randomly light is "unperturbed". This is much much faster than mechanical systems or other systems because molecules are really tiny. The semi-liquid is "frozen" at low temperatures so that the special molecules work together when a small current is applied and this is really "exciting" since it has NEVER been achieved before in the 20-30 years that it has been attempted. (I know I know I am oversimplifying this for the techie's that are reading this).
Because of the way these molecules work at low voltage the polymer can interrupt light at extremely fast speeds and thus it becomes a perturbation device described above operating...... let's say 10x faster than other "switching systems" and therefore can handle much much more data at much much lower energy levels and can be reduced much much more in size.
You super techies out there can correct my errors in trying to explain this in laymen terms.
L_R
Lightwave is receiving fully operational modulators coming back from the foundries and have been receiving them for some time.
Foundries are showing "extremely high yields for > 1000 poled devices" as early as Sept 2022.
It is very common practice for newly produced devices coming from foundries to be sold to clients for testing in their datacentres or wherever they are being tested.
In the meantime the industry has been waiting for the full data sets of information about these modulators and this takes time to do (months).
These testing procedures are called ALT (Accelerated life testing under extreme stress situations).
Currently the datasets appear to be about ready since results from these data sets will be unveiled in early October.
We suspect when these full data sets are revealed then it should be followed by signed contracts (these contracts take time to develop and to sign).
Following this ...... orders may come it.
Ramp up of the production of modulators in foundries also takes time and will be months following the signed contracts.
Since PVT's have already occurred in some foundries (it couldn't be otherwise based upon the statement seen on slide 25 of last falls presentation "extremely high yields >1000 poled devices") what follows is the next stage ...... MVT or (mass production trials). These yields will still not be of huge volumes but will be substantial.
That's how I see things unfolding. I am certainly not as competent in explaining this as others are.
Best to you,
L_R