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Watch BLUD here. It's setting up a near perfect bull flag. $14 major resistance whick will be broken hard to $17. I think we see a possible pullback to $13ish and then a monster move higher on the FDA news coming. I think we see $20+ by Sep. I'm targeting the Sep $12.50 calls for under $2.
Low volume pullback setting up a beautiful bull flag.
AMED is still fine I think. All these heathcare stocks fall the first week of July, then ramp up bigtime.
I think we see $38ish before we need to bail.
Yeah, but I got out at cost on the $40s. I should have bought the $35s.
I was hoping for a gap up over $40.
Now, keep an eye on AMGN. If it gets under $50, then we hit it hard. It has a monsterous run into earnings. They all fall here the first week or so of July, then run hard as the rest of the market falls going into Aug.
Damn market makers on MSM. I should have bought the $35s with all you. F'ers held the open on the options until 10 min after the bell and I know they sold the stock off on the gap to be able to open the options down.
You know why that might be a good play? Dennis Gartman of the 'Gartman Letter' says that EVERYONE is short oil and long Nat Gas. And, it's a trade that EVERYONE is losing on. The idea has been that nat gas is way undervalued compared to oil. So, they have been piling into it mainly via the UNG etf. But they've been getting double screwed on that trade.
CRZO is a nat gas stock and most likely has been bid up due to all these people piling into nat gas stocks also. So, it could be a crowded trade where everyone bails at the same time.
Interesting.
Well, I missed the timing on MSM's earnings release. I thought it was after the bell. If you bought those calls yesterday when I put out the rec', SELL THEM ALL THIS MORNING AT OPEN! Huge gap up. You'll double those $35s and if you did what I did by buying the $40s at .20, it looks like it might be better than a triple.
But DON'T BUY THOSE CALLS THIS MORNING! (you won't get the entry price anyway)
TRADE ALERT
The account will be buying 5 July NCTY $10 calls at $.55.
TRADE ALERT
This is an earning's play. Tomorrow they report and it looks like it usually goes up on earnings. I'm personally buying the July $40s for $.20. However, it's probably more safe to buy the July $35 for $1.80. So, I'm having the account buy the $35s. It's a couple day trade.
The reason why I beleive the next two months could be extremely profitable for us is because it's earning's season and we're hopefully gonna catch a few multi-baggers on earning's gaps, both down and up. I think that we could really make some very good money this month!
Keep your eyes posted to this board!
Okay, July is here and we'll see how it plays out. There are a few potential big trades I'm looking at for setups. This could be the month AUY gets a nice run and many of the retailers should take a nosedive, but not before one last hurrah to screw the shorts. July is markedly a bad month for the markets overall. So, let's see what happens! Soon, one of our option trades will be a lotto ticket. You just never know which one.
No. I want ARO to climb a bit higher. I think it gets to $38ish. If so, then we jump.
I'm getting some very interesting concurrents in what BC is telling me. The market is still on a longer term basis oversold. However, if you look at so many of the $SOX stocks, they are so overbought, it's incredible and many or even most are way higher than they were before the market tanked.
New bubble?
Well, it's interesting because if you look at what that software is telling me, basically the seasonality of the market is for most everything to fall except for drug/healthcare stocks.
You should have bought them when I said to. I think it's clearly going to $38 now, which will almost triple our calls. Buying them now? Could make you money, but I think you're too hungry for a trade. Just sit back and wait for the next one.
July looks like some great setups.
Listen to Moe's show from yesterday. He had a guy on that anylizes money flows into the market and the resulting effects. He says that the only guys buying stock over the last 3 months has been institutions and they are all but out of money to buy. What's more interesting is he says companies have been flooding the market with new stock to raise money - $50 bill a week I think he said - and the money flow into the market has only been about $30 bill. So, his research tells him that whenever this imbalance happens, the market typically is down over the following 3 months.
Alot of technicians are saying that if the market doesn't go up next week into month end, watch out below.
Who knows. Personally, I can care less and would actually love to see the market crater. That's the best possible outcome for us as option traders. The Oct low will be a monsterous buying op and a setup for multiple 5 baggers.
I think ATHR and DECK might actually still work out. If AMED runs to $38+ like I think it's going to, those will be 'free' trades. I think DECK could easily fall $10 inside of a week. It's that type of stock. I think there's some end of quarter games going on that could lead to some serious selling the next two weeks.
Looks like AMED is possibly going to be a biggy. Looks like we bailed on GENZ just in time. Goldman came out late Friday and issued a SELL on it. Ouch. Going to be interesting what happens next week.
On the front under the upper 'ibox', you'll see a link that says 'join the S2 email list'.
It's that easy.
The lowest I saw it get to was $2.30. I was so tempted but decided to go long the stock personally at $11. It appeared there'd be an initial swoon down to the low $10s giving us that possible $1 entry. No such luck.
I will tell you though that you should consider buying those $12.50 calls for $2 or less if you can. There is some great seasonality on it in both July and Aug. Sep is the typical biggest % gain for it for the year. It's well worth north of $20+. It's just caught in some bogus press.
I know this company very well.
Well, it looks like it won't. I have been following that stock for some time and today's news is very similar to GENZ. It's completely bogus and setup a great trade. I just bailed on a 20k share buy I got pre-market at $11 and sold for $13.23. Nice $40k day!
I thought that stops would get hit hard enough to push it under $11 and bring those $10 calls to around $1. But no such luck.
I'm debating whether or not to pile into the Sep $12.50 for $2 or less. The company is extremely profitable and affirmed full year profit guidance 8% higher than last year. The problem they have is that the FDA sent them a warning that they are going to pull their biolics license (they make blood testing machines) because of a bad Jan inspection. They have 10 days to respond, but they have already been in the process of doing it anyway. So, it's not an issue. Nothing will happen. The stock's decline is a game of the market. Stop loss orders get tagged allowing for trading firms to capture that stock lower. They simply pull the bids, drop the perceived value of the stock, capture stop loss sell order, and then let it climb back up as value investors slowly add to positions to take advantage of the situation.
Yeah, on the daily charts I don't really use that so much even though always in retrospect it seems to have been a useful indicator. GENZ's move isn't until next month around July 10th or so. It always runs into earnings, which is July 22nd next month. However, due to the unique situation we found with it by selling off on bogus news, we had to trade it.
Now, it should fall back before it runs in mid July. I'm just hoping it doesn't run up and then do that fallback from over $60.
Because I'm looking now at the Aug calls, if we wait until early July to re-enter, those $55 calls will decay if the stock stays around here, which it could.
As per that email last night that I posted here, if the SPX closes the month neg, it reverses I think the Cuppock curve by signal. (or however it's spelled). That only happened twice before and both in the 1930s. If it happens again here, it sets up a potential monster leg down that will catch many off guard.
No, on TRLG it's a LONG play by shorting the puts.
TRADE ALERT!!!!!
I normally get these out the night before, but an opportunity is here this morning --
PLACE A LIMIT BUY ORDER FOR 20 SEP $10 BLUD CALLS AT $1.00
Hey MRVLReader, INSM didn't work out so good. That's why I didn't like it. A bloodbath over on the Yahoo board.
Glad now I told you to bail on those at $2.25?
You can send me the commission next week. I just saved you $10k.
By my math as of tonight, if we get $3.90 or better for the GENZ calls tomorrow, we'll basically be at about $10,700-ish on the account. That assumes AMED and AUY are at par. I think DECK and ATHR might be losers, but they're now free trades.
July is setting up to be an interesting month because so many stocks I'm watching are so overbought from the March lows, they are possibly setting up nicely for a July swoon, to end up running in Aug.
WATCH ARO. What I want to see is it run up into early July to over $37. If so, and I think it does, then it's a great setup for a put play. But not yet. Timing is going to be critical on this.
The real problem trading options right now is a double whammy - the $VIX is falling which brings down the volitility premium in the calls. It's been the high $VIX that's made most of these damn options so expensive and has made so many trades that are great plays not worth doing because you need to big of moves to make any money. But if you're long them too long, and the VIX keeps falling, you get 'decayed'. The volitility part of the time value on the calls or puts falls if the stock doesn't move while you hold it.
But lower VIX is good because it sets these stocks up to trade more consistent as they are supposed to and as the seaonality suggests, unlike what happened in the Fall. Although I will say that eventhough the market got destroyed, most of the direction was still seasonal in the direction.
You know, what I've noticed is that everyone has completely forgotten about the 'January effect'. When Jan is bad, that typically sets up the market overall to end the year bad. And let's face it, this Jan was pretty damn bad.
Hmmmm....
CRDN I didn't read the news as to why it fell. Seaonally, it's supposed to have a nice run from June 27 into next month. So, I think the play is to hope to get at least .50 back on it. This is why you have to read the news along with the technicals. They lowered guidance bigtime. So, it's probably hitting a low here. But that doesn't mean it's a strong bounce play.
Get out as you get close to .35 to .50 if you can. WDC is a different story. It so obviously wants to fall. It's got serious trouble seasonally as you saw by that chart. What I think is holding it up is the funds who own it and end of quarter 'window dressing' as they refer to it. For those who don't understand, investment firms and money managers make commissions on % gains of their holdings. They usually charge those either monthly or quarterly depending on the size of the firms. They all work together in this. As quarter comes to an end, like it is here in June, all they need to do is keep the market up to show large % gains and thus allowing them to pull out money of the capital base.
That's why the selling was so severe in the fall. Because of the forced selling, as many of these firms tried like hell to buy the dips and prop the market, they kept getting sold into bigtime. Well, that then leads them to hedge by selling other stocks in same sectors, or even sell themselves.
Because 90% of the money managers out there invest long, not short, it's why you can't listen to anything anyone says on CNBC. Most are professional money managers who have invested interests in proping the market at all times. For example, Vince Farrell I don't think has ever said anything bad about the market. Every selloff was a buy opp. All the way down from 14k on the DOW. It becomes a joke after awhile.
And of course, we all know Cramer's record. Those that don't, trust me, you don't want to follow him.
As for what WDC should do, if I'm right about the end of quarter and the prop ups in these stocks, the first week of July should be telling. Seasonally, the market gets a first couple of days pop, then an overall decline into the end of the month except for the drug stocks, which rally hard.
Then Aug is a potentially big rally month. Could see the DOW run to 9k+ in Aug. SPX 1000+?
Here's an excerpt from tonight's cycle update:
Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, June 25
Tomorrow's market close is critical in our projection work. Any sideways to up close tomorrow would confirm higher nominal 10 and 20 day projections for the Dow, the S&P, and the NY Composite. Those projections would call for a move up to closes of at least the following numbers:
S&P 500 937.10
DJIA 8612
NY COMP 6037
Those projections have not yet been confirmed but as noted above, they could be confirmed easily tomorrow. There is no doubt that the technical evidence is somewhat contradictory on several fronts. The sentiment figures released this morning by the American Association of Individual Investors showed only 28% bulls and 49% bears. As a general rule, these readings should be rated bullish on a contrary opinion basis. But we should point out that even more apparently bullish figures were seen on January 1 of this year, only 24% bulls and 55% bears. As it turned out, the S&P 500 declined 21% over the next nine weeks.
For those of you would believe in the concept that retracements of market moves tend to resolve at Fibonacci retracement levels, there were some interesting numbers today. For the S&P 500 a 50% retracement on a closing basis would call for 919.63. Today's close was 920.26. On an intraday basis, the .382 retracement level is 922.55. Today's high was 921.42. On the Dow, a .382 retracement calculates to 8496. Today's high was 8490. On the New York Composite Index, a .382 retracement level would be 5907. Today's high was 5911. Finally, on the NASDAQ Composite, a .618 retracement level calls for 1832. Today's high was 1830. Those could, of course, all be coincidences and the market could easily break through those levels in the first hour of trading tomorrow, but it would not surprise us if we saw some kind of high form around the market close today
SELL TRADE ALERT
The account will SELL 5 GENZ Aug $55 calls tomorrow at open
DAMN! Look at what happened to ACXM!
no. GPRO runs from june 22 to july 11
For those who are capable of doing this, I'm personally doing a trade here:
SELL JULY TRLG $25 PUT FOR $5 or better.
What happens here is by selling a put, you are obligating yourself to have to BUY 100 shares of the stock per option you sell. In this case, it's the $25 strike, meaning I have obligated myself to buy 100 shares per option I sell at $25. Since I get PAID $5 per option, I am getting PAID $500 per option I sell. So, if TRLG is UNDER $25 on July op-ex day, then I have to buy those 100 shares at $25-$5 = $20, or $2000 per option.
However, assuming I don't get assigned the stock between now and then, I think TRLG is going to go UP and those calls will decay very fast $1 to $1 as it climbs. Will it climb to $25 or better by then? I don't know. But I think it should climb to at least $22 or so. If it does, then I make $100 per option for each $1 it climbs
This is a trade you should be able to make as long as you allow yourself the available money in your account to buy the stock if you had to at the strike - the premium.
There is no unlimited risk as there is shorting naked calls.
First of all, this is how options work when you trade them. You have to understand the yo-yo effect you're going to go through. As for the stock though, GENZ is battling its technical situation right now. The stock got sold off on the virus news. That plays havoc with the open book orders that are sitting out there. You know, open stop loss orders and the computer trading quant funds. They model the trading in each stock they trade in based on how the stock trades. Being that it blew through some support levels, the computers think it's now in a sell mode cycle. So, they trade it accordingly until something breaks it back up into a new leg up.
So, until the technical damage is fixed, which I think would be a close over about $56 or $57, you might get this crazy action in it. However, the chart looks really good as a setup for a spike into the $60s. We now have the Aug calls. I think personally - and don't hold me to it - that these Aug $55 calls will more than triple between now and then. The seasonality is extremely strong in between July 11 and Aug 2. I jumped early on them because of the nosedive the stock did for no reason.
So, don't sweat it. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. One day we're going to wake up to it over $60 and those calls over $10. That's my personaly feeling.
Now on a side note, keep a very close eye on GPRO. It's seasonality begins about now and it looks like if it can break this little falling wedge resistance level around $43.50, it could spike into the high $40s easily. The damn options though are just too expensive to play with little money unless you want to buy the Aug $35s or $40s that are in the money. You could get a double on the Aug $40s which I have at about $4ish.
Looking now at PAAS. Almost a perfect setup. But using the Aug $15 calls for $4?
Not a double or more probably, but a good 25% to $20?
Hmmm.....
Look at FLIR. Looks like it's completing a 2nd retest with the seasonality June 27 through July 18. My problem with any of these is the Fed tomorrow. If they say anything good, the market most likely could go up big. GENZ could hit $57+. It's why I'm bailing on ACXM. I thing ATHR is headed down regardless of what happens tomorrow. Probably get a bounce. But not much. AMED looking good. I just saw CMI on my printed list. That's most likely one that will move tomorrow. But look at HUM also. That chart really looks like it wants to push through $32.
However, I'm looking for that one 'big' one. The one you can pile into. I think GENZ is going to be at least a triple. However, I see a few large setups between now and Aug. But not yet.
SELL TRADE ALERT
The account will sell all ACXM July $12.50 puts tomorrow, June 24, AT OPEN. Hopefully looking to get $1.20 or better.
Interesting trade. I have it as a move from 7/11 to 7/30 of about 8+% with a 90% record. I also show the best call to buy being the Aug $30 but they are expensive. A move to $37+ is what you really need. It looks more than doable. If the market runs in Aug, it could easily do it and that's kind of the plan here.
You get GENZ? Looking good.
Looks like we're going to get our ACXM trade. Also, I think DECK is headed our way.
Will check it out. Here's a cycle update that's interesting:
Stockmarket Cycles update for Monday, June 22nd
We already gave you nominal 5 week downside closing price projections last week but we refined them slightly over the weekend. The refined projection for the S&P 500 cash index calls for 875.23-883.75. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the refined closing projections call for 8195-8310.
As prices were approaching their 55 day moving averages after the March bottom of this year, we noted that those moving averages were important barriers to overcome. At that time the barriers were overcome and the market preceded to follow through nicely with this bear market rally. Now the tables are turned and the 55 day moving averages have been met on the way down. The technical expectation would be that some kind of support would be found at these moving averages. We calculate both simple 55 day and exponential 55 day moving averages. As it turns out currently those moving averages are almost on top of each other. On the Dow, the exponential 55 day closed today at 8359 while the simple 55 day closed at 8338. The Dow closed today at 8339. On the S&P 500, the exponential 55 day closed at 893.95 while the simple 55 day closed at 892.85. The S&P index closed at 893.04. As you can see, prices on both the Dow and the S&P closed right at their important moving averages. The projections above suggest those moving averages will be broken on a closing basis at least by a small margin. It will be something to watch closely for over the next few days.
TRADE ALERT
BUY 5 AUG GENZ $55 CALLS LIMIT $2.75
As you can see, the thing about options is that you have to understand that many times you're going to get yo-yo'd in terms of where you stand at any given time. Right now, I calculate that we're about down around $300ish on the account overall, after having been up almost $1000 the other day. But we're not in this for a couple hundred. Watch how fast these things take off when the market takes off, or each of the stocks takes off. It happens out of the blue.
Just watch.
TRADE ALERT
SELL ALL GENZ JULY $55 CALLS ASAP. Because I think most won't get this until tonight, I'm going to place the trade for the $10k account on Monday morning at open. Hopefully we get the $2.25 or better bid price.
Why? I've been following AMGN closely and it's basically the same as GENZ to a degree. AMGN broke out and is now pulling back. I think GENZ pulls back with it in a bull flag setup going into their July earnings. With June options expiring today, I think they post the Aug options next week which will allow us to capture a better position possibly for a bigger move to the $60s on it.
Take the small profit we'll get and we'll wait.
S2
Missed the GPRO trade. Just went straight up.