I shoulda just posted this...

"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.” -James Stockdale

Not intended as a bash. We just gotta recognize our vulnerabilities and keep level heads; now more than ever. JDubs

Stockdale Paradox - Good To Great by Jim Collins


"we continued the slow walk toward the faculty club, Stockdale limping and arc-swinging his stiff leg that had never fully recovered from repeated torture. Finally, after about a hundred meters of silence, I asked, “Who didn’t make it out?”

“Oh, that’s easy,” he said. “The optimists.”

“The optimists? I don’t understand,” I said, now completely confused, given what he’d said a hundred meters earlier.

“The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say,‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.”

Another long pause, and more walking. Then he turned to me and said, “This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

To this day, I carry a mental image of Stockdale admonishing the optimists: “We’re not getting out by Christmas; deal with it!”

To understand the effect of a message board on shareholders, particularly many of us (me too), I recommend reading the section in Jim Collins' "Good to Great" on the Stockdale Paradox.

JDubs

BB- I like GH's thinking too. I think that a roadshow is a coming out party for ERHE and however she looks at that point in time.

WB and Co. would use that time to share particulars about the deal they've made.

Jay

Funny you mention, I actually did miss an exit. LOL

You're right. I shouldn't use the "buy-in" term so loosely. The fact is any deal Brandhuber makes will likely be pretty sophisticated and is, at the end of the day, anyone's guess at this point.

In the car today, I got to thinking that a buy-out may be the way to go (to your point). I'd gladly give 3 ERHE shares for 1 Addax share if the result is a 51% Addax 49% SNP company.

Cramer seems to focus on regular retail investors. I sent an email a while back that was very direct and too the point. Basically, wake up and start talking about the US/China oil race (I use the analogy of the arms race between the US and Soviets.) The "education" I've received over the last year and a half of owning ERHE enabled me to speak somewhat coherently about the subject on the phone.

You're right, I'm no expert. Just lucky I guess. JDubs

I agree 100%.em

I think the plan progresses as follows:

1. Announcement of some kind of deal (buy-in probably)
2. CNBC feature
3. Roadshow

Walter is a German attorney/engineer/finance guy. To me this means he's got this planned out down to the smallest detail. We've managed to get through a lot so far. My gut instinct is that he's kept quiet in order to keep us off the radar screen. With firsthand knowledge of any negotiations/deals, he may even be thinking "they'll thank me for keepin' my mouth shut when they hear what we've put together."

We need to give him the benefit of the doubt, at least through July in my opinion.

JDubs

Good question. I'm not in the industry, but it looks like a lt of action planned for '06 and presumably with ERHE.

Addax Annual Report says they will spend $353mm on FPSO leases in '06, then falls off dramatically in next few years. What do you oil guys make of this?

OT- Johnnyreb: Come by Towson Ave. for coffee next Wed. a.m. if you would like to say hi. Anyone associated with Michael and his dad is a friend of mine. I would like to meet you. JDubs

"Swiss" chocolates em

gotcha.

Where in AR?

I've been invested here over a year (short term by most standards) and in that time BM articles are often heralded and in my tenure as a shareholder they have all been off the mark. His article last night reminded me of times in the last year when his writing led me to believe that he was manipulating the pps with his stories.

My prediction for today is that the price will either be up or down. ;)

P.S. Still waiting to hear back from Mr. Rippey, Cramer's producer, but sent him email last night asking when they're going to contact me next week.

JDubs

OT- Must be the clean livin'. I got to sit in the company Platinum seats at the Mavs/Suns game tonight. Heck of a week I've got goin'. JDubs

Investorbynight-You're out!LOL (no problem)em

Art- You make a good point.

I'm not sure that they can be trusted not to "manage" the float; in essence using currency as a weapon for lack of a better word.

EF back up. em

EF didn't work for me this a.m. comet to think of it.

Does the filing of the income statement yesterday have any significane in all of this? em

So, let me put two and two together; Jane let go, bring in Carol who is pleasant and nice to callers but not an insider - no potential leaks there. Big news by end of May, and now filings not showing up under the symbol. Nah, probably nuthin.

OT- Nationals commentator Bob Carpenter played guitar on the Church worship team I sing on prior to his relocating to D.C. to do play-by-play for the Nationals. JDubs

Has anyone else noticed that the last post on RB was yesterday @ 5:45 pm? Strange.

I clicked on company financials and got the same message. Probably a glitch, but got my fingers crossed. JDubs

BB-Don't tease me like that!em

Straw poll: How many of you think I should refer Walter Brandhuber to Cramer's producer? Dadd, maybe you could set up a survey for this? JDubs

BSK- Excellent summary and easy to understand for this layman. I'll include it in my notes. Thank you! JDubs

Thanks Dadd. em

Can anyone share a link for the WSJ article saying CVX has found 1 billion barrels? em

OT- Mark, now you're really on my good side.

SMU here.

Perge!

If this thing actually happens, I will have to mention to Cramer that my 2 yr old starts yelling "Skee-daddy" when I play Mad Money on the XM between the babysitter and our house.

No, I live in Oklahoma (but I'm not an oil man.) A while back, I sent Cramer an email asking him why he wasn't covering the rematch between CVX and China off of W. Africa. Frankly, I sent it out of frustration and I'd forgotten about even sending it then, lo and behold, I received an email this a.m. from Cramer's producer asking me if I'd call into the show and discuss the issue with Jim Cramer on the air for about ten minutes today.

After speaking with his producer, it was decided that my question would be better suited for a show that covered oil and gas; particularly with the strategic and economic importance of petroleum today. The producer told me that he'd try to set something up for next week.

As Dale Carnegie would say, I used bait that suited the fish with my simple email.
JDubs

OT I may have to change my Romans 8:35 to 2 Timothy 1:7. A beautiful verse. em

Excellent point. I've added it to my list of info. Thanks! JDubs

In other words; no pressure...LOL

I will be more than happy to give up my spot on Cramer's show for Walter Brandhuber. em