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I say USD dead cat bounce during January and then freefall. Doom and gloom soon. I am hedging the EUR/USD and USD/CHF until all this bullshit is sorted out.
Good luck!
http://www.kitco.com/ind/AuthenticMoney/dec222006.html
Confidence In The U.S.$ Is Falling
Excerpts From – “Gold Forecaster – Global Watch”
December 22 , 2006
www.goldforecaster.com
As the continued deficit continues to command somewhat myopic attention [it was less than expected but still around $60 billion a month], we do well to look at the impact on confidence in the unit as the Trade deficit rolls on month after month year after year.
In the United States the greenback is money and the only measuring rod of value and has been for hundreds of years. That it could become suspect is almost unpatriotic. But U.S. citizens can see the writing on the wall too. They are fully aware of the inherent and seemingly unreported inflation figures as they experience it in their own lives. They can do little about it, but as is the case in the whole world, accept it. After all if you don’t use the $ what do you use? But as an investment in itself Americans show they are underwhelmed, as their savings levels stay at historic and globally low levels. Yes, the easy credit and a general ‘live now, pay later’ attitude has entrenched itself in American culture, but sagacious Investors know that the time for such attitudes is running out. So when the Trade deficit dropped below $60 billion for the first time in months the market’s damp squid reaction came as no surprise. With last year’s deficit reaching $720 billion and this year’s heading for $750 billion, what’s to be happy about?
The fact of the matter this week was that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 8.4% in October to $58.9 billion. The trade gap is at its lowest level since August 2005. The trade deficit was expected at $63.1 billion. The drop in oil prices is why the deficit fell. The average price for a barrel of imported crude dropped by a record $7.05 in October to $55.47 with the volume of petroleum shipments also falling. America's total foreign oil bill fell to $21.8 billion, 17.1% below the September level. The fall in the oil bill accounted for four-fifths of the total trade improvement in October.
As part of the draining of manufacturing from the States to emerging countries [not just China] Democrats believe that America has lost nearly 3 million manufacturing jobs in the last six years.
The trade deficit with Canada fell by 4.8% to $5.4 billion.
The deficit with Mexico dropped 11.3% to $5.2 billion, reflecting a record level of U.S. exports to Mexico.
The deficit with the 25-nation European Union shot up 34.3% to $9.5 billion.
An inevitable and unstoppable trend is that all non-emerging nations are subject to a draining of wealth either to the oil producers or to the emerging East as it provides cheap, but often equal quality goods to West. The efforts to retain such wealth cannot succeed without protectionism or direct blocks on the imports of such goods. This is unlikely to happen until it has already reached crisis proportions. Such moves have to be preceded by Capital Controls which in turn will be preceded by a major U.S.$ fall. Gold will be above four figures by that time and probably have been there for a while.
Dollar Index: Dead $ Bounce
Last few weeks I stated, “The US Dollar Index continued to penetrate supports plunging to 82.50 at the close of last week. Now entering a zone of major support, it should be expected that over the next few weeks, a sizeable bounce is quite favorable. Beware of the implications it may bring to gold, but we see such strength in the gold markets at this point that it is unlikely a bounce will do no more than put a small dent in the short-term picture, allowing gold to consolidate. It will likely take numerous attempts to technically break through the solid foundation around 78-80, but it is more of a question of when at this point.”
This past week saw the bounce from the strong support area around 82.25-82.50 continue. With the index back to 84, above the first initial resistance, a we are now looking at 84.5-85 in play, likely where this bounce will find trouble, stall and reverse.
Remind me to buy you a spell checker next year for Christmas. What do think of the previous post? EUR/USD goin down?
EUR/USD weekly chart for the month of january
She looks like she wants to go down for january. Thoughts?
LMAO!!! you really know how to crack me up!! LOL!!!!
Does ACM use dealbook 360? It is from GFT forex
Experiment with carry trades with A DEMO ACCOUNT
(I wish this was real money!)
I opened 3 carry trades as you see below at a cost of 795726.52 virtual = 15914.53 leveraged at 50:1
From August 18th to Dec 25th I earned a whopping $13128.33 in interest alone. I almost doubled my balance just on the interest in 4.5 MONTHS !!! No matter what people say about the USD weakening etc ... If they keep their interest rates above 5% the carry will be in style.
Simply incredible. Can you imagine if I sold at 119ish a little while ago and bought back at 114.80? I was tempted but wanted to see what would happen with just the interest.
AtaGlance2 ... you wonder why USD/JPY is goin up?
Ultimatepick
8/18/2006 0:28 Buy Market AUD/JPY 88.26 300,000 0 17,235.25 228367.00
8/18/2006 0:30 Buy Market CAD/JPY 103.33 300,000 0 17,235.25 267359.52
8/18/2006 0:33 Buy Market USD/JPY 115.945 300,000 0 27,235.25 300000.00
VIRTUAL 795726.52 REAL COST 15914.53048
8/18/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.2068 3.2068 27,238.45
8/18/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 23.0925 23.0925 27,261.54
8/18/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 25.3729 25.3729 27,286.92
8/18/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 18.4607 18.4607 27,305.38
8/19/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.6095 3.6095 27,308.99
8/19/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.554 33.554 27,342.54
8/19/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0251 37.0251 27,379.57
8/19/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.8615 26.8615 27,406.43
8/20/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.6229 3.6229 27,410.05
8/20/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.5322 33.5322 27,443.58
8/20/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0251 37.0251 27,480.61
8/20/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.8565 26.8565 27,507.46
8/21/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.6362 3.6362 27,511.10
8/21/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.7426 33.7426 27,544.84
8/21/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 27,581.87
8/21/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.0581 27.0581 27,608.93
8/22/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.6496 3.6496 27,612.58
8/22/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.708 33.708 27,646.29
8/22/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 27,683.31
8/22/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.1086 27.1086 27,710.42
8/23/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.6631 3.6631 27,714.08
8/23/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.73 33.73 27,747.81
8/23/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 27,784.84
8/23/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.1745 27.1745 27,812.02
8/24/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.6765 3.6765 27,815.69
8/24/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.668 33.668 27,849.36
8/24/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 27,886.39
8/24/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.255 27.255 27,913.64
8/25/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.6899 3.6899 27,917.33
8/25/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.4569 33.4569 27,950.79
8/25/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0251 37.0251 27,987.81
8/25/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.2555 27.2555 28,015.07
8/26/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.7034 3.7034 28,018.77
8/26/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.4569 33.4569 28,052.23
8/26/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0251 37.0251 28,089.26
8/26/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.2555 27.2555 28,116.51
8/27/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.7167 3.7167 28,120.23
8/27/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.4481 33.4481 28,153.68
8/27/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0251 37.0251 28,190.70
8/27/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.2581 27.2581 28,217.96
8/28/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.7302 3.7302 28,221.69
8/28/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.5613 33.5613 28,255.25
8/28/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0268 37.0268 28,292.28
8/28/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.1936 27.1936 28,319.47
8/29/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.7436 3.7436 28,323.21
8/29/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.7827 33.7827 28,357.00
8/29/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 28,394.02
8/29/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.3 27.3 28,421.32
9/4/2006 17:00 Interest USD 22.5495 22.5495 28,443.87
9/4/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 203.3541 203.3541 28,647.23
9/4/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 222.2104 222.2104 28,869.44
9/4/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 164.1575 164.1575 29,033.60
9/5/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.838 3.838 29,037.43
9/5/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.101 34.101 29,071.53
9/5/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 29,108.56
9/5/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.2018 27.2018 29,135.76
9/6/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.8515 3.8515 29,139.61
9/6/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.8842 33.8842 29,173.50
9/6/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 29,210.53
9/6/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.3518 27.3518 29,237.88
9/7/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.865 3.865 29,241.74
9/7/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.5304 33.5304 29,275.27
9/7/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 29,312.30
9/7/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.241 27.241 29,339.54
9/8/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.8785 3.8785 29,343.42
9/8/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.3403 33.3403 29,376.76
9/8/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 29,413.79
9/8/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.9883 26.9883 29,440.78
9/9/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.8919 3.8919 29,444.67
9/9/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.3403 33.3403 29,478.01
9/9/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 29,515.03
9/9/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.9883 26.9883 29,542.02
9/10/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.9052 3.9052 29,545.93
9/10/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2925 33.2925 29,579.22
9/10/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0251 37.0251 29,616.25
9/10/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.981 26.981 29,643.23
9/11/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.9185 3.9185 29,647.14
9/11/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2081 33.2081 29,680.35
9/11/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 29,717.38
9/11/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.9586 26.9586 29,744.34
9/12/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.932 3.932 29,748.27
9/12/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.1812 33.1812 29,781.45
9/12/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 37.0269 37.0269 29,818.48
9/12/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.0044 27.0044 29,845.48
9/13/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.9453 3.9453 29,849.43
9/13/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2828 33.2828 29,882.71
9/13/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 29,919.33
9/13/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.6278 26.6278 29,945.95
9/14/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.9586 3.9586 29,949.91
9/14/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.3712 33.3712 29,983.28
9/14/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 30,019.90
9/14/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.7037 26.7037 30,046.60
9/15/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.9719 3.9719 30,050.58
9/15/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2697 33.2697 30,083.85
9/15/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 30,120.46
9/15/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.647 26.647 30,147.11
9/16/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.9852 3.9852 30,151.09
9/16/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2697 33.2697 30,184.36
9/16/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 30,220.98
9/16/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.647 26.647 30,247.62
9/17/2006 17:00 Interest USD 3.9985 3.9985 30,251.62
9/17/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2355 33.2355 30,284.86
9/17/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 30,321.47
9/17/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.6326 26.6326 30,348.10
9/18/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.0117 4.0117 30,352.11
9/18/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.4061 33.4061 30,385.52
9/18/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 30,422.14
9/18/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.685 26.685 30,448.82
9/19/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.0251 4.0251 30,452.85
9/19/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2346 33.2346 30,486.08
9/19/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 30,522.70
9/19/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4648 26.4648 30,549.16
9/20/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.0383 4.0383 30,553.20
9/20/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2606 33.2606 30,586.46
9/20/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 30,623.08
9/20/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4488 26.4488 30,649.53
9/21/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.0516 4.0516 30,653.58
9/21/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.4824 33.4824 30,687.06
9/21/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 30,723.68
9/21/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.6403 26.6403 30,750.32
9/22/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.0649 4.0649 30,754.38
9/22/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.1652 33.1652 30,787.55
9/22/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 30,824.16
9/22/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.6784 26.6784 30,850.84
9/23/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.0782 4.0782 30,854.92
9/23/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.1652 33.1652 30,888.08
9/23/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 30,924.69
9/23/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.6784 26.6784 30,951.37
9/24/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.0915 4.0915 30,955.46
9/24/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.1334 33.1334 30,988.60
9/24/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 31,025.21
9/24/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.6759 26.6759 31,051.89
9/25/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.1048 4.1048 31,055.99
9/25/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.3048 33.3048 31,089.30
9/25/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 31,125.91
9/25/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.7094 26.7094 31,152.62
9/26/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.1182 4.1182 31,156.74
9/26/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2512 33.2512 31,189.99
9/26/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 31,226.61
9/26/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.7717 26.7717 31,253.38
9/27/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.1314 4.1314 31,257.51
9/27/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.1707 33.1707 31,290.68
9/27/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 31,327.30
9/27/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.8416 26.8416 31,354.14
9/28/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.1448 4.1448 31,358.28
9/28/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.0931 33.0931 31,391.38
9/28/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 31,427.99
9/28/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.8439 26.8439 31,454.84
9/29/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.158 4.158 31,459.00
9/29/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.9958 32.9958 31,491.99
9/29/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 31,528.61
9/29/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.6802 26.6802 31,555.29
9/30/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.1714 4.1714 31,559.46
9/30/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.9958 32.9958 31,592.45
9/30/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 31,629.07
9/30/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.6802 26.6802 31,655.75
10/2/2006 17:00 Interest USD 8.3697 8.3697 31,664.12
10/2/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 66.0749 66.0749 31,730.19
10/2/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 73.2318 73.2318 31,803.43
10/2/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 53.4402 53.4402 31,856.87
10/3/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.2113 4.2113 31,861.08
10/3/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.8671 32.8671 31,893.95
10/3/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 31,930.56
10/3/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5808 26.5808 31,957.14
10/4/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.2245 4.2245 31,961.37
10/4/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.9866 32.9866 31,994.35
10/4/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 32,030.97
10/4/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4723 26.4723 32,057.44
10/5/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.2377 4.2377 32,061.68
10/5/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33 33 32,094.68
10/5/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 32,131.29
10/5/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5171 26.5171 32,157.81
10/6/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.251 4.251 32,162.06
10/6/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.836 32.836 32,194.90
10/6/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 32,231.51
10/6/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5056 26.5056 32,258.02
10/7/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.2643 4.2643 32,262.28
10/7/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.8159 32.8159 32,295.10
10/7/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 32,331.72
10/7/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4947 26.4947 32,358.21
10/8/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.2774 4.2774 32,362.49
10/8/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.7976 32.7976 32,395.29
10/8/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 32,431.90
10/8/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4817 26.4817 32,458.38
10/9/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.2907 4.2907 32,462.67
10/9/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.9114 32.9114 32,495.58
10/9/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 32,532.20
10/9/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5431 26.5431 32,558.74
10/10/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.304 4.304 32,563.05
10/10/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.8976 32.8976 32,595.94
10/10/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 32,632.56
10/10/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3369 26.3369 32,658.90
10/11/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.3172 4.3172 32,663.21
10/11/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 32.8145 32.8145 32,696.03
10/11/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 32,732.64
10/11/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2071 26.2071 32,758.85
10/12/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.3305 4.3305 32,763.18
10/12/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.2075 33.2075 32,796.39
10/12/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 32,833.01
10/12/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3132 26.3132 32,859.32
10/13/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.3438 4.3438 32,863.66
10/13/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.1765 33.1765 32,896.84
10/13/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6139 36.6139 32,933.45
10/13/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2072 26.2072 32,959.66
10/14/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.3569 4.3569 32,964.02
10/14/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.1765 33.1765 32,997.19
10/14/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6139 36.6139 33,033.81
10/14/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2072 26.2072 33,060.02
10/15/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.3703 4.3703 33,064.39
10/15/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.1685 33.1685 33,097.55
10/15/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6139 36.6139 33,134.17
10/15/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2206 26.2206 33,160.39
10/16/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.3835 4.3835 33,164.77
10/16/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.3222 33.3222 33,198.09
10/16/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 33,234.71
10/16/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2252 26.2252 33,260.94
10/17/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.3968 4.3968 33,265.33
10/17/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.3182 33.3182 33,298.65
10/17/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 33,335.27
10/17/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.1426 26.1426 33,361.41
10/18/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.4101 4.4101 33,365.82
10/18/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.3755 33.3755 33,399.19
10/18/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 33,435.81
10/18/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.246 26.246 33,462.06
10/19/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.4232 4.4232 33,464.48
10/19/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.5661 33.5661 33,498.05
10/19/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 33,534.66
10/19/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.465 26.465 33,561.13
10/20/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.4365 4.4365 33,565.56
10/20/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.5397 33.5397 33,599.10
10/20/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 33,635.72
10/20/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5048 26.5048 33,662.22
10/21/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.4499 4.4499 33,666.67
10/21/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.5324 33.5324 33,700.21
10/21/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 33,736.82
10/21/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5048 26.5048 33,763.33
10/22/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.4633 4.4633 33,767.79
10/22/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.544 33.544 33,801.33
10/22/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 33,837.95
10/22/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5117 26.5117 33,864.46
10/23/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.4766 4.4766 33,868.94
10/23/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.4777 33.4777 33,902.42
10/23/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 33,939.03
10/23/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4299 26.4299 33,965.46
10/24/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.4899 4.4899 33,969.95
10/24/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.5304 33.5304 34,003.48
10/24/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 34,040.10
10/24/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4745 26.4745 34,066.57
10/25/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.5033 4.5033 34,071.08
10/25/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.659 33.659 34,104.73
10/25/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 34,141.35
10/25/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5428 26.5428 34,167.89
10/26/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.5168 4.5168 34,172.41
10/26/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.7956 33.7956 34,206.21
10/26/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 34,242.82
10/26/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.557 26.557 34,269.38
10/27/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.5301 4.5301 34,273.91
10/27/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.956 33.956 34,307.87
10/27/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 34,344.48
10/27/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.633 26.633 34,371.11
10/28/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.5436 4.5436 34,375.66
10/28/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.956 33.956 34,409.61
10/28/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 34,446.23
10/28/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.633 26.633 34,472.86
10/29/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.7469 4.7469 34,477.61
10/29/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.3708 35.3708 34,512.98
10/29/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 38.1394 38.1394 34,551.12
10/29/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 27.7427 27.7427 34,578.86
10/30/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.5711 4.5711 34,583.43
10/30/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.0124 34.0124 34,617.44
10/30/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 34,654.06
10/30/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5004 26.5004 34,680.56
10/31/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.5845 4.5845 34,685.14
10/31/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.207 34.207 34,719.35
10/31/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 34,755.97
10/31/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.5805 26.5805 34,782.55
11/1/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.5979 4.5979 34,787.14
11/1/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.2596 34.2596 34,821.40
11/1/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 34,858.02
11/1/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3481 26.3481 34,884.37
11/2/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.6114 4.6114 34,888.98
11/2/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.2331 34.2331 34,923.21
11/2/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 34,959.83
11/2/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3203 26.3203 34,986.15
11/3/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.6249 4.6249 34,990.77
11/3/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.9939 33.9939 35,024.77
11/3/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 35,061.38
11/3/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3929 26.3929 35,087.77
11/4/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.6383 4.6383 35,092.41
11/4/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.9939 33.9939 35,126.41
11/4/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 35,163.02
11/4/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3929 26.3929 35,189.41
11/5/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.6518 4.6518 35,194.06
11/5/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.018 34.018 35,228.08
11/5/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 35,264.70
11/5/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3927 26.3927 35,291.09
11/6/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.6652 4.6652 35,295.75
11/6/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.1062 34.1062 35,329.86
11/6/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 35,366.48
11/6/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4019 26.4019 35,392.88
11/7/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.6787 4.6787 35,397.56
11/7/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.2163 34.2163 35,431.77
11/7/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 35,468.39
11/7/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4019 26.4019 35,494.79
11/8/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.6921 4.6921 35,499.48
11/8/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 34.0705 34.0705 35,533.55
11/8/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6158 36.6158 35,570.17
11/8/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4066 26.4066 35,596.58
11/9/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.7055 4.7055 35,601.28
11/9/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 33.9373 33.9373 35,635.22
11/9/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 35,671.83
11/9/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.4112 26.4112 35,698.25
11/10/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.719 4.719 35,702.96
11/10/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.4973 35.4973 35,738.46
11/10/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 35,775.08
11/10/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3337 26.3337 35,801.41
11/11/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.7327 4.7327 35,806.14
11/11/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.4973 35.4973 35,841.64
11/11/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 35,878.25
11/11/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3337 26.3337 35,904.59
11/12/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.7463 4.7463 35,909.33
11/12/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.4878 35.4878 35,944.82
11/12/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 35,981.43
11/12/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3577 26.3577 36,007.79
11/13/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.7599 4.7599 36,012.55
11/13/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.2548 35.2548 36,047.81
11/13/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6158 36.6158 36,084.42
11/13/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2234 26.2234 36,110.65
11/14/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.7735 4.7735 36,115.42
11/14/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.4131 35.4131 36,150.83
11/14/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 36,187.45
11/14/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2233 26.2233 36,213.67
11/15/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.7872 4.7872 36,218.46
11/15/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.4037 35.4037 36,253.86
11/15/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 36,290.48
11/15/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.1958 26.1958 36,316.67
11/16/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.8007 4.8007 36,321.48
11/16/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.464 35.464 36,356.94
11/16/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 36,393.56
11/16/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.1109 26.1109 36,419.67
11/17/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.8144 4.8144 36,424.48
11/17/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.5574 35.5574 36,460.04
11/17/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 36,496.65
11/17/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9995 25.9995 36,522.65
11/18/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.8281 4.8281 36,527.48
11/18/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.5574 35.5574 36,563.04
11/18/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 36,599.65
11/18/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9995 25.9995 36,625.65
11/19/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.8416 4.8416 36,630.49
11/19/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.5663 35.5663 36,666.06
11/19/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 36,702.67
11/19/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.0109 26.0109 36,728.68
11/20/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.8553 4.8553 36,733.54
11/20/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.6434 35.6434 36,769.18
11/20/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 36,805.80
11/20/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.017 26.017 36,831.81
11/21/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.8689 4.8689 36,836.68
11/21/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.6996 35.6996 36,872.38
11/21/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 36,909.00
11/21/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.0194 26.0194 36,935.02
11/22/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.8825 4.8825 36,939.90
11/22/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.8757 35.8757 36,975.78
11/22/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 37,012.39
11/22/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.1311 26.1311 37,038.52
11/23/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.8962 4.8962 37,043.42
11/23/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 35.778 35.778 37,079.20
11/23/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6158 36.6158 37,115.81
11/23/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.124 26.124 37,141.94
11/24/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.9099 4.9099 37,146.85
11/24/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.0157 36.0157 37,182.86
11/24/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 37,219.48
11/24/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2811 26.2811 37,245.76
11/25/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.9235 4.9235 37,250.68
11/25/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.0157 36.0157 37,286.70
11/25/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 37,323.31
11/25/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2811 26.2811 37,349.59
11/26/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.9373 4.9373 37,354.53
11/26/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.1656 36.1656 37,390.69
11/26/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6154 36.6154 37,427.31
11/26/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3487 26.3487 37,453.66
11/27/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.951 4.951 37,458.61
11/27/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.0092 36.0092 37,494.62
11/27/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 37,531.24
11/27/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3176 26.3176 37,557.55
11/28/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.9648 4.9648 37,562.52
11/28/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.2494 36.2494 37,598.77
11/28/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 37,635.38
11/28/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.3753 26.3753 37,661.76
11/29/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.9786 4.9786 37,666.74
11/29/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.236 36.236 37,702.97
11/29/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 37,739.59
11/29/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.2091 26.2091 37,765.80
11/30/2006 17:00 Interest USD 4.9924 4.9924 37,770.79
11/30/2006 17:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.5002 36.5002 37,807.29
11/30/2006 17:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 37,843.91
11/30/2006 17:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.1608 26.1608 37,870.07
12/2/2006 16:00 Interest USD 9.8041 9.8041 37,879.87
12/2/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 71.4307 71.4307 37,951.30
12/2/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 71.7041 71.7041 38,023.01
12/2/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 51.0121 51.0121 38,074.02
12/3/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.033 5.033 38,079.05
12/3/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.5023 36.5023 38,115.55
12/3/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 38,152.17
12/3/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.0488 26.0488 38,178.22
12/4/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.0469 5.0469 38,183.26
12/4/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.5415 36.5415 38,219.80
12/4/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 38,256.42
12/4/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.1561 26.1561 38,282.58
12/5/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.0607 5.0607 38,287.64
12/5/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.3983 36.3983 38,324.04
12/5/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 38,360.65
12/5/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 26.1287 26.1287 38,386.78
12/6/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.0745 5.0745 38,391.85
12/6/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.2866 36.2866 38,428.14
12/6/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 38,464.76
12/6/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9922 25.9922 38,490.75
12/7/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.0882 5.0882 38,495.84
12/7/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.5134 36.5134 38,532.35
12/7/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 38,568.97
12/7/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9627 25.9627 38,594.93
12/8/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.1019 5.1019 38,600.03
12/8/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.3262 36.3262 38,636.36
12/8/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 38,672.97
12/8/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9545 25.9545 38,698.93
12/9/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.1156 5.1156 38,704.04
12/9/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.3217 36.3217 38,740.37
12/9/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 38,776.98
12/9/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9476 25.9476 38,802.93
12/10/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.1294 5.1294 38,808.06
12/10/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.3022 36.3022 38,844.36
12/10/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 38,880.97
12/10/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9402 25.9402 38,906.91
12/11/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.1431 5.1431 38,912.06
12/11/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.3005 36.3005 38,948.36
12/11/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 38,984.97
12/11/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9808 25.9808 39,010.95
12/12/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.157 5.157 39,016.11
12/12/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.3707 36.3707 39,052.48
12/12/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 39,089.10
12/12/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.8953 25.8953 39,114.99
12/13/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.1707 5.1707 39,120.16
12/13/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.3615 36.3615 39,156.53
12/13/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 39,193.14
12/13/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.7855 25.7855 39,218.93
12/14/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.1844 5.1844 39,224.11
12/14/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.2223 36.2223 39,260.33
12/14/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 39,296.95
12/14/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.7676 25.7676 39,322.72
12/16/2006 16:00 Interest USD 10.397 10.397 39,333.11
12/16/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 72.2925 72.2925 39,405.41
12/16/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 73.2276 73.2276 39,478.63
12/16/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 51.5177 51.5177 39,530.15
12/17/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.2255 5.2255 39,535.38
12/17/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.1395 36.1395 39,571.52
12/17/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 39,608.13
12/17/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.7519 25.7519 39,633.88
12/18/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.2393 5.2393 39,639.12
12/18/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.0919 36.0919 39,675.21
12/18/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 39,711.83
12/18/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.7743 25.7743 39,737.60
12/19/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.253 5.253 39,742.86
12/19/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.2646 36.2646 39,779.12
12/19/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 39,815.74
12/19/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.8686 25.8686 39,841.61
12/20/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.2668 5.2668 39,846.87
12/20/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.347 36.347 39,883.22
12/20/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6159 36.6159 39,919.84
12/20/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.9745 25.9745 39,945.81
12/22/2006 16:00 Interest USD 10.5617 10.5617 39,956.37
12/22/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 72.5526 72.5526 40,028.92
12/22/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 73.2297 73.2297 40,102.15
12/22/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 51.6078 51.6078 40,153.76
12/23/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.308 5.308 40,159.07
12/23/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.2388 36.2388 40,195.31
12/23/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 40,231.92
12/23/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.7417 25.7417 40,257.66
12/24/2006 16:00 Interest USD 5.3218 5.3218 40,262.99
12/24/2006 16:00 Interest AUD/JPY 36.2388 36.2388 40,299.23
12/24/2006 16:00 Interest USD/JPY 36.6138 36.6138 40,335.84
12/24/2006 16:00 Interest CAD/JPY 25.7417 25.7417 40,361.58
13128.3346
What platform? Oanda? You gotta love Oanda ... it is always open ... even during nuclear war lol!
Allen Iverson leaves Philly; The Philly Fed Index takes a beating. Correlation?
Posted 17:59 21 December 2006 by Big Pippin
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pippinainteasy/allen_iverson_leaves_philly_th.html
Ok maybe not but the Philly Fed Index did drop to -4.3 compared to last month's index which was at 5.1. This was much lower than the expected 3.0 figure that was forecasted and shows that the manufacturing sector is still softening. Recall that the Empire index was relatively flat, and even though it's usually firmer than the Philly Index, this is a wider than normal difference between the 2 reports. However, if you look at the entire picture, it actually makes sense that the manufacturing sector is decreasing.
Real GDP in Q3 was revised down to 2.0% which was slightly lower than the 2.2% forecast. However, the more important rate of change to pay attention to is the year-over-year growth. Year-over-year growth for real GDP is 3.0% in Q3 compared to 3.5% in Q2. So what does all that mean? Well if you take a look at a what the year-over-year rate of growth has been for GDP over the past few months, you'll see that it is declining. Remember, GDP is the broadest measure of our economic health and if we see that GDP is dropping, it should raise some red flags!
Now let's break this down even further. What makes up roughly 2/3 of GDP? If you guessed consumer spending, then you are absolutely correct! So if GDP is dropping, that means a big reason is because consumer spending is dropping. If consumers stop spending, then businesses stop producing, and there lies the culprit for weaker manufacturing reports. Expect to also see weaker Industrial Production and ISM manufacturing reports in the next few weeks.
I still think consumer spending is going to spike up because of the holidays which will in effect, temporarily increase GDP and industrial production but the long term trend looks weak and if year-over-year GDP growth ever slips below 2.5%, the economy will be in deep "doo-doo".
Well that settles that! LOL! Thank you livin!
Do you know of any currenex brokers? MB Trading has EFX for example. Cannot seem to find one.
Thanks!
Ultimatepick
EMA/SMA Daily crossover system
http://www.fabrefactum.com/optimization.htm
Worth a look. You need to send him an email for the demo. Checking it out now.
Apparently this dude tried it and it does not work properly
http://www.robbooker.com/free_forex_advice/bot.html
Andrew Peters of Fabrefactum Software offered us the opportunity to test his TA Powerbot software -- which automates the entry and exit of trades, based on preset strategies.
I find this article interesting but I need your input on this. This guy says to not use more than 4:1 leverage PER TRADE!
I did the math and came up with this:
Assuming a 10 000$ account and 200:1 leverage his 4:1 leverage per trade amount is 4 percent per trade (40 000/1 000 000).
Most people recommend no more that 10 percent of total account size on any one trade. If we followed the 10 % rule we would be able to trade 1 big lot (100 000/1 000 000).
Of course if you bought GBP/USD it would cost you 1.9 times more. Be careful to take that into account also.
My question to all of you .... do you follow the 10% (10:1 leverage per trade)rule? 4%? What leverage do professional traders use? If you went long on EUR/USD and GBP/USD together you would be essentially DOUBLING your risk because they correlate reasonably and you are therefore doubling your leverage per trade (I ignored the fact that they cost more)
I would especially would like Mister Lava's and Elderwolf's opinion on this.
Thanks!
Ultimatepick
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/education/articles/favorite_strategy/How-I-make-20-pips-a-day.cf...
My goal is to Make 20 Pips a Day
By Marcus Locke
TradingMarkets.com
December 7, 2006 9:00 AM ET
You would think something as simple as what I am about to share with you would be widely followed, but you’d be wrong. Even in my own trading this simple concept seems to be beyond comprehension at times.
To survive trading in our beloved forex market, you have to limit your losses to the point they are minor annoyances. And then you have to take more in profits than you give up in losses. Pretty simple concept isn’t it.
But why do most traders fail to comprehend this basic truth of trading? Is it all in their heads? Perhaps, but we’ll deal with the head case aspect of forex trading in another article.
Right now let's get to the premise of this article, which is simply this: make it your goal to lock in a 20 pip net gain every day you trade. I know that sounds boring. Its not as sexy as hitting those 100 pip trades. But you are trading to make money not to entertain yourself right?
If not, you are likely to go broke, and sooner than later I’d guess. So lets get into the mindset that this is a Business, and it must eventually make a profit if it is to continue operating.
For starters you should be trading on a mini lot size account, where each trade unit or lot is only 10K.
Lets go over the math real quick. First lets discuss leverage, and how to honestly determine your actual trading leverage. Your brokers most likely tout that you have a 400:1 leverage account. This means nothing to us, other than if you think actually trading at 400:1 leverage is a good idea, you are a fool.
What it does mean is that the required margin deposit per open position is very low. This is a good thing right? Well yes, I suppose so. When it becomes a bad thing is when you decide to start leveraging your trades more than 5:1 per entry. Remember, leverage magnifies both gains and losses equally. Also remember that the broker is taking the other side of your trade. He wins when you lose. He would love it for you to trade like a fool.
Your actual leverage is calculated by taking your net open trade position size and dividing it by your account equity balance. So if you have a total open trade position of 250K, and an account equity balance of $10,000, your actual leverage in use is 25:1.
25:1 leverage is a dangerous level to play with if you want to trade for more than a few months. Once you get on the right track, and can hit more winning trades than losers, we will revisit the leverage issue. But until then you need to play it more conservatively.
We eventually learned to only trade at a maximum 4:1 leverage per trade entry. But we try to add to winning trades as they take off in our favor. So we might end up with half a dozen open entries at 4:1 leverage each, for a combined 24:1 leverage. We are smarter now about how we get there and that is one of the things we shall try to teach you.
So let's make our default trade size a maximum 4:1 leverage trade. Lets also assume that Fridays are not a good day for a beginner to trade. Trust me on this. And lets make it your goal to lock in a net 20 pips gain every day at 4:1 leverage. It can be a single 20 pip gain, or (2) 10 pip gains, or (4) 5 pip gains, the point is it’s all the same in the end.
The math comes out to this fact. Trading (4) days a week, locking in 20 pips profit a day at 4:1 leverage, your actual return on investment for that week is 3.2%. You scoff at a measly 3.2% right? What a waste of time you say...you could not be more wrong!
Even If you never increased your trade size the entire year, only kept your initial investment in the account, and stayed true to your 20 pips a day goal, that measly 3.2% weekly gain is an annualized 166.4%rate of return on your investment. Still scoffing at that? Didn’t think so.
Now many of you will do the math to check for errors. That is expected. Lets say you have a $10,000 forex trading account. In the above scenario your default trade size is 40K ($10,000 x 4). You manage to net your goal of 20 pips a day for a weekly total of 80 pips per 10K lot. So you take your 80 pips profit per lot x 4 lots per trade and you come up with 320 total pips for the week.
A mini account pip is worth $1 per lot on most pairs. So for the week you made a profit of $320. Big deal you say, that is hardly worth the effort and I can’t pay the bills on $320 a week.
Exactly! You cannot trade for a living with a $10,000 account and expect to stay around more than a few months. You will always be trying to hit grand slams and your stops will become very wide as a result. You will lose your shirt in no time flat. Retail Brokers count on this.
If you want to trade for a living, you need to figure out how much you need to make a week to live off, add a margin for unexpected expenses, and plug that into your goal as the outcome. Then work backwards to what size account you need to start with in order to be able to trade the goal and afford to pay the bills. Then you need to assume that you will not always make your goal no matter how hard you try.
In the mean time, keep your job, trade in your spare time, trade your goal, take your measly 3.2% a week profits and build your account to the point where you can afford to trade full time. By the time you manage to build your account up to that point, you obviously will have mastered the art of trading for your goal and the transition will be easier for you to handle.
If you cannot be satisfied with an uncompounded annual return on your investment of 166.4% you are a complete idiot and have no business trading currencies.
In the next article we will talk about various methods to help you reach that 20 pip a day goal.
Marcus Locke aka “MakoML” is an offshore fund manager at Mako Fund Management Group and specializes in discretionary FX trading. In addition to trading, Marcus and Associates provide subscription based FX & related market analysis and trade suggestions for professional traders and industry associates. For more information please visit their websites at MakoForex.com.
I only have a demo account with them for now for the charts. Their spreads are about the same as forex.com and fxcm so no compelling reason to move yet. I really like mb trading's 1-2 pips spreads for scalping when i come back from work.
The only thing I like about Forex.com is that they pay you interest even with 200:1 leverage. I get 1.3ish pips interest when I short the USD/CHF. I am on a high roll account. Just tell them you want high rolls.
As for FXCM I am with them for their intraday analysis long short ratio's.
It seems that different companies have difference tools that are useful.
So in the immediate future I just might open an MB trading or Currenex account for scalping.
Forex Training: Seasonal Currency Cycles
http://forex.gftforex.com/
December 22, 2006
The U.S. dollar has one coming up
Many currencies lose and gain in seasonal cycles. While not full-proof (Japan's traditional August boost was denied this year), it can help your forex trading success to understand the seasonals. The U.S. dollar, for example, typically does better in January than in December. Here is what India's Economic Times points out about the greenback in currency trading:
The so-called “January effect” is conventional wisdom on Wall Street. Investors believe the dollar tends to weaken in December as corporate investors close out currency hedges and foreign investors repatriate cash, but then it frequently strengthens in January as new hedges are established and foreign flows into US markets begin afresh.
Against a basket of major currencies over the past 30 years the dollar’s January performance has been better than December’s in all but nine years, and in 12 of those years a December fall has been followed by a January gain. This year though investors may have anticipated the “January effect”.
“Someone said to me ‘when shall we buy the dollar?’ and I said: ‘Right before you go to the New Year’s party,’” said Marc Chandler, chief global strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. “What is happening is people know about the January effect in the stock market, so maybe people start putting on their positions in December,” he said.
But, as you can see, the convential wisdom regarding the U.S. dollar and forex trading in January may lead to a bit of a shake-up this time around. In any case, knowing what others expect of the FX market can help you make better forex trading decisions.
The EUR/USD may go down to 1.3000 but then I beleive will shoot up. No more day trading for me ... impossible with my work schedule. I am now a swing trader .... not by choice though.
See the trend on the weekly/daily chart and go with it. Be prepared to have a 200+ pips stop though LOL!
Good luck all!
Have fun!
PS: I am liking GFT Forex more and more ....
Ultimatepick
http://www.stitrader.com/foresight/archive.asp
WOW! How often are they right? Do they predict every day?
I wonder if they use fundamentals in the predictions.
Are you sure this isn't Capitalist's site in disguise? lol!
Their spreads are bigger than other competitive brokers but you cannot beat their charts.
They even offer a mini account with 400:1 leverage! LOL!
http://www.gftforex.com/services/mini/
These are accounts are for me and Ataglance cause we got no money LOL! Now we can lose it faster with MORE leverage.
They even offer funding by credit card now wow!
http://www.gftforex.com/resources/deposit/
"The US dollar broke higher today after the University of Michigan consumer confidence report came out stronger than expected and bond yields skyrocketed. Although the UMich report may have partially contributed to the rise in yields, the size of the move in yields (which was big) compared to the size of the surprise in the confidence report (which was small) suggests that most of the move was related to pre-holiday profit taking. Ten year bond yields have increased by 7bp to 4.62 percent."
I have noticed that bond yields play a huge fundamental role in deciding which direction the USD is gonna go intraday. I need to know in realtime (is that possible) what the yields are.
The more weapons in the arsenal the better.
Help is appreciated.
Ultimatepick
Dealbook 360 from GFT Forex.
http://www.gftforex.com/software/dealbookfx/download.asp
It is the best charting software I have used to date.
Waldo is goin to 119.77! LOL! I told you to put a leash on him! Now you will need a 120 pip leash. Hang in there dude.
Ultimatepick
The only reason the EUR is goin down is profit selling ... but then again it could go down to 1.3000 ish .. but i seriously doubt it. We shall see. I am prepared to hold it with a 200 pip SL. This time averaging down is worth it.
Is this a EUR buying opportunity or what?
You gotta pay the energy bills.
[00:40 USD/CAD: Talk Of Option Barriers] After the rash of stop loss covering
overnight, USD/CAD has once again stopped shy of reported option barriers at
1.1580 and 1.1600. In addition, monthly natural gas and electricity payments
which US users pay to Canadian utilities on the 24th of each month are due to be
paid today and this may also weigh on USD/CAD during the rest of the trading
day.
Last Warning! Three-Pronged Collapse ... Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate
Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
Dec 18, 2006 - 05:41 AM
By: Money_and_Markets
Go for lovely charts and graphs:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article170.html
Today I want to give you one final warning on the crisis I see coming. I've told you some of this before, but I feel it's so important that it needs to be repeated one last time. Gold's rally back over $600, and recently to more than $640 an ounce, is telling us — in no uncertain terms — that a financial crisis of major proportions is about to strike.
The dollar is telling us the same thing — that the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. Government is plunging ... that all is not well. Just look at how the dollar has been falling against many of the world's currencies ...
The dollar used to be worth more than six British pounds; now, it's worth about half of a pound.
A greenback used to be worth three Swiss francs; today, the two are almost equal.
The U.S. currency has already lost nearly 30% against the euro, which is barely six years old.
And the dollar is at a nine-year low against the Thai baht, a country that recently experienced a military coup!
Worst of all, the dollar looks ready to plunge anew! [Editor's note: For an interesting read on the dollar's decline, check out Addison Wiggin's new book, The Demise of the Dollar... and Why It's Great For Your Investments
Now, I don't know exactly when the crisis will hit, or what the cause will be. It could start with derivatives, a hedge fund collapse, the bond market, or in some other over-leveraged, overly speculative area. Regardless, I see a crisis on the immediate horizon, and it won't be pretty. If you want to uphold your financial security, you should take action now. Don't delay!
In a moment, I'll give you some steps to take. But first, here's how I expect the crisis to unfold. What I envision is a three-pronged collapse ...
Prong #1:
The Stock Market Will Plunge
Like there's No Tomorrow
My trading models have guided me through every crisis since I developed them in 1982: The 1987 stock market collapse, the ensuing bull market, the first Gulf War, the peak in 1999, and the crash of 2000 - 2003. My systems flagged every one of these events well in advance. Right now, the models are telling me that the stock market has a bit more upside in it, and that when the crisis hits, stocks will be viewed as — believe it or not — a safe place to be invested.
The Dow Jones might even go as high as 13,000. But listen carefully: If stocks rally any further, as my model indicates, it will be the biggest trap since the Dow peaked in 1999.
Keep in mind, markets love to trap the majority of investors, and it always happens when least expected. New highs in the Dow will get most investors thinking stocks are headed to the moon, but the result will be a fitting end to the three-year bull market. Look, even if the Dow does manage a last rally, there is no way it's worth current valuations. It's trading at 17 times trailing earnings when earnings growth for the current cycle has likely peaked. Its dividend yield is a lousy 2.24%.
Plus, a falling U.S. dollar is devaluing asset prices for foreign investors heavily invested in dollar-denominated assets like U.S. stocks. Stocks in the U.S will not ignore these fundamental forces forever. So while the broad markets may rally one more time, even reaching as high as 13,000 on the Dow, I urge you not to get trapped.
Prong #2:
U.S. Government Bond Markets
Will Fall Precipitously
U.S. government bonds are poised for a major slide. There's no other choice here. Why? Because a slowing U.S. economy will make the dollar even weaker than it already is. Washington is the most indebted government on the face of the planet, with over $44 trillion in outstanding IOUs. That alone has been sending the value of the U.S. dollar into the gutter. Slowing economic growth will only make it worse.
The reasoning behind this is simple: Anyone who wants to lend money to the U.S. will demand higher rates of return to compensate for the risks. That's only natural. After all, would you buy bonds (lend money) to a company that's hugely indebted and whose sales are slumping? If you did, you'd want 10%, 11%, even 15% on your money.
It won't be long before investors in U.S. government bonds want the same. And the only way they'll get what they want is from a collapsing bond market, with prices falling and interest rates soaring.
Prong #3:
U.S. Real Estate Markets Will Take
One Final Nosedive before Rebounding
Property prices in the U.S. are still overvalued in most regions of the country. So another nosedive in real estate is likely, especially with stocks and bonds also collapsing. But mark my words: Sometime next year, after the dust settles, real estate will be one heck of a buy.
Why? Because there are three things that most analysts don't understand about real estate:
Land is in limited supply. And good locations are in even more limited supply. Waterfront property is the best example.
Construction and replacement costs are rising rapidly. Six years ago, I built a new home in Palm Beach County at a cost of roughly $65 per square foot of air-conditioned living space. Today, the exact same construction would cost nearly twice that because of rising prices for everything from lumber to paint.
Overseas investors with money are ready, willing, and able to buy property in the U.S. As the dollar continues to fall, these investors will switch from stocks to gold and real estate.
In short, by this time next year, I expect foreign investment to start pushing up U.S. real estate prices, especially in areas like Florida, Arizona, Las Vegas, New York, and California.
A big part of the capital flooding into U.S. real estate will come from Asia. Remember how the Japanese rushed into the U.S. real estate rush in the late 1980s? Well, this time, get ready for a huge influx of money from China and India.
In the meantime ...
During the Three-Pronged Collapse,
You Will Want To Be Invested in Gold!
Gold is already starting to soar. When the crisis hits, and the three prongs collapse, gold will soar like a rocket. I expect it to go well above $1,000 an ounce, and then, even higher. Remember, unlike stocks or bonds, gold has no debts, no earnings, no board of directors, no funny accounting statements, and no obligations to anyone but itself. Gold is the purest investment in the world. While paper money can be printed or devalued at will, the same cannot be said for gold. Gold is the only real money .
With that in mind, here are three steps to consider ...
First , minimize your exposure to the stock market. With the exceptions of the gold and natural resource stocks recommended in my Real Wealth Report , get out of all other stocks now. Don't even try to make it to next year to defer taxes on profits you might have. It's not worth the risk. I figure it's better to pay Uncle Sam his take than risk losing hard-earned gains.
Even if the Dow rallies further first, I believe it could easily give up 1,000 points by the start of 2007.
Second, continue to keep the bulk of your money in safe, liquid, short-term investments such as money markets. You can get 5% a year ... even a tad higher in some cases.
But by all means, stay out of long-term bonds, whether issued by the U.S. government or private corporations.
Third, if you don't own any gold, I think you're making a huge mistake.
The best way to buy gold, in my opinion, is the streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF (GLD). Each share represents 1/10 of an ounce of gold. When you buy this fund, it's kind of like buying a mutual fund, but one that holds only physical gold. Plus, you eliminate storage and shipping worries because the gold is held in trust for you. Or, if you'd rather buy a gold stock mutual fund, my two favorites are DWS Gold and Precious Metal (SCGDX) and Tocqueville Gold (TGLDX). As an alternative, look at the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX). This single investment holds ten of the largest gold miners in the world.
Stay safe and cautious,
by Larry Edelson
... your expectations.
What are you expectations?
Weak economic data has pushed the US dollar lower but not by much as the market is still reeling off of this past Tuesday’s strong inflation report. As long as inflation remains high, the market believes that the Federal Reserve has little choice than to stick to their hawkish bias. The biggest weakness today was in the Philadelphia Fed index and even within that report prices paid six months forward are expected to increase. The sentiment of manufacturers in the Philadelphia region dropped to the weakest level since April 2003, but on an ISM adjusted basis, the index increased from 51.0 to 51.8 (adjusting for ISM means to use the same weighting scheme as the ISM index). Overall, there is no argument that the manufacturing sector remains weak, but it may not be as weak as today’s headline Philly Fed number indicates. In fact, employment increased in both the current conditions and expectations component of the report. The other disappointments this morning included a downward revision to third quarter GDP, a rise in jobless claims, softer personal consumption numbers and an unimpressive leading indicators report. Tomorrow we are expecting durable goods orders, personal income and the PCE deflator. With a sharp drop in orders in the month of October, a rebound is expected in November. Personal income should remain unchanged, while the PCE deflator, which is a measure of inflation, is expected to tick upwards. We continue to see no reason for the EUR/USD to break its recent 1.3050-1.3350 trading range.
Pretty good assesement don't you think? The low volatility will probably make it break out though. According to the COTR data the EUR is goin up. Next week should be a show. But then again it might be incredibly slow.
Mister Lava, are you still shorting the EUR/USD? According to this data the EUR/USD is gonna go up and the USD/CHF is gonna go down hard. But the chart kinda says otherwise. What are you thoughts. I am speaking long term say 2 months from now.
Any input would be appreciated.
Thanks
..........................................................................................EURUSD GBPUSD USDCAD USDCHF USDJPY
Wednesday, 20 December 2006 18:47:18 GMT -1.41 41% Bullish -2.72 27% Bullish 1.72 63% Bearish 3.05 75% Bearish -1.48 40% Bullish
Wednesday, 20 December 2006 13:27:18 GMT -1.42 41% Bullish -2.03 33% Bullish 1.85 65% Bearish 3.14 76% Bearish -1.42 41% Bullish
Tuesday, 19 December 2006 17:10:23 GMT -1.49 40% Bullish -2.33 30% Bullish 1.49 60% Bearish 3.39 77% Bearish -1.39 42% Bullish
Tuesday, 19 December 2006 11:17:24 GMT -1.35 57% Bullish -2.28 70% Bullish 1.40 42% Bearish 3.66 77% Bearish -1.40 58% Bullish
Monday, 18 December 2006 16:44:56 GMT -1.11 47% Bullish -1.72 37% Bullish 1.49 60% Bearish 3.20 76% Bearish -1.34 43% Bullish
Monday, 18 December 2006 10:11:01 GMT -1.13 53% Bullish -1.86 35% Bullish 1.40 42% Bearish 3.37 77% Bearish -1.22 55% Bullish
Friday, 15 December 2006 17:01:33 GMT -1.10 48% Bullish -1.86 35% Bullish 1.45 59% Bearish 3.72 79% Bearish -1.27 44% Bullish
Friday, 15 December 2006 10:47:41 GMT -1.18 46% Bullish -2.04 33% Bullish 1.58 61% Bearish 3.97 80% Bearish -1.32 43% Bullish
Thursday, 14 December 2006 17:06:28 GMT -1.22 45% Bullish -2.09 32% Bullish 1.51 60% Bearish 4.24 81% Bearish -1.25 44% Bullish
Thursday, 14 December 2006 10:36:02 GMT -1.40 42% Bullish -2.10 32% Bullish 1.50 60% Bearish 3.85 79% Bearish -1.20 45% Bullish
Wednesday, 13 December 2006 16:55:31 GMT -1.50 40% Bullish -2.17 31% Bullish 1.51 60% Bearish 3.80 79% Bearish -1.14 47% Bullish
Wednesday, 13 December 2006 10:50:08 GMT -1.74 37% Bullish -2.21 31% Bullish 1.67 63% Bearish 4.87 83% Bearish -1.08 48% Bullish
Tuesday, 12 December 2006 16:37:24 GMT -1.71 37% Bullish -2.41 29% Bullish 1.47 60% Bearish 5.24 84% Bearish -1.05 49% Bullish
Tuesday, 12 December 2006 09:19:49 GMT -1.77 36% Bullish -2.33 30% Bullish 1.62 62% Bearish 5.37 84% Bearish 1.02 51% Bearish
Monday, 11 December 2006 16:48:32 GMT -1.86 35% Bullish -2.54 28% Bullish 1.62 62% Bearish 5.26 84% Bearish -1.06 49% Bullish
Monday, 11 December 2006 09:35:07 GMT -1.78 36% Bullish -2.44 29% Bullish 1.49 60% Bearish 5.11 84% Bearish 1.26 56% Bearish
Friday, 08 December 2006 20:09:16 GMT -1.84 35% Bullish -2.46 29% Bullish 1.52 60% Bearish 5.02 83% Bearish 1.28 56% Bearish
Friday, 08 December 2006 09:31:10 GMT -1.59 38% Bullish -2.45 29% Bullish 1.46 59% Bearish 5.71 85% Bearish 1.22 55% Bearish
Thursday, 07 December 2006 17:16:48 GMT -1.77 36% Bullish -2.66 27% Bullish 1.43 59% Bearish 5.65 85% Bearish 1.36 58% Bearish
Thursday, 07 December 2006 10:10:28 GMT -1.88 35% Bullish -3.03 25% Bullish 1.41 59% Bearish 5.58 85% Bearish 1.35 58% Bearish
Wednesday, 06 December 2006 17:14:37 GMT -1.78 36% Bullish -3.09 24% Bullish 1.44 59% Bearish 5.60 85% Bearish 1.28 56% Bearish
Wednesday, 06 December 2006 10:22:38 GMT -1.72 37% Bullish -2.80 22% Bullish 1.87 65% Bearish 5.36 84% Bearish 1.35 57% Bearish
Tuesday, 05 December 2006 17:08:25 GMT -1.77 36% Bullish -2.90 26% Bullish 1.88 65% Bearish 4.38 81% Bearish 1.37 58% Bearish
Tuesday, 05 December 2006 10:00:35 GMT -1.71 37% Bullish -2.47 29% Bullish 1.92 66% Bearish 4.05 80% Bearish 1.40 58% Bearish
Monday, 04 December 2006 16:55:21 GMT -1.63 38% Bullish -2.52 28% Bullish 1.74 64% Bearish 3.62 78% Bearish 1.33 57% Bearish
Monday, 04 December 2006 10:03:11 GMT -1.69 37% Bullish -2.50 28% Bullish 1.73 63% Bearish 3.68 79% Bearish 1.35 58% Bearish
Friday, 01 December 2006 17:34:24 GMT -2.09 32% Bullish -2.87 26% Bullish 1.65 62% Bearish 3.67 79% Bearish 1.36 58% Bearish
Thursday, 30 November 2006 16:59:55 GMT -2.28 31% Bullish -3.40 23% Bullish 1.87 65% Bearish 3.70 79% Bearish 1.38 58% Bearish
Wednesday, 29 November 2006 17:41:56 GMT -1.90 35% Bullish -3.78 21% Bullish 2.11 68% Bearish 3.22 76% Bearish 1.34 57% Bearish
Wednesday, 29 November 2006 10:05:42 GMT -2.03 33% Bullish -3.75 21% Bullish 2.38 71% Bearish 3.42 77% Bearish 1.34 57% Bearish
Tuesday, 28 November 2006 17:35:05 GMT -2.45 29% Bullish -4.09 20% Bullish 2.37 70% Bearish 3.51 78% Bearish 1.39 58% Bearish
Tuesday, 28 November 2006 09:56:04 GMT -2.35 30% Bullish -3.76 21% Bullish 2.26 69% Bearish 3.42 77% Bearish 1.35 58% Bearish
Monday, 27 November 2006 16:52:11 GMT -2.65 27% Bullish -4.30 19% Bullish 2.19 69% Bearish 4.15 81% Bearish 1.41 59% Bearish
Wednesday, 22 November 2006 16:51:59 GMT -3.94 20% Bullish -4.57 18% Bullish 1.39 58% Bearish 3.12 76% Bearish 1.39 58% Bearish
Wednesday, 22 November 2006 09:13:07 GMT -2.85 26% Bullish -2.97 25% Bullish -1.00 50% Bullish 2.69 73% Bearish -1.01 50% Bullish
Tuesday, 21 November 2006 18:25:27 GMT -2.00 33% Bullish -2.34 30% Bullish -1.07 48% Bullish 2.70 73% Bearish -1.26 44% Bullish
Tuesday, 21 November 2006 09:49:04 GMT -1.78 36% Bullish -2.23 31% Bullish -1.03 49% Bullish 2.59 72% Bearish -1.40 42% Bullish
Monday, 20 November 2006 16:53:23 GMT -2.02 33% Bullish -2.27 31% Bullish -1.10 48% Bullish 2.67 73% Bearish -1.42 41% Bullish
Monday, 20 November 2006 11:07:12 GMT -2.59 28% Bullish -2.00 33% Bullish 1.02 51% Bearish 2.54 72% Bearish -1.35 43% Bullish
Friday, 17 November 2006 16:53:40 GMT -2.56 28% Bullish -2.36 30% Bullish -1.07 48% Bullish 2.66 73% Bearish -1.25 44% Bullish
Friday, 17 November 2006 09:50:03 GMT -1.63 38% Bullish -1.64 38% Bullish -1.09 48% Bullish 2.30 70% Bearish -1.75 36% Bullish
Thursday, 16 November 2006 17:03:51 GMT -1.86 35% Bullish -1.89 35% Bullish 1.28 56% Bullish 2.99 75% Bearish -1.61 38% Bullish
Thursday, 16 November 2006 09:46:21 GMT -2.45 29% Bullish -2.14 32% Bullish 1.42 59% Bearish 3.18 76% Bearish -1.52 40% Bullish
Wednesday, 15 November 2006 18:16:46 GMT -2.22 31% Bullish -2.03 33% Bullish 1.32 57% Bearish 2.75 73% Bearish -1.52 40% Bullish
Wednesday, 15 November 2006 09:06:44 GMT -1.81 35% Bullish -2.73 27% Bullish 1.47 60% Bearish 2.54 72% Bearish -1.37 42% Bullish
Tuesday, 14 November 2006 17:41:05 GMT -1.85 35% Bullish -2.43 29% Bullish 1.36 58% Bearish 2.72 73% Bearish -1.31 43% Bullish
Tuesday, 14 November 2006 09:11:06 GMT -1.89 35% Bullish -3.22 24% Bullish 1.43 59% Bearish 2.52 72% Bearish -1.30 43% Bullish
Monday, 13 November 2006 17:27:33 GMT -1.81 36% Bullish -2.39 30% Bullish 1.45 59% Bearish 2.48 71% Bearish -1.62 38% Bullish
Monday, 13 November 2006 10:48:49 GMT -2.44 29% Bullish -3.72 21% Bullish 2.72 73% Bearish 3.23 76% Bearish -1.20 45% Bullish
Friday, 10 November 2006 17:07:05 GMT -2.61 28% Bullish -4.87 17% Bullish 3.59 78% Bearish 3.54 78% Bearish -1.01 50% Bullish
Friday, 10 November 2006 09:52:55 GMT -3.02 25% Bullish -5.93 14% Bullish 3.96 80% Bearish 3.54 78% Bearish -1.08 48% Bullish
Thursday, 09 November 2006 16:52:55 GMT -2.88 26% Bullish -5.40 16% Bullish 3.48 78% Bearish 3.80 79% Bearish -1.29 44% Bullish
Thursday, 09 November 2006 09:06:12 GMT -1.72 37% Bullish -4.33 19% Bullish 3.58 78% Bearish 1.84 65% Bearish -1.15 47% Bullish
Wednesday, 08 November 2006 17:49:12 GMT -1.66 38% Bullish -4.80 17% Bullish 4.14 81% Bearish 2.66 73% Bearish -1.13 47% Bullish
Wednesday, 08 November 2006 10:03:51 GMT -1.81 36% Bullish -4.65 18% Bullish 3.69 79% Bearish 2.95 75% Bearish -1.07 48% Bullish
Tuesday, 07 November 2006 17:54:35 GMT -2.05 33% Bullish -6.25 14% Bullish -6.25 14% Bullish 3.37 77% Bearish -1.05 49% Bullish
Tuesday, 07 November 2006 09:45:35 GMT -1.63 48% Bullish -5.10 16% Bullish 4.37 81% Bearish 2.42 71% Bearish -1.19 46% Bullish
Monday, 06 November 2006 17:05:11 GMT -1.37 42% Bullish -4.63 18% Bullish 3.92 80% Bearish 2.40 71% Bearish -1.53 40% Bullish
Monday, 06 November 2006 11:54:27 GMT -1.26 44% Bullish -5.01 17% Bullish 3.13 76% Bearish 2.54 69% Bearish -1.37 43% Bullish
Friday, 03 November 2006 17:45:19 GMT -1.20 45% Bullish -4.90 17% Bullish 3.72 79% Bearish 2.29 70% Bearish -1.33 43% Bullish
Friday, 03 November 2006 10:57:33 GMT -1.87 35% Bullish -6.62 13% Bullish 2.47 71% Bearish 3.10 76% Bearish 1.16 54% Bearish
Thursday, 02 November 2006 21:18:27 GMT -2.02 33% Bullish -6.56 13% Bullish 2.31 70% Bearish 3.24 76% Bearish 1.17 54% Bearish
Thursday, 02 November 2006 10:25:22 GMT -1.41 42% Bullish -5.60 15% Bullish 2.91 74% Bearish 3.07 75% Bearish 1.33 57% Bearish
Wednesday, 01 November 2006 17:40:26 GMT -1.31 43% Bullish -5.14 16% Bullish 2.56 72% Bearish 3.17 76% Bearish 1.10 52% Bearish
I straddled the CPI announcement last Friday and forex.com slipped me 40 PIPS!. DO NOT STRADDLE! EVER! Is that clear private?
LOL!
Seriously though ... thank the lord I did not bet big on that one. I learned my lesson. Unless you have a big stop loss 100-200 pips to ride or you have bloomberg then stay out of any trades during volatile news releases.
Good luck!
Ultimatepick
http://www.bfi-consulting.com/pdf/newsletter_2_2006.pdf
and
http://www.bfi-consulting.com/pdf/newsletter_3_2006.pdf
WOW!
It has many excellent articles:
Here is a taste :
The Threat of (More) War in the Middle East
The real question is: Does Iran threaten the Middle East
and other nations? We posed this question to the
American investment and political consultant Ron
Holland, an expert on Switzerland and president of The
Swiss Confederation Institute
....
He responded as follows:
“Iran does indeed threaten the stability of nearby pro-
American Arab states, headed by Sunni elite’s with
sizable Shiite minorities. However, Iran does not
threaten America’s stability by direct military invasion,
but rather through religious and cultural ties. Moreover,
there is little question that Iran will continue to do its best
to embarrass and harass the projection of American
power and our version of so called ‘democracy in the
region’.”
But does Iran pose a military threat to the United States
and other nations?
“The last time I can determine that Iran invaded another
nation was in 1825, suggesting that during the last
couple of hundred years they have not been an
aggressive power in the region.
On the other hand, after a quick read of Wikipedia, it
looks like at a minimum, the United States has been
involved in over 50 conflicts since that time, including
internal military invasions of Utah, the Indian Wars
(counted as one) and Lincoln’s invasion of the Southern
states.
Still, I doubt Bush will attack Iranian military and atomic
energy installations, at least until after the November
elections, for four reasons:
First, the US military is mired down in neighboring Iraq
and Afghanistan and the likelihood of a general war
would require more combat troops than the US can
spare at the present time.
Second, European and World opinion is already
sufficiently against the US, and if the latest atrocities are
proven true, this will only aggravate the situation.
Third, an attack on Iran would send oil prices through
the roof, plunging America and Europe into recession,
resulting in a doomsday scenario for the GOP during an
election year.
Finally, there is no assurance that an air assault on
Iranian targets would destroy their future nuclear
capabilities, and thus an effective assault would require
an out-right invasion and occupation of the specific
areas.
Although a quick, conventional military victory is assured, even a temporary occupation of Iran would
make Iraq look like a cakewalk. The potential would then
exist for a long-term defeat of the US in Iran, Iraq and
Afghanistan, which would destroy the future ability of
Washington to project military power and influence in the
region. This could threaten the stability of American
client states in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf States--
not to mention Israeli security.
Ultimately, if we invade, Iran has little to lose and a lot to
win, which is why Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad is doing his best to goad us into attacking
his country.
He wants an invasion because it could potentially make
him the most popular political leader in the entire Middle
East, as well as the largest problem for the United
States, provided Iran survives and he can claim victory.”
The SET composite index plummeted 108.41 points, the biggest one day drop in the 31-year history of the bourse, shedding 14.84 percent to close at 622.14 after being down nearly 20 percent at one stage. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/economicnews/view/248212/1/.html
It truly amazes me how incredibly dumb people occupy very important positions in this world. I can fracking do so much better even with ZERO training. I despise stupidity.
No I cannot sleep. I am convined that this EUR and GBP move higher is a panic move and wanna see how it pans out. PPI for CHF and the BOE minutes should be shit.
I am right 10 % of the time! LOL!
Ultimatepick
PS shorted the GBP/USD
Thai banking fiasco
Why did the EUR and GBP go up last night when the dollar was fundamentally strong?
Fundamentals win over techical any day of the week! Geeez!
Read this threat :
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=11531
I would really love to know the answer to that question.
Debut of the 'amero'
By Judi McLeod
Thursday, December 14, 2006
The People's Republic of China, long lauded by America's enemies as the world's next economic power, will be the country that will force the creation of the `North American Union' (NAU).
Kofi Annan's former pointman, Canadian Maurice Strong, has been boasting from Chinese soil that China soon would be replacing America as economic king, using the jingo that's the official language at Turtle Bay.
The billions of dollars China has invested in the flagging American economy will be worthless. They will have to negotiate the exchange rate to the new amero. This will then force the creation of the North American Union.
The cloak of the NAU, fashioned in secrecy, will be thrown over an unsuspecting public, erasing the borders of three countries. Mexico, which already has legions of its citizens living and working inside America, is, in effect already inside the NAU. Their governments will inform the American and Canadian people that there is no option but the bread line.
Unfortunately, the plan, which has been in place for some time, now, has been all but ignored by the mainstream media.
One of the signs that the NAU is on its way is the collapse of the American greenback dollar paving the way for the debut of the 'amero'.
“Two analysts who have reconstructed money supply data after the Fed stopped publishing it argue a coming dollar collapse will set the stage for creating the amero as a North American currency to replace the dollar,” (WorldNetDaily, Dec. 13, 2006).
The euro followed the same blueprint of stealth and surprise. It was already issued as replacement currency before the masses could coalesce to fight it.
Who ever would have dreamed that the euro of a secular bureaucracy one day would be accepted for use at the Vatican? Pope John Paul II, who repeatedly condemned the “moral drift” of secular Brussels, sanctioned an official Euro for the Vatican.
In appearance, the Vatican coin looks very much like other Euro coins. But on the flip side of the coin, the image of Pope John Paul II faces left.
“By permitting his image on this new coin, John Paul II has given another symbolic and powerful stimulus to the European Union, which with the issuance of the Euro, is taking an important step towards the Universal Republic,” said Atila Sinke Guimarnes in Daily Catholic.
Was it all that long ago when people said the formation of the European Union was impossible? Today, the EU European holds 27 nations under its authority with other countries lined up for membership.
In the US, experts are now predicting that the collapse of the dollar is imminent.
“People in the U.S. are going to be hit hard,” says Bob Chapman publisher of The International Forecaster newsletter. “In the severe recession we are entering now, Bush will argue that we have to form a North American Union to compete with the Euro.”
“Creating the amero,” Chapman explained, “will be presented to the American public as the administration's solution for dollar recovery. In the process of creating the amero, the Bush administration just abandons the dollar.”
While the amero is being groomed to enter stage left, another phenomenon has been gathering steam outside of media headlines.
The North American Union, which got its start in secrecy, has been pulled out of the closet by a grass-roots effort, that will force it onto the agenda when Nancy Pelosi and Company open the 100th congress next month.
Pressed on by Conservative Caucus Chairman Howard Phillips; WND columnist and author Jerome Corsi; activist and American icon Phyllis Schlafly, leaders of the 50-member strong coalition are poised to halt any effort by the U.S. to enter into a North American Union with Mexico and Canada.
Members of Schlafly's Eagle Forum have been in training for the past two months to lobby on Capitol Hill when Congress convenes.
The resolution—sponsored by Republican Reps. Virgil Goode Jr. of Virginia, Tom Tancredo of Colorado, Walter Jones of North Carolina, and Ron Paul of Texas—expresses “the sense of Congress that the United States should not engage in the construction of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Superhighway System or enter into a North American Union (NAU) with Mexico or Canada.”
It's no idle boast when Phillips says, “this could be the most important project on which we've ever worked.”
Armed with the Internet release of about 1,000 documents, obtained in a Freedom of Information Act request to the Security ad Prosperity Partnership of North America, the coalition has the potential to embarrass the governments of all three countries.
According to Corsi, “the documents show the White House is engaging in collaborative relations with Mexico and Canada—outside the U.S. Constitution.
Very little about the NAU has been covered by the Canadian media.
The documents can be viewed here, on a special website set up by the Minuteman Project.
The stage has been carefully set and only intervention will stop North America from taking the same stealth route that Europe took in creating the European Union and its legal tender the Euro.
US$: A Real Dilemma!
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Orlandini/dec122006.html
USD shoe about to drop?
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/dec132006.html
By Chris Laird
December 13, 2006
www.prudentsquirrel.com
In the last month, the USD has come bounding to the forefront of the gold market. There were several comments by the Chinese that the USD is due for a fall if there are movements away from continued accumulation of USD foreign reserves- that is not a surprise. And of course, Greenspan recently stated the USD is due for a gradual fall.
Also, there has been a spate of central banker’s comments this year that CBs should not be accumulating so many dollars, but to move more into the Euro, and other currencies. The Mid East Oil nations are among them.
And, the falling USD recently is causing holders of USD reserves to take losses. With China at close to $1trillion of foreign reserves, mostly in the USD, they have suffered roughly a 10% loss in their value compared to other currency alternatives.
And the Mid East oil nations as well are taking losses, and are complaining, and so on.
US/ China Trade Pressures
There is continuing trade pressure by the US Congress for sanctions on China if it does not address long standing trade issues with the US, the value of the Yuan/RMB for one, and other issues such as market access for US products.
But the most telling issue about the USD at this time is a meeting this week of a huge US banking delegation to China: Treasury secretary Paulson, Bernanke, and a host of other major US banking and trade figures and their entourages. So, why this level of meetings?
It could well be possible that there is a consensus now by central banks that there will be some significant adjustments out of the USD, and that the USD will be allowed to fall. The hope is for a controlled decline. In light of the level of these meetings with China, I believe much of this has to do with coordination and battle plans for a mutually agreed fall of the USD.
The other issue on the table will be how to combat any speculative front running of this event. For many years, the USD has never fallen below 80 on the USDX, a currency index that now heavily weights the EURO. Right now, the USD is again threatening to fall below that critical 80 level.
If there is agreement that the USD must fall, with China and other central banks, the Yuan will be allowed to strengthen, the Euro will strengthen, the GBP and many other currencies. Of course, gold will strengthen as well. In fact, if the USD is allowed to drop below 80 on the USDX, but it is controlled, say, maintained to above 75 for the first 6 months, we will see gold rise by at least 50 bucks in the onset of this.
However, it is not completely clear that the USD will actually be allowed to fall below 80. First, most large nations trading with us are very reticent to allow the USD to fall much. For example, the EU has repeatedly said they will intervene in currency markets to support the USD if the Euro gains much as the USD falls. Japan has unilaterally supported the USD in 04, and at other times jumped in, buying $billions to keep the USD up when it flagged near 80. They have done this when the Yen got near 110 to the USD. China has washed hundreds of billions of dollars of accumulated USD from trade, washing it with printed Yuan, and this is one reason for their astounding 18% money growth and banking problems…
In fact, people who speculate that the USD will drop soon below 80 on the USDX had better be careful, in any event.
But, this time, it may happen
Nonetheless. There appears to be a consensus to finally allow the USD to fall below 80. China has telegraphed this repeatedly this year. Other central banks, from Russia (always down on the USD anyway) to the Middle East are baying about their accumulating USD hordes, and finally, there appears to be perhaps enough economic strength abroad for these nations to actually permit a drop below 80 on the USDX this time.
The implications of this move are many. First, commodity prices, most primarily in USD, will rise. Inflation pressures will rise as a result globally. Interest rates will have to rise as well to compensate. Many of these goals are compatible with the economic strength and issues already in phase in much of the world. For instance, the EU wants to stall inflation, but cannot allow the Euro to strengthen too much vs the USD. But if the USD is allowed to fall, the US might have to raise interest rates anyway. That could allow further interest rate hikes elsewhere, like the EU, while allowing some US trade pressures to abate somewhat.
Even if there is some US economic retraction due to higher interest rates and a lower USD, that could abate the inflationary pressures of a lower USD as well, as some demand for commodities eases.
Speculator dangers
So, many of these central banks are looking at the prospect of a lower USD as something feasible. But, that is only if the decline can be controlled. IF speculators get ahead of this, the USD could drop too fast, and cause severe financial panics and stock collapses due to liquidations out of USD financial investments to flee the declining dollar.
It is not altogether clear that a speculative front run on the coming USD decline can be avoided. Just a few comments by Chinese central bankers led to a serious drop in the USD that scared a lot of people recently, when it dropped several points in a week or so to close to 82 on the USDX.
In my newsletter, I mentioned that the USD would be supported by central banks the following week above 80 on the USDX. That happened, but they may be just about ready to allow it to fall below 80 now.
So, I believe one of the key issues of this very prominent meeting with the Chinese and the Fed and the US Treasury is to make plans to manage a declining USD. Certainly, Paulson, a very crafty and high powered former Goldman Sachs investment banker, who has a great deal of credibility with the Chinese, is a factor in favor of being able to pull off an orderly USD decline.
In any case, this is a very big week for the USD. Another thing is that the holiday season could well be the perfect time to implement such a USD lowering plan, since many market participants are out for a long holiday.
Be ready for surprises
Also, be ready for surprises. When China cut the Yuan loose in 05, they surprised the whole world and were able to avert a costly speculative front run. This time is certainly no different, and this time it is a matter of readjusting the USD – not merely the Yuan/RMB. This time around the world reserve currency is about to be taken below the critical 80 level on the USDX.
Be prepared. It is a very risky time because of the incalculable nature of this pending USD change for financial markets. If this is not kept orderly, there will be serious turbulence in the financial markets, and this is why that very unusual group of US bankers is going to China this week.
The PrudentSquirrel Newsletter is Chris Laird’s weekly gold macro economic newsletter.
Stop by and have a look.
Christopher Laird
Editor-in-Chief
www.PrudentSquirrel.com
New Year's Confetti
By Richard Daughty
" The Mogambo Guru"
December 12 , 2006
www.dailyreckoning.com
Surprisingly, Total Fed Credit, which is the magical fairy dust of economics, went down last week, if only by a measly $1.6 billion. But the Federal Reserve helped make up for it by buying outright another $1.3 billion in US government securities.
The banks, always eager to please, placed another $37 billion in new loans last week, about a third of them mortgage loans, believe it or not, proving again that blind optimism still trumps fundamentals and statistics in America, sort of like my wife thinking that I am going to change one of these days.
The big news is that the Treasury Secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve are in China to hopefully make some deals, in which they will plead ("Please, please, please save our American economic butts!") with the Chinese to use their massive reserves, mostly dollars, and their growing political clout to keep this whole ridiculous economic mess from collapsing, and in return we will agree to give them missiles, weapons, fighter aircraft, war materiel, nuclear technology, supercomputers, a compliant Congress, our land, our businesses, our women, our children, barbeque sandwiches with a side of fries and anything else they want, as much as they want, anytime they want, which they will want because they are on their way to dominating the world. And now it is just a matter of negotiating how, and how much.
I say that we get the same thing in microcosm from Jim Willie and his Hat Trick newsletter, where we learn the sorry news that a lot of previous GDP growth was caused by people spending money that they got by borrowing against the artificially-increased equity in their houses, a dimwitted process known as Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (which should be known as A Stupid Idea To Increase The Size Of Your Mortgage Debt), that was created by the housing boom, which was created by a lot of desperate people who needed to make a lot of money in a hurry (mostly to make up for their stock market losses in 2001), which was facilitated by the loathsome Federal Reserve creating the money to finance it all, and allowed by an irresponsible Congress and government that routinely "looked the other way" at such reckless irresponsibility in the banks because so much money was to be made. But let me sneak off behind the garage to have a lousy cigarette, and it's some kind of big felony case or something. Go figure!
Now, says Mr. Willie "Cut in half, home equity extraction no longer comes to the economic rescue. The peak annualized cash jerked out of homes was $732 billion in 3Q2005. The latest recorded figure is $327 billion in 2Q2006, down by over half."
I admit that $400 billion is an incomprehensibly lot of money, and so to put this in terms low-life people like me can understand, suppose that last year I borrowed enough money from my generous father that I could spend $400 a week at Big Jimbo's Discount Squalor Gentlemen's Club, colloquially known amongst us regulars as "cheap rot-gut liquor and cheaper pot-gut women, all for a dollar at Discount Squalor", which usually seemed to get funnier the drunker we got. And further suppose that at $400 a week, I was their biggest customer by far, and everyone was real nice to me to my face (which would be a real nice change of pace if it were true!).
But now suppose I can only get a lousy $200 a week out of my skinflint, stingy dad, a cut which he thinks is supposed to teach me some stupid "lesson" about responsibility or something. It won't. It never has. But anyway, the question is "How much GDP growth will Big Jim experience, now that revenue from his best customer is down by 50%?" Hahaha! The answer is "negative growth"!
Unless (and this is the essential point of my argument) Big Jim loans $200 a week to me, so that I can spend and drink with my old reckless abandon, disregarding the fact that everybody else in town is also loaded to the gunwales with my IOUs and there is no way I can ever pay them even if I wanted to, which I don't. Think he will?
Now, substitute China for Big Jim, the falling dollar for the parsimonious parental unit, imported goods and consumer doodads for the cheap booze and ugly chicks. Think China will loan me the money?
Yeah. Me, too. But they will extort compliance from us and we will get the short end of every stinky stick from now on, and along the way the Chinese will teach some painful lessons to the Taiwanese, and the Japanese, and the British, and the Russians, and (of course) the Americans about what eventually happens to you if you ever act like vicious, bloodthirsty, barbaric, thieving, imperialistic scumbags towards the Chinese, who have long memories and a lot of face-saving scores to settle.
And what is this mess that we hope the Chinese will clean up that is so desperate that we are willing to accept that kind of deal? Rampant, stupefying corruption both public and private, bubbles popping, inflation in prices and a collapsing currency and economy, which is always what you get at the end of a long boom financed by creating excessive money and credit. It is amazing to me that anybody is surprised when it is happening again. A lot of embarrassing questions will soon be asked.
And the article "Housing Bubble Smack-Down" by Mike Whitney at Rense.com is also asking some embarrassing questions, such as "So, what was the 'Grand Plan' the Fed had in mind when they decided to anesthetize the American public with low interest rates and flood the planet with worthless green scrip?
"Did they think that Bush would corner the oil market and, thus, force the rest of the world to take our anemic greenbacks? Or were they just planning to steal every last farthing from the American people before they loaded the boats and fled to more promising markets in Asia?
"Or perhaps they were delusional enough to believe that really wonderful things would happen if they just kept tossing banknotes into the Jet-stream like New Year's confetti?"
Well, if Mr. Whitney had taken the time to call me, I would have told him that yes, some of them actually did think that! And still do! Milton Friedman, for example, said that the Great Depression would not have happened if the Fed had "just kept tossing banknotes into the Jet-stream like New Year's confetti"! And, astonishingly, Ben Bernanke is on record as saying that he agrees with that, and that not doing that exact thing was a mistake that the Fed will "not do again"! He really said that! It's in the public record!
In fact, the Fed actually stands in front of the cameras all the time and says that they really, really think that constantly creating more and more money with which to buy government debt, so the government could deficit-spend and expand, is great, great stuff, as their precious little equations and models have, they say, "proved".
But let me, The Mogambo, stand in front of these same cameras, pick a big ol' juicy Mogambo booger (BOJMB) out of my nose, hold it up for all to see, declare that it has thus turned into money, and everybody laughs! My face burns red with humiliation every time, but Alan Greenspan or Ben Bernanke will brazenly shoulder me aside, stand up there, basking in the limelight, and say that they will simply eschew the booger part, and not only create money and credit out of thin air, but also create a corresponding equal amount of debt out of thin air, and everyone applauds and goes wild with excitement! But which is actually more disgusting?
Mr. Whitney, obviously repelled by the repeated use of the word "booger", summarily cuts off the discussion by summarizing "Whatever the madcap rationale might have been, the country is now facing an agonizing wake-up call as the full-effects of Greenspan's tenure materialize and the stronghold of global consumerism deteriorates into Weimar USA."
And it will get inexorably worse, as the dollar falls and falls, as Bill Bonner of DailyReckoning.com, ever the clever wag that he is, quips "The United States can set up puppet governments in third world hellholes; it can whip any conventional military force on the entire planet; but it can’t force investors to take dollars at par."
Housing prices coming down is all over the news, and for a little education in what, perhaps, all this means, let's turn to John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter, where we learn "When residential fixed investment drops 10%, we have had a recession in the US." This is all very interesting, of course, but it gets even more so when he continues "RFI is down by more than 10%."
Now, as part of today's Lesson in Logic, let's take a look at that paragraph again. First, we have "When residential fixed investment drops 10%, we have had a recession in the US." Then, we follow that up with "RFI is down by more than 10%." Now, as your pop quiz question, fill in the blank to the logical extension "Therefore…"
If you wrote "we will have a recession" you got the answer correct. If, however, you wrote "we are all freaking doomed, just like The Mogambo said, and none of us has enough gold or silver or guns!" then you will get extra credit, but about which you will not care, as, since we are all doomed, who cares about some stinking extra credit?
Mr. Mauldin, who doesn't need the extra credit, got some anyway when he reported on the ISM report, and, in a modern miracle of concise, professional brevity, sums it up as "New orders, production, employment, order backlogs, and inventories were down. Prices were up."
I have to admit that at this point I was not really paying attention, being distracted by the lovely Suzette, the cute little new intern reporter from the Herald, whose lips said "Stop touching me! And get out of my way, you ugly, stinking old man!" but whose flashing eyes and shapely legs were saying "Give me all your hot monkey love, my Mogambo stud muffin (MSM)!"
I was, naturally, distracted in trying to reconcile this seeming paradox by gazing wistfully at her angelic face, and Mr. Mauldin was, I guess, surprised at my lack of typical over-reaction at the revelation that prices were up like that, especially since inflation is what always sends me into paroxysms of panic and despair.
So he pointed out, for my obvious benefit, "Notice that last three-word sentence in the above paragraph: Prices were up." Instantly, Suzette forgotten, my heart is beating like a trip-hammer, just like he knew it would, and I can see a little smirk of self-satisfaction on his face as he went on to say that the October ISM data showed that prices not only rose, but "went from 47 last month to 53.5 this month." Wow! Big percentage move!
But we were talking about real estate, not my heart, both pounding in fear and pining for the lovely Suzette, and sure enough, here is Kurt Richebächer, he of the eponymous Richebächer Letter, saying (I conclude) that we are right to be freaked out about this housing bubble thing, as "The use of credit in the wake of this housing bubble has been simply bizarre, outpacing all past experiences by far. Over decades until 2000, outstanding total mortgages accumulated to $4.8 trillion. In the second quarter of 2006, they amounted to $9.3 trillion. Mortgage growth over the last five years was almost equivalent to its growth over the prior five decades." Five decades of housing inflation in fives years! Yikes!
For those of you who think I am just another stupid, paranoid, lunatic, gold-bug, gun-nut, whack-o, pretty-boy pervert who over-reacts to everything, and that I would willingly gun down my own grandmother if she made any suspicious moves towards my stash of gold and silver, I say "Touché!", but even you have to agree that, even at my most outlandish, I am behaving appropriately to the roaring inflation all around us.
And not only us, but also for the Brits, as, according to Telegraph.co.uk, "The cost of living for many British households is up to four times the Government's published rate of inflation." Four! Real, wallet-emptying inflation is up to 400% higher than the lying British government is admitting, which is bad enough, as even "official" inflation is running at a hefty 2.4%!
They rudely ignore my handy statistical-oriented editorial blurb (the little limey snots!), but go on to say that "Millions of families are experiencing inflation far beyond the official rate of 2.4 per cent, new research suggests." In fact, they say that it "shatters the illusion that the Consumer Price Index -- used by the Bank of England to set interest rates -- represents the true cost of living as experienced by many households."
As you would expect, those on fixed incomes get the biggest whack to the wallet, with annual "inflation rates of almost 9 percent" for pensioners.
"Hard-up families," they go on to report, "getting by on £20,000 a year, saw their costs increase by 4.6 percent -- almost twice the national average and well above the annual rate of wage increases, 3.9 percent."
The article wimps out by not mentioning that these are the same stupid people who happily voted, year after year, decade after decade, for the economically-illiterate elected officials who allowed their central bank to cause this to happen to them. And I'll bet very few of them tuned into the Daily Mogambo UK Radio Show (DMUKRS) this week, which is too bad, as it was a big part, the major part, of my Mindless Mogambo Rant (MMR) editorial comment, in which I heaped loathing disrespect on the British variant of Earthling moron, and laughed cruelly at their pathetic whining about their miserable, yet so richly, richly deserved, plight.
More importantly, of the "news-you-can-use" kind, you should immediately move back home with your parents while you are still young enough, and strong enough, to beat the hell out of anyone, like your parents, who stand in your way, as "the increasingly large number of young Britons living at home with their parents -- and not paying mortgages or bills -- experienced deflation of 2.1 percent, since many of the items they spend their money on, such as clothes and electrical goods, are falling in price."
Deflation! These irritating little brats are experiencing a rising standard of living, while ours is declining! So, move back home today, and get some of that standard of living gravy for yourself!
The International Herald Tribune reported that America going down the tubes won’t cause a global recession "thanks to a European resurgence and the boom in Asia." Hahaha! This is fabulous!
For one thing, it proves that the Chinese government is just as stupid as our American one and their fiat currency will be just as worthless because of it, which I cleverly deduce from the article by Shailendra Kakani, of Commodity Research, titled "Plunge in US Economy Doesn't Mean Commodity Bear". In it, we find that China is officially encouraging people to spend money as a direct attempt to increase aggregate demand, which will increase aggregate supply, which will provide the jobs to buy the output. All very, very classic-economics and all that.
But it gets worse, as the Chinese are also starting up with that whole neo-Keynesian deficit-spending crap, too, but now combined with their own brand of stinking commie redistributionist crap that always ruins everything, as "Simultaneously," the article continues "the government is doing everything to bolster the income of its citizens. Recently the government raised minimum worker compensation and increased welfare spending to get households to spend more and make the economy less dependent on investment and exports." Hahaha!
The stupid Chinese are deliberately choosing less dependence on investment, but more dependence on government handouts and people depending on the government? Hahaha! Does that sound like any other stupid government you know first-hand? Hahaha! So is communist China acting like America, or is America acting like communist China? Hahaha! This is too rich! The dollar is doomed, and the yuan that is killing it is also going to be doomed one day, too!
And then, after hearing this, you laugh at me in scorn for suggesting that you buy gold and silver? Hahaha! That shows that you don't know anything about economics or history, my misguided young one!
This brings up my criticism of the standard contrarian advice these days, which is "Own foreign currencies, precious metals and foreign stocks", with which I don't completely agree. For one thing, foreign currencies are being "managed" by their own governments, too, just like the disaster with the mismanagement of the dollar. So those currencies will be going down in purchasing power, too. So, the question is, "Is a relative haven a real haven?" I say not only "No", but "Hell, no!"
The only thing you can do is own gold, which is the only thing that will consistently hold its value. That is the Iron-Clad Lesson of History. And you don’t have to actually read all of history, as all you have to do is listen to The Mogambo run his loud mouth about it, as I famously drone on endlessly, endlessly, endlessly about it, and will actually pursue you down the street to hammer it, hammer it, hammer it into your thick little head, louder and louder, and I never seem to shut up about it, according to whole baskets full of affidavits from family members and neighbors filed with the court, where, in case after case, the judges hand out Restraining Orders like candy or something.
Or you could read Addison Wiggin's book, Demise of the Dollar, to verify it for yourself, as there is a whole chapter titled "Short Unhappy Episodes In Monetary History". The quote to start the chapter, which makes the point I am trying so unsuccessfully to make, is from Norman Cousins, who said "History is a vast early warning system."
And, brother, is it ever! The chapter goes from the Romans debasing their money 2,000 years ago, to the Chinese, 1,000 years ago, first experimenting with paper money (which was soon abandoned because of the inflation it caused), to Rome, Spain, France, Germany, 18th Century United States, the Great Depression, and not even mentioning all the episodes of economic crisis in the last thirty years. And gold sailed successfully through every single one. Every one. Every.
And as for foreign stocks, I say forget foreign stocks, and foreign economies, and foreign people who all speak English with funny accents while rudely laughing at us Americans because we are so fat and stupid; if America is not going to be sucking up vast, sweeping flotillas of cargo ships full of their exports anymore because the economy is going down and prices are going up because the dollar is going down, then they are all going down the tubes, too, as we consume damn near a third of the entire globe's exports as it is! An $850 billion a year current account deficit proves it!
And as the dollar falls, because of the monetary and fiscal stupidity and the crushing debts which have destroyed us, imports will become more expensive for us, meaning that we American consumers will buy less when we can ("No more big-screen TVs!"), and buy less other stuff (things for children, like clothes, shoes and birthday presents) when we can't, because we must use our dwindling buying power to buy the necessities (gasoline and tacos).
To prove that the overwhelming majority of leading economists in this country are idiots, mostly because they think that their precious little equations are economics, and that the Wall Street Journal is just as ignorant of the fact that they are not, today the WSJ published an op-ed piece by a certain Mr. Edward C. Prescott, who is "senior monetary advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and professor of economics at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University". Despite those seemingly impressive credentials, he wrote the execrable and laughable editorial titled "Five Macroeconomic Myths".
To start off, he says "Myth #1: Monetary policy causes booms and busts." Hahaha! This mouth-breathing cluck says that it wasn't excessive creation of money and credit that caused the boom of the '90's, even though a hell of a lot of money and credit were created, which he doesn't mention. But instead, it was the product of "intangible capital management", which includes "R&D, developing new markets, building new business organizations and clientele!" Hahahaha! According to this amazing theory, the money for all of the boom just appeared out of nowhere! Poof! Pure coincidence! Hahaha! This is too, too, too rich!
He gets back to reality with "Myth #2: GDP growth was extraordinary in the 1990s", in which he says that GDP growth was not such hot stuff, historically, especially compared to the '60s and '80s. True, but horrifyingly so.
The '60s was the time of Johnson's big twin deficit-spending programs of the War in Vietnam and the War on Poverty, which caused the eventual economic "malaise" of Nixon and Carter, which tried to keep them both going, and caused Nixon to "close the gold window" in 1971, and thus caused the big inflation of the 70s that Volcker had to step in and almost the destroy the economy to fight, by raising interest rates to more than 20%!
And the '80s, freshly freed from inflation and bursting with pent-up demand, was the advent of both a huge increase in demand for stocks and bonds, thanks to the Congressional innovation of "tax-deferred retirement plans" (which meant that, as a result, anyone could start companies and sell stocks and bonds for damned near any reason, at any price), financed by deficit-spending, and then we had the idiocy of the Reagan years, where he slashed taxes, but went on a massive, insane borrowing binge to finance massive military and domestic spending programs!
And then the 90s was Clinton, which was merely more of the same expansion of government through deficit-spending (with more low-end, welfare-type spending), but boosted by much more "lying with statistics" about inflation, and with massive increases in money and credit. And it is even been massively downhill from there.
It is "Myth #3: Americans don't save" where he seems to make the insane, Hedonic jump of logic that buying stocks and bonds is "saving" (which has no possibility of loss of principal), when it is actually investing (where there is the good chance that you will lose money nominally, and the near-certainty of losing purchasing power of the invested money thanks to inflation, and probably both).
And he goes farther than that to actually say, and I am rubbing my eyes in disbelief because I can't believe I am reading this, that "saving" should include government investments, "like roads and schools and business intangible investments!" My hands are visibly shaking in outrage, but I am choking on my laughter!
"Myth #4: The U.S government debt is big" is next, and here we are treated (as if we are not entertained and thoroughly engaged enough so far to be busting a gut laughing) to the bizarre notion that only counting privately-held government debt is relevant, and that you should not count the tons and tons of government debt held by the Fed, or government debt held by the government itself! Hahaha!
He is saying that the government debt held by the government is not a debt! It's literally free money for the government to spend! I can't believe my eyes that I am reading this stuff!
But he saves the best for last with "Myth #5: Government debt is a burden on our grandchildren". This is the best example I have ever read of econometric stupidity combined with halfwitted socialist/communist dogma, as he says that debt is not a burden, as "theory and practice" have somehow "proved" that "the optimal amount of public debt that maximizes the welfare of new generations of entrants into the workforce is two times the gross national income, or GDP" Hahaha! Not according to any history of practice that I ever read, dude! Hahaha!
So (and notice how I am heroically trying to compose myself from screaming in outrage), if optimum debt is twice national income, and we get one more entrant into the workforce, you should increase debt by twice his contribution to GDP, and by going into debt this is supposed to maximize economic welfare?
By Peter Schiff
December 15, 2006
www.europac.net
This week, in what I believe to be an unprecedented diplomatic pilgrimage, the sitting U.S. Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve were dispatched to China. Ostensibly they were sent to pressure the Chinese into allowing their currency to appreciate against the dollar. In reality, they were more likely sent there to do just the opposite.
Despite the hawkish public tone coming from Washington, the private dialogue was likely to have been far meeker. My guess is that Bernanke and Paulson kowtowed to America’s biggest supplier and largest lender, and pleaded for them to keep the goods and credit flowing. Although it didn’t take place in Macy’s window, the affair may qualify as the “mother of all butt kissings.”
The last thing that Paulson and Bernanke want is for the world to recognize the financial precipice upon which the U.S. economy now teeters, and China’s unique ability to push it over the edge.
It is absurd to imagine that they would actually demand that China revalue its currency. Think about what such a request actually implies. It means that Americans would pay higher prices for the goods they buy and higher interest rates on the money they borrow. Does anyone really believe that American politicians are in China to demand higher prices and higher interest rates for American consumers? Since such a combination would surely produce a sever case of stagflation, does anyone really believe that Greenspan and Bernanke went to China to demand that they push the U.S. economy into recession?
It is far more likely that they are there to persuade the Chinese to maintain the current currency peg so that Americans can continue to enjoy the artificially high standard of living that the massive subsidy provides. No doubt they will likely try to convince the Chinese that doing so is in their interest as well, though I am not sure just how much longer that dog will continue to hunt.
Once Chinese officials grasp the concept that the only thing standing between their citizens and much higher standards of living is the currency peg, they will abandon it completely. The result will be abundance in China and scarcity in the U.S. China will then be awash in credit and consumer goods while America will be devoid of both and awash in paper dollars.
Think about today’s unchanged reading on November CPI, or Wednesday’s 1% gain in November retail sales. What would happen to the CPI and retail sales if both prices and interest rates surged? The biggest factor boosting retail sales was the 6.5% gain in consumer electronics. Does anyone want to guess where most of that stuff was made, or how it was paid for? How many big screen TVs could Americans “afford” to buy on credit if both prices and interest rates went up by 25% or more? As usual, the media interpreted the recent retail sales figures as evidence of a strengthening U.S. economy. Nothing could be further from the truth. Such sales merely reflect the strength of the economies that produced the goods in the first place, not the economy of the nation that went deeper into debt to consume them.
Ironically, during the very week that Paulson and Bernanke were trying to convince the Chinese to keep buying dollars, Alan Greenspan was making a good case why the rest of us should sell. The former Fed chairman, adding his voice to that of his predecessor Paul Volcker, predicted that the dollar’s recent slide would continue for years to come and cautioned that it would be foolish for anyone to keep all of their money in just one currency.
From my perspective it would be foolish for anyone to keep any money in U.S. dollars. If the Chinese come to their senses and pull all that American wool out of their eyes, then look out below.
Before they do protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it’s too late. Download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp
Peter D. Schiff, President
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
10 Corbin Drive, Suite B
Darien, Ct. 06820
phone 203-662-9700
toll free 888-377-3722
email schiff@europac.net
http://www.kitco.com/ind/schiff/dec152006.html
Iran replacing dollar with euro in foreign deals
Dec 18 4:51 AM US/Eastern
The Iranian government said it has ordered the central bank to transform the state's dollar-denominated assets held abroad into euros and use the European currency for foreign transactions.
"The government has ordered the central bank to replace the dollar with the euro to limit the problems of the executive organs in commercial transactions," government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham told reporters Monday. "We will also employ this change for Iranian assets (in dollars) held abroad."
The move comes amid mounting pressure from the United States for the UN Security Council to agree sanctions against Iran over its controversial nuclear programme. Elham added that Iran's budget would in future be calculated according to euros. "Until now the budget has been calculated according to revenues in dollars but this calculation will now change."
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/12/18/061218095123.sn4s0vlu.html
Report - China To Dump One Trillion In US Reserves
~I do hope this is bullshit~
HalTurnerShow.com
12-15-6
BEIJING -- Sources with a U.S. Delegation in Beijing have told The Hal Turner Show the Chinese government has informed visiting Bush Administration officials they intend to dump One TRILLION U.S. Dollars from China's Currency Reserves and convert those funds into Euros, gold and silver!
China was allegedly asked to withhold the announcement until Bullion Markets closed for the weekend to prevent an instant spike in gold and silver prices. This delay will give the world the weekend to consider appropriate actions rather than have a knee-jerk reaction which could see the U.S. Dollar totally collapse in value Monday.
According to this Senior source, China told the U.S. delegation they no longer have faith in U.S. Currency for several reasons:
1) The Federal Reserve Bank ceased publishing "M3" data in March, making it nearly impossible for anyone to know how much cash is being printed. China said this act made it impossible to tell how much a Dollar is worth.
2) The U.S. Dollar has lost upwards of thirty percent (30%) of its value against other foreign currencies in the recent past, meaning China has lost almost $300 Billion simply by holding U.S. Dollars in its reserves.
3) The U.S. has no plans whatsoever to reduce deficit spending or ability pay down any of its existing debt without printing money to pay it off.
For these reasons China has decided to implement an aggressive sell-off of U.S. Dollars before the rest of the world does so. China reportedly told the US delegation; "we are the largest holder of U.S. Currency and if the rest of the world unloads theirs before we unload ours, we will lose our shirts."
Early this week, in an unusual move, the Bush administration sent virtually the entire economic "A-team" to visit China for a "strategic economic dialogue" in Beijing Dec. 14 and 15.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke lead the delegation, along with five other cabinet-level officials, including Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez. Also in the delegation is Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, Energy Secretary Sam Bodman, and U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab.
The Bush administration wanted to get China's cooperation in preventing a dollar collapse. The Hal Turner Show has been told the effort failed.
According to the source, Fed Chairman Bernanke left the meeting "pale and in a cold sweat" as the implications of China's decision seemed to sink in.
The implications are enormous: The U.S. Dollar is likely to collapse in value against all other major currencies as early as Monday, December 18.
This would cause a worldwide sell-off of dollars, create almost immediate "hyper-inflation" in the US and also impact world markets at a level "worse than the Great Depression of 1929."
Arabs to the rescue?
In a strange twist of fate, Arabs and OPEC may come to the rescue of the U.S.!
Senior officials in OPEC made clear that they too would be severely harmed if the U.S. Dollar collapsed, and hinted they "would not be inclined to sell oil to any particular nation that intentionally caused such a collapse."
This was a thinly veiled threat to China, which depends heavily on OPEC oil for its rapidly developing energy needs.
The OPEC officials even went so far as to say "Since China lacks the ability to project their military power, OPEC nations need not worry about any Chinese military response to an oil cut-off."
Such brutally candid remarks will not sit well with China; and signal ominous things for the U.S. .
Arabs and OPEC will want something in return for saving the U.S. from economic collapse and it is already widely speculated what they want will be a complete change in U.S. backing of Israel in the Middle East.
If such demands are made by the oil-rich Arabs, the U.S. would be left with little choice but to virtually abandon the jewish state to preserve itself.
UPDATE - 10:18 PM 12-14-6
The Washington Post confirms. . . .
'US, China Clash On Currency'
UPDATE - 12:07 AM EST
Saturday, December 16, 2006:
Additional sources, one in the U.S. Commerce Department and another in the US Treasury have confirmed the initial report above and referred me to another, Third, source in the Pentagon.
Both the Commerce and Treasury Sources report that while China will not be able to simply trade their Dollars for other paper currencies, they will spend their U.S. Cash on commodities such as gold, silver and Rhodoium as well as military hardware; ships and planes, placing large orders and paying for those orders with the one point one trillion in cash dollars they possess.
Extreme Military Concern
In speaking with the contact at the Pentagon, I am able to now report the Pentagon views this currency-killing as a cunning military aspect to Chinese plans:
The Pentagon says that while China has a 2 Million man army, they lack the logistics and heavy lift capability to move that army and supply it. They can, however, get that military to South Korea and to Japan.
The Chinese see that the U.S. Military is over-stretched and almost exhausted by its globe trotting Commander-In-Chief. They feel that by intentionally destabilizing the dollar, the U.S. economy will fail, putting tens of millions of Americans on the unemployment line and putting unbearable pressure on the US Government.
Then, with the U.S. economy in shambles and its manufacturing base eroded by a steady stream of manufacturing plants moving out of the US., the American government will be too occupied with troubles at home to do much internationally. America will be in no position to challenge China, allowing the Chinese to act militarily elsewhere in the world;
Further, if the U.S. attempted to intervene against any Chinese military action, the only plant in the world which can manufacture the specialized gyros needed for U.S. Cruise Missile guidance systems, is now located in. . . . .China.
China could prevent that plant from shipping to the U.S., and once our arsenal of cruise missiles was depleted, it would take a long time to re-tool a plant to make more gyros and resupply cruise missiles for battle. The Chinese feel they could accomplish certain military goals before the U.S. could re-tool.
They are also confident the U.S. will never "go nuclear" as long as the U.S. itself is not attacked.
The Pentagon source went so far as to say "Even if China was to lose the entire one trillion in cash to a collapse of the Dollar as a currency, they will have succeeded in taking the U.S. off the world stage as any type of effective military or economic power -- without firing a shot!" A 'classic' Sun Tzu paradigm of victory - the art of fighting, without fighting.
The crippling of the US is a highly desirable military benefit for China at a relatively cheap price since it will leave their human capital and infrastructure assets in place; assets they know they would lose if a hot war erupted with the US.
http://www.rense.com/general74/report.htm
Can you tell me exact symbol?