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PD, this is what I fear if the result of COVID trial is excellent. I feel modest result is better for AMRN.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-covid-19-crisis-raises-pressure-to-waive-vaccine-patents-11619861401?mod=hp_lead_pos4
Sleven, and that is why I don't know whether positive COVID result is good for AMRN. Modest result would be great, but excellent result may be not for AMRN.
Sleven,
Kiwi,
lizzy, I believe KM knows this fact.
ralphey,
Yes and no. Vice versa.
CBB, Drugs launched by large companies underperform compared to their counterparts.
"This difference holds even when we account for product characteristics most associated with strong launch performance. Several possible factors may contribute to this: functional silos that prevent large companies from developing a clear focus and comprehensive expertise in a specific disease area, a one-size-fits-all approach to launch, and incentives that create tension between functional and enterprise goals."
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/life-sciences/successful-drug-launch-strategy.html
1bill, sorry, I don't have a private message. Given standard of care recommendation in ADA (diabetes) guideline, endocrinologist may prescribe V more than other specialists, but the number of endocrinologist in US is much lower than family physician, primary care, or cardiologist who are main prescribers of Vascepa and most of whom do not follow ADA guideline, but ACC/AHA guidelines. To be fair, I need to say that evidence of Vascepa is not as good as statin (eg, lipitor) because of the number of RCTs, so skepticism of V's effect is understandable (I am a strong believer).
Kiwi, I agree. In addition, Vascepa is really in infancy. Most people don't recognize triglyceride or EPA as a maker of CVD and don't know its importance. It likely takes time (years) to be known as important maker.
CBB, as a physician (not as an investor), I don't care who sells which medications, but evidence (effect, side effect, etc). I believe most physicians who have received good education in medical school/residency don't care who sells what, but evidence.
Kiwi, Repatha is a good example that BP can be lackluster for the first several years. Entresto sold by Novartis is also a good one. I have not been able to find any good example that shows BP can do better than small company regarding medication for chronic conditions, such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, chronic heart failure, etc.
CBB, lipitor was launched in 1996. When Warner lambert was bought by Pfizer in 2000, lipitor sale was already 5 billion a year and successful. Eventual success of lipitor might have been because of pfizer, but Warner lambert could do as good as pfizer. In addition, statin had been in market since 1980s, so Lipitor may not be a good analogy/example. Do you have anything else? IMO, Entresto may be a good one.
CBB, do you have any analogy/example that showed BP could do better than Amarin regarding sale of medication for chronic disease?
jfmcrr, CCSB is located in northern part of Taiwan, and may not be affected that much.
Can drought impact on EPA API manufacturing process?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-chip-shortage-is-bad-taiwans-drought-threatens-to-make-it-worse-11618565400?mod=article_inline
Raf and NS, thank you!
NS, why do you think so?
ratna, I am not sure if this is available for retail customers...
Other reference: Omega-3 Long-Chain Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids, EPA and DHA: Bridging the Gap between Supply and Demand
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30621155/
EPA can be produced via synthetic biology, but its scale/cost seems the issue.
FYI: Microbial oils: an introductory overview of current status and future prospects
https://www.ocl-journal.org/articles/ocl/full_html/2013/06/ocl130010/ocl130010.html
sts, yes, they have been hiding the existence of a new API supplier in 10K for some reason, and KD pharma can be found online 10 K/A. The reason why I found KD pharma was that I reviewed possible API suppliers in the world, and noticed that KD pharma is a big Omega-3 API supplier. I am not sure how reliable the site (https://www.seair.co.in/us-import/i-amarin-pharma-inc/e-k-d-pharma-bexbach-gmbh.aspx) is, but the information in this site has been really reasonable at least since last year. And in March, BASF suddenly showed up in it. I guess we will see BASF in 10 K/A 2021, like KD pharma last year.
HK, yes. they have 420 ton capacity, but FDA had not approved their plant yet as of March 2021 according to their IR.
Algysis is private but seeking investors.
north, sorry I don't have a private message. At the end of last year, I was wondering if AMRS could make Vascepa. AMRS is one of leading companies in synthetic biology, and currently focuses on cosmetic ingredients. Theoretically, anything can be made via synthetic biology/fermentation, but I don't think AMRS would enter into EPA market in the near future. Algysis seems a front runner of biosynthetic EPA, but not sure how large they can produce it.
sts, you will find KD pharma in 10 K/A 2020 (https://investor.amarincorp.com/static-files/69e1986b-fce1-47da-9bf8-1bafcaca02d8)
FDA had not approved Nissui's plant as of March 2021. (I asked Nissui's IR. It is your choice if you believe this or not because there is no formal source.)
We may see BASF in 10 K/A 2021.
north, probably like Algysis.
sts, did you know that KD pharma has been an AMRN API supplier? If so, how did you know it?
ggwpq, I have owned the stock more than 2 years.
Haha
Rob, I trust JT.
ziploc, I am not a big fan of BO...
NS, it seems that they have been trying to make a deal with another API supplier, but unsuccessful. I guess that's just because of the terms of the deal.
ralphy, Amarin has Nisshin, Nissui, Chemport, Novasep, KD pharma and BASF. Capsugel is not API supplier.
Last year, Taiwanese news reported "CCSB currently has a natural monopoly on the generics market or a very oligopolistic position for at least 2 years."
ralphy, this is the source.
https://www.seair.co.in/us-import/i-amarin-pharma-inc.aspx
HK, Amarin has Nissin, Nissui, Cemport, Novasep, KD pharma, and BASF.
Given that synthetic biology will likely develop quickly, I think Amarin needs to consider making a contract with algae-based company like Algysis in the future.
Rob, yes I read this article. It is interesting to see if oxidation is bad clinically.
No, Hikma's supplier is CCSB, not Chemport.
Sorry, I was too excited...this is the link.
https://www.seair.co.in/us-import/i-amarin-pharma-inc.aspx
BASF is now one of Amarin's suppliers.