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My favorite kinds are where the price lags the fundamentals, so I hope you’re right...it makes buying a lot more certain and you can buy on facts, not hype/hope
Since I’m wildly in love with this stock, figured I’d update this analysis I did in a previous post...
So for fun lets play the Tilray vs. FLRF game (now that Tilray is up at $95/share).
Tilray 75m shares @ $95/share = $7.5B Mkt Cap
Tilray last Qtr rev = $10m, annualized = $40m
Tilray trading at 188x revenue
FRLF current market cap = $34m
FRLF has in disclosures identified Revenue streams that could in theory produce $30-$40m in revenue, so lets say $20m potential to be safe.
If FRLF achieves half that revenue and lets assume to be conservative that Tilray’s revenue multiple of 188x is 50% too high (frothy) so we use 94x...
So $20m rev x 94 = $1.9 BILLION market cap.
Current market cap = $34 at ~ .18 share price, so at $940m market cap, share price would be roughly $10.00 per share....
So with a ‘frothy’ valuation, could FRLF run to $10/share in a few years? Even if that scenario is 75% too optimistic (even with my conservatism above using 1/2 Tilray’s multiple and half identified revenue potential) and you’re still looking at $2.50 per share...FRLF would have to be on the NASDAQ for this to occur but still...wow.
Zero catalyst to buy and longs know what they own, too cheap to sell...thus, gridlock
Awesome thanks...but how does that ‘flag’ investors? Aka if I wasn’t on iHub I would never know about this 8-K without actively searching for it...aka is it possible there will be a delayed reaction to this (or any other 8-k)?
Ok thank you and forgive me denseness on the topic, I’m trying to reeducate myself out of the ‘all dilution is bad’ mentality.
So this 8-K is a good thing for the following reasons (?):
1. Its a vote of confidence in the company by the PE firm buying shares
2. The favorable purchasing prices in the future is again a vote of confidence that they expect the price to be considerably higher in the future or they wouldn’t agree to those increasing purchase prices above current prices
3. Yes more shares being issued, but the company is still at an operating loss so this is the most favorable way to fund that loss while it gets to break even...
4. This could be viewed like a (very) poor man’s version of the Constellation Brands investment in Canopy Grow...?
So investors see this favorable term investment and react positively....how do investors become aware of these 8-K’s? I saw it here on iHub, but not on my TD Ameritrade News for FRLF...(again, sorry, rookie questions)
Tired of waiting on the bid...slapped that ask and did it...GOT TO 100,000 SHARES!
I think that 8-K news hasn’t really been priced in yet....I saw this on SugarMade...an 8-K came out when it was at .03 about a pending deal, and about 2 days later it ran like crazy up to like .12 or something...
This 8-K might not cause as big a reaction but still think its not on a lot of radars...
BUT, what I don’t understand is how this investment further locks up the Float? Isn’t this going to be the issuance of new shares? I’m confused.
Yeah and I don’t ready even view it as late, because if you go back to the last run, there was no Greenhouse, no La Marijuana, no Irie, no Tierra, etc....totally different business in my mind...basically to get all that good news in the 6 or so months where the price was falling 75%, to me makes an investment now so much more valuable than one several months ago (aka what you get for what you pay)...to me an investment back at .06 was a ‘faith’ investment in what they could do...and kudos to those with the foresight! But an investment now is a fact investment based on distinctly identified revenue streams.
I saw this stock back at .06 in the last MJ run but just DID NOT see the business plan vision...I saw a magazine and MJ advocacy and said ‘where’s the money in that’?
And still it rose to near .50...
Now, with all the new developments since then I totally get it, the vision and potential is amazing...and still I have a cost basis under .15...
All things considered I count myself blessed to have gotten on board...
Can you expand on what you mean by Ray saying “more investors getting on board”?
Yep!
Some silly investor just sold me 2,500 more .16 cheapies...nom, nom, nom!
My understanding is they would be ready to issue their annual results mid-month, so probably waiting to release all info at once...this may be the last week to buy at these levels.
Yes great close!
I took another small bite at the apple today at .16...just as my wife get’s a manicure when she’s had a long day and wants to give herself a little ‘treat’, I go buy more FRLF...
My guess is that when the 10k comes out in a week or so, it will have forward looking revenue information and that will push us into mid-20’s...
Awesome post Midas. You make me want to buy even more.
Holy smokes!
Agree, on a lot of stuff they’ve done a sh*t job, but to unrealistically have everyone continue to push for fast results just doesn’t align with the reality of how long it takes to build a business
Can we let the ink dry on the deal first before we write the obit please!
Have you ever run a business? If you merged with another company you expect to instantly have PRs and business actions out?
I just went through an affiliation and it was 2 years of chaos to just get all the systems talking...
It hasn’t even been 1 month! If this is a made up pump and dump business then yes they can spit out PRs at will to investors impatient liking.
If this is a real company, WORK TAKES TIME!!!!!
Please, all seasoned business people please chime up if you could acquire another company and then turn another deal in 3 weeks...I’m a finance VP in a mid-sized company and I know how long real business transactions take which is why you don’t see me here whining about no PRs and “what’s wrong with Tom”...SMALL BUSINESSES TAKE TIME TO DEVELOP...
Believe me, I so wanted my 10,000 order in the .13’s to fill and now wish I’d just gobbled them up yesterday, but now have enough that if this is the rocket ship leaving for Mars, I’m good to go with both feet firmly planted!!
Great 2 days off the .138 lows! Go FRLF Go!!!
Its red because of 1 $33 trade...
If Tom’s dumping daily, where is the trade volume???
Makes no sense...
On what volume?
What is the disconnect that the Canadian MJ’s are soaring, but the US plays (POTN, FRLF, SGMD, etc.) are lagging...this happened last year if I recall correctly where Canada ran in December and US ran in January...am I recalling right?
Just a timing issue?
Wish I’d bought some Canadian just can’t justify those valuations...would rather buy FRLF trading at 1x identified annual revenue flows and wait for the valuations to catch up...
Others thoughts?
Wish you the best...if you’ve got the ‘stones’ to go in this big, you deserve the big payday if it works out!
Nice bounce up to .155...glad I grabbed in the low .14’s early...
Me too! Set orders a few days ago, got them all filled...now setting lower ones and waiting.
Am I wrong that the chart shows support at .14...does anyone see it going below that?
Proof.??
Proof??
Yes so as far as calling Ray...in my other two big OTC plays, one has an IR email that never replies to anyone and the other you’re lucky if you get a generic reply a few days later...
With Ray and FRLF, I emailed to ask for a call and a day or so later HE apologized to ME for getting back to me late!! Then proceeded to talk to me for 40 minutes!
This company is special...its cut from a different cloth than almost any other OTC play I’ve personally seen. This is my first investment here in OTC that feels like an investment and not a roll of the dice...
I love that I can actually buy and hold this OTC stock and research and analyze it and not feel like a “fool” for thinking that is actually a wise thing to do.
Total BS, this stock is the cheapest valued MJ play in the OTC...future winner!
If what done now? Is there another deal in the works?
We will be to .04 in the next 2 weeks.
Its easy to stay friendly when we all know we’re going to make gobs of money and when management is super transparent, Pelosi’s son is Board Chair and the share structure is clean...happy happy joy joy!
I hear you, even though I’m a long, frustration is the dominant emotion here...I just continue to fall back on the fact that the valuation at present incorporates all of this downside so that we’re fairly priced and ANY sort of positive news (that is backed by revenue) will send this at least doubling...at least...
Yep...but I guess they’ve only been a new entity for a few weeks, we have to give them a LITTLE time to put a plan in motion...
Yes exactly, float is so locked that when someone wants in big price goes way up like we say last week or so and when someone wants out it goes way down...its bounced back since the sale...this is the reality until something happens.
Me too! Got my coveted 5,000 shares, now have my full core position! Both feet in the boat! If it dips I’ll buy more.
I’ll be providing more analysis on FRLF when work slows down which I believe will be helpful...real winner here!!
Check out INMG....most undervalued MJ play I know of....market cap of $2M, low 172m float, no debt and tons of room to run...just acquired 5 new brands and 10 lines of business...
So for fun lets play the Tilray vs. FLRF game.
Tilray 75m shares @ $50/share = $3.75B Mkt Cap
Tilray last Qtr rev = $10m, annualized = $40m
Tilray trading at 94x revenue
FRLF current market cap = $34m
FRLF has in disclosures identified Revenue streams that could in theory produce $30-$40m in revenue, so lets say $20m potential to be safe.
If FRLF achieves half that revenue and lets assume to be conservative that Tilray’s revenue multiple of 94x is 50% too high (frothy) so we use 47x...
So $20m rev x 47 = $940m market cap.
Current market cap = $34 at .18 share price, so at $940m market cap, share price would be $5.00 per share....
This will take a few years to fully realize this revenue and uplist, etc. but still makes you salivate a bit...
PS, got into a bid-sitting battle with someone today during the last 2 hours of trading...we kept taking small ticks up from .1732 to .1733 to .1734, etc. etc. I don’t think either of us got it filled but it was still fun, just curious if it was someone on this board.
LA, I continue to bow to your greatness for changing my initial knee-jerk reaction to FRLF and talking me into really researching it and ultimately investing here...bought more today and am now 5,000 shares from having my core position...should get there tomorrow or soon.
I’m excited to make some money with you (though sounds like a lot less but I’ll still be happy!) and with everyone here.
Good move! I grabbed 7,250...after yesterday’s run felt I may have missed the boat to get more...happy to see this buy opp...
FRLF for life!!