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Mnuchin does not make the decisions. They sent Meadows to sabotage any bill, once there was no chance they let Mnuchin go on his own... the message is a little stark, right?
I am just puzzled by the political strategy that the Trump WH is running, and has run, and its stance on a relief bill.
If they want any chance in the Fall, they need to pass a bill FAST. The states and cities are hurting and will be on their knees in the fall, all those laid off workers are hurting, CV is now rising in rural areas and Republican states the fastest... Yet the Trump WH continues to say -- and apparently believe (!) -- that the pandemic is under control. They still won't support a universal mask mandate or even whole heartedly press a PR campaign to that end...
Who is advising Trump? The continued denial of the pandemic is a disaster, but they have doubled down continually. The sensible response would have been to blame someone, then get after a national plan and policies -- they could have turned pandemic response into a positive. They still could, but just won't. (Places like Georgia that sent kids back to school are already spiking...)
It appears Meadows has been (and apparently still is !) a skeptic about the pandemic and we know he is a fiscal conservative, and so deeply opposed to spending nd another relief bill... I think appointing Meadows as Chief of Staff may have been one of the most unfortunate moves Trump made. Right now, the political judgements, and strategic moves, are not helping Trump but burying him. Until he fires Meadows, and/or gets an new political adviser, then I will continue to think Trump is toast...
Mnuchin being thrown under the bus?
Mnuchin got too much good press on first relief bill - so now he is the one telling everyone talks have failed. Is he going under the bus like all the others who got too much good press?
Well it is over $2, for the moment, but $2.1? Getting cheaper every time I slum it over here...
Delay the administrative action, then the Conservatoship-for-Life will provide a deep source of funds for affordable housing...
It is the death knell of administrative action if they delay... and that is exactly what the goal is
Berkowitz Fairholme Fund
45% St Joe Company
15% FnF (prefs)
33% cash
Now why pay the management fees? You can model this portfolio pretty easily yourself - IF you want the St Joe company
A strange path Berkowitz has taken -- he might make money with his cash in a correction. But who is to say he won't just buy more St. Joe? lol
Other of his funds own ALSO some OXY and WES, then Imperial Metals which I do not know...
Yeah, tbh I think it has obviously been a classic value trap - and I think there is an increasing risk that is what it continues to be...
Very long leap, almost 50% undervalued even at OXY’s depressed price. I think OXY May pop and I am optimistic about oil and gas prices over next 12 months...
Thought I would mention it, OXY reports after market on Monday
FFF, I was thinking of Pagliara's financial record which fine but not exactly stellar...
BTW I would take a look at the OXY warrants tomorrow, trading as OXY+, at TD Ameritrade
Recently distributed, so holders are selling en masse and it got to $4.30 today and I bought a lot. I think it goes lower tomorrow, I will probably buy too large a position if it hits the $3's
The details are it is a warrant to buy OXY common at $22 and it has a 7 year duration. Black Scholes says it is worth around $7 by my reckoning, so worth a look imho
I also think oil and OXY is going higher over the next year, so you get an undervalued option and potential further upside
Thought I would mention it... if you hate oil and/or hate OXY, then it is not for you... lol
Even if this is true, and I am not sure it is, I am not sure Pagliara is a savant who I want to follow. Just IMHO...
Triple trains says NO...
Plus there is still now news to sustain this higher, will bleed lower over time till election
God knows what the different election outcomes do to the SP...
Three trains ALERT - the rally killer has launched
Sub $2 in next few days...
Big risk-on day, and can't get over $2?
Gonna bleed out by Fall...
I also share the disappointment with the Trump administration, but I did not expect much from someone like Calabria coming from Cato Institute etc
Delinquency will only get worse into Fall -- this inept stoppage in unemployment will panic a bunch of people into various categories of deferal, delinquency etc
Calabria has said that admin action can only take place if economy is right -- the economy is WORSENING and so is risk of no admin action
A lot of people here debate common vs pref, but you need to start discussion admin action vs NO admin action -- odds are lengthening against action imho
But carry on like Bradford, stick your head in the ocean, dream about the possible gains, and ignore the risks... it usually ends badly
Yeah, I am curious whether Barr thinks he is going to pay a price or not -- if he thinks this is business as usual and he simply walks away he is very, very deluded. Going to spend the rest of his life under investigation...
Not at all familiar cos it goes asap to SCOTUS which 9-0 tells his loser ass to git...
No one in this country, but one, wants to trample the constitution like that... not the Army, not the Congress, not the Courts. It will be resolved PDQ imho
Joseph, if there is no admin action, it gets to Biden admin, then why not an endless conservatorship? Even if SCOTUS rules NWS illegal, and overpayment goes to companies, there are no divvies for pref and no scenario for par... On what grounds, and who?, sues Treasury to end the endless conservatorship? It is not receivership, but pref has no practical value - I would say that is check... and mate
Back under $2... how far can it bleed by Nov? $1.50? All the way to a $1? Curious to see
Checkmate on pref is if Mnuchin says no admin action or "I wait for SCOTUS ruling"...
Checkmate on common is if Mnuchin and Calabria do a Big Bang in Nov/Dec and agree that remainder of senior pref, and JPS, are converted to common...
Bove saying this or that is not even chess, sorry
I have thought he is a busted flush for a while...
TRCPA, seems like a smart strategy, but I would balance the common with pref too, just in case...
I will wait to see where it goes thru Oct before coming back
I made some earnings season investments, but boy do I want to be back to cash :(
Really? Does anyone, anywhere, care what Dick Bove thinks or says?
To say Bove has been all over the map is being kind. And it is far from clear he has any sources, or any particular expertise/insight, on these issues
His choice in ties alone suggests he is completely without judgement
You *hope*... Nove/Dec is also...
...just after President goes down to massive loss -- so has no political capital at all
...when economic data will look grimest
...when the recession likely is beginning to bite as stimulus runs out
But, sure, administration will do the Rabbit from the Hat move on FnF, rather than just turn tailing and running -- I would resign in August if I were Mnuchin (tho all the savvy folks have already left...)
Back under $2 - as predicted!
OK, that is the ticket!
Triple trains ALERT -- under $2 by Friday
The ultimate rally killer, always sell the triple trains people -- ALWAYS
So they are going to relist RIGHT SMACK in the middle of the home stretch of the Presidential election???
Laughable, really... LOL
FFF, thanks for your thoughts which are always interesting and productive.
I am out of FnF till the election at least...
I have been fully invested a couple of times, like you, but with higher quality names than MFA and IVR -- you are braver than me. I have traded way, way more than I ever have before, but taking profits in names like CEQP pref, ENLC, PK, SKT, SRG and others has done really, really well for me, too.
So thanks for your encouragement earlier, I did take the plunge near the bottom and did very well. I have been in and out since then. I am fully invested again right now but terrified of a correction. I just want to take some profits and go back to cash, but not quite there yet -- a vaccine rally would be great and I would be largely out on it. (I have a couple of things I am heavily in for the long run: WFC, LGNG, AROC, PSTH.U... If you have any ideas to share I always appreciate them even if you are braver than me!)
I think the Fall is going to be grim and probably when we have a big correction again, hope it is not sooner...
Kthomp, not sure about this political black eye from SCOTUS - any such ruling comes in Biden term right? Mnuchin waits for SCOTUS Ruling means the admin action is over under Trump right?
The tax cut was supported by the Republican Congress and so was passed by the people’s duly elected representatives to benefit ALL citizens... Admin action would be a back room deal to benefit Trump cronies - and the cries of corruption go up. Maybe Trump won’t care but he is a thin skinned and unpredictable creature
Anyway, I will see where SP goes and what cash I have in Oct, then I will decide... this market is such a shit-show that this might be comparatively attractive by then lol
Only because Robinhood does not trade OTC stocks lol -- otherwise there is no rhyme or reason what the mob latches on to...
Not sure how much more, or less, risk there is than betting on the Rabbit from the Hat move by Mnuchin and Calabria in a lame duck session after a landslide repudiation by the electorate involving an adminstrative action the media lablels a "hedge fund giveaway"...
There is a HIGH RISK that the Rabbit from the Hat move is just not gonna happen... imho
Hi Kthomp, I also think people are just not thinking through where we will be politically IF there is a landslide against Trump, the house republicans and the senate republicans.
Forget political capital in that scenario, we are actually talking reputational capital -- will Trump and Mnuchin want to be labelled as rewarding hedge fund buddies in a last minute, lame duck, move? You can see the headlines -- the "Biggest heist in US history" etc etc And what do they get back? Nadda -- nothing but trouble... And these folks are very transactional
Frankly, I think ACG looks a little implausible right now -- they may have a partner with friends in the administration but what is the word of folks in this administration worth? It is factional, chaotic, mercurial and untrustworthy...
So, I am really not seeing it on that line either
What is more interesting is whether a SCOTUS victory does much if Biden is in power? Can a Biden administration just continue the conservatorship, and refuse to pay divvies on pref, for ever? What forces them to change?
Sorry to be so negative, I have been "worst case" assessing all my holdings recently, alongside "blue sky" scenarios...
Thank you for your candid thoughts, I appreciate them
Kthomp, so the Trump team preserves political capital to use it on other topics -- BUT you think that after losing an election they are going to do what will be a massively unpopular adminstrative action that will be condemned as "hedge fund giveaway"...
I just don;t buy it any more, the Rabbit from the Hat is likely not going to happen imho
Thanks for sharing your insights as usual
FFF, once trust and credibility go for a public figure then it is hard, if not impossible, to get it back
Trump stripped himself of that trust and credibility with these incredible actions on the pandemic, I have no idea why he did what he did (or did not do)
But with the trust gone, Trump can stage all the riots in Seattle he wants, people no longer give him the benefit of the doubt -- he is toast (and it is only getting worse because people see him manufacturing issues) imho
I am not convinced Biden administration will be worse than do-nothing Trump administration hamstrung by congressional Republicans and lobbyists
Biden will likely have senate and house, but what they decide to do?No idea
Then what SCOTUS decides to do, I also have no idea
But with so much uncertainty, the pref prices need to be a lot lower for my taste
FFF, yes, that is a really big question -- why has nothing been done? Treasury could have rescinded NWS and agreed to pay back overpayment that would in effect have settled all the suits AT ANY TIME IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS (and Judge Sweeney has now sealed that it is all...)
Something really does not smell right.
Gaby from ACG says why would they come all the way to the finish line and not jump over (presumably after election in Nov)?
But looking at it from the perspective you set-up, did the Trump administration even start the race let alone get to the finish line? leave aside Calabria at FHFA who is his own boss -- aside from the WH housing "plan", what has Treasury done aside from continue to fight court cases to higher and higher courts?
Treasury and WH have not started the race imho, so the idea of jumping over finishing lines (in a pandemic and recession and after huge electoral rejection it seems) would be pretty surprising...
The pref prices are bleeding lower, as I suspected, after the buying around SCOTUS taking case. I think it continues to bleed, possibly heavily as Trump loss, and senate turnover, get baked into poll numbers.
(BTW You say Trump is a great marketer, but this is the worst re-election campaign I have ever seen -- the refusal to take leadership in the pandemic, let alone trying to deny it and the mask fiasco, have been self inflicted (fatal?) wounds... Trully bizarre... Mark Meadows is apparently a useless politician...)
The pref holders are way too confident imho
There is a correction coming and maybe it arrives in the Fall along with the recession - big risk conditions may not be right for admin action
On court side, Treasury looks like it wants to exhaust its court options - and who knows how SCOTUS rules?
I think risks are higher here than pref prices reflect and I think prices come down once it is clear Trump will lose and the senate too... and bad economic numbers start weighing...
Not sure I want back in here
Begs the question whether WH has a strategy or just lurching through - like the pandemic “strategy”?
Treasury may have plans - but does the WH?
No way the settle prior to election since election risk is verboten for WH & WH makes all the final decisions... Rosner can fantasize all he wants...
Trump and Mnuchin are business killers? Pleeeease... lol
Bloomberg would be cool...