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Not sure on the specifics behind the additional 10M shares but they definitely need to do something with their PR department. Problem is on any given day just one person with a decent position needing to get out to cover bad margin calls or just moving money to another ticker can create a downfall of 10-30% because there is almost zero interest in buying here anymore. Pretty frustrating too see such a big opportunity wasted but hopefully we get some type of updates soon about this impressive portfolio they have put together.
They saw an out to delay another month and took it. I expect this back at trial in July and hopefully things go well on our end with the new jury where they can then decide to settle at the last possible moment or suffer a very unfavorable verdict. If they take it to a verdict expect an appeal on the last possible day.
Yes another flaw in the countless routes to scaring a shareholder. Hoping no one will catch the flaws in the endless posts of repetitive nonsense.
Have you ever owned a stock longer than 6 months? If you can't... then you should try flipping and you might find more success.
Where did the 140 million units number come from? Just curious as that would average out to around 11 million units on average over a 9 year period which seems kind of small, however depending on the age of infringement for some of these companies being years less and then also the early on stage of the infringement units were substantially less as the tech was being newly implemented.
I think there are too many unknown values for any of us to determine the total in damages here, however one can see how the number could very easily be bloated to $5+ billion, especially with willful infringement on the table for the biggest culprit - Comcast,
I live in Boca Raton right near the office. Don't communicate with Paul but if there is anything I can help observe or investigate let me know.
Would be pretty comical if that is all just nonsense and noise from a total lie.
A vote amongst common shareholders. Where Billy owns majority interest. Makes me feel like my best interests are taken care of. LOL!
Again, how is there any pathway for Carter to receive money if there is not for UOIP? If as you claim Chanbond is not owned by UOIP then Carter has nothing to do with this case and will receive nothing from this case. You cannot claim both at the same time. It's either UOIP does not own Chanbond and Carter gets nothing or UOIP owns Chanbond and Carter and shareholders will be compensated based on the waterfall chart.
"Carter was negotiating with defendants" - yet UOIP does not own Chanbond apparently... LOL!
Carter only has any affiliation to Chanbond through UOIP.
Which one is it? Please answer.
They have minimal shares - their cut is protected where they get 50% of all proceeds net of lawyer fees/bentham in the waterfall.
I was not aware such high haircuts were taken at settlement in cases of this magnitude. If that is the case you might be closer to the ballpark than I was in my estimates. Even with the 40% haircut at settlement I don't see how it could be anything below $750 million. 40% just seems really high but when there are other forces at will here as SN noted - influence from large companies, it might cause the plaintiff to settle for much less than one would think to walk away without anymore exposure to risk.
I'm in the boat of those thinking this will not settle now anyhow. I believe we will be going back to trial and will see an appeal. This could take another 10-11 months in worst case scenarios in that route. Regardless there is a lot of money on the table here and we need to make sure that the SS is correct and accurate. We need to make sure the fraudulent actions (IPNav cut and UO!P cut) are withdrawn altogether. We also need to figure this Bentham ordeal out if it's possible. The 25% of a multi-hundred millions settlement or billions verdict is absurd in a big way and the loans that Carter/Leane took should not effect our share of the final amount.
Interesting. Thanks for the info SN as usual always appreciative of your take.
It’s surprising this has even held .08. People want out and there is barely any support. Once folks decide to start selling into the bid this will really crash hard. Unfortunate
So in your experience a 40% discount is pretty standard at the table where settlement is determined?
Seems this thing is just done for at this point. Quiet periods tend to do that but it’s crazy there has been a disappearance of any type of bid support here. From .20 to .08... going to take a whole lot to get it back to .20 alone which took very little from to take it down from there.
Then after the waterfall breakdown (as long as Carter’s 20% is done away with) UOIP shareholders take home about .15 in this case
Okay simple.
Quick math tells us $133 x 9 just between Comcast, Charter, and Cox. Comcast at 5x value (could be very low to reality), Charter at 3x, and then Cox at their 1x. I’m basing this off of units in operation.
$1.197 billion between those 3 at the lowest possible range for Comcast and charter. At a 40% clip in settlement you get $718 million just between those 3.
This is all rough calcs so could be some differences leaning toward the heavier side in favorable instances for us.
They created tech that made data transfer much quicker? How many units did this effect at the time that they sued and how much was the valuation per unit?... Your comparing apples to oranges. The valuation experts don’t just put a value on the tech for the plaintiff to then go and take 1/4th of the bottom end of the range.
Then Carter is left out altogether. What a smart guy he is in that circumstance.
Where would Carter garner anything if UOIP did not own Chanbond?
In this case we are riding to our UOIP vacation in my new yacht.
.21-.29 per share carrying 28% for the lawyers and 25% net of lawyers proceeds for Bentham. As Specialneeds declared - the lawyer fees could be closer to 20% in the end. Not to mention Bentham could be negotiated further... In the end there is plenty of upside with already a decent return on the table.
If this occurs, then Billy and team are the worst negotiators in the world given the opportunity they failed with.
Again, Billy is not "giving" us anything. He will pay what he is ordered to pay legally.
Even at .28/unit your looking at figures above closer to $2 billion dollars. Anything above that and it grows pretty quickly. I have my doubts this will settle by July 9th. The defendant's actions just recently, show their intent from the beginning of the stay on the case with the binding term agreement. They are showing they will absolutely ride this until the wheels fall off. Could be looking at another 10 months in worst case scenarios if we win at trial, appeal, wait for court to decide on appeal, appeal granted and drawn out the length. Regardless we need to keep our heads in the game as there is tons of cash on the table.
I don't think it matters what people post on this board in reference to what Billy is "willing to give us"... He won't "give" us anything. He will try to get away with paying out the lowest possible amount to shareholders or payout what is rightfully ours (left to much volatility due to multiple waterfall charts in play). It is up to our legal team to protect our interests and make sure we are treated fairly.
What matters in my opinion is discussing these lowball numbers to temper expectations of shareholders which will discourage a team of shareholders to continue supporting the legal team financially when it might be required for success.
In short, we need to keep our head in the game here and realize it is worth our financial support to protect our interests as the figures here are life changing for some, and very nice returns for all.
It's a tell tale sign of the stance Billy and lawyers are taking at the table. I expect nothing less than $1 billion is even being discussed because that is an absurd slap in the face to the valuation expert - pegging his lowest figure in the range at about double what they were willing to take in the end.
.28/unit is low ball and well above a $2 billion judgement in the end. No reason to discuss sub $1 billion figures at this time.
The global settlement would need to be at least $600 million for .10/share as outlined below:
Global settlement value: $600 million
Attorney Fees (28%): $168 million
$432 million
Bentham (25% net of attorney fees) $108 million
$324 million
CBV (50% remainder) $162 million
UOIP (50% remainder) $162 million
$162 million/1.6 billion OS = .10125 PPS
In order to get to .15 you would need to be in the ball park of $900 million.
As discussed these sub $1 billion figures are very low ball when diving into the number of units and the rate per unit per month (at the very least .28/unit). Even $2 billion is pretty low. But for settlement sake, we can assume $1.5-2 billion in play. I think it is more likely we see closer to $2 billion than $1 billion with upside for much more if they take it to a verdict.
The sub $1 billion figures just seem silly to discuss in my own opinion. Once you get to the $2 billion range now your talking the .33+ PPS range.
This makes little sense the part where you say you don’t want to see a firm retained in our circumstance. That is the only route at this point.
Sorry if we don’t want to concede for pennies when the tech is worth billions with simple math, yet we are discussing being okay with hundreds of millions. I guess it doesn’t matter anyways, legal action is already imminent.
I agree with this post. If in fact they had real intentions of delaying with this flaw in the system to try and drive it out just a little bit longer and have the opportunity to get a new more favorable jury in to hear their argument. Maybe the defense felt they failed hard at their first attempt and wanted to take another route with a new jury - ie. the cookie analogy.
$400-800 million is lowball when a medium sized company out of 13 just got put on the hook for $133 million (the lower end of the range) at trial and walked away the day the valuation expert got on the stand.
To those who have died in the line of duty to protect our freedoms here and now, I express greatest thanks. Often we get caught up in daily struggles and conflicts that are usually petty and superficial that we do not realize how great we have it here in this great country. And thank you to all those who have served to preserve the great country your predecessors fought and died to protect. All citizens owe you their appreciation and respect. Thank you.
Which leads me back to my original statement that it is pretty ridiculous that this is an out for the defendant. They can delay some more and get a new jury when they don’t feel the jury is favorable for them. Another example of our flawed court system.
If they decide to take this back to trial, I think that it will go to decision and we will prevail but then it will be appeals in play. As long as they continue to profit on the tech and only pay for the tech cents on the dollar they will just kick the can down the road until the last possible moment.
I agree. If the 20% is gone then it will mean fighting for what is ultimately a much larger number given the solid circumstances with this tech.
I think the writing is on the wall what we intend to do, so he might be preparing for the latter. Who knows at this point, all we can do is our part to protect our interests.
Exactly, temper expectations and then the team falls apart on future decision making to fund a legal team to protect our interests.
I’d like to hear an explanation for the low end range otherwise it seems very baseless. We can’t just compare ourselves to other tech when this tech is spread across the country in a big way and used in virtually every household and business place. Your selling this short which is pretty mind boggling in my own opinion. I think you’ve lead yourself to believe we should temper our expectations in a big way because you’ve seen who is leading the charge here and in control, still a very flawed perspective.
I also heard from you first that this thing was 100% settled per your very credible contact just a few short days ago. Amongst other things. I am just saying we need to keep our heads in the game here. Numbers are numbers and that is what the lawyers are after, not just some other case.
“Although we know our tech is worth billions based on the valuation expert you backed down against within a day, we will accept $400 million because it’s what all the other tech cases are going at. Cheers.”
Sounds pretty lame to me.
To follow up, I stand firmly at my $1.5 billion bottom end right now and that’s really giving out discount. Let me give you another example:
Between Cox, Charter, and Comcast the amount of units in place is currently around 180-200 million. Let’s cut that number in half for units in place averaged out over 7 years (the first year might have been 10-20 million units between the 3 and then averaged up over the followed years considerably as the tech became imperative to data transfer speeds). This brings us to 90-100 million units x .28 (bottom valuation number). That is $2.1-2.3 billion over 7 years. This is 3 companies of 13. This is the lowest possible rate in the valuation measures. Note that Cox lawyers (Comcast team) gave up on the second day of trial after arguing with our valuation expert. They don’t have much to stand on at the negotiation table.
I’m not understanding the ultra low estimates here. And this is why we have people ready to take action legally as we have a lot to lose leaving it up to those who were clearly out to bend us over from the get-go. Let’s keep our heads in the game as this is a big event in each of our lives.
From what I remember I understood of the waterfall it was to be no less than 5x loaned amount or 25% of the total number in the end. I don’t know where you get the capped at $25 million number. I figured if Bentham loaned out 5-10 million then they at least walk away with $25-50 million regardless if UOIP acquired as little as $100 million at the end. Maybe I’m mistaken.
This is a flawed way to think of it in my opinion. Decision makers here will not just settle for $800 million or less when billions are on the table when they took it out this far knowing the risk they take with the actions they’ve taken as officials of UOIP. Billy will deal with all of this after the money is in place. Not knowing how things will play out legally - I assume he would get every possible dollar at the negotiation table as his 20% might be kaput.
Not sure how you could make the statement no billion dollar figure is possible here. Comcast has 100 million modems in place at the moment. At the bare minimum valuation per modem (which is highly unlikely as they gave up so quickly facing our valuation expert) - your looking at .28 x 100 million modems x 12 months x 7+ years. Clearly they haven’t had 100 million modems since roll out, but let’s chop it in half to average it out and say 50 million units. That is still over a billion dollars alone based on the smallest valuation in play and a conservative figure for modems averaged out. Not to mention they gave up on first day of cross examinations when being sued at a roughly .40 per unit clip so I don’t see them going much less than that figure even close to the bottom .28 figure.
We will agree to disagree, but just placing a 400-800 million valuation on settlement because of other cases that have nothing to do with this one nor the parameters of scope and value as this one is a flawed way to project the final number. I stick by the math for now and hope for the best.
Philhump does not post much but when he does he really shows his intelligence. Great poster.